BludgerTrack: 53.0-47.0 to Labor

A bit of a fillip for Labor in the latest reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, and also for Bill Shorten whose net approval rating has edged ahead of Malcolm Turnbull’s.

There’s a fair bit going on under the hood in BludgerTrack this week, which is why it’s taken so long. The bias adjustments and weightings have been recalibrated, and I’ve brought the two results so far from YouGov into the model. I’m not sure which of these is responsible, or whether it’s just because of two strong results for Labor from Newspoll and Essential, but there’s been a fairly noticeable bump to Labor on two-party preferred along with a net gain of two on the seat projection, with one gain in apiece in New South Wales, Queensland and South Australia balanced by a loss in Western Australia. A drought on leadership ratings has also ended with two sets of results from Newspoll and Essential, the effect of which is that Bill Shorten has now poked ahead of Malcolm Turnbull on net approval, though not preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

444 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.0-47.0 to Labor”

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  1. a r

    Monday, July 17, 2017 at 5:19 pm
    Three ways, when you consider the preferred way to count to ten for IT mathemetcians:
    0,1,10

    When you write your tax return in HEX you have written too much assembler code. If you know what assembler code is your too old to write programs.

  2. Frednk

    And he thinks it is a vote winner?

    It is for the demographic that he needs to keep his arse upon the throne. The P Duddy/ Monkey Pod one.

  5. The journo from Al Jazeera is very impressive, Canavan comes across as dull, arrogant and convincing no one with his waffle.

  8. Stackhouse doesnt always have a lot of relevance to domestic Australian policy or issues, but he does provide a counterpoint or way of thinking thats interesting.

  9. Like to point out that in high school ( catholic order in NSW) I was given religious education on Islam, Buddhism, Shinto and a lot of protestant strands that was pretty even handed and insightful. It is available in the NSW curriculum. Cant speak for the other education systems.

  10. Jack A Randa
    Monday, July 17, 2017 at 8:14 pm
    Re Handmaid’s Tale: I read that Ms Atwood herself had said that the TV version was so grim she couldn’t watch it. Call us sensitive souls, but my wife and I have taken the hint from that.

    I am certain she meant that as a rhetorical complement to the production. At least give it a go. Your sensibility won’t regret it.

    Recent favourites of mine are also Better Call Saul (all seasons) and Fargo season 3.

  11. Blame social media. Funny. Newspaper columnists and radio commentators were not described as social media last time I looked. Great way to deflect there. Scapegoat social media for AMuslim woman leaving the country

  12. Question @ #409 Monday, July 17th, 2017 – 10:41 pm

    I am certain she meant that as a rhetorical complement to the production.

    Yes, I would take a comment like that as positive criticism. Having familiarity with the book, I can’t imagine a faithful reproduction not being grim. It’s not a story about sunshine and happiness.

  14. I find watching Handmaid’s Tale quite traumatic to watch but I suspect I’ll bat on – on the basis that it’s important and all too relevant to current events. Having said that, some of the production strikes me as a little gratuitious; lingering on imagery of bodies strung up around the city and so forth.

  15. Boerwar
    Monday, July 17, 2017 at 8:00 pm
    Newspoll?

    Also curious. Can someone enlighten me, so I can get back to my Top End holiday please.

  16. Yes Al Jazeera chap impressive. But he’d be well advised to leave that silly statistical argument about terrorism alone. It’s like saying that if a few Samsung handphones catch on fire, then Samsung phone users should be entirely relaxed because the number of people affected thus far is tiny and therefore the risk your phone will fry the side of your face is miniscule.

    The fact is we all fear what would happen if acts of terrorism move to the next level in terms of numbers of casualties and methods involving mass destruction. The idea that people who are so ideologically driven they’ll blow themselves up is a statistically small problem is to completely mis-characterise what is going on.

  22. I might be imagining this, but this interlude (Abbott has shut up for a few days) feels like some kind of inflexion point in the whole Turnbull-Abbott saga. Comparisons between R-G-R ignore the fundamental differences in character between Rudd and Abbott. Good old Tony is a bloke’s bloke and I don’t think it’s beyond the bounds of possibility that some blokes he respects have actually sat him down over a few beers and given him the facts of the situation. And I don’t mean the next election. And I don’t mean that he’s helping Bill. What I mean is that he is seriously damaging the legacy he will carry into the rest of his life. That matters to Abbott. I’m sure it does.

  23. guytaur @ #417 Monday, July 17, 2017 at 11:07 pm

    Apparently Foxtel has gone down. During biggest show of the year Game of Thrones.

    It’s been the experience of some naughty people I know (not me, honest) that it is best to wait 24 hours before trying to access your non-genuine copy of GoT via Bit Torrent. I can’t verify this as true or not, scouts honour fellow Bludgers 😉

  26. Over in the West there were several articles in the dead tree edition of the West which were very critical of the parts of the NBN which are not FTTP. Also, according to my dad who is an avid ABC listener the non FTTP NBN was covered this morning on one of their shows and the anger levels of the callers was running high.

    I very much hope this is the beginnings of traction under the campaign to highlight the appalling vandalism that the L/NP has inflicted on 70% of the country with their second rate MBM NBN – hopefully to become known as Malcolm Turnbull’s Mess.

  29. I am probably going to get FoxtelNow for a few months(yeah, I know). I’ll wait a while so I can binge watch (and avoid the rush currently crashing their servers). I also want to check out Westworld and True Detective.

  32. question @ #429 Monday, July 17, 2017 at 11:37 pm

    I am probably going to get FoxtelNow for a few months(yeah, I know). I’ll wait a while so I can binge watch (and avoid the rush currently crashing their servers). I also want to check out Westworld and True Detective.

    Get yourself a VPN client, that will give you access to Hulu (US), Amazon Prime (US) and any international Netflix service you choose. Between those services and bit torrent, you’ll shudder at the money you have previously wasted on Foxtel.

  33. Drove back from the Central Coast tonight and caught the early part of Q&A on ABC News Radio. Matt Canavan was dominating, talking crap as usual. I decided to switch over to Late Night Live.

  35. Grimace,
    I usually have 1 streaming service at a time. That is between $10 and $15(for the Foxtel pack I want) a month. Then I have a PVR to record free to air (skipping adds is a minor chore). What with Youtube that gives me more than enough. Very occasionally I will hire a new release movie from one of those machines which are half the price of renting online. So about $15 per month and totally legit : )

    BTW, I can even watch MasterChef on a PVR. You just start watching the recording when the show is almost over and with the x1.3 speed and skipping through the repititions and adds I can watch a whole show in about 15minutes : )

  36. When you write your tax return in HEX you have written too much assembler code. If you know what assembler code is your too old to write programs.

    Well I have turned 40 since I started posting on PB.

  38. alias @ #416 Monday, July 17th, 2017 – 11:06 pm

    It’s like saying that if a few Samsung handphones catch on fire, then Samsung phone users should be entirely relaxed because the number of people affected thus far is tiny and therefore the risk your phone will fry the side of your face is miniscule.

    That’s actually pretty accurate. There have been iPhone and Macbook battery fires too, but you don’t see anyone (and in particular, Aussies) rushing to ditch their iDevice for fear that it will spontaneously combust. The risk of that actually happening is statistically miniscule, and most people rightly don’t care.

    Arguing that statistically disproportionate fear of terrorism is justified is…pretty much exactly what terrorists want.

  40. From the Essential poll. 6% of respondents had a favourable view of Kim Jong-un. Now we know who Kim Jong-Turnbull was addressing yesterday.


  42. Aqualung
    Tuesday, July 18, 2017 at 5:16 am

    From the Essential poll. 6% of respondents had a favourable view of Kim Jong-un. Now we know who Kim Jong-Turnbull was addressing yesterday.

    A sure indication that a larger percentage have no idea who he is.

  44. This is an excellent article from the New Yorker on Trump supporters in Colorado (a nominally Democrat state).
    How Trump Is Transforming Rural America | The New Yorker via NextDraft
    http://nxt.fm/2uwnvrz

    A comment on support for him, in the face of latest events
    “The calculus seemed to have shifted: Trump’s negative qualities, which once had been described as a means to an end, now had value of their own. The point wasn’t necessarily to get things done; it was to retaliate against the media and other enemies”.
    Also
    “But the lack of legislative accomplishment seems only to make supporters take more satisfaction in Trump’s behavior. And thus far the President’s tone, rather than his policies, has had the greatest impact on Grand Junction”.

    After reading this, I think the story (and I mean story), that Trump Jnr was caught in a Democrat trap will be believed.

    It is hard to think of a killer blow that could take down Trump, the Democrats mustn’t take the mid-terms and the next presidential campaign for granted.

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