First up, please note that we have had the rare treat overnight of a state poll from South Australia, which you can read all about here.
Now to BludgerTrack, and the in-depth look at state-level federal voting intention trends that I lay on at the end of each quarter. First up, the vanilla weekly version of BludgerTrack, which is displayed at the bottom of the post, is inclusive only of the usual result from Essential Research. ReachTEL will have to wait until next week, because I don’t yet have all the data I need from it, and the new fortnightly YouGov/Fifty Acres poll won’t make the cut until I have more than one data point to work with. The only change worth noting on the headline numbers is that some of the edge has come off the recent spike to One Nation, although the overall pattern of recovery from a nadir around May is still evident. The Coalition makes a net gain of one on the seat projection, being up one in Victoria and Western Australia. Nothing new this week for leadership ratings.
There has been a very slight trend back to the Coalition over the past three months, but overall the impression has been of consistency on every measure, whether relating to voting intention or leadership. But as illustrated by the detailed quarterly breakdowns, which draw on this week’s breakdowns from Newspoll together with unpublished numbers from Essential, there has been quite a bit going on beneath this deceptively calm surface. Since the last such update three months ago, Labor has gone down 0.6% on two-party preferred, but up four on the seat projection – testament to the sensitivity of Queensland, where Labor’s 0.8% gain has translated into five seats.
It’s in the two biggest states that the Coalition’s modest improvement has been concentrated, particularly in Victoria, where Labor is down 2.7%. This raises the possibility that the heavy weather encountered by Daniel Andrews’ government is causing the party damage federally, which is going unnoticed due to Labor’s strong standing in the state in absolute terms (the swing since the last election is still bigger than New South Wales, off an already stronger base, the state’s limited strategic importance (while more than three times bigger than Queensland’s, the change on the previous quarter has only shifted the seat projection by one) and Labor’s sustained strength elsewhere. South Australia joins Queensland as the other state where Labor has gained ground, and they have tapered off only a little in Western Australia after what was probably an unsustainable peak at the time of the state election.
Bemused
It was on Twitter and the links don’t work from there. But see Laughtong, above.
lizzie @ #550 Monday, July 3, 2017 at 3:41 pm
Thanks, got it.
A R
From the article
“In handing down his sentence Judge Buscombe found Smith had “a strong dislike verging on hate towards cyclists” as evidenced by a Facebook post in which he warned cyclists they would keep “coping 2inch flybys” and abuse if they continued to use the road.”
As Jacki Weaver once said: the best haters are always the worst spellers.
Zoid
They feel at home with them?
Al Pal Monday, July 3, 2017 at 3:40 pm
Victoria,
You are my ” go to” blogger on Trump and Russiagate. It’s been eerily quiet on this saga over the past couple of weeks. Mueller is no doubt getting on with the complex task. Nothing is leaking. Do you have an explanation? Or am I becoming too pessimistic.
******************************************
I think that “nothing is leaking” stands as a testament to the quality and expertise of Mueller and the formidable team he has assembled so far …… they are all experts in their field in prosecuting high stake cases – be it FBI,CIA, DOJ ……..with an increasing emphasis on experts in organised crime, money laundering, racketeering ……
Each day brings up another ‘person on interest’ that they will want to question …..
It is going to TAKE TIME for Mueller’s Team to do their job thoroughly …….
Meet the all-star legal team who may take down Trump
Special counsel Robert Mueller’s legal team is full of pros. Trump’s team makes typos.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/6/15/15783384/trump-mueller-team-russia-investigation-dreeben-weissman-quarles-rhee-zebley
True, and the ALP don’t really represent anyone either. It has been many decades since Labor had genuine commitment to making society less unequal. A party whose leaders end up with highly paid sinecures with banks, casinos, and mining interests is not really a workers’ party any more.
So, has Peg been around to regale us with the wonders of the Trots and the Tree Tories?
No?
Or the beeyootiful whales SHY and offspring spotted on the taxpayer?
No?
Or the way in which Di Natale is not cutting the mustard as the Head Honcho?
No?
Strange…
lizzie @ #544 Monday, July 3, 2017 at 3:06 pm
It sounds like her reaction on Q&A when she found out Dastyari was a Muslim.
It’s amazing how the ignorant react when their preconceived ideas are rebutted by reality.
So, Nicholas, how is the Glorious Losers Far Left Faction travelling today?
Scoring any wins, anywhere?
(We don’t count pious words and hand wringing as a win.)
Always noting that SYRIZA has been a horrible, horrible three card Glorious Losers Left Faction con trick on the poor old Greeks.
As for what the Glorious Winners Far Left Faction get up to… take a look at Columbia.
Basket case.
Easy.
Because in the Coalition scum always rises to the top.
phoenixRed
Trump hasnt been quiet at all though! he has most definitely ramped up the distraction. As Rachel Maddow put it. He is deliberately doing distraction by behaving disgracefully. the other point she made is that he doesnt particularly care about how his conduct appears. it is a means to an end for him.
This points to him knowing that any moment, the goods on him will be dumped and he is doing his best to show that the media is fake and reporting a pack of lies
Boerwar
enjoying reading your posts. Welcome back!!
BW being abusive as always.
It’s fun seeing that TV clip of Abbott saying that there needs to be more democracy in Liberal Party Branches in the selection of candidates because lobbyists and party factions have too much say in the selections. He says this is why party membership is ‘hemorrhaging’ (The NSW Lib Party say membership in their branches is actually growing).
Poor Tones! Twelve months ago a ‘right size’ donation to the Libs made via him got his endorsement of your person or whatever decision you wanted.
Now him being in favour is the ‘kiss of death’.
Interesting reaction to Trump’s ramping up of attack on the media from the Washington Post, reported in the local West newspaper today. In effect, the article puzzled/pondered the situation that all the lambasting the the US media by Trump was actually strengthening his base. A kind of, “He told us he was hated/despised/lied about by our media” response from his supporters.
With thought, this is not an unusual response. A friend of mine with a German dad who fought throughout WW2 including the Russian front, could never quite believe that Hitler was not a good leader for Germany – long after the war was over. Something similar in Russia, where some older Russians look wistfully back to the days of Stalin as “stable” years in Russia,
My thought would be it is time for the media to really concentrate on the policy mess rather than get side-tracked by the verbals.
It is a given that Trump is – from my perspective – unfit for the role of leader of the free world, but his supporters from places such a Wyoming and West Virginia think he is God’s gift to the peoples of the US if not the world.
Colton,
I think you should change your gravatar again. Sadistic Australian Drongo, would be appropriate. Or SAD, in its short form.
Al Pal
my post directed to PhoenixRed was for you as well.
It does seem to be taking forever. So much is still happening. It is reflected in Trumps more unhinged behaviour of late. Patience is required. Must admit, something I sorely lack!!
c@t
is this Colton same as person who used to post initially? this one sounds really unhinged
BiGD
She was probably under the misapprehension that Muslim men would be wearing camel riding robes.
Did Malcolm Turnbull acknowledge today that the polls are saying loud and clear that the people don’t want him to stay around for a long time in politics? There’s not that many in his party either that want him there for the long haul. In fact, he appears to be the only one that is thinking this way.
First Dog’s analysis of the “new” Abbott manifesto.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/03/first-dog-on-the-moon-decodes-tony-abbotts-completely-unwanted-policy-manifesto
A R is your gravatar from Fallout?
Vic,
Colton 2.0 has just got tickets on himself and thinks he is floating above us mere PBers, from where he can piss all over us. As I said, SAD.
Adrian,
It is Fallout Boy. 🙂
victoria
Monday, July 3, 2017 at 4:59 pm
phoenixRed
Trump hasnt been quiet at all though! he has most definitely ramped up the distraction. As Rachel Maddow put it. He is deliberately doing distraction by behaving disgracefully. the other point she made is that he doesnt particularly care about how his conduct appears. it is a means to an end for him.
*******************************************************
Agreed Victoria – the fact that no major US law firm is prepared to represent Trump – the President Of The United States – and he has to rely on shonk lawyers like Kosowitz and Sekulow ( both under review for their own ‘affairs’ ) stands out as to what they think of the Trump Family and their behaviours …..
…… and Trumps latest disgusting infantile outburst over CNN – that did not so far have him relieved speaks volumes of the insouciance and deprivation of errors of any judgement on his deplorable behaviour on behalf of the party he represents ……. obviously, his claim of being able to shoot someone in broad daylight on 5th Avenue and not loosing a vote is more that a mythical boast …..
*Four Corners* tonight is a report on Trump dodgy deals in Indonesia …..
BiGD
LoL!
adrian @ #570 Monday, July 3rd, 2017 – 5:19 pm
It is. From the very first Fallout, in fact.
n.b. Fallout Boy is a band. The character from Fallout is actually called Vault Boy.
ctar1 @ #576 Monday, July 3, 2017 at 5:27 pm
But you have to pay for your food and bed. 🙂
‘Abbott saying that there needs to be more democracy in Liberal Party Branches in the selection of candidates because lobbyists and party factions have too much say in the selections.’
Weren’t politicians from all sides saying solemnly on the weekend that voters aren’t interested in politicians talking about themselves, but in governing and policy.
When the media quoted Turnbull on this, the tone was as if Brian had discovered something new and significant.
Colton sure is a floater.
V
Ta. Hope your family have recovered from the trauma of 1-5?
The original Fallout game has one of the best opening videos/trailer in any computer game, worth watching even (or especially) if you have no interest them.
https://youtu.be/9SJS2nUE44M
A R,
Fallout Boy is a band. The character from Fallout is actually called Vault Boy.
Which I realised as soon as I pressed ‘Submit’. 😳
‘Centrelink got me an unpaid internship on a submarine’… as an NBN technician and coal stoker.
John Barron paddling desperately to defend the new internships. The panel aren’t on board tonight. 🙂
Good evening all,
It seems the head of Border Force, Roman Q. I think his name is, has hastily decided to take some ” gardening leave ” after a investigation.
Appears the governments white haired boy may, and I stress may, have been up to a bit of mischief.
Interesting to see what unfolds. Turnbull must have been walking in front of black cats the luck he is having.
Cheers.
c@tmomma @ #583 Monday, July 3, 2017 at 5:39 pm
Fallout Boy is also the sidekick to Radioactive Man on the Simpsons.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ZcPymyjUL0
Sohar @ #583 Monday, July 3rd, 2017 – 5:41 pm
Pity the poor bugger that was assigned the “crow’s nest” Lookout!
@Tricot
I don’t think so, you should research WWF Trump on YouTube, its part of his personality.
.Anyone know what this is about?
ABC Radio Melbourne @abcmelbourne 3m3 minutes ago
More
.@PhillipCoorey tells @Raf_Epstein the head of Aust Border Force has been suspended due to “personal behaviour” issues, after investigation
GG,
He is on leave, suspended whatever after a external investigation around certain “behavioural issues.”
Cheers.
GG,
Meant to add not too much else is known atm as to what the issues are.
Cheers.
Thanks AR and C@Tmomma.
I don’t think that I have the patience for No 4.
PhoenixRed
Looking forward to 4 corners tonight!
GG,
“Pity the poor bugger that was assigned the “crow’s nest” Lookout!”
Or the window cleaner.
Boerwar
OH was pleased with yesterday’s performance against Collingwood too!!
Oh how I wish that Quaedvlieg’s misdemeanour could reflect badly on the Potato.
We need to reverse this damage:
https://urbanwronski.com/2017/06/25/corks-pop-over-gonski-con-but-coalition-has-nothing-to-celebrate/
Sally NeighbourVerified account @neighbour_s · 24m24 minutes ago
More
This is the iconic Tanah Lot temple in Bali, soon to be the site of a Trump Tower resort. How on earth??? Find out tonight on #4Corners