There’s a fair bit going on under the hood in BludgerTrack this week, which is why it’s taken so long. The bias adjustments and weightings have been recalibrated, and I’ve brought the two results so far from YouGov into the model. I’m not sure which of these is responsible, or whether it’s just because of two strong results for Labor from Newspoll and Essential, but there’s been a fairly noticeable bump to Labor on two-party preferred along with a net gain of two on the seat projection, with one gain in apiece in New South Wales, Queensland and South Australia balanced by a loss in Western Australia. A drought on leadership ratings has also ended with two sets of results from Newspoll and Essential, the effect of which is that Bill Shorten has now poked ahead of Malcolm Turnbull on net approval, though not preferred prime minister.
A new dawn, a new day.
Lizzie …. annnd a new ‘fred”
Top Investigator Says They Have Black And White Evidence Of Trump Intent To Collude With Russia
Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) called Donald Trump Jr.’s emails clear evidence of the Trump campaign’s desire to collude with Russia during an interview on ABC’s This Week.
The Trump Jr. emails give investigators two vital pieces of information if they are going to prove that a crime was committed. The emails provide the motive, which was to get dirt on Hillary Clinton, and by taking the meeting, the Trump campaign demonstrated that they intended to collude with Russia.
http://www.politicususa.com/2017/07/16/top-investigator-black-white-evidence-trump-intent-collude-russia.html
I’m suspicious of the ALP 2PP in Queensland given how rocky things seem for the Palaszczuk Government, the things aren’t perfectly correlated but you usually get some blowback.
I also expect a bit of hammering on the Green vote over the next few polls, between the awful handling of Rhiannon, you don’t roar like a tiger then backdown straight away it pleases no one, and the loss of Ludlam (will be interesting to see what happens with his “portfolios”, he was one of the better performers in Parliament let alone the Greens alone in many of those areas. Though that may make things easier, it’s simply not possible so many people are so technologically inept, so some of the idiocy is likely for the sake of party room positions, which means there won’t be any real competition. )
Red Hat Wearing MAGA Shouting Trump Supporters Conned Into Paying For Trump Jr.’s Lawyer
New financial disclosure forms reveal that the Trump campaign used donor money to pay the retainer for Trump Jr.’s lawyer before The New York Times published their bombshell story.
It was all a big con. Only a sucker would give money to Donald Trump and expect it to go for its stated purpose. The old proverb that a fool and his money are soon parted has never been truer than when looking at the financial relationship between Donald Trump and his supporters
http://www.politicususa.com/2017/07/16/red-hat-wearing-maga-shouting-trump-supporters-conned-paying-trump-jr-s-lawyer.html
Made In America Week Falls Apart For Trump After Reporter Asks About Ivanka Trump Clothing
A White House spokesperson was touting Trump’s upcoming “Made In America” week, but when a reporter asked about Ivanka Trump’s made overseas clothing line, the White House clammed up and said, “We’ll get back to you on that.”
Trump is setting himself up for ridicule on a daily basis. This president lacks any sense of decency and self-awareness. Made In America week is already a total disaster because Donald Trump doesn’t expect people to point out that he and his kids don’t actually make their products in America.
http://www.politicususa.com/2017/07/16/america-week-falls-trump-reporter-asks-ivanka-trump-clothing.html
Donald Trump’s lawyer scapegoats Secret Service, giving away that Trump was probably at Russia meeting
By Bill Palmer
Donald Trump’s bumbling lawyer Jay Sekulow appeared on live national television today and tried making the argument that if Donald Trump Jr. had been doing anything illegal in his meeting with the Kremlin, the Secret Service would have stepped in and stopped it. That’s a nonsensical argument on just about every level – most of all because Donald Trump Jr. didn’t have Secret Service protection that early on in the election. In fact only one person in the Trump campaign did.
That’s right, Donald Trump’s lawyer probably just gave away that Donald Trump himself was indeed in attendance at his son’s Russia collusion meeting. Think about how Trump and his lawyer would have come up with this new and weird defense. They’d have been brainstorming, and Trump would have mentioned that when he was in the meeting, his Secret Service agents didn’t try to stop it. And then Trump’s lawyer, not being particularly smart about things, would have said “There’s our defense. We’ll just say that the Secret Service didn’t intervene.”
Again, the only possible way the Secret Service could have been in attendance at this Russia meeting is if Donald Trump himself was also in attendance. So the fact that Trump’s lawyer has invoked them is a giveaway that Trump probably was at that meeting. Now we just have to follow that trail and prove it.
Thanks William, the track ‘feels’ right after the Essential and Newspoll results.
The coalition are now down 9 seats in Queensland.
They might need to propose a second coal fired power station.
In the SMH today, push back against the Carmichael mine from NSW:
Subsidised mines would be a $10 billion long-term hit to NSW budget
Subsidies for new coal mines in Queensland’s Galilee Basin will have “devastating consequences” for NSW coal industry.
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/subsidised-queensland-coal-mines-would-be-a-10-billion-hit-to-nsw-budget-20170716-gxccq3.html?btis
Perhaps the Murdoch droogs have gone too far in blowing smoke up Tony Abbott’s budgie smugglers? Today’s SmearStralian is groaning with ‘patch it up, fellas’ articles. Perhaps Macolm’s sojourn in England included a catch up with the Dirty Digger?
Telling commentary by ex-SmearStralian editor and Murdoch favourite Chris Mitchell. Jump the paywall for this one. A snippet:
“Abbott’s public support is more limited and always has been. Despite very strong appeal to older, conservative Australians, he would most likely drag his party’s vote down, and only damage his own reputation and the country by helping to elect a wildly populist Bill Shorten Labor government.
Some conservatives have suggested Queensland-based Immigration Minister Peter Dutton to topple Turnbull but he has very low recognition in the polling and would seem unlikely to win a majority in his party room. A strong media performer with views on immigration that have proven popular with voters, the Dutton I have known since my time as editor in chief of Queensland Newspapers seems to me an unlikely candidate to volunteer for electoral suicide.
Then there is perennial No 2 Julie Bishop who is suited to foreign affairs but was a disaster in opposition as spokeswoman on Treasury matters. Bishop is a wily media operator but hard heads in the party, and especially on the conservative wing, are often more hostile to her than to Turnbull.
All this is sad for the country and for the Coalition. For the media, it is seminal. The latest Abbott destabilisation campaign marks an entirely new level of political involvement by people ostensibly employed as journalists. Many of the Turnbull critics listed above have been viciously contemptuous of the Member for Wentworth in a way once reserved for little-read blogs or Twitter rather than the mainstream media.
BuzzFeed political editor Mark Di Stefano wrote a strong piece last week on the “Foxification” of Sky News, pointing out the network’s nightly commentary programming has adopted the style of Fox News since it was taken over in full by News Corp Australia.
For news junkies the schedule of Andrew Bolt at 7pm, Paul Murray for two hours at 9pm and Chris Kenny at 11pm is compelling.
Yet even the hosts would admit this is partisan television in a way unmatched in Australian media history. There is no pretence of journalistic even-handedness and Credlin, particularly, is proud to talk about “we” and “us” when discussing the Coalition. Conservatives who have long complained of the left leanings of the national broadcaster are fed a diet of right-wing raw meat each night that even many long-term Coalition voters find hard-edged.”
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/media/opinion/another-sad-chapter-of-leadership-instability-for-the-country/news-story/114a0f7671fe1e6852be398dbe69d5d0
It was very pleasant to indulge in an evening of reminiscence. Thanks to the bludgers with long memories. 🙂
Secret Service smacks down Trump lawyer: Russia meeting was never cleared with us
The Secret Service hit back at an attempt by President Donald Trump’s attorney Jay Sekulow to blame them for the meeting Donald Trump Jr. and key members of the Trump 2016 campaign staff took with Kremlin-aligned lawyer Natalia Veselnitskaya and a Russian-born lobbyist.
The issued a statement to Reuters that said, “Donald Trump, Jr. was not a protectee of the USSS in June, 2016. Thus we would not have screened anyone he was meeting with at that time.”
The Secret Service does not protect the families of presidential candidates, but only assigns a detail to the candidate themselves within 120 days of a general election.
http://www.rawstory.com/2017/07/secret-service-smacks-down-trump-lawyer-russian-meeting-was-never-cleared-with-us/
Morning all
Trump and his acolytes blame everyone and anyone for their actions. Of course, this doesn’t extend to Putin and his cronies. Funny that!
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
The Australian is full of the Liberal infighting and Murdochian desperation. Here is a sample to Google.
/national-affairs/greiner-warning-end-civil-war-or-libs-will-lose/news-story/cd2692ba2e3fbb950b95f376387af59b
Paul Kelly says it’s time for a showdown between Turnbull and Abbott to sort out their “poisonous differences”. Google.
/opinion/columnists/paul-kelly/greiner-is-right-poison-at-heart-of-the-party-must-end/news-story/62ac5b9780eaaadd45492e0697646ec0
A “lonely” Barnaby Joyce says he does not consider Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull a close friend and believes Tony Abbott is “talking to himself” and should stop. Google.
/national-affairs/im-not-a-close-friend-of-turnbull-says-barnaby-joyce/news-story/61078db97962198213ad1eebb6490b5e
Greg Sheridan begins his article with “Watch out Malcolm Turnbull and all eastern state Liberal Party leaders — Cory Bernardi is coming hunting for your members and your voters.” Google.
/opinion/columnists/greg-sheridan/bernardi-continues-to-build-his-national-membership-power-base/news-story/fc1c565e936ffb36e673ad4f0eae73c1
Maurice Newman says you can’t vote for these Libs and that their future is in Abbott’s conservative hands. Google.
/opinion/liberal-partys-future-may-rest-in-conservative-hands-of-tony-abbott/news-story/5f3e07588098eb212ed2ceb27db93827
Deputy Liberal leader Julie (Lady Macbeth) Bishop has craftily dodged admitting whether or not she has ambitions to one day be prime minister, after a poll found voters favoured her as Liberal leader over Malcolm Turnbull.
http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/07/16/julie-bishop-popular-turnbull-poll/
Urban Wronski on Turnbull’s latest epic failure of judgement.
https://urbanwronski.com/2017/07/16/turnbull-tries-on-menzies-mantle-in-another-epic-failure-of-judgement/
The military will be given sweeping powers to deploy forces and even take charge during terrorist attacks under changes to Australia’s national security laws. Potatohead will be salivating!
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australian-army-to-be-deployed-on-domestic-soil-during-future-terrorist-attacks-20170716-gxc7gu.html
Looks like Monday morning commuters on the Manly ferry dodged a bullet when that guy caught the mako.
Section 2 . . .
Ross Gittins writes that teaching is too important to leave to teachers.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/pisa-and-naplan-test-results-reveal-worsening-school-performance-20170716-gxc3tb.html
In reality PaTH is the devaluing of young people, and the creation of a second class of workers, paid well below minimum wage and only valuable to business as long as the government keeps footing the bill. Surely this program will end in tears.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/new-internship-program-once-again-devalues-the-work-of-young-people-20170713-gxakto.html
Deloitte thinks that we are sitting on a “powder keg” housing market that is spooking the RBA from getting interest rates back up. Google.
/news/economy/deloitte-says-rates-wont-rise-until-2018-amid-powder-keg-property-market-20170714-gxb9gx
Vacant housing rates are rising in our major cities. Across Australia on census night, 11.2% of housing was recorded as unoccupied – a total of 1,089,165 dwellings. With housing affordability stress also intensifying, the moment for a push on empty property taxes looks to have arrived.
https://theconversation.com/taxing-empty-homes-a-step-towards-affordable-housing-but-much-more-can-be-done-80742
I take my hat off to these Tasmanians.
http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/good-news/2017/07/16/tasmanian-hobbyists-think-outside-the-box-by-making-their-own-coffins/
Amanda Vanstone writes that nostalgia is a potent motivator. Blended with stupidity it’s a nightmare.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/liberal-or-labor-youre-probably-sitting-comfortably-in-the-sensible-centre-20170715-gxbuk5.html
George Williams writes that momentum is building to legalise voluntary euthanasia in Australia and that the debate is about to reignite. The passage of a state voluntary euthanasia law will lead church groups and other opponents to call for national intervention but constitutional law is not too clear in this regard.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/battle-over-voluntary-euthanasia-about-to-reignite-20170715-gxbvjw.html
Meanwhile the case of a terminally ill former lecturer will come before the high court this week in the first substantial legal challenge to the UK’s ban on assisted dying.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/jul/16/terminally-ill-man-challenges-uks-ban-on-assisted-dying-at-high-court
Jennifer Hewitt says that Josh Frydenberg is about to find out what’s politically affordable on power. Google.
/opinion/columnists/josh-frydenberg-is-about-to-find-out-whats-politically-affordable-on-power-20170716-gxc5qi
And Jackson Stiles writes that the insanity of Coalition conservatives on energy policy continues to hurtle the nation towards more blackouts and hugely expensive power bills.
http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2017/07/14/energy-crisis-gas/
Section 3 . . .
Adam Gartrell writes that state governments would reclaim their constitutional powers over income tax and introduce public hospital co-payments to free themselves from the “financial blight” of Medicare, under a think tank’s radical plan for federation reform.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/state-income-taxes-and-hospital-copayments-proposed-to-tackle-medicare-blight-20170715-gxc3ei.html
Hostilities have broken out over a meeting to debate an overhaul of NSW Liberal Party preselection rules, with supporters of a reform backed by former prime minister Tony Abbott accused of attempting to “stack” the event. Let the festivities begin!
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/tony-abbott-backers-accused-of-trying-to-stack-nsw-liberal-convention-20170716-gxc8dn.html
Nick Greiner pines for the Howard era. Sorry Nick, it’s passed us by.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/tony-abbott-backers-accused-of-trying-to-stack-nsw-liberal-convention-20170716-gxc8dn.html
Who are the true victims in the AFL sexual conduct PR disaster?
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/afl-sex-claim-revelations-are-a-pr-disaster-but-who-are-the-true-victims-20170715-gxbwbm.html
Greg Jericho says that the Australian cricket dispute is a wonderful advertisement for joining a union.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2017/jul/16/australian-crickets-pay-dispute-is-a-wonderful-ad-for-joining-a-union
The Yanks are too dumb to understand this.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/health/secondbest-in-the-world-no-guarantee-of-an-equitable-healthcare-system-20170715-gxc3ja.html
Trump’s unpopularity continues to rise and, of course, it’s all the media’s fault.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/with-approval-rating-falling-further-trump-blames-media-for-distorting-democracy-20170716-gxcga0.html
And right on cue Trump lets fly in a new Twitter storm at the “Fake News” media.
http://www.theage.com.au/world/trump-accuses-media-of-distorting-democracy-in-morning-twitter-post-20170716-gxcfhi.html
Nine signs that Brexit isn’t going too well.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/07/16/9-signs-brexit-isnt-quite-going-as-planned_a_23032443/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage
Section 4 . . . with Cartoon Corner
The Liberal National party state conference in Queensland has overwhelmingly voted against a limited Muslim immigration ban but has voted to call for headscarves to be banned for young children.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/jul/16/liberal-national-party-conference-calls-for-ban-on-headscarves-for-children-under-10
Leaked secret defence force documents give a chilling insight into the corruption wrought on individuals by endless war.
https://independentaustralia.net/article-display/afghan-files-expose-corruption-of-war,10508
A tremendous effort from Matt Golding gives us the new Liberal executive toy.
Andrew Dyson with the Menzies tradition.
Road rage with Matt Golding.
Reg Leahy has Trump meeting his match.
Another great bit of work from David Rowe.
Pat Clement with Peta and Tony.
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/96d55c3b8963038daf525f8289547485
https://urbanwronski.com/2017/07/16/turnbull-tries-on-menzies-mantle-in-another-epic-failure-of-judgement/
Sprocket_
So the editor of The Australian is complaining about overtly partisanship by reporters ? Well I suppose we should listen to the experts. Who would know more about blatant partisan journalism than a Mordor Media manager ?
Morning all and thank again PhoenixRed and BK for today’s round up.
I also enjoyed the reminiscing last night, remembering all those who had come and gone over the years.
‘This is why teaching is a problem too important to be left to teachers. The more so because some teachers – a minority, I trust – have become hyper-defensive, refusing to acknowledge there’s a problem, telling themselves that, if there is a problem, it’s everybody’s fault bar their profession’s, and branding any non-teacher who dares to offer an opinion a “teacher-basher”.’
The irony of this is that this is all Gittins’ article is – teacher bashing. He doesn’t offer any way forward, let alone suggest who should be in charge of the ‘problem’.
In my experience (which is, in this instance, purely Victorian) the best educational gains were made when teachers were in charge of decision making. Over the last thirty years, ‘teacher bashing’ saw teachers’ role in decision making at both school and government levels diminished, and power handed over to parents (which effectively meant school principals, which effectively meant Education Department bureaucrats, whose focus was on saving money).
Gonski (Mark 1; I assume Mark 2 as well) didn’t hand over money for nothing. Programs had to be evaluated for effectiveness and effective programs were to be extended to other schools and systems.
But we don’t even have to look to Gonski. If we don’t trust teachers to be professionals who care about educational standards, there is a huge amount of international research which tells us how to get the ‘productivity’ gains Gittins is on about – and NAPLAN results support these findings.
1. Educate prospective parents. You can throw a fortune at a child born with preventable brain damage due to Foetal Alcohol syndrome or lack of folic acid and never ‘improve’ them – whereas a little education of their parents would have prevented the problem to begin with. A child born to parents with no understanding of nutrition is behind the eight ball developmentally to begin with. A child whose parents can’t read children books or doesn’t understand the importance of reading to their children not only won’t read to them but will model the concept that reading isn’t important.
The best indicators of children’s academic performance are having a parent at home for a significant amount of time in their preschool years, having a high birthweight, and growing up in a house filled with books.
So focussing money and resources at pre school children – the earlier the better – has multiple benefits.
At present, we do this backwards. We wait until the child has been at school for at least a couple of years, and they’re already behind. Then we start to give them a little extra attention. We wait, however, until secondary college, when they’re massively behind, to put in a real effort – and I have known schools to wait until Year 12 to assist.
I’ve known several students who only got the help they needed towards the end of secondary school – but by then they had basically missed out on ten years worth of schooling, and the gap was too great to close.
If One Nation supporters really wanted to retain “Australian culture”, they would not support black-shirted Border and Customs officers, or soldiers “keeping the peace” on the streets.
zoomster
I’m wondering long-term results will eventuate from pre-schoolers being taken into Parliament. 😉
https://thewest.com.au/news/wa/nbn-fail-a-threat-to-lives-economy-ng-b88538329z
Media slants or bias can be subtle, on page 2 of today’s GG “Our people are worth the penalty rates: JB Hi-Fi”.
On their announcement that they won’t be passing on the Sunday penalty rate cut, JB said ‘the best outcome for our team members was to maintain their existing conditions ‘.
They first line of the article says “..JB Hi-Fi has refused to pass on the FWC mandated cuts”, as if they are defying a ruling. Isn’t that how a free and flexible Labour market is supposed to work?
Further in the article they mention it may come at a ‘cost to shareholders’.
https://thewest.com.au/news/wa/mp-claims-broadband-bias-in-wa-suburbs-ng-b88538386z
NBN seems to be a bit of a theme in today’s West.
Thanks BK.
Vanstone crapping on about the “sensible centre”. A meaningless phrase with similar roots to “technology agnostic”, “sensible centre” is just shorthand for “maintaining the status quo”. What that is depends on your political orientation. I am sure Eric Abtez’s idea of the “sensible centre” is quite different to Mark Butler’s.
How about politicians and commentators discussing actual policy for once, instead of recycling this crap.
Abetz
(a moron paid $250,000/year just to be a moron)
And more of the same theme.
https://thewest.com.au/news/wa/a-service-thats-slower-than-a-leisurely-snail-ng-b88538331z
Pleasant morning, Bludgertrack-wise.
I gather the YouGov numbers didn’t rate too highly at this stage. 🙂
The sensible centre argument is hilarious when you think about it.
I look at the world this way – you’re either walking toward something or away from it.
In politics, the ALP walks toward the future, willingly, knowing there is potential for the betterment of life. Aspiration can be rewarded.
The coalition walks away from the future … their eyes firmly focussed on the 1950s-70s and the nostalgia of a ‘simpler, safer’ time when everyone knew their place and aspiration was confined to those who they thought deserved it.
This article linked by BK:
The think tank in question is the RW Centre for Independent Studies. They’re about as “independent” as Fox News is “fair and balanced”.
Good Morning
William thanks for the Bludgertrack update. Like with BK I don’t say it much but I appreciate your insight into politics big time.
I am pleased voters are rewarding the government with the ratings I think it deserves for its performance.
Citizen
The term co payment is a dead giveaway. Thats the US health care system. No true Australian wants that value to become an Australian value.
trog sorrenson @ #28 Monday, July 17, 2017 at 8:51 am
Agree, but if the Liberals are referring to that part of them as the “sensible centre”, is that an acknowledgement that the “Right” of the Party are not sensible?
Maybe they are the,
Irrational, insensitive, crazed, self-indulgent Right;
or more simply;
Completely heartless, egomanical bastards.
As opposed to the “sensible centre” who are just
Heartless, egomanical bastards.
🙂
BK missed the big entertainment controversy. A female Doctor Who.
One Jodi Whittaker. I am for it. However I wanted a bit more rainbow sexuality first. Good luck to her and the BBC for taking this step. George Christensen MP will not be happy with the gender bending 👿
Some good news
DownerCarCrash: Adani are so broke that Bank of India are pressuring them to sell Australian holdings to repay loans. thehindu.com/business/Indus… #StopAdani pic.twitter.com/hzSQ9uDwW1
http://www.thehindu.com/business/Industry/the-biggestever-fire-sale-of-indian-corporate-assets-has-begun-to-tide-over-bad-loans-crisis/article8573163.ece
Citizen
After Rupes started slashing journo numbers way back The Centre for Independent Studies along with the IPA were who Rupert chose to use to supply endless articles and opinion pieces. Ended up making me decide to stop buying The Australian.
jenauthor @ #31 Monday, July 17, 2017 at 9:03 am
Remember Delta getting bad publicity over a Dr. Now its on the comeback with some good publicity.
Delta: @AnnCoulter Additionally, your insults about our other customers and employees are unacceptable and unnecessary.
‘One Jodi Whittaker. I am for it. However I wanted a bit more rainbow sexuality first..’
Why? Because 10% of the population deserve more recognition than 50%?
I find it hard to work out if the comments in the Australian are serious or not. Take for example.
Average Joe 14 MINUTES AGO
Keep going Cory.
This business about civil war in the Libs because of Mr Abbott is BS. The civil war is because Lord Wentworth (an employee of the Illuminati) knifed a sitting PM. That was the day I left the Liberal party. I joined the Australian Conservatives the day it was announced.
The Liberal Party is dead to me.
zoomster
I just thought the last season should have been that. I applaud the female Dr. On twitter the “masculine” blokes are whining already.
Jen, you emojied me, too early 🙂
I think William uses the raw primary numbers and calculates his own 2PP.
They weren’t so much different to the others and also he probably gives YouGov a low initial weighting until he gets a better feel for their direction.
guytaur
The last season had a lesbian as the companion. The spin off series has a bi sexual in a homosexual relationship as the main character. I think Dr Who has got its bases covered.
From Urban Wronski. Menzies reaches from the grave and gives Turnbull a sharp slap.
If Adani has to have a fire sale of Australian assets, Big Gina might step up to the plate, as she did with the cattle stations.
She might be wise to wait until her boys Barnyard and Caravan deliver on a tax-payer funded railroad to the port.
guytaur @ #37 Monday, July 17, 2017 at 9:18 am
Too much information! : )
Here’s hoping that many other retailers read the public mood over penalty rates like JB HiFi has apparently done. JB can probably see a commercial advantage in a competitive retail market of being seen to treat their staff fairly.
Hopefully other retailers will see the positive image that they can project by doing likewise.
It will be interesting to see what the perennial whinger Gerry Harvey is doing.