BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor

A detailed quarterly breakdown of federal voting intention at state level records Labor sagging in Victoria, but still on course for an election-winning swing in Queensland.

First up, please note that we have had the rare treat overnight of a state poll from South Australia, which you can read all about here.

Now to BludgerTrack, and the in-depth look at state-level federal voting intention trends that I lay on at the end of each quarter. First up, the vanilla weekly version of BludgerTrack, which is displayed at the bottom of the post, is inclusive only of the usual result from Essential Research. ReachTEL will have to wait until next week, because I don’t yet have all the data I need from it, and the new fortnightly YouGov/Fifty Acres poll won’t make the cut until I have more than one data point to work with. The only change worth noting on the headline numbers is that some of the edge has come off the recent spike to One Nation, although the overall pattern of recovery from a nadir around May is still evident. The Coalition makes a net gain of one on the seat projection, being up one in Victoria and Western Australia. Nothing new this week for leadership ratings.

There has been a very slight trend back to the Coalition over the past three months, but overall the impression has been of consistency on every measure, whether relating to voting intention or leadership. But as illustrated by the detailed quarterly breakdowns, which draw on this week’s breakdowns from Newspoll together with unpublished numbers from Essential, there has been quite a bit going on beneath this deceptively calm surface. Since the last such update three months ago, Labor has gone down 0.6% on two-party preferred, but up four on the seat projection – testament to the sensitivity of Queensland, where Labor’s 0.8% gain has translated into five seats.

It’s in the two biggest states that the Coalition’s modest improvement has been concentrated, particularly in Victoria, where Labor is down 2.7%. This raises the possibility that the heavy weather encountered by Daniel Andrews’ government is causing the party damage federally, which is going unnoticed due to Labor’s strong standing in the state in absolute terms (the swing since the last election is still bigger than New South Wales, off an already stronger base, the state’s limited strategic importance (while more than three times bigger than Queensland’s, the change on the previous quarter has only shifted the seat projection by one) and Labor’s sustained strength elsewhere. South Australia joins Queensland as the other state where Labor has gained ground, and they have tapered off only a little in Western Australia after what was probably an unsustainable peak at the time of the state election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

747 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor”

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  2. “joshgnosis: SBS killed off a pre-Budget scoop on the drug testing for welfare trial in exchange for an interview with the PM. crikey.com.au/2017/07/03/sbs…”

    The more we see about how the media actually works in this country the better.

    Like the making of sausages, it may not be pretty, but it’s good to know the kind of shite you’re consuming.

    And I would think that this kind of thing would not be limited to SBS….

  4. So the Turnbull government are going to trumpet getting the unemployed into ‘jobs’ which pay them no money and provide free labour for their mates who own the businesses?

    the Herald Sun reports that Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Employment Minister Michaelia Cash will today announce an agreement with the National Retail Association to place up to 10,000 15 to 24-years-olds who have been on welfare payments for six months or more in retail internships with businesses such as Battery World, Coffee Club and BrightEyes, with the aim of helping them find work.

    I wonder how many of them will actually find work out of it, and how many will just get churned?

  5. Cat

    We have a guide.

    MarkDiStef: According to Michaelia Cash, 1200 young people have now gone through the PaTH internship program… with 82 getting a job out of it.

    Thought4rce: A success rate of 6.8% woohoo! Lol #auspol twitter.com/markdistef/sta…

  6. The worst part of this PaTH scam is that taxpayers are paying the $4 an hour.

    Employers get $12k by the government to take on each “worker”, and then taxpayers pay the “wages”.

    This isn’t a job plan, it’s more corporate welfare to go along with the reduction in penalty rates and tax cuts.

  7. C@t – read the examples of “workers” in that article, it’s full of stuff along the lines of “I like it because I could get a job at the end of it”.

    Also note the language in the opening paragraph about “youth slackers“.

    B@st@rds.

  8. Dan G

    You may find this interesting. Has Ms Cash been studying the American Way?

    Trump’s “taxpayer first” budget proposal, released last month, not only guts social welfare spending, but expands work requirements for low-income recipients of aid. “If you are on food stamps and you are able bodied, we need you to go to work,” declared budget director Mick Mulvaney.

    Making low-income Americans work to qualify for aid has long been couched in the language of personal responsibility, dignity, and civic and moral duty. Mulvaney’s comments during the White House briefing were no exception: “There is a dignity to work,” he declared. “And there’s a necessity to work to help the country succeed.”

    While work requirements are widely regarded as darlings of the conservative agenda, few recognize the role that faith-based organizations have played in lending these policies ideological and practical support. Geographer Jason Hackworth terms this phenomenon “religious neoliberalism,” the “ideational fusion” between free-market ideologues and religious conservatives. These two groups, Hackworth argues, are bound through a mutual “faith in the market, faith in the individual, and faith in a small (or nonexistent) government.”

    Arguably nowhere is this ideological fusion more prominent than in the faith-based — or, rather, faith-saturated — job-readiness program called Jobs for Life (JFL). Founded in 1996 in Raleigh, North Carolina, JFL is a global nonprofit organization premised on the belief that the local church, given its capacity to mobilize the cant of volunteers, is the untapped and ideal “solution” to the enduring social crises of poverty and unemployment.

    https://jacobinmag.com/2017/06/work-to-welfare-unemployment-christian-right-jobs-for-life

  9. Its title is “Cleaning Toilets for Jesus”. Jesus is represented by any slave-driving, low-paying, capitalist boss, apparently.

  11. mpesce: BECAUSE REMEMBER A JOB THAT PAYS YOU $140* A WEEK IS BETTER THAN NO JOB AT ALL THOUGH YOU’LL SPEND THAT GETTING TO WORK ON TIME

    *before tax

  12. mpesce: THERE IS A REASON WE HAVE A MINIMUM WAGE. AND IT’S NOT BECAUSE OF BLOODY SOCIALISTS. IT’S BECAUSE IT COSTS MONEY TO WORK FOR A LIVING.

  13. guytaur

    ‘Buying into the Greens must go right to gain more voters is to buy the right’s argument..’

    Sorry, I have no idea why you addressed any of that to me.

    I’m not saying anything about what the Greens should or should not do. All I’m saying is that the NSW Greens don’t have anything to teach Labor.

  14. zoomster

    I addressed that to you on the basis of teaching to Labor. The whole go to the right thing does not work for Labor because at heart workers rights are opposed by the right.

  15. Rowan‏ @FightingTories · 14h14 hours ago

    Retailers like Battery World, Bakers Delight, Coffee Club and BrightEyes have all signed up for $4 an hr interns

  21. Yep. Boycotting these companies would be a good idea. Seriously what the f is wrong with these people. Internships to do basic retailing roles. What happened to employing someone on a trial basis and paying them the award rate whilst doing so?

  22. Suggestion on Twitter:

    retail internships will see casual workers unemployed, this government can be so cruel

  24. Victoria

    Training on the job used to be accepted (within limits). This ‘internship’ for retailing is so artificial.

  25. Lizzie

    Most definitely! It makes my blood boil.

    I am so over this pathetic excuse of a govt. Between Turnbull and Trump, it is doing my head in!!

  26. I thought it was training on the job was known as apprenticeship. Why the fancy new name? US style flim flammery to undermine wages. As Lizzie posted more terminology over substance over there.

  27. Malcolm Turnbull has committed to run as prime minister in a 2019 election, two days after he said he would leave parliament if he lost the prime ministership.

    “I can assure you I will be prime minister for a very long time,” Turnbull told reporters on Monday. “I will be running at the 2019 election and will win. So that’s my commitment.”

    Someone must have woken him up.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/jul/03/malcolm-turnbull-commits-to-run-and-win-as-prime-minister-in-2019-election?CMP=share_btn_tw

  31. Both coffee club and bakers delight have form for exploiting workers. Wonder why 7-11 hasn’t signed up yet.

  32. Fairfax shares have been smashed after it failed to entice private equity buyers to part with their cash to take over the media and real estate company.

    Key points:

    Fairfax is planning to spin-off Domain into a separate entity, and enter the mortgage broking business
    TPG Capital has decided not to make a formal takeover offer after examining Fairfax’s books
    Hellman & Friedman have not yet ruled out making a formal offer
    With no buyer, Fairfax Media is pressing ahead with a spin-off of its real estate classifieds division Domain into a separate entity.

    Fairfax’s share price fell sharply – to a three-month low – following these latest developments.

    At 11:53am (AEST), Fairfax shares were trading 11.6 per cent lower at 97.25 cents.

    Pushing right wing agenda not helping Fairfax much.

  33. Now this could lead to some interesting outcomes. We certainly have a two tiered legal system in terms of access for defending reputation. If you are not very wealthy its really beyond your reach to access.

    The cost of defamation trials is “worrying” and may outweigh the “tangible benefit” of protecting reputation, the state’s top judge has said, as the courts grapple with a growing number of cases involving slurs on social media.

    In an interview with Fairfax Media to mark 40 years since he was admitted to the bar, NSW Chief Justice Tom Bathurst said it “may well be that it would be a very worthwhile reference for the Law Reform Commission” to re-examine the country’s uniform defamation laws.

    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-chief-justice-tom-bathurst-warns-of-worrying-costs-in-defamation-cases-20170630-gx1z4d.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=nc&eid=socialn%3Atwi-13omn1677-edtrl-other%3Annn-17%2F02%2F2014-edtrs_socialshare-all-nnn-nnn-vars-o%26sa%3DD%26usg%3DALhdy28zsr6qiq

  37. A good article from Christina Hoff Sommers –

    https://www.theatlantic.com/amp/article/530736/

    Perhaps a few PBers should take note.
    Particularly the mention of lunatic Louise Mensch.

    That conspiracy nut has been completely wrong on every rumour she has peddled and it has been a sad but humorous experience to watch many here descend into raving idiots since Trumps election.

    PhoenixRed should particularly take note because although they probably get a few pats on the head by other ill informed and delusional Trump haters here anyone not in the PB echo chamber could only conclude they are mentally unstable verging on senility.

    Trump is a troll but he only exists because of a debased media class and a political left that have shown themselves to be utterly humourless and hypocritical.

    No one warned of the dangers of a Trump presidency here more than me and it is deflating to see the left double down on the same overblown and hyper hysterical nonsense that in no small part led to President Trump.

    Thanks for the laughs though.
    It has been and continues to be a great source of entertainment.

    Louise Mensch. FFS!!!
    Haha.
    How bloody delusional and desperate could some people be?
    It would be hilarious if it wasn’t so bat shit crazy.

  39. MWhitbourn: #BREAKING Ex NSW Labor boss Jamie Clements fined $4000 and conviction recorded for unlawfully accessing electoral roll information #nswpol

  40. lizzie @ #524 Monday, July 3, 2017 at 1:59 pm

    Victoria
    Training on the job used to be accepted (within limits). This ‘internship’ for retailing is so artificial.

    No matter what the job, there is always an element of initial training required to teach the environment within the business and how the business does things.
    Some employers seem to have a fantasy where people emerge direct from School, TAFE or University, knowing the exact way that business operates and does things. They continually bleat about a ‘skills shortage’.

  41. Zoidlord
    So why is LNP IN bed with SCUM again?

    Scum lay with scum, and begat more scum; and so it was, unto the end of the world.

  43. ‘Adrian
    Malcolm may be his own favourite topic. He is not alone. Even Bill occasionally talks about himself.’

    Yes, but only Malcolm displays the total comfort and ease in talking about himself that is the characteristic of the true narcissist.

  44. I can’t post the video, but some of you may have seen it already.

    Pauline Hanson asks a dark skinned cameraman if he is a REFUGEE. When he replies no, Aboriginal, she says “Really? I wouldn’t have picked it. Good to see you’re actually, you know, taking up this, and working.”

    How ignorant is this female? The tone is so bloody condescending.

  45. Adrian – only Malcolm has the guts to be Malcolm. When you think about it, that’s a real act of courage. I know that if I had to be Malcolm, I’d never leave the damp dark hole he crawls out of each morning.

    Such a shame that courage doesn’t carry through to his actual acts as PM.

  46. lizzie @ #543 Monday, July 3, 2017 at 3:06 pm

    I can’t post the video, but some of you may have seen it already.
    Pauline Hanson asks a dark skinned cameraman if he is a REFUGEE. When he replies no, Aboriginal, she says “Really? I wouldn’t have picked it. Good to see you’re actually, you know, taking up this, and working.”
    How ignorant is this female? The tone is so bloody condescending.

    How about a link or at least some description of where you saw it?

  47. Speaking of excessively light sentences handed out by the judiciary:

    A CYCLIST hater has been sentenced to eight years’ jail after he killed a Sydney pushbike rider while on bail and a good behaviour bond for a string of other crimes.

    Today Ben Smith, 27, was sentenced to a non-parole period of 5 ½ years for the manslaughter of father-of-three Steve Jarvie who was left to die on the side of the Old Pacific Highway at Cowan in February 2013.

    Smith was found guilty of manslaughter in May this year after a jury heard he had boasted about knocking Mr Jarvie off his pushbike when he sped past on his motorcycle.

    During the 10-day trial the court heard Smith left Mr Jarvie on the side of the road and then ranted and raved about how “the c—t deserved it” at the nearby Road Warriors café at Mount White, just north of Sydney.

    https://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/news/cyclist-hater-jailed-eight-years-death-steve-jarvi/3196209/

    If you’re an asshole who hates cyclists you can murder one and openly brag about it and it’ll only cost you 8 years. Or 5.5 years if you get paroled.

  48. Re defamation law, just how many times has there been an inquiry?

    It appears as if the law is registered by the National Trust and so is subject to a preservation order.

  50. Victoria,
    You are my ” go to” blogger on Trump and Russiagate. It’s been eerily quiet on this saga over the past couple of weeks. Mueller is no doubt getting on with the complex task. Nothing is leaking. Do you have an explanation? Or am I becoming too pessimistic.

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