ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor

The Coalition gets a better federal voting intention result from ReachTEL, although the result would be more typical of recent polling of preferences are applied as per the 2016 election result.

A new ReachTEL poll for Sky News records one of the better results for the Coalition of recent times, at least on the headline two-party figure of 51-49 to Labor, which compares with 52-48 in the last such poll three weeks ago. However, the primary vote numbers currently available suggest a Labor lead of at least 53-47 if preferences from the 2016 election are applied. Those numbers are Coalition 33%, Labor 34%, Greens 8%, One Nation 11% and others 6%, with 9% undecided. A follow-up question will have prompted the undecided for a forced response, but we don’t have those numbers at this stage. If the undecided are excluded from the result as published, the primary votes are Coalition 36%, Labor 37%, Greens 9% and One Nation 12%, which plays out as 53.3-46.7 on previous election preferences if those from parties other than the Greens are treated the same way.

The poll also finds Malcolm Turnbull leading 54.5-45.5 on preferred prime minister, compared with 54.1-45.9 last time; Malcolm Turnbull’s performance rated as very good or good by 29% (up two) and poor or very poor by 37% (up half a point); and Bill Shorten rated very good or good by 28% (up two) and poor or very poor by 40% (up one). Power and gas prices were named as the biggest contributor to rising living costs, compared with 16% for groceries, 11% for health services, 6% for public transport and 5% for petrol; 75% favouring government support for renewable energy over coal; and 47% supporting a change to the Constitution to create an indigenous advisory body, with 29% opposed. The poll was conducted last night, from a sample presumably around 2300.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,009 comments on “ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Trump Regrets is a great twitter account to follow. It retweets Trump voters who now regret their vote and realise they were lied to and / or that Trump is incompetent or a demagogue. It’s good for ones sanity to read through them.

  5. Confessions
    Saturday, July 22, 2017 at 3:42 pm
    Briefly:

    He seems to be able to walk both sides of the street, having campaigned for Obama and the Clintons as well as Romney and Jeb Bush before hitching his wagon to Trump.

  6. Briefly,

    I’m crossing my fingers for the scenario that damages the Republicans to the maximum extent possible and eIther bangs some reality into the brains of Trump voters or convinces them to climb back into their holes.

    I’m curious to know what that scenario might look like.

  8. Briefly:

    My take on him is that he’ll follow the prevailing winds wherever they go if they lead him to power, money and authority.

    Total sell out.

  9. Cud Chewer
    Saturday, July 22, 2017 at 3:53 pm

    Me too, CC.

    If incontrovertible evidence is produced showing that Trump has committed a serious crime or breach of US security, then the Republicans would be bound to act. Til then, the chaos will continue. The Republicans will be badly harmed by it and the Democrats will try to spin it out as long as possible. Meantime, the institutions of the state will be grinding away, trying expunge Trump from their tissues.

  11. BC

    Saw a poll the other day which surveyed people who had voted for Trump – one in eight said they would not do so again. And he’s only six months in…

    Also switched on to an American news bulletin during my elevenses. I only watched about ten minutes of it, but it was wall to wall Republican House members saying wtte of “If Trump does this, I’m walking…” — and that was on SKY.

  13. Zoomster
    Also switched on to an American news bulletin during my elevenses. I only watched about ten minutes of it, but it was wall to wall Republican House members saying wtte of “If Trump does this, I’m walking…” — and that was on SKY.

    Then he’s virtually paralysed. That will drive him to distraction. What an amazing spectacle.

  14. The state’s investigative, security and justice agencies can be likened to an immune system. A foreign, possibly dangerous body has gained entry to the organism. It must be surrounded, isolated, destroyed and removed. This is an autonomic process. It will be associated with febrile writhing and groans and appeals for palliation. But it will have just one conclusion – the rejection of the intruding particles.

  16. briefly Saturday, July 22, 2017 at 4:09 pm
    Zoomster
    Also switched on to an American news bulletin during my elevenses. I only watched about ten minutes of it, but it was wall to wall Republican House members saying wtte of “If Trump does this, I’m walking…” — and that was on SKY.

    Then he’s virtually paralysed. That will drive him to distraction. What an amazing spectacle.

    **************************************
    It is rumoured, Briefly, that Trump HATES the job and wishes he was out of it all but does not want to be seen as a quitter by resigning ……. and all his kids are basically telling him to quit as it is ruining each of their lives too with all their financial endeavours being now spotlighted and getting negative publicity …

  17. It is rumoured, Briefly, that Trump HATES the job and wishes he was out of it all but does not want to be seen as a quitter by resigning ……. and all his kids are basically telling him to quit as it is ruining each of their lives too with all their financial endeavours being now spotlighted and getting negative publicity …

    Life was so much easier for Donald Trump when he was simply a High Plains Grifter. 🙂

  18. Of course Trump wants to quit. He finally has someone holding his job performance to account (the American people) and his hubris has come face to face with the fact that he is quite simply untalented as an administrator. Usually this is something people would learn younger and cause them to identify areas in which they can improve and it would drive them to work harder and better themselves, but not when you are all but born into being a CEO. The Trump story is truly a tale about the dangers of privelige and inherited wealth.

  19. Of course Trump wants to quit. He finally has someone holding his job performance to account (the American people) and his hubris has come face to face with the fact that he is quite simply untalented as an administrator. Usually this is something people would learn younger and cause them to identify areas in which they can improve and it would drive them to work harder and better themselves, but not when you are all but born into being a CEO. The Trump story is truly a tale about the dangers of privelige and inherited wealth.

  23. I remember tuning in to one of Trump’s rallies. He didn’t seem at all interested in what he was doing, just going through the motions. When a chant of “Drain the Swamp!” started up, at first he looked a bit put out, and then he joined in in a very “Oh well, if this is what they want, let’s get it over with” kind of fashion.

  24. Has anyone asked Scaramucci yet if he does the fandango? 😉

    The first verse could have almost been written for him:

    Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy?
    Caught in a landslide, no escape from reality
    Open your eyes, look up to the skies and see
    I’m just a poor boy, I need no sympathy
    Because I’m easy come, easy go, little high, little low
    Any way the wind blows doesn’t really matter to me, to me

    🙂

  25. Graft versus Host Disease (GvHD) is a nasty complication of bone marrow allotransplantation, with which I am all to familiar in my day job. Essentially it is the immune system rejecting the body in situ – giving rise to particularly nasty skin, pleural and pericardial disease. It strikes me that Trump is a virulent example of GvHD for the GOP. GOP vs Trump Disease will be lethal for both.

  27. C@tmomma Saturday, July 22, 2017 at 4:27 pm

    It is rumoured, Briefly, that Trump HATES the job and wishes he was out of it all but does not want to be seen as a quitter by resigning ……. and all his kids are basically telling him to quit as it is ruining each of their lives too with all their financial endeavours being now spotlighted and getting negative publicity …

    Life was so much easier for Donald Trump when he was simply a High Plains Grifter.

    ***********************************

    You got it in one, C@tmomma ……. the days of wining and dining and flogging off properties to Russian oligarchs for ridiculous sums of money, getting half a million dollars investments for visa’s from Chinese businessmen, getting dodgy loans to build more casinos to launder money through ……. oh and grabbing p*******s when you feel like it …. all seem long lost easy pleasures to actually being in the national spotlight and having to actually run a country and being accountable for your actions …… no wonder he HATES being POTUS ( Piece Of Totally Useless Shit )

  28. Phoenix Red,
    P.O.T.U.S. 😆

    The guy is touchy about his Tax returns as well. I think that’s the biggest lie he spun during the campaign, that he was under Audit. Yeah right. When the truth of the matter is that he knew that if people viewed his tax returns his campaign would sink like a stone and there would be no spin curly enough to explain away what they contained.

  32. That’s why he still has the support of many Americans who voted for him. They have different aspects of his sleaze that they are prepared to tolerate, even support, so that the quid pro quo is something not quite kosher that they believe in being allowed or tolerated by him.

    However, one thing Americans are, by and large, if we cast our minds back to George W. Bush, is patriotic. So if they found out that the guy they elected President of the United States had no compunction in selling their country out from under them to the highest bidder, especially when those buyers are the Russians and the Chinese, who they have been traditionally conditioned to despise (remember Obama’s ‘Tsars’?), then that might just be the bridge too far for them.

    Though with the Opioid epidemic rotting the brains of those who voted for him, that bridge might be too far for them to get to. Better to stay at home and fill what’s left of your brain with Faux News.

  33. Cud Chewer,
    Anthony Scaramucci also seems like the epitome of a Wide Boy! Exactly how the American people are supposed to have faith in the integrity of Trump’s communications strategy and talking points, with that guy at the helm, is beyond me! However we are living through strange times, where what we held to be true, no longer seems to hold true any more. Democracy seems to be coming apart at the seams before our very eyes.

  37. C@tmomma Saturday, July 22, 2017 at 4:52 pm
    Phoenix Red,

    The guy is touchy about his Tax returns as well. I think that’s the biggest lie he spun during the campaign, that he was under Audit. Yeah right. When the truth of the matter is that he knew that if people viewed his tax returns his campaign would sink like a stone and there would be no spin curly enough to explain away what they contained.

    **********************************************
    I have always believed it is what Trump & Family did BEFORE he became President that will bring him/them all down. Once NY AG Eric Schneiderman is finished exposing their financial records and processes of turning over money/mob association/racketeering ( RICO ) then they will all be – if rumours of his passion happen to convict – be penniless and behind bars

  38. confessions

    My take on him is that he’ll follow the prevailing winds wherever they go if they lead him to power, money and authority.

    Total sell out.

    Are you referring to Malcolm?

  40. Al Pal @ 4.56

    Nah. We enjoy the saga….the bad guy loses in the end….hollywood could not have written the story better

  42. Tom Hawkins Saturday, July 22, 2017 at 5:16 pm
    confessions
    “My take on him is that he’ll follow the prevailing winds wherever they go if they lead him to power, money and authority.”
    “Total sell out.”

    Are you referring to Malcolm?

    **********************************************

    Good Point , Tom !!!!

    Trump and Turnbull are tarred by the same brush – both being inherited wealth guys – never done an honest days work in their life – and are the same flim-flam snake-oil charlatans – promising the earth but delivering nothing – the Jonestown Jim Joneses of 2017

  43. Phoenix Red,
    My bet is that Trump will just keep on Presidenting while NY tries to take him out through the courts. He’ll just put a team of lawyers onto the job of defending him. Even if he’s convicted, no one can touch him until he stops being President, and who knows what he might lay down as the law in the meantime?

  45. Trump may wanna quit. But he can’t. Too many crimes have been committed. If he and his cronies quit now, some at least will end up in prison. So he’s doomed to play on. Suurender is not an option.

  46. I have been trying to post the address for Greasyfork.
    Sadly Crikey has turned sour and rejects my blandishments.
    C@tmomma was right, of course – just do a search for Greasyfork and search within for Musrum which then show both CCCP and STFU.
    Fingers crossed.

  47. Trump and Turnbull are tarred by the same brush

    Scaramucci is yet another former Goldman Sachs shill to join the Trump administration – how many is that in his administration btw?

  48. Briefly
    Trump may wanna quit. But he can’t. Too many crimes have been committed

    And he forfeits the pardon privilege.

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