BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

Lots of new data but still no movement on BludgerTrack’s voting intention trend, although there’s a little more going on with leaders’ net approval ratings.

A big week for opinion polling hasn’t translated into a big week for BludgerTrack, which records basically no movement at all on two-party preferred, although there’s some movement on the primary vote from the minor to the major parties, the Greens to Labor especially. On the seat projection, the Coalition is up one in Victoria and South Australia, but down one in Queensland. There is a little more activity on the leadership ratings, for which new numbers were provided by Newspoll and Ipsos, with both leaders improving on net approval.

I’ve now reintroduced Ipsos to the model, which had hitherto been excluded because there were only two data points since the election, and one of them – the first poll in November – was a particularly peculiar result. It still is, a little, but the pollster’s three results together now look acceptably normal after bias adjustments which shift of big chunk of the Greens’ surely inflated primary vote to Labor. Since the latest result for Ipsos was better for the Coalition than the last result in particular, it should up relatively strongly for them.

ReachTEL is not included at this stage, because I require more than one result before I can usefully apply bias adjustments, and last week’s efforts for Sky News and Seven effectively count as a single result as they were conducted at the same time. The media did report on a poll it conducted for GetUp! in January, but this is excluded on the basis of being privately conducted.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,847 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

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  1. Good morning /afternoon from Iguassu Falls Brazil/Argentina where I have just been up in a helicopter over them, amazing sight

  2. Al Pal
    Saturday, May 20, 2017 at 6:13 am
    A quite remarkable piece of our Earth.
    It is obviously you have been,it is incredible , would post a picture but know not allowed

  3. White House Tells World Leaders That They Must Tell Trump He’s Doing Better Than Obama

    Foreign leaders are being told that they are to compliment Trump on his Electoral College win and compare him favorably to President Obama as part of the rules for meeting with the President during his first foreign trip.

    Tips for Leaders Meeting Trump: Keep It Short and Give Him a Win

  4. Trump boasted about firing ‘nut job’ Comey to Russian officials: report

    The New York Times reports that an official White House document that summarized Trump’s May 10 meeting with Russian officials showed that Trump told them that he felt a sense of relief after firing Comey due to his role in investigating Russia’s involvement in the 2016 presidential election.

    “I just fired the head of the F.B.I,” Trump said, according to the document. “He was crazy, a real nut job… I faced great pressure because of Russia. That’s taken off.”

  5. Russia probe reaches current White House official, people familiar with the case say

    The law enforcement investigation into possible coordination between Russia and the Trump campaign has identified a current White House official as a significant person of interest, showing that the probe is reaching into the highest levels of government, according to people familiar with the matter.

    ( *** Current speculation that it s Jared Kushner )

  6. I was looking at the weather, and wound up on this site:

    Is there some sort of fashion for having pale grey on white as the text? Is it what used to be called ‘groovy’?

    My eyesight is not what it was, but even so I think many people with good vision would struggle to make out that text.

    ‘Broadcast Australia is a BAI Communications company’ is part of their mantra. I don’t think much of their communications.

  7. CNN’s Tapper: White House leaks appear to be coming from staffers ‘concerned about Trump’s fitness’

    NN’s Jake Tapper on Friday placed the blame for the state of Donald Trump’s administration squarely on the president’s shoulders, noting the historic number of leaks coming from the White House are spurred, in part, by “people that are concerned about this president and his temperament and his fitness.”

  8. Mari, at one point about halfway up on the climb from the bottom of the cataracts, where the zodiac left us, back to the top I was so overcome (on a protruding lookout that somehow elbowed out midair) by the power and enormity of it all, not to mention the roar, that I was reduced to tears, a blubbering mess.

  9. Paul Ryan spooked by leaked audio on Trump’s ties to Putin — and fears more to follow

    A Washington Post report transcribed the recording of a June 15 meeting at the Capitol, where Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), the House Majority Leader, raised concerns that Trump and Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA) might have accepted payment from the Russian president.

    Now that the tape has been made public — although its origins are unclear — Ryan is worried others might surface.

  10. Good Morning Bludgers 🙂
    I heard Julie Bishop in the US on the radio yesterday. She was following White House orders and big-upping Trump. It was sick-inducing.

  11. Don

    I have found that grey text on white in a number of ‘coffee table’ books and I agree, it is most uncomfortable for the reader. Almost as annoying as white text on black.

  12. Trump-Russia probe now includes possible cover-up, Congress is told

    WASHINGTON — Investigators into Russian meddling in the U.S. presidential elections are now also probing whether White House officials have engaged in a cover-up, according to members of Congress who were briefed Friday by Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein.

    Read more here:

  13. ItzaDream
    Saturday, May 20, 2017 at 7:32 am
    Mari, at one point about halfway up on the climb from the bottom of the cataracts, where the zodiac left us, back to the top I was so overcome (on a protruding lookout that somehow elbowed out midair) by the power and enormity of it all, not to mention the roar, that I was reduced to tears, a blubbering mess.

    Doing that tomorrow ,did helicopter today,think I will be too. Staying at Hotel de Cataratas Belmond. One minute from falls,what is lovely when the park closes at 5pm on day visitors can wander around taking pics ,today noone else was around when I was walking the trails ,had to beat a storm home, pouring now

  14. Has BK been locked out again or is he taking time to scratch up something positive for LNP and Trumpet to provide “balance”? Heroic challenge to undertake! BTW, was there a federal budget recently? If so, it’s sunk quicker than the Titanic on a midnight cruise in the media. Have the MSM given up on selling it as Trumble’s brilliant comeback?

  15. It’s Time Saturday, May 20, 2017 at 8:02 am

    Has BK been locked out again or is he taking time to scratch up something positive for LNP and Trumpet to provide “balance”?

    Apologies Its Time – I have no wish to step on BKs toes – there is NO-ONE as good as BK – so I try restrict my posts from NON_mainstream sources ….

    BUT – Comey is a nut-job, now investigating a Russian cover-up, Jared Kushner allegedly now being investigated …… oh and ALL the world leaders are being told to be nice to Donald and kiss his ass when they meet him ……

    sorry can’t help myself – I want to see this buffoon in handcuffs – and the US to return to normal

  16. Confessions
    Saturday, May 20, 2017 at 7:58 am

    Sounds like you’re having a lovely time in Brazil!

    I am highlight of my trip,only sorry can’t transfer picture of falls to PB ,just won’t, no problem with twitter email etc

  17. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Now an as yet un-named senior White House adviser “close to the President”, is under attention with respect to ties with Russia,
    Donald Trump told Russians firing ‘nut job’ James Comey eased pressure from investigation. What an idiot!
    The president isn’t big on foreign travel, but he’ll have his needs accommodated on the nine-day jaunt, including his beloved steak with a side of ketchup. What havoc will he wreak on this trip I wonder?
    Now Kate McClymont gets on to the job on the big tax fraud. I was wondering yesterday how could Cranston NOT look at his son’s amazing wealth and wonder where it came from?
    The AFR also goes inside the ATO scandal. Google.
    Doug Cameron played a role in getting the tax scam into the open. And it appears that up to nine government agencies’ contract workers have been affected.
    And said contractors are disgusted and furious over it.
    Michael West puts the tax scam into perspective.
    Paula Matthewson says that Albo is fighting for something much bigger than the leadership. It’s the values that the Labor Party should stand for.
    All is not well in the Sydney University residential college.

  18. Section 2 . . .

    Peter Hartcher wonders how the Trump chaos will affect our alliance with the US. The last paragraph is good.
    Trump shouldn’t worry though. Mesma has said it’s all OK.
    Although it’s off to a slowish start the Bunning foray in to the UK may well give things there a big shake up.
    Elizabeth Knight looks at the various gambling games revolving around Trump.
    And Noel Towell writes “Tax authorities were warned two years ago that ATO managers were routinely breaching policies and bypassing internal controls and their “sacred cow” status protected them from detection.”
    Next Wednesday the NSW Coroner will hand down his report on the Lindt siege. The SMH says there are six question to be answered.
    Michael Pascoe writes about the effect of the budget and Labor’s $3000 maximum deductibility for taxation management on not only accountants but also quantity surveyors.–and-quantity-surveyors-20170519-gw8y54.html
    Mike Seccombe says that Turnbull leads a government that seeks political capital by making it harder for foreigners to settle or to buy real estate here, and that stresses integration and “Australian values”. Whenever immigration is mentioned – and it’s mentioned a lot – there is always a “but” attached.
    Stephen Koukoulas laments that having inherited $273 billion from the Labor government in September 2013, the Coalition’s policies have added a rib-cracking $220 billion in just 3 years and 8 months, and all of this in a climate of decent global economic growth, a lower Aussie dollar and record low interest rates.

  19. Section 3 . . .

    Former Vice President Joe Biden had harsh words for former presidential candidate Hillary Clinton on Thursday night. “I never thought she was the correct candidate,” Biden said at the SALT conference in Las Vegas, according to Fusion reporter Hamilton Nolan. “I thought I was the correct candidate.” I think he was right.
    A very good contribution from Laurie Oakes on the value of quality journalism. Google.
    And Ben Eltham writes about how we should put a levy on the likes of Facebook and Google to fund good journalism.
    As Australia considers extending its presence in Afghanistan, key figures have split over what has been achieved in the Middle East writes Karen Middleton.
    Crispin Hull wonders why we and our allies are still appeasing North Korea.
    In a long article Jack Waterford talks about how top cops massage the news.
    The Australian headlines that the Catholic education system has declared war on the Turnbull government with plans for a ¬nationwide mining tax-style campaign against the Gonski 2 education reforms, which it claims will rip funds from the most in-need primary schools and force closures. Google.
    Ebony Bennet writes that Palaszczuk and Turnbull governments are Adani mine’s lonely fans.
    Ross Gittins’ conclusion is that the opportunity Gonski 2.0 presents to have both sides politics accept and entrench needs-based federal funding, and an end to sectarian deals, should be grabbed with both hands. There’s nothing to stop Labor, or anyone else, coming along later and fixing its weaknesses.
    This article via the Philadelphia Times says that it’s time to face the fact that Trump doesn’t know what he’s doing.

  20. Section 4 . . .

    Peter van Onselen writes that the bank levy is a failure of good policymaking, Liberal philosophy and it risks setting a precedent for similar ad hoc taxes when fiscal strains require it. The government doesn’t care because being at war with the banks is good short term politicking. Google.
    Anthony Weiner’s going to spend 27 months in the slammer.
    There is significant overcrowding of trains on the Blue Mountains route and this is affecting tourism, not to mention pissing off the regular commuters.
    Michael Gordon writes that the calculated cruelty on Manus Island is a reflection on all of us.
    The nation’s most powerful doctors’ group has thrown its weight behind same-sex marriage for the first time, declaring it a public health issue and calling on politicians to end the divisive debate. It’s not going to go away Malcolm!
    So maybe the Spaniards can’t build canoes either!

  21. Section 5 . . . Cartoon Corner

    John Shakespeare’s idea of Trump’s diplomacy.

    No words are necessary here.

    Alan Moir goes to Roman history to describe Trump’s doings.

    Broelman on Trump’s latest whinge.

    Cathy Wilcox takes us back to a prescient cartoon she did for CNN on the Trump inauguration.

    David Rowe has really taken depicting Trump as a child to heart!

    Ron Tandberg sees Comical Ali off.
    Inside the ATO with David Pope.
    Mark Knight reckons it’s far from over for Dan Andrews and his problems with the fire fighters.
    Jon Kudelka sees Trump off on his trip to the Middle East.

  22. BK
    Thank you you are a gentleman as well as a scholar, plus a great Dawn Patroller scribe, which I appreciate being overseas

  23. Thanks BK. Obviously lots to get through today. Perhaps Trump’s downfall will be his bragging and mouthing off to anyone.

  24. Not sure how Bill can get a movement to Libs of 47.5, when all recent polls show the best they can muster is 47. Almost as likely to be 46. Strange.

  25. bk @ #31 Saturday, May 20, 2017 at 8:26 am

    The Australian headlines that the Catholic education system has declared war on the Turnbull government with plans for a ¬nationwide mining tax-style campaign against the Gonski 2 education reforms, which it claims will rip funds from the most in-need primary schools and force closures. Google.

    If the Catholic education system has enough money to run scare campaigns, why the hell are they receiving public money?

  26. And to be fair to the NAVY; they do sea trials to shake down new ships; it is not as if hundreds of them are built. When doing sea trials they found problems; it is to be expected. If the Australian ships have done more miles then it would seem the Spanish navy failed to do their job. As the azipods are not an unusual item I would not have put my money on them being a problem’; they do however seem to be having problems with them. The cruise ship that failed near Melbourne had a azipod issue also.

  27. Assange to spend rest of his life in self imposed prison…
    If Louise Mencsh is correct there is no chance Assange will walk out of the embassy after passing stolen electoral data to Putin

    The US will be fine with him rotting in London gaol if they can’t get him.
    I’d say it’s the most hollow victory posssible for Julian..
    From the Guardian.
    Julian Assange has declared that “the proper war is just commencing” after Swedish prosecutors unexpectedly dropped their investigation into an allegation of rape against him, ending a torturous seven-year extradition battle that nevertheless leaves significant question marks over his future.

  28. This is an arresting fact: that since the early 1980s, national productivity in Australia has risen by 80%, yet real wages have risen by only 15%. It’s the result of deliberate policy choices by federal governments. National income has been redistributed away from wages and towards profits. Those profits are feeding executive pay and speculative, parasitic financial activity.

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