BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

Lots of new data but still no movement on BludgerTrack’s voting intention trend, although there’s a little more going on with leaders’ net approval ratings.

A big week for opinion polling hasn’t translated into a big week for BludgerTrack, which records basically no movement at all on two-party preferred, although there’s some movement on the primary vote from the minor to the major parties, the Greens to Labor especially. On the seat projection, the Coalition is up one in Victoria and South Australia, but down one in Queensland. There is a little more activity on the leadership ratings, for which new numbers were provided by Newspoll and Ipsos, with both leaders improving on net approval.

I’ve now reintroduced Ipsos to the model, which had hitherto been excluded because there were only two data points since the election, and one of them – the first poll in November – was a particularly peculiar result. It still is, a little, but the pollster’s three results together now look acceptably normal after bias adjustments which shift of big chunk of the Greens’ surely inflated primary vote to Labor. Since the latest result for Ipsos was better for the Coalition than the last result in particular, it should up relatively strongly for them.

ReachTEL is not included at this stage, because I require more than one result before I can usefully apply bias adjustments, and last week’s efforts for Sky News and Seven effectively count as a single result as they were conducted at the same time. The media did report on a poll it conducted for GetUp! in January, but this is excluded on the basis of being privately conducted.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,847 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

  1. Victoria
    Yes – we have to be careful about looking at the excuses for behaviour rather than the reasons for it.

    At the moment, if you’re a disaffected young person (usually male) who hates yourself and the world, and is determined on suicide, you can guarantee yourself screeds of post-suicide attention if you take several others with you whilst shouting “Allah Akbar!” – even if you’ve never seen the inside of a mosque.

    (I don’t know about others, but when I was an angst ridden teenager, all suicidal fantasies included me hovering over my funeral listening to the eulogies….)

    Martin Bryant was white and well off. We can’t explain him away as a terrorist. But the body count he left behind was still real.

    We need to work out how much these terrorists acts are due to radical Islam per se and how much are due to attention seekers with a death wish – because if we get the causes wrong, we’ll be looking at the wrong solutions.

  2. Victoria
    You are correct. I think it is obvious that ISIL recruiters have learnt to target the mentally ill and the marginalised. There have also been quite a few with criminal records. Several of the Australians who died fighting in Syria had convictions for drug crimes and had been in criminal gangs. Nobody with a stable job and a family they love wants to become a terrorist. The recruiters should be jailed for life, as they are effectively organising acts of murder. Some have kept recruiting while in jail.

    Of course, that is all just as much a perversion of Islam as it is of any other religion. And there will always be some such vulnerable people in our society, hence this will not stop. Hence my view that Saudi Arabia and Wahabism, the source of the extremism, needs to be held accountable. I am not the only person who holds that view.
    http://www.salon.com/2016/01/06/saudi_arabia_funds_and_exports_islamic_extremism_the_truth_behind_the_toxic_u_s_relationship_with_the_theocratic_nation/

  3. The splash headline of “Mad” Mike Stutchbury’s AFR is “Cynical ALP puts budget in jeopardy.” The tory rags are really pissing their pants.

  4. STEP 1 – Tearful and poignant
    cartoons will be printed.
    STEP 2 – Facebook filters will be changed.
    STEP 3 – Famous landmarks will be lit up in solidarity.
    STEP 4 – Candle light vigils will be held.
    STEP 5 – Quickly shift the focus away from actual victims and worry about ‘islamophobia’ and the never eventuating backlash against muslims.
    STEP 6 – Blame anyone and everything (Trump, Charlie Hebdo, Iraq, the crusades etc) except for the ideology responsible for the attack.
    STEP 7 – Politicians will sprout the usual vacuous platitudes.
    “The terrorists will not win”
    “Diversity is our strength”
    “Islam is a religion of peace”
    STEP 8 – Allow more refugees and migrants from Islamic countries into the west.
    STEP 9 – Do nothing and wait for the inevitable next attack carried out by a radical muslim on innocent people.
    Step 10 – Repeat

  5. If I had one wish today, it would be that the politicians and the MSM immediately stopped grandstanding over the Manchester tragedy and left all public comment to the relevant authorities.

    The “disaster porn” industry is particularly distasteful and all media outlets are complicit in this. Why do we need stories and photos of two of the young victims (presumably the media hounded the families to obtain these)? Can their families and friends not be allowed to grieve in private?

    Going by the ABC online live blog today, Turnbull is once again in full flight over “we will protect you”. He just cannot help himself. A formal Prime Ministerial statement is appropriate; all associated hyperbole is not appropriate.

  6. Sydney was hit by a particularly loud thunderstorm around 5:00AM this morning. There are media reports that some people were concerned enough to call the police, e.g: http://www.9news.com.au/national/2017/05/24/07/22/explosive-thunder-sparks-concerns-for-sydneysiders?ocid=9newssfb

    Early morning thunderstorms are unusual but not that uncommon in Sydney. The report doesn’t say, but I suspect that those concerned enough to consider calling the police have been rattled by events in Manchester. That would be a sad turn of events and a minor win for the bad guys.

  7. Good morning all,

    Melbourne Ports, the holy grail of greens ill found hubris, has one of the highest concentrations of Catholic schools in the country. Good luck with that Sarah.

    I wonder why Sarah back flipped so quickly that she put her back out ? Perhaps it was the reality of the Mums and Dads in those leafy inner city seats with their children in a Catholic primary schools taking a new look at the greens ideology and not liking what they were seeing.

    Surely the greens would not be swayed by something so common and mainstream as how Sarah HY’s brain fart would affect its voting ?

    Back in your box Sarah.

    Cheers

  8. Zoomster

    Agreed.

    And as per my earlier reference of the Melbourne CBD and Time Square rampage. They were not deemed acts of terror as it was not in the name of Islam. Frankly I find this ridiculous. These acts caused terror and human carnage.

  9. I guess Craig Emerson must be a Greens grub.

    Nice try, Pegasus, but no banana.

    Labor are arguing for the Full Gonski. Always have. Always will.

    Labor and the Teachers Federation are simply pointing out what the Coalition government’s new deal represents. The Greens certainly aren’t. They want to let it through. But then they always have been satisfied with a few crumbs from the Coalition table.

    As far as Craig Emerson is concerned, he is eyeing a future Labor government and telling them to allow this iteration of Gonski through the parliament so that they can add future funding amounts to it.

    Which is all well and good as a pragmatic position. However, that’s not what the ground that Labor wants to fight for Gonski now is all about.

    Not to worry, we get that The Greens have thrown principled stands on issues out in exchange for a little bit of relevance.

  10. Socrates

    And yet Trump visited Saudia Arabia first and for an added touch of irony opened the Centre for combatting extremism. @facepalm@

  11. Victoria
    Exactly! Fighting the fire with one hand while fueling it with the other. Why won’t it go out?
    Zoom
    I agree partly that these are often just angst ridden young men, in an era when many young men feel (with some justification) that the job market and housing market holds nothing for them. The difference is that we have people going around teaching some of these young men how to make bombs.

  12. That morning storm woke me and I admit I thought twice, initially, because there was no rain, and the first two strikes had no lightning that I saw. The third, however, did have lightning so I went back to sleep.

  13. We need to work out how much these terrorists acts are due to radical Islam per se and how much are due to attention seekers with a death wish – because if we get the causes wrong, we’ll be looking at the wrong solutions.

    Well there was that case recently in America where a 19 year old (a common age for the onset of schizophrenia), former Neo Nazi, converted to Islam and then murdered his Neo Nazi room mates for not respecting his religion!

  14. “And yet Trump visited Saudia Arabia first and for an added touch of irony opened the Centre for combatting extremism. @facepalm@”
    Orwellian in the extreme.

  15. silentmajority @ #1740 Wednesday, May 24, 2017 at 2:09 am

    Perhaps you should all cut Arianna Grande some slack about cancelling her tour.
    She is a young girl who has just experienced the most horrible event imaginable – her young fans being literally blown up at one of her concerts – and you want her to continue & direct the money to victims?
    How about you go down to the mall & busk until further notice & give the money to charity.
    Ffs

    She can have as much slack as she likes and of course it is entirely up to her and her management. Different people will react differently and I respect that.
    But I do think the best way to deal with these clowns is to show total contempt and defiance.
    As for me busking… with my talent deficit I think I would be heckled and chased by an angry mob!

  16. Mentally ill people can experience grandiose delusions and some believe they are Jesus or God. It is therefore easy to see in this climate of radical Islam extremism, that those who are unstable, commit atrocities in the name of Allah.

  17. Personally, I think it is long past time to have a radical rethink about how we deal with the mentally unwell in our societies.

    We can’t simply reinstitutionalise them again, however I do believe we need to increase the number of mobile mental health support teams. Too often I read about the lack of funding in this area and I just think that they would be our best line of defence against the sort of murderous rampages or mass casualty attacks that are becoming all too common.

    They could also serve a dual purpose of being able to gain access to the homes of people who have come onto the radar and maybe pick up any questionable activity.

  18. Bemused,
    As for me busking… with my talent deficit I think I would be heckled and chased by an angry mob!

    Maybe you can make your fortune from people paying you not to busk! 😀

  19. Daesh has found a ‘business model’ whereby they call out to confused, alienated and often mentally ill young men of the world (mostly men) and give them something to attach themselves to, someone to blame, a chance to belong to something they see as great and glorious, a shot at vindication, fame, to be feared and respected, and, for some, martyrdom and Paradise. At different times and different places these young men and boys might have attached themselves to anarchist plots, extreme nationalism, communism, fascism, the Nazis, the Khmer Rouge or possibly some of the nihilist far left movements that developed in the 60s and 70s.

  20. Good Morning

    ISIS may target the mentally unwell. When they do they get Mons whatshisname from the siege.

    However be under no illusion a the majority of suicide bombers are sane just zealots.
    Thats what the experts think anyway.

    So don’t demonise the mentally ill by associating them with terrorism. I know that is not the intention of most here but you know what the right wing lot are like. I agree with increased funding for their own sake. We don’t need to use terrorism to argue the case.

    I don’t like the increased funding the government have given to the intel community along with the new laws. I would be more comfortable if the increased funding came without us selling out innocent until proven guilty.

    As we have seen the laws are not applied equally. If your name is Mohammed you get in trouble for what you might say. If you are from the right wing and editor of Quadrant not so much.

    I am for equality before the law and at the moment I just don’t see that.

  21. zoomster @ #1801 Wednesday, May 24, 2017 at 9:26 am

    Victoria
    Yes – we have to be careful about looking at the excuses for behaviour rather than the reasons for it.
    At the moment, if you’re a disaffected young person (usually male) who hates yourself and the world, and is determined on suicide, you can guarantee yourself screeds of post-suicide attention if you take several others with you whilst shouting “Allah Akbar!” – even if you’ve never seen the inside of a mosque.
    (I don’t know about others, but when I was an angst ridden teenager, all suicidal fantasies included me hovering over my funeral listening to the eulogies….)
    Martin Bryant was white and well off. We can’t explain him away as a terrorist. But the body count he left behind was still real.
    We need to work out how much these terrorists acts are due to radical Islam per se and how much are due to attention seekers with a death wish – because if we get the causes wrong, we’ll be looking at the wrong solutions.

    Martin Bryant had very low intelligence and seemed to have been shunned by his peers as an ‘outsider’. No excuse for anything, but it adds to an understanding that could prevent further such occurrences.

  22. socrates @ #1802 Wednesday, May 24, 2017 at 9:28 am

    Victoria
    You are correct. I think it is obvious that ISIL recruiters have learnt to target the mentally ill and the marginalised. There have also been quite a few with criminal records. Several of the Australians who died fighting in Syria had convictions for drug crimes and had been in criminal gangs. Nobody with a stable job and a family they love wants to become a terrorist. The recruiters should be jailed for life, as they are effectively organising acts of murder. Some have kept recruiting while in jail.
    Of course, that is all just as much a perversion of Islam as it is of any other religion. And there will always be some such vulnerable people in our society, hence this will not stop. Hence my view that Saudi Arabia and Wahabism, the source of the extremism, needs to be held accountable. I am not the only person who holds that view.
    http://www.salon.com/2016/01/06/saudi_arabia_funds_and_exports_islamic_extremism_the_truth_behind_the_toxic_u_s_relationship_with_the_theocratic_nation/

    Dead right!
    Wahabbist money is flooding into Indonesia and funding extremist Mosques and Madrassas. The results are already visible and ominous.

  23. socrates @ #1812 Wednesday, May 24, 2017 at 9:41 am

    Victoria
    Exactly! Fighting the fire with one hand while fueling it with the other. Why won’t it go out?

    Besides the major arms deals we have the smaller ones that help to perpetuate conflicts in countries to levels that they otherwise would not come near.

    And of course the worlds major arms dealers are also the permanent members of the UN security council.

    Conflict of interest anyone?

  24. The Coroners report into Lindt siege is being handed down now. Usual live blogs for full coverage plus Four Corners. I expect that one is being done by Sarah Ferguson.

  25. What The Senate Intelligence Committee Just Did To Mike Flynn Should Terrify Donald Trump

    After Mike Flynn took the Fifth and refused to testify or turn over documents, the Senate Intelligence Committee subpoenaed two of Flynn’s businesses, because a corporation has no Fifth Amendment rights. This a point that should scare the living daylights out of Donald Trump.

    The message to Trump is clear. You personally can try to hide information, but your corporations can’t, and investigators are going to use every method at their disposal to get access to the information that they need. Remember this moment, because Trump’s businesses and his campaign were intertwined like observers had never seen before

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/05/23/senate-intelligence-committee-mike-flynn-terrify-donald-trump.html

  26. ‘It’s a one witness impeachment trial’: Olbermann puts Trump on notice that Comey will bring him down

    Keith Olbermann has released a new episode of his GQ show where the longtime broadcaster posits an intriguing legal theory about investigations into Russian collusion with the Donald Trump campaign.

    “It is a one witness impeachment trial now waiting to happen,” Olbermann said of expected Comey testimony. “Either Comey is lying – and lying and lying and lying or Trump’s presidency is already over and we just don’t know whether the Republicans will bury it soon in hopes of recovering by the midterms or if they will wait for the possibility that Democrats will get to do it early in 2019.”

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/05/its-a-one-witness-impeachment-trial-olbermann-puts-trump-on-notice-that-comey-will-bring-him-down/

  27. victoria @ #1819 Wednesday, May 24, 2017 at 9:57 am

    Mentally ill people can experience grandiose delusions and some believe they are Jesus or God. It is therefore easy to see in this climate of radical Islam extremism, that those who are unstable, commit atrocities in the name of Allah.

    Good to see you acknowledging some of the realities of severe mental illness.
    Fortunately, most are not dangerous.

  28. Trump must be getting lessons from Joe ‘eleventy’ Hockey on how to run a budget.

    Apparently, the budget forecasts that U.S. economic growth will rise to 3.0 percent because of the administration’s policies — largely its tax cuts and perhaps also its regulatory policies. Then the administration asserts that it will propose revenue neutral tax cuts with the revenue neutrality coming in part because the tax cuts stimulate growth! This is an elementary double count. You can’t use the growth benefits of tax cuts once to justify an optimistic baseline and then again to claim that the tax cuts do not cost revenue.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/05/23/larry-summers-trumps-budget-is-simply-ludicrous/?utm_term=.2211f0a8d618

  29. “liberals” are amusing in their tenacious ideology and group think.
    Criticism of islam is “racist”
    Someone consciously, deliberately and publicly proclaims their actions are in the name of islam/allah,
    they come from a pious family
    attend mosque regularly
    so it can only be mental illness.
    Mental illness is the necessary explanation, otherwise the liberal’s dogmas might be questioned. Haha
    liberal bullshit is so successful in ensuring tory victories.

  30. It so wrong to keep calling this Islamic or Muslim terrorism: it is Sunni terrorism.
    During the Irish troubles, it was never described as Christian terrorism, always the credit was given to the Catholics or Protestants, you could not mix it up with Anglicans or Greel Orthodox.

    I do not think that there has been any attack on the West by any of the other Muslim sects: Sufi, Shia etc.

    Please use the correct term: Sunni terrorism.
    The sucide bomber in Manchester was a Sunni and went to a Sunni mosque, most of who are funded by Saudi money

  31. swamprat @ #1838 Wednesday, May 24, 2017 at 10:39 am

    “liberals” are amusing in their tenacious ideology and group think.
    Criticism of islam is “racist”
    Someone consciously, deliberately and publicly proclaims their actions are in the name of islam/allah,
    they come from a pious family
    attend mosque regularly
    so it can only be mental illness.
    Mental illness is the necessary explanation, otherwise the liberal’s dogmas might be questioned. Haha
    liberal bullshit is so successful in ensuring tory victories.

    Maybe there’s no difference?

    Maybe religion is a mental illness?

  32. god liberals get themselves tied in knots with their bullshit.
    liberal dogma is that criticism of islam is racist
    “Racism” is the primary evil facing liberals and it is everywhere, like witchcraft in Salem,
    A pious moslem who goes regularly to mosque
    And who commits an act of violence in the name of his religion and bravely kills himself in his cause
    The only way a liberal can square the circle is to say
    He was obviously mentally ill
    1000s of mentally ill non-moslems are suddenly doing lots of dastardly deeds
    Carried to its logical conclusion, The philosphical absurdity of liberal thinking is:
    If a “moslem” does any evil, by (liberal) definition he is not a moslem
    Therefore it is impossible for “moslems” to do anything evil.

    This bullshit plays directly to the benefit of tories.

  33. Re. the published parliamentary members’ mobile numbers:
    http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2017/05/23/how-hundreds-parliamentary-mobile-numbers-were-leaked-online
    The Department of Parliamentary Services confirmed some MPs have requested new phone numbers following the privacy breach, but the Department will continue to use Telco Management.
    Where is the accountability here?
    Parliamentarians are really quick to jump on so called ‘dole bludgers’ and penalise them mercilessly for the slightest failure to fill in a form correctly; but when it comes to a company that breaches all sorts of privacy guidelines there is no penalty whatsoever.

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