BludgerTrack: 53.0-47.0 to Labor

A bit of a fillip for Labor in the latest reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, and also for Bill Shorten whose net approval rating has edged ahead of Malcolm Turnbull’s.

There’s a fair bit going on under the hood in BludgerTrack this week, which is why it’s taken so long. The bias adjustments and weightings have been recalibrated, and I’ve brought the two results so far from YouGov into the model. I’m not sure which of these is responsible, or whether it’s just because of two strong results for Labor from Newspoll and Essential, but there’s been a fairly noticeable bump to Labor on two-party preferred along with a net gain of two on the seat projection, with one gain in apiece in New South Wales, Queensland and South Australia balanced by a loss in Western Australia. A drought on leadership ratings has also ended with two sets of results from Newspoll and Essential, the effect of which is that Bill Shorten has now poked ahead of Malcolm Turnbull on net approval, though not preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

444 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.0-47.0 to Labor”

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  1. I hate to join the Energy Wars on PB, but I did notice a hell of a lot of solar farms while watching the Tour de France. (one had about one million panels!). At the same time, there were wind mills on many hills, and of course France also has nuclear power, and even a tidal power station in Brittany (the delightfully titled ‘Usine Maremotrice’ , near Dinard). Not much mention of gas powered, though!

  2. So many things have to be assembled by the purchaser these days. Once upon a time you could buy a wheelbarrow ready for use. Not any more. I just hope my nutting and bolting is adequate!

  3. So Centrelink update:

    After a phone call from Department of Human Services just now.

    I am hopeful to be back on DSP next after the 3rd debacle in 2 years.

    Bad news is that my beloved Indefinite Portability won’t join me.

  5. A R – nah, it’s won’t work in this instance, because above all no one is listening to Turnbull, and of those who do, none believe a word he’s saying. He’s meant to be the urbane social progressive, but he’s sold out so many of his principles that when he stages something like this it just looks completely fake and lacking in any gravitas. He’s gone. The government is gone. It’s just a matter of whether they lose by 17-20 seats under him or by 40-45 seats under Abbott.

  8. **I was outside on the patio**
    My patio was the scene of a war between howling winds and sheets of pelting rains surrounded by angry trees hurling abusive leaves and sticks as they twisted and contorted in what seemed like screeches of pain.

  9. @Confesssions

    Allows severly disabled to have better life in another country(or have family in another country).

    But they recently chopped its head off to 4 weeks overseas now.

    Meanwhile our politicians get travel expenses.

  10. Gippslander, Guyatur;
    I would probably see an erect penis if i could just lose some weight around my middle.

  11. Gippslander

    I hate to join the Energy Wars on PB, but I did notice a hell of a lot of solar farms while watching the Tour de France.

    Good to have you on board Gippslander, I’ll get the quartermaster to issue you some kit.
    I wouldn’t worry too much about the opposition, they don’t have much in the way of weaponry. Spotted one the other day with a bow and arrow, and another with bolas – from South America for chrissake!
    Getting back to France. Yes, they are a fair way ahead of Australia technically. Recently banned all fossil fuel exploration – great stuff.
    See you in the trenches.

  13. You wouldn’t need much gas if you have nuclear, but they do use it. Right at this moment, France is getting about 77% of its power from nuclear, and about 4% from gas. But that’s much more than from coal (2%) or oil (negligible).

    The French use plenty of gas, it’s just directly put to use for heating. Instead, in many parts of Aus we use heat pumps.

    They also get their peaking capacity courtesy of the Alps, which is not really an option here.

  14. On Dr Who.

    FFS who cares. Some one, any one take the money and run.

    The scripts are so lacking I expect it to go on too much longer.

  15. On Dr Who.

    FFS who cares. Some one, any one take the money and run.

    The scripts are so lacking I expect it to go on too much longer.

  18. Greg Barns

    The Turnbull government’s plan sets a dangerous precedent including the possibility of martial law type conditions being imposed on Australians, and military human rights abuses.

    The sight of heavily armed soldiers on city streets is not something that Australians have seen in recent years – the 1978 Hilton Hotel bombing in Sydney was the last time. Last month, after the London Bridge terrorist attacks, the UK government deployed hundreds of soldiers across key areas. After the January 2015 attack on French magazine Charlie Hebdo’s offices, 10,000 French soldiers were deployed to guard key sites in downtown Paris.

    So the Turnbull government could argue it has learnt from the UK and French experiences and bringing its laws into line to ensure a similar use of force and protection is available.

    But amending legislation to allow for the military to inject itself into preventing terrorism or in response to a terrorist attack must, if it is to be passed by the federal parliament at all, contain extremely strict parameters because the scope for abuse of power by the military, at the behest of government, is real and profound.

    Since we haven’t quite sorted out the difference between a terrorist attack and your ordinary crazy human being, this is very worrying. Politically I fear that everything will become terrorism.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/17/giving-the-defence-force-powers-to-fight-domestic-terrorism-sets-a-dangerous-precedent?CMP=soc_568

  19. The last photo in this article is quite frightening – something your average dictator would use as a backdrop.

    Special forces ‘used as prop’ in press conference

    Labor’s Defence spokesman, Mr Marles, questioned the way the soldiers were used in the Prime Minister’s announcement.

    “There is a fine line between acknowledging and celebrating the incredible work that our Defence Force personnel do on the one hand, and politicising them on the other,” Mr Marles said.

    “As public officials in this space, we must always ensure we never politicise the ADF.

    “I think that the Australian people can well see a prop when it is presented. They can sniff it from a mile away and they will judge people accordingly.”

    He said the Defence Force must always be used respectfully.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-17/australian-defence-force-given-call-out-powers-terrorism/8715878

  26. [The Referendum Council is expected to endorse the plan for an Indigenous voice into the constitution when it delivers its final report to the Prime Minister on Monday.

    Sky News understands Referendum Council member and former Liberal politician Amanda Vanstone has dissented from the decision, saying she does not support an Indigenous voice being inserted into the constition without further consultation.
    ]

    Malcolm welcomes Shorten then his hand flies to his nose (as usual), “I lie”.

    http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2017/07/17/referendum-council-wants–indigenous-voice-.html

  32. Player One @ #227 Monday, July 17th, 2017 – 3:38 pm

    Test.
    Has PB gone crazy for everyone, or is it just me?

    Nope. Though I noticed a few days ago that they may have been running an A/B test or something similar. ‘A’ was the ‘standard’ page where plugins load and work as normal. ‘B’ appeared to be the ‘standard’ page, but prevented my plugin from loading.

    Didn’t investigate further because I seem to have been shifted back to the ‘A’ version and the site still works with plugins.

    Perhaps they’ve gone and decided to go live with the ‘B’ version?

  44. Ok CTar1. Went back to chrome and can get page 5 there now. Having said that I like the layout better on Firefox so might stay with it. Thanks CTar1 and William.

  46. Another improvement from the kiddies running this site. Why don’t they fix the broken sign in links before embarking on another expedition into the unknown. The 404 with Julie Bishop has grown stale.

  47. The last photo in this article is quite frightening – something your average dictator would use as a backdrop.

    Very Blake’s 7.

  50. Refreshing page 5 throws me to the top of page 5. Minor inconvenience but hasn’t happened previously. Using firefox.

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