A big week for opinion polling hasn’t translated into a big week for BludgerTrack, which records basically no movement at all on two-party preferred, although there’s some movement on the primary vote from the minor to the major parties, the Greens to Labor especially. On the seat projection, the Coalition is up one in Victoria and South Australia, but down one in Queensland. There is a little more activity on the leadership ratings, for which new numbers were provided by Newspoll and Ipsos, with both leaders improving on net approval.
I’ve now reintroduced Ipsos to the model, which had hitherto been excluded because there were only two data points since the election, and one of them – the first poll in November – was a particularly peculiar result. It still is, a little, but the pollster’s three results together now look acceptably normal after bias adjustments which shift of big chunk of the Greens’ surely inflated primary vote to Labor. Since the latest result for Ipsos was better for the Coalition than the last result in particular, it should up relatively strongly for them.
ReachTEL is not included at this stage, because I require more than one result before I can usefully apply bias adjustments, and last week’s efforts for Sky News and Seven effectively count as a single result as they were conducted at the same time. The media did report on a poll it conducted for GetUp! in January, but this is excluded on the basis of being privately conducted.
I’m watching Theres May barely contain her joy/smile whilst doing a press conference about the despicable terrorist attack that will probably win her a second term and trying not to be sick on myself.
Is Shorten paying Massola or is the little runt doing him a favour for free?
BC
And now we know why the USA and UK (and Australia) will never seriously go after the Saudi money supply to really stop terror.
There is nothing that isn’t rehearsed, deliberate or disingenuous about this speech. Do politicians have pre-written ‘terrorist attack response’ speeches filed away somewhere for events like this?
Bushfire:
Good to see you back.
Phylactella
Tuesday, May 23, 2017 at 6:36 pm
“Turkish (or Greek) coffee is never bitter! Loaded with as much sugar as will dissolve!
You can ask for Greek coffee “sketos” if you don’t want the sugar”
Plus if there’s a yiayia nearby she can tell your fortune from the ‘mud’ at the bottom of the cup – usually involves predicting you will be having more children….
Iran is a mixed bag, IMO.
It actively supports with funds and missiles such very nasties as Hamas and Heshbollah.
The latter, when it is not trying to achieve Jewish Genocide Mark 2 in Israel, is very active militarily in Syria – in support of Assad, sometime torturer, mass murderer, user of nerve gas on civilians, and expert in bombing medical centres.
Iran is supporting the very vicious and very murderous Iraqi Shia militias with money, arms and on-ground leadership. These were the militias that did so much to drive Iraqi Sunnis into the arms of ISIS. Their behaviour following the ‘liberation’ of mainly Sunni cities from ISIS has, at times, been utterly bestial.
OTOH, Iran has to an extent sought to re-enter reasonable international discourse by way of cutting a comprehensive deal in exchange for not proceeding with the development of nuclear weapons.
The unfortunate thing for Rouhani (and ultimately for the West) is that the normalization has not been accompanied with rapid economic development – at least partially because of depressed oil prices.
AB
For most of this Century visiting many parts of muslim-controlled Mindanao (and especially adjacent islands such as Solo) was seriously asking for serious trouble. The Thai-Malay border provinces need to be treated with considerable caution. The rest of Indonesia (with possibly West Irian excepted), Malaysia and any muslim-majority areas in Thailand, have generally been safe.
Puff, I remember my great aunties reading my coffee grounds after I finished a greek/turkish/macedonian coffee.
I know it’s gross to talk about the connection between this and the UK election campaign but I hope Corbyn shows some actually emotion in his press statements about it. I mean, other than happiness thinly veiled in sternness. I detected no genuine sadness of empathy in Mays press conference, but maybe that’s my pre-existing bias against her. Even Turnbull looked a little choked up about it in parliament. May was cold as ice.
BW
I agree that Iran is not a cleanskin, but by the same standard we would treat similarly not only Saudi Arabia but also Syria, Turkey, Sudan and Pakistan. But we do not.
Could there be a “Trump” or “Brexit” style result of the not expected ? .
Corbyn storms into 10-point poll lead over Tories in Wales as support surges
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-poll-wales-general-election-2017-16-point-shift-swing-a7749786.html
“I’m watching Theres May barely contain her joy/smile whilst doing a press conference about the despicable terrorist attack… ”
In these situations there must be a better word for people who feed of others misfortune rather than just “exploit”.
Not back. Just waving.
Blanket Criticism
Maybe she is a “Foreigner” 🙂
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rAESnjvz3lQ
Turnbull would have ‘template’ speeches pre-written for events like this. Just add the specific details. It’s a bit like pre-written obituaries for people the MSM consider newsworthy.
It would be interesting to compare the wording of Turnbull’s speech today with what he said about the attack on London Bridge or the attacks in France. It would also be interesting to compare today’s speech with what he said (or didn’t say) about similar attacks in non-European or non English speaking countries.
S
In the broad, agree.
Even at a moment such as this he can’t find it in him to sound presidential. What a loser!
What would we ever have done without good ole Bootstrap Bill telling it how it is? Like we couldn’t work it out for ourselves, at least not so eloquently.
Good writer? You bet.
Vying for equi-protaganist of the Spire? You can bet your sweet bippy.
Trying to pick dunny paper out of his nostrils. He said it best. And why. And, you bet.
BK
Tuesday, May 23, 2017 at 7:01 pm
…
I made a big mistake at the Charles de Gaulle airport to go in to a Starbucks with Mrs BK for a “coffee”. My long black (a description did not at all clock with the “barrista”) was boiling hot, insipid and HUGE (no doubt an American thing). It was an encounter to remeber.
First time I came across it was on some American airline (long forgotten which). I don’t mind airline coffee; it’s free and it contains caffeine. As an airline coffee it was OK. Second time was in Melbourne; I payed; it was like airline coffee; you don’t pay for airline coffee. Brought back memories of the first and last big mac at the first Australian Macdonalds; this will never succeed I thought as I chucked it in the dumpster. I was wrong about MacDonald’s but it looks like I might have been right about starbucks; they seem to open and then close.
Only Comey can confirm. Wonder if he will.
David Lipson is spruiking the Coalitions recent parliamentary form in an ABCNews article tonight. He was a great buy. Cant understand why Sky let him go.
Bushfire Bill
“Not back. Just waving.”
You or Corbyn ? 🙂
It was interesting watch the House of Saud reps and Netanyahu doing a reprise of Turnbull in Washington.
Basically, adulate like crazy and glad hand like crazy while hoping like crazy that your political opponents accept that with Trump, diplomatic intercourse may reasonably be undertaken with a combination of the Jesuits’ mental reservation or the playground Barley Charlie. Nothing counts except getting out of there with your political reputation and the nation’s security more or less intact.
Netanyahu, who was reported to be absolutely ropeable that Trump had spilled top level intel, smiled very broadly while Trump insisted that he had not mentioned the word ‘ISRAEL’ to (Lavrov and Kislyak) and then Netanyahu hastened to usher Trump away from the journos before any more real damage could be done.
Well I wish you’d wave more often.
Iran need to be quickly brought in from the cold and their indiscretions should be dealt with softly.
While on the topic of world shattering importance, the worst cup of coffee I had was in Brazil – of all places. Somehow they conflate coffee and what tastes like condensed milk, into a a ‘white coffee’. This abomination is closely followed by what passes as coffee in France. The French steadfastly refuse to change their tastes in coffee anywhere near that offered in Italy.
In actual fact, overall, the best coffee is made right here in Oz. Even Starbuck’s Oz muck tastes better than the same item in Seattle.
Poroti – Since the start of the election campaign, when he stopped being defined by the Tory media and people started listening to him, Corbyn’s popularity has jumped astronomically. I doubt he can win. But it looks like he’s gonna give Theresa a hell of a fright. I wish I could vote for him.
socrates @ #1649 Tuesday, May 23, 2017 at 8:05 pm
I also made a comment earlier on trams, another of our shared interests.
Why does Australia have in general such good coffee?
Immigration and multiculturalism.
I wonder how many xenophobes reflect on that with their morning coffee?
More questions on how much the bank levy will actually raise.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/may/23/banking-levy-could-fall-half-a-billion-dollars-short-analysts-say
I’ve never been to Brazil, but without doubt the absolute worst coffee I’ve ever had was in the US. They somehow manage to make even black coffee with no sugar super sweet. And I was forced to drink black coffee because their version of ‘flat white’ was like a latte overdosed with sugar. Disgusting.
tricot @ #1677 Tuesday, May 23, 2017 at 8:52 pm
I’ve given up on hoping for good black coffee from anywhere in Oz, I get a strong cappuccino instead. Maybe Melbourne serves it, but it doesn’t seem to exist anywhere outside the capital cities, that’s for sure, except occasionally if you are very lucky.
Mostly I have a pot of strong tea when I am in a cafe, at least they can’t stuff that up.
At home or down the gorges I make my own turkish, but with no sugar. Best coffee I ever had was in a turkish sidewalk cafe in Montreal a very long time ago, in tiny cups, very sweet, with of course mud at the bottom of the cup.
tricot @ #1677 Tuesday, May 23, 2017 at 8:52 pm
You should try Burmese tea. It contains a significant amount of sweetened condensed milk and is flavoured with some sort of awfulness. One of the few times I’ve been grateful for the terrible tea/coffee served up when visiting public servants is when we had a meeting with a government department in Yangon and they went very easy on the sweetened condensed milk and awfulness.
socrates @ #1661 Tuesday, May 23, 2017 at 8:24 pm
The Taliban would be stuffed were it not for Pakistan.
Why should Australia send young men and women to risk death or maiming in Afghanistan while our Govt and the US ignore Pakistan’s role?
antonbruckner11 @ #1678 Tuesday, May 23, 2017 at 8:53 pm
A lot depends on the success UK Labours’ get out the vote effort relative to that of the conservatives. If he’s popular with the base and they mobilise on mass we may see an upset.
Manchester plod have arrested a 23yo male in connection with the Manchester bombing.
I want them to kill him now. Screaming for mercy and his fucking God as they pull the trigger against his head.
Kill him. Right now. No mercy. Execute this scum fucking pig.
Jeremy Corbyn took a party that was wrecked by neoliberal vandals, and he is doing a good job of repairing the damage. It is unrealistic to expect such a massive repair job to be completed in a short time, particularly when the vandals are throwing rocks at you the whole time. He deserves a lot of respect for his work.
I am absolutely horrified by the attack in Hampshire. I am reminded of a quote of some-one or other; ‘There are some causes I might die for but none I would kill for.’
After I had been in the US for a while I worked out how to order something not completely unlike a long black:
“A double shot into a small cup, Spray 5 fluid ounces of boiling water. Done.”
You had to talk slowly and clearly.
They would invariably put 8-10 fluid ounces but it was usually drinkable.
On time the girl serving looked at me and said ‘so you want a long black’, I looked at her name tag and it said she was from WA, she said she worked in a cafe there, that was the best coffee I had while in the US.
Rome isn’t bad, 80 euro cents a cup.
oops
Attack in Manchester.
Geelong Flyer:
On news reports of his arrest that I’ve seen there’s no indication of religious intent. What have you seen on this front?
Bill Shorten took a party that was wrecked by factional warlords, and he is doing a good job of repairing the damage. It is unrealistic to expect such a massive repair job to be completed in a short time, particularly when the warlords are throwing rocks at you the whole time. He deserves a lot of respect for his work.
millennial @ #1693 Tuesday, May 23, 2017 at 9:32 pm
The polls indicate he is reaping the rewards for his work.
Geelon Flyer I can’t believe that saving the phone and internet records of every brit american and australian hasn’t achieved a damn thing. Maybe we need a government agent present to monitor us personally when we use these services.
He has DONE a GREAT job of repairing the divisions after Labor was voted out of office 4 years ago. The naysayers can continue to carp and whinge, but the scoreboard (ie polls) speak for themselves.
Site is fucked. Crikey is fucked. You sellout Stephen Mayne
Nicholas,
Considering that Labour will probably have a net loss of seats at this election, you have an interesting definition of ‘repairing the damage’.
geelong flyer @ #1687 Tuesday, May 23, 2017 at 9:21 pm
Yeah, right.
But what if it turns out he had nothing to do with it?
Or what if he was involved and information about others involved could potentially be extracted from him?
I think you logged into the wrong blog.
Try here: http://www.heraldsun.com.au/blogs/andrew-bolt
geelong flyer @ #1697 Tuesday, May 23, 2017 at 9:54 pm
Stephen Mayne is long gone from Crikey.