BludgerTrack: 53.0-47.0 to Labor

A bit of a fillip for Labor in the latest reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, and also for Bill Shorten whose net approval rating has edged ahead of Malcolm Turnbull’s.

There’s a fair bit going on under the hood in BludgerTrack this week, which is why it’s taken so long. The bias adjustments and weightings have been recalibrated, and I’ve brought the two results so far from YouGov into the model. I’m not sure which of these is responsible, or whether it’s just because of two strong results for Labor from Newspoll and Essential, but there’s been a fairly noticeable bump to Labor on two-party preferred along with a net gain of two on the seat projection, with one gain in apiece in New South Wales, Queensland and South Australia balanced by a loss in Western Australia. A drought on leadership ratings has also ended with two sets of results from Newspoll and Essential, the effect of which is that Bill Shorten has now poked ahead of Malcolm Turnbull on net approval, though not preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

444 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.0-47.0 to Labor”

Comments Page 6 of 9
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  1. Confessions

    [ What will happen when we move to page 6…. ]

    All the electrons on pages 1 to 5 will get recycled. This is obviously William’s take on the the renewable energy debate!

  3. Then posting on page 5 returns me to where I was on page 5. Perfect. But is this at the price of the refresh issue?

  6. Whatever was posted on page 5 is now ancient history. No need to go back, we must look forever to the future.

  8. CTaR1
    I’m thinking that there is material for several Dr Who episodes using the Crikey Gerbils as the main focus.
    One episode could consist of viewers being trapped in endless in loops of the first five minutes of the real episode.
    Another episode could consist of viewers watching page 5 for 50 minutes.
    The wheeooo music would be a fantastic soundtrack while Trog and P1 do an infinite cage fight that only stops when their cage gets sucked into a black hole.
    Another episode could involve William condemning some malfeasant to the Crikey Cosmic Wormhole.

  9. PB at the moment is like a lift that randomly goes to various floors except the one you want. I’ve been on a lift like that and it’s quite scary.

  13. Boerwar
    “The wheeooo music would be a fantastic soundtrack while Trog and P1 do an infinite cage fight that only stops when their cage gets sucked into a black hole.”
    Black holes are a very efficient source of power. Much better than nuclear. And they emit no C02!

  15. ‘Spose I’d better do a test too. Wonder if this will flip me back to the days of Palmer and my being Harry “Snapper” Organs?

  17. When I saw a photo of Malcolm’s press conference, I thought that a band of terrorists had kidnapped him and were holding him to ransom. What an idiot. Does he really think that will win him votes? My God.

  22. Using Windows 10 and Firefox.
    Reset Windows. Had to log back in to Crikey and on to Poll Bludgers.
    Everything works again, all pages visible.
    ☕

  23. ab11
    On Jon Faine’s Conversation Hour, he had Christine Nixon on, previous Police Commish. She said cooperation between the police and military already happens.
    Blessed if I know what the new legislation will achieve. Would it achieve Brandis’ dept. actually passing on the letter from Lindt Cafe crazy man, for instance?
    Don’t suppose you can legislate for competence though.

  24. Zoomster

    You got me out of lurking. Such a put down of woman would rightly be condemned.

    Take the point. I am allowed to be disappointed on a casting decision. Its not sexism.

    Sexism is saying don’t have the woman play the role.
    Stop trying to make out I am being unreasonable when thats what you are doing.

    Again I applauded the fact a woman got the role.

    FYI. Here is why the BBC may have made the decision it did instead of doing what Barney suggested.

    http://www.sbs.com.au/topics/sexuality/fast-lane/article/2017/07/17/bbc-received-complaints-show-had-too-many-gay-characters

  25. SK
    Amber Harrison is subject to the gag order so no her story is not for publication.
    Maybe she is an opportunist but the plague of wealthy older males preying on young women must create enduring effects when it goes sour. The she seeks help from flashy lawyers who disappear when it all becomes troublesome.

  26. Wth does THIS mean!?!

    The Immigration Department will lose responsibility for border protection and instead concentrate on issues such as integration and citizenship.

    Assimilation for the 21st Century Australia!?!

  27. The match up to savour on tonight’s Q&A: Terri Butler v Matt Canavan.
    I expect Butler to tear strips off him on climate change in particular
    given a chance.

  28. Seems to explain recent events both here and in the US …
    From http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20170418-how-western-civilisation-could-collapse …

    Also paralleling Rome, Homer-Dixon predicts that Western societies’ collapse will be preceded by a retraction of people and resources back to their core homelands. As poorer nations continue to disintegrate amid conflicts and natural disasters, enormous waves of migrants will stream out of failing regions, seeking refuge in more stable states. Western societies will respond with restrictions and even bans on immigration; multi-billion dollar walls and border-patrolling drones and troops; heightened security on who and what gets in; and more authoritarian, populist styles of governing.

  30. Doing a quick google search of images showing Abbott, Trump and Kim Jong-un with troops, I can’t find any that match Turnbull’s outlandish effort today. Trump and Kim generally have images of troops on parade or doing ceremonial duties, while Abbott seemed to like happy snaps with the troops.

    Turnbull has made a serious miscalculation about the impression he is trying to create.

  32. Player One
    Monday, July 17, 2017 at 4:57 pm

    Climate change is the greatest threat to the existing economic, social and political order… (let’s not call it civilisation).

  33. There are two ways to count to ten using the Gerbil Turnbull system of mathmatical numbers:
    5, 5, 5, 5, 5…
    1,2,3,4,6,7,8,9,10.

  34. B
    The farmers are already finding it difficult to attract the same number and quality of temps that do most of the work in the food industries.
    Not helping, apparently, are the reports of migrant bashing that make their way back into the newspapers and social media of the labour source countries.
    British farmers may face the triple prospects of a drop in subsidies, a tariff wall of up to 30% and more expensive labour.
    It is almost inevitable this trifecta would translate into more expensive food for consumers.

  37. I liked that the first post on page 1 was “A new dawn, a new day.”

    It made the whole affair feel like I was stuck in some sort of groundhog day loop, rather than the much more terrifying ‘PollBludger being down’ worst case scenario.

    Of course, I may now have done some things that were unwise to do when not caught in an infinite loop of groundhog days.

  39. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/17/brexit-talks-round-two-european-court-of-justice-looms-large

    On Sunday, the former Tory chair Chris Patten warned that the Brexit deadlock represented one of the bleakest moments in British postwar history. “I think it’s the worst time since Suez, though maybe even worse than that because Suez was the end of an era, the end of our colonial aspirations,” he told ITV’s Peston on Sunday,

    “The European Union was our replacement for that colonial role, and thanks to the calamitous errors of two Conservative prime ministers in a row, who thought they could manage the unmanageable – the English nationalist right wing of the Conservative party – we’re in this hell of a mess.”

    RW nationalists…invariably deliver chaos. The LNP have forgotten this, to their cost and to the detriment of the country.

  40. So Trumble’s gonna fold and give the Dixon Sebago his militia.

    Disgusting spineless grub he is. Such a pissweak worm.

  41. “http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20170418-how-western-civilisation-could-collapse ”
    From the article:
    “It was fiscal weakness, not war, that did the Empire in.”

    Sort of – but that’s a huge oversimplification.
    The Roman bureaucracy was expanded by the Emperor Diocletian in the late 3rd century, to ensure that wealthy Roman citizens paid their fair share of tax. This was so the empire could fund a decent army, and defend itself. That was the intention of Diocletian, himself of humble (peasant) origins. In the late 3rd and 4th century, his policy worked – the empire stabilised and averted collapse.
    However, over time, the rich shirked their tax obligations, and the burden of taxation increasingly fell on the poor. Tax revenues dried up, especially in the more agrarian western half of the empire. The western Roman empire was unable to defend itself from continued Germanic incursions, and dissolved in the late 5th century.
    But the eastern half of the Roman empire lived on (as the Byzantine empire, centred on Constantinople), despite its highly complex bureaucracy. It was able to maintain its tax base, and therefore fund a highly capable military. The empire even expanded in the 6th century, recapturing some of its lost territory.

  42. Boerwar
    Monday, July 17, 2017 at 5:19 pm
    B

    The RW Tories manage to combine reactionary instincts with romantic forgetfulness. They are really unfit to serve.

  44. Thanks B – I’ll be sure to read it. Off the top of my head, the civil wars under Theodosius I were especially damaging, following so soon after the Gothic wars.

  45. I see Murdoch’s UK shit-sheet (you know the one who’s reporters hacked the mobile phone of a murdered school-girl) are setting their usual tone in welcoming the new Dr Who with pictures of her sans clothes..

    DOCT-HER WHO Jodie Whittaker makes history as Doctor Who’s first female Time Lord – but Broadchurch star has a much less family-friendly career

    ..won’t provide link..

  46. So a deranged loner at the Lindt Cafe, a less than perfect effort by NSW police and a terrible run of polls for Turnbull have led to the creation of a dangerous Potatocracy!

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