BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

Lots of new data but still no movement on BludgerTrack’s voting intention trend, although there’s a little more going on with leaders’ net approval ratings.

A big week for opinion polling hasn’t translated into a big week for BludgerTrack, which records basically no movement at all on two-party preferred, although there’s some movement on the primary vote from the minor to the major parties, the Greens to Labor especially. On the seat projection, the Coalition is up one in Victoria and South Australia, but down one in Queensland. There is a little more activity on the leadership ratings, for which new numbers were provided by Newspoll and Ipsos, with both leaders improving on net approval.

I’ve now reintroduced Ipsos to the model, which had hitherto been excluded because there were only two data points since the election, and one of them – the first poll in November – was a particularly peculiar result. It still is, a little, but the pollster’s three results together now look acceptably normal after bias adjustments which shift of big chunk of the Greens’ surely inflated primary vote to Labor. Since the latest result for Ipsos was better for the Coalition than the last result in particular, it should up relatively strongly for them.

ReachTEL is not included at this stage, because I require more than one result before I can usefully apply bias adjustments, and last week’s efforts for Sky News and Seven effectively count as a single result as they were conducted at the same time. The media did report on a poll it conducted for GetUp! in January, but this is excluded on the basis of being privately conducted.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,847 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

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  1. That said – in the US they burn the milk and make it watery/bitter and could not find a decent coffee in Netherlands… my ancestral home

  3. FMD the Snowy 2.0 brain fart has increased in cost by 50% and we haven’t even issued tenders for the Pre Feasibility Study.

    A dose of reality from the PFS will add another significant helping of public dollars to the $3b currently on the table, then we can count on another helping of public cash when we do the full Feasibility Study, and you can count on a blowout in time an cost during EPCM (engineering, procurement, construction and management).

    Making the heroic assumption that Snowy 2.0 will be commissioned, my bet is on $7.5b as the final cost.

    Lets put $1.5b directly into grid connected solar and battery subsidies, and another $1.5b at large scale wind (say a 50% subsidy for each over and above the STC/LGC), 12 weeks from the first subsidy payment we’d see energy being generated from the solar systems, and probably 2 years for large scale wind.

    On the other hand, the Snowy brain fart won’t see energy generated for probably 10 years.

  5. The few times I’ve been to very religious countries I’ve been very circumspect about my atheism. Taking a stand is extremely unlikely to make any positive difference and will quite possibly get me into serious trouble.

  6. grimace @ #1605 Tuesday, May 23, 2017 at 6:30 pm

    The few times I’ve been to very religious countries I’ve been very circumspect about my atheism. Taking a stand is extremely unlikely to make any positive difference and will quite possibly get me into serious trouble.

    I don’t like to lie unless it’s to streamline bureaucratic processes.

  7. Turkish (or Greek) coffee is never bitter! Loaded with as much sugar as will dissolve!
    You can ask for Greek coffee “sketos” if you don’t want the sugar

  9. CTar1

    Greg Sheridan yelling abuse because he thought he was being shut down, and Barron trying to explain that he’d got it all wrong was certainly entertaining!

  10. Barney in Go Dau
    Tuesday, May 23, 2017 at 6:36 pm

    grimace @ #1605 Tuesday, May 23, 2017 at 6:30 pm

    The few times I’ve been to very religious countries I’ve been very circumspect about my atheism. Taking a stand is extremely unlikely to make any positive difference and will quite possibly get me into serious trouble.

    I don’t like to lie unless it’s to streamline bureaucratic processes.
    **************************************************************
    Nor do I but on occasion, needs must….

  11. I had a friend and colleague in the 1960’s with an impressive fund of stories about Melbourne low-life.
    He told the story of someone he knew who was an industrial chemist during the 1930’s. This person was asked to formulate a glue for sticking the weekly specials list to grocers’ windows. The original mix fell off too quickly!
    He brewed a glue which bonded the paper to the glass – permanently! Shortly afterwards, complaints came in, and he was sacked!
    Some time later, my friend saw him studying in the Public Library.
    Q – what are you doing?
    I’m going to make a bomb!!
    Q. That’s nice – but where will you put it?
    It doesn’t matter – It couldn’t do anything but good!

    Remembering this today should be considered callous and tasteless. It does point up the problem with young men with a sense of grievance combined with a compassion deficit. Like the poor, they will always be with us. The best we can hope that most will be discovered before they do their worst.

  13. lord haw haw of arabia @ #1610 Tuesday, May 23, 2017 at 6:44 pm

    Barney in Go Dau
    Tuesday, May 23, 2017 at 6:36 pm
    grimace @ #1605 Tuesday, May 23, 2017 at 6:30 pm
    The few times I’ve been to very religious countries I’ve been very circumspect about my atheism. Taking a stand is extremely unlikely to make any positive difference and will quite possibly get me into serious trouble.
    I don’t like to lie unless it’s to streamline bureaucratic processes.
    **************************************************************
    Nor do I but on occasion, needs must….

    Yes, I often lied to get drunk before I was 18, but I haven’t had to do it since.

    As for lies whilst drunk …

    I can’t remember. 🙂

  14. As it is the media that gives a terror attack value it is in my view to quite appropriate to treat terror porn as terror porn.

  15. BK
    <
    Tuesday, May 23, 2017 at 6:49 pm
    I’ll give you the big tip. If you want a decent cup of coffee don’t go anywhere near a Starbucks franchise!

    You only do it once.

  18. Fred and Ratsak
    I made a big mistake at the Charles de Gaulle airport to go in to a Starbucks with Mrs BK for a “coffee”. My long black (a description did not at all clock with the “barrista”) was boiling hot, insipid and HUGE (no doubt an American thing). It was an encounter to remeber.

  22. Would it be real Turkish coffee if tgere were no grounds in the bottom of the cup? note: I am no expert. A Greek fella taught me how to make it.

  24. “Tragedy porn”… good namefor it.

    QT interrupted because of the Manchester bombing? We’ll get used to it.

    Best idea is to give the UK, France and Germany a big miss when travelling. Italy, Portugal, Belgium, and ah… Switzerland. Bombs don’t go off in any of those countries. A quick sashay to the Adriatic Balkans,then back through the emirates countries.

    Home in time for dinner on the sunny NSW mid-North Coast. No worries about picking nuts, bolts and washers out of your arse, just need to avoid the drunks careening out of the local bowlo, thinking they’re good to drive.

  25. Bemused/bk

    10o% agree!

    Coffee tastes better from smaller shops, for example Jamaica Blue, My Sweet Memories.

    Not the big huge franchised stores…

  27. If you want a good coffee in China, go to a McCafe (amazing as it sounds). They have adopted the Australian terminology (e.g. flat white) for several coffees although they also sell some of those American abominations. They also sell lamingtons!

    In Japan, some of the best tasting coffee comes from DIY machines at 7-eleven stores.

  28. citizen @ #1627 Tuesday, May 23, 2017 at 7:13 pm

    If you want a good coffee in China, go to a McCafe (amazing as it sounds). They have adopted the Australian terminology (e.g. flat white) for several coffees although they also sell some of those American abominations. They also sell lamingtons!
    In Japan, some of the best tasting coffee comes from DIY machines at 7-eleven stores.

    In Vietnam just walk along the street.

  30. Greg Sheridan in hysterics over terrorism, because, without the threat, he and his mate Abbott have nothing to justify their existence.

  32. I still laugh at Starbucks attempt to open up in Adelaide. It is a distant amusing memory now. Fell flatter than a cold flat white.

  38. Evening all. Sympathy to the families of the dead in yet another awful terrorist attack in Manchester.

    The war on terror goes on. Yet it is pretty clear that it is not working. Whoever was responsible for the Manchester bombing was capable of buying the components, making an effective bomb, working out where to detonate it, and being able to recruit and motivate an individual to do it. That takes organisation and money.

    The war on terror will never be won, or even progress, until the scope of the “war” is widened to include those who fund terror. Rather than visit the Saudi king, Trump needs to cut off his countries money supply to terrorists. Indeed, any support for this medieval, brutal and inequitable regime, needs to stop.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/aug/31/combat-terror-end-support-saudi-arabia-dictatorships-fundamentalism

  39. Citizen:

    I didn’t know Gloria Jeans had been sold by the happy clappers. Good to know, but I still wouldn’t buy their coffee!

  40. Just to be clear, I was referring to cutting off support for the Saudi regime, not Trump. But you can lump them both in the same asylum if you like.

  41. Don’t go to China for Coffee, go for Tea, they have some of the best Teavin the world, and have some nice Tea Houses!

  42. socrates @ #1638 Tuesday, May 23, 2017 at 7:43 pm

    Evening all. Sympathy to the families of the dead in yet another awful terrorist attack in Manchester.
    The war on terror goes on. Yet it is pretty clear that it is not working. Whoever was responsible for the Manchester bombing was capable of buying the components, making an effective bomb, working out where to detonate it, and being able to recruit and motivate an individual to do it. That takes organisation and money.
    The war on terror will never be won, or even progress, until the scope of the “war” is widened to include those who fund terror. Rather than visit the Saudi king, Trump needs to cut off his countries money supply to terrorists. Indeed, any support for this medieval, brutal and inequitable regime, needs to stop.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/aug/31/combat-terror-end-support-saudi-arabia-dictatorships-fundamentalism

    Indeed. I posted similar sentiments earlier along with not really getting all the hostility to Iran which seems to be actually moving in a reformist direction and certainly is not behind ISIS or Al Quaeda.

  43. From the NY Times equivalent of BK’s dawn patrol. Applies equally to Australia which is just as cowardly on AGW as Trump’s mob:

    Many Americans think of China and India as economic juggernauts because of their rapid progress in recent decades. But it’s worth remembering that both countries remain vastly poorer than the United States or Europe.

    The material living standards of a typical Chinese citizen are only one-fourth as high as that of a typical American, and the equivalent fraction for an Indian is one-ninth. Hundreds of millions of people in both China and India live in poverty, unable to afford basics — decent food, shelter, medical care and education — that Westerners take for granted.

    All of which makes especially impressive China’s and India’s recent commitment to combating climate change. For them, any sacrifice of economic growth means much more than it does in the United States or Europe. Yet both China and India are well ahead of their targets for reducing carbon emissions, as set by the Paris Agreement.

    “China’s emissions of carbon dioxide appear to have peaked more than 10 years sooner than its government had said they would,” The Times’s Editorial Board writes in today’s paper. “And India is now expected to obtain 40 percent of its electricity from non-fossil fuel sources by 2022, eight years ahead of schedule.”

    As the editorial notes — and I encourage you to read it — their progress also highlights the cowardice and short-sightedness of the Trump administration’s climate stance. “China and India are finding that doing right by the planet need not carry a big economic cost and can actually be beneficial,” as the editorial notes.

  44. Anyone know how to ask for a long black in Spain to avoid the dreaded “cafe Americana”?
    I’m thinking “cafe espresso con un poco agua caliente” literally an espresso with a little hot water but it’s a bit long winded.

  46. The Perfect Bootstrap.

    Leadershit and James Massola go together like vegemite and toast.

    First comes the article, and THEN come the self-referential, but entirely disengenuous quoting of self in the next article.

    James Massola quoting… James Massola… er… sorry…”Fairfax Media” (click on the link)

    On Tuesday, for the second question time in a row, the Turnbull government focused on revelations published by Fairfax Media on Monday that Labor’s shadow cabinet was split over whether to back the 0.5 per cent rise in the Medicare levy for all taxpayers, or just those earning more than $87,000.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/shadow-cabinet-leaks-reveal-labor-split-over-medicare-levy-rise-20170521-gw9lm6.html

    Massola is so far up himself, he’s picking dunny paper out of his nostrils.

  49. Bemused
    Thanks. I think you are correct on Iran too. The hardline regime under Ahmadinejad was replaced by the more moderate Rouhani almost four years ago now, yet western shock jocks still go on as though nothing has changed.

  50. I know people who won’t visit muslim countries in Asia because they are worried about terrorism – seriously. But they happily go off to Europe or the US.

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