BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

Lots of new data but still no movement on BludgerTrack’s voting intention trend, although there’s a little more going on with leaders’ net approval ratings.

A big week for opinion polling hasn’t translated into a big week for BludgerTrack, which records basically no movement at all on two-party preferred, although there’s some movement on the primary vote from the minor to the major parties, the Greens to Labor especially. On the seat projection, the Coalition is up one in Victoria and South Australia, but down one in Queensland. There is a little more activity on the leadership ratings, for which new numbers were provided by Newspoll and Ipsos, with both leaders improving on net approval.

I’ve now reintroduced Ipsos to the model, which had hitherto been excluded because there were only two data points since the election, and one of them – the first poll in November – was a particularly peculiar result. It still is, a little, but the pollster’s three results together now look acceptably normal after bias adjustments which shift of big chunk of the Greens’ surely inflated primary vote to Labor. Since the latest result for Ipsos was better for the Coalition than the last result in particular, it should up relatively strongly for them.

ReachTEL is not included at this stage, because I require more than one result before I can usefully apply bias adjustments, and last week’s efforts for Sky News and Seven effectively count as a single result as they were conducted at the same time. The media did report on a poll it conducted for GetUp! in January, but this is excluded on the basis of being privately conducted.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,847 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

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  2. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    In breaking news Theresa May has just announced that the UK terror alert level has been raised to “critical”. She said that further attacks may be imminent. This could be a game changer.
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2017/may/22/manchester-arena-ariana-grande-concert-explosion-england
    Young concert-goers and their parents will be second-guessing heading to big events in Australia, psychologists say, as security experts warn that Australia can’t rule out a similar attack to the Manchester stadium bombing. Stand by for weeks of Conservative grandstanding.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/a-watershed-moment-manchester-bombing-likely-to-affect-australian-security-20170523-gwb8m5.html
    Greg Jericho tells us that Australians aren’t getting paid for their productivity and that we should get set for an industrial relations war. His article is festooned with supporting data and its interpretation.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2017/may/23/australians-arent-being-paid-for-their-productivity-get-set-for-an-industrial-relations-war
    Michelle Grattan writes that Labor has formally decided to try to thwart the government’s Gonski schools legislation, while the Greens are looking over their shoulder at what their base would think if they opt to back it.
    https://theconversation.com/giving-a-gonski-will-be-torrid-test-for-greens-77593
    Maybe these peasants thing the tsunami was wrought upon them because of homosexual behaviour. What hope is there when such beliefs continue?
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/two-men-receive-83-lashes-for-gay-sex-in-indonesian-province-of-aceh-20170523-gwbeof.html
    Pauline Hanson is playing “Where’s Wally” at Senate Estimates. Please explain!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/please-explain-pauline-hanson-misses-senate-estimates-for-a-third-time-20170523-gwb9wl.html
    And The Australian says that former One Nation candidate Lynette Keehn’s failed run for ¬office at last year’s federal election has left her heavily indebted and jobless without any hope of clawing back funds from Pauline Hanson’s party. Google.
    /national-affairs/one-nation-battler-left-jobless-and-in-debt-after-running-in-election/news-story/90badc4633c92c6526d1820f575e1cb3
    There’s more to James Ashby’s money making ideas than meets the eye. Jim Pembroke takes an amusing look at One Nation’s latest “innovative” merchandising.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/chill-out-its-just-james-ashbys-innovative-one-nation-merchandising,10328
    Ross Gittins has no time for the students protesting over increased uni fees. And he is scathing of the attacks on the jobless.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/of-those-complaining-about-budget-i-have-little-sympathy-for-uni-students-20170523-gwauxn.html

  3. Frednk,
    Learn your birds; my avatar is a Galah (not perfect but the Galah tries to stay out of the personal stuff); BB is a yellow crested cockatoo.

    😳 sorry. Birds are not my strong suit.

  4. Section 2 . . .

    The Victorian Treasurer explains how the federal government has dudded Victoria on infrastructure yet again. Google.
    /news/opinion/turnbull-governments-infrastructure-spending-shortchanges-victorians/news-story/e0ef001657b1341a09a7717bb5361eb3
    What qualifications will be the ones needed for jobs in the not too distant future?
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace-relations/business-and-tech-qualifications-perfect-for-jobs-of-the-future-20170523-gwbbr4.html
    South Korea’s army has fired warning shots after an unidentified object from North Korea crossed its border on Tuesday. What in the hell are they playing at?
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/north-korea-fires-object-over-south-korean-border-report-20170523-gwbiyi.html
    Sarah Gill uses the way Dutton carries on in calling for the survival of good journalism.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/quality-journalism-is-about-more-than-just-unearthing-scandals-and-injustice-20170522-gwagb1.html
    Massola’s still on the Albo bandwagon.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/labor-mps-fire-back-at-anthony-albanese-over-public-criticism-20170523-gwb3ve.html
    All Australian company directors would be assigned special ID numbers under a new Labor policy to be announced today designed to prevent them deliberately tanking their companies to avoid paying workers, creditors and the Tax Office. “Phoenixing” is also in their sights. Hear hear!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/labor-targets-dodgy-company-directors-with-crackdown-on-phoenix-schemes-20170523-gwb3ka.html
    The former CIA chief has told a congressional inquiry that there was enough Trump team contact with Russia to justify an FBI investigation.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/may/23/ex-cia-chief-john-brennan-concerns-russian-ties-trump-team
    Yet another workplace death.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/worker-killed-on-northconnex-work-site-20170523-gwbgss.html
    Ready-made food, new store formats and online shopping will become the weapons of choice as major supermarket chains defend their turf from discounters while meeting the needs of millennials. Google.
    business/retail/convenience-the-new-weapon-in-grocery-war-20170523-gwb6ch
    This is what is happening with the “extreme vetting” process on Manus Island refugees hopefully bound for the US.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/us-asks-refugees-to-swear-oath-to-god-during-sixhour-extreme-vetting-interviews-20170523-gwbbx1.html

  5. I see Malcolm Turnbull’s protege Captain James Brown has been installed as the new President of the NSW RSL. And he has promised to get all his mates in to take over the place, er, join.

  6. Section 4 . . . with Cartoon Corner Part 1

    Australian cricketers could soon be travelling the world playing Twenty20 as ‘guns for hire’ if the current pay dispute is not resolved, Bryce McGain and Ian Chappell have warned. They should pull their big heads in I reckon.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/sport/cricket/2017/05/23/australian-cricket-strike/
    The ACCI chief says that small businesses can’t afford to pay big increases in wages. They are plumping for a 1.2% increase in minimum award rates.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/small-businesses-cannot-afford-big-increase-to-minimum-wage-20170523-gwb81x.html
    First it was Centrelink and now it is the Education Department that have not consulted with the government’s digital service agency.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/public-service/digital-transformation-agency-not-consulted-over-troubled-online-naplan-test-20170523-gwavsu.html

    Ron Tandberg with doubts on Snowy 2.0

    A cutting contribution from Alan Moir over the Manchester atrocity.

  7. Section 5 . . . Cartoon Corner Part 2

    Broelman absolutely NAILS PHON.

    And he has a contribution mourning what happened in Manchester.

    Mark Knight also has one on Manchester.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/662edc7e14cbe9491bd6c605394fb023?width=1024
    David Rowe takes us to th Middle East for Trump’s grand tour.

    Andrew Dyson and what is happening to journalism.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/andrew-dyson-20090819-epqv.html
    Cathy Wilcox justifiably gets stuck in to the funeral industry.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/cartoons-by-cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6
    Jon Kudelka’s been in good form lately Here he uses a Tom Roberts painting to get into Pauline Hanson and James Ashby.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/8e8630a087e9094367ecfc020e5be698
    David Pope and the big US-Saudi Arabia arms deal.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html

  8. Lizzie,
    I no longer buy Tassal products.

    Nor do I. I have also started buying ‘Responsibly Sourced Clean Catch Prawns’.

  15. Private companies have been invited to play a key role in a new computer system to manage $50 billion in health and aged care payments.

    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull last year made a clear election commitment all Medicare services currently delivered by government would stay that way.

    The commitment was made in the wake of a concerted attack by Labor – nicknamed “Mediscare” – about privatisation of the health system.

    A Senate committee has now heard the Digital Transformation Agency, which is based in the prime minister’s department, was working with the health department on a new payments management system.

    The DTA has given advice on how to make the system more user-friendly especially for doctors, aged care providers and patients.

    The health department is close to finalising its review of a request for information process, which attracted strong interest from the private sector.

    “It may entail leveraging a third-party provider in terms of the software,” DTA chief Gavin Slater told the committee in Canberra on Tuesday.

    “It may entail moving it to a cloud-based environment.”

    http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2017/05/23/private-firms-seek-role-medicare-system

  16. cud chewer @ #1739 Wednesday, May 24, 2017 at 1:20 am

    The other thing that hasn’t entered into this is the possibility of a “death spiral” in the cost of local parts of the grid. Just as there has been one for landline telephones. As more houses use less electricity, less money gets paid for the poles and wires. If they start charging an access fee many will decide to disconnect completely, making it even more expensive per house to maintain the local poles and wires.

    Western Power have already floated this at an industry event, $200 was the figure nominated.

  19. Sorry, Obama’s long note didn’t appear. Sometimes it’s hard to copy from Twitter.
    But I think you get the message. Trump makes it all about him.

  21. I knew it. The concert was targeted on purpose to get at women and girls and music, by the ISIS scum:
    Some in Manchester, and beyond, see the attack as one that targeted women and girls

    If, as claimed, this attack was carried out by an adherent of the Islamic State, the targeting of women could have been intentional.

    “It’s very well known that misogyny is deeply rooted in the radical Islamist worldview,” said Shashank Joshi, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a London-based think tank.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/the-targeting-of-women-and-girls-in-manchester-may-have-been-intentional/2017/05/23/e87d3f42-3fb8-11e7-b29f-f40ffced2ddb_story.html?utm_term=.83222871293c

  22. http://www.afr.com/news/politics/craig-emerson-criticises-bill-shorten-over-populist-budget-response-20170521-gw9y1w

    Former federal Labor minister Craig Emerson has backed the Turnbull government and at least half the shadow cabinet by warning Bill Shorten that voters were “fed up with short-term populism” and he should support the proposed Medicare levy increase to fund the National Disability Insurance Scheme.

    Dr Emerson, a cabinet minister when Labor designed the NDIS and introduced its own Medicare levy increase to help fund it, also argues in today’s The Australian Financial Review that Labor should stop quibbling over the proposed bank tax and the embrace of David Gonski’s needs-based school funding model, which Labor says falls short by $22 billion over a decade.

    “It should support the full increase in the Medicare levy, unconditionally back the bank levy and pass the school-funding legislation while promising to enhance it in government,” Dr Emerson says.

    “By combining these with its other announced savings and revenue policies, Labor would be in a position to return the budget to surplus much more quickly than the Coalition.

  23. Has Tony Abbott been on a retainer consulting fee with the new Trump administration.
    The Trump budget gives all the cash it can to the military & very wealthy individuals and corporations
    and takes just about everything from people and services (health & education) who need it most.
    https://thinkprogress.org/the-6-trillion-magic-eraser-buried-in-trumps-budget-99b10dfd1c23
    https://thinkprogress.org/trump-budget-welfare-cuts-d3af59f8251a
    https://thinkprogress.org/budget-gop-reaction-4f4e5e775f00

  24. “Now is a once-in-a-generation opportunity to lock in a school-funding system that can give every disadvantaged child a chance of a good education, and Labor has pledged to block it. It’s heartbreaking”.

    It’s hard to fault the logic of Emerson, a policy wonk who has the background to judge. Surely it is sensible for an opposition to seize the chance when it comes for a structural improvement, and then undertake to build on it?

    Initially, SH-Y came out with the same response.

    Apparently it’s okay for Labor to support 100% of nothing rather than 80% of something that can then be used as a basis to build upon, but not okay for the Greens to support 80% of something to build upon rather than 100% of nothing. build upon it.

  25. https://theconversation.com/giving-a-gonski-will-be-torrid-test-for-greens-77593

    “Now is a once-in-a-generation opportunity to lock in a school-funding system that can give every disadvantaged child a chance of a good education, and Labor has pledged to block it. It’s heartbreaking”.

    It’s hard to fault the logic of Emerson, a policy wonk who has the background to judge. Surely it is sensible for an opposition to seize the chance when it comes for a structural improvement, and then undertake to build on it?

    Initially, SH-Y came out with the same response.

    Apparently it’s okay for Labor to support 100% of nothing rather than 80% of something that can then be used as a basis to build upon, but not okay for the Greens to support 80% of something to build upon rather than 100% of nothing.

  26. Remember how Abbott and his merry band of intransigents refused to support key Government legislation? Well, the wheel has turned.

    Using alternatives figures provided by the NSW Teachers Federation, shadow education minister Tanya Plibersek told colleagues that the Coalition’s school plan, which would allocate $18.6 billion extra over 10 years on a needs-basis, was not only $22 billion less than Labor would spend, but an attack on public schools.

    “If the Greens support this, it just shows how moronic they are,” she said.

    The Greens were initially favourably disposed towards the school funding package but have now backtracked. Leader Richard Di Natale said on Tuesday the party had “serious concerns” with the package and would subject it to scrutiny via a Senate committee before making a decision. But he flagged at least one key change by complaining that the package did not direct enough funding to “needy schools”.

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/cynical-labor-puts-budget-in-peril-20170522-gwasb9#ixzz4hwe57G9C
    Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook

  27. Morning all. Thanks BK. In the spirit of the gig economy, perhaps we should introduce a new category of part-time Senator for Hanson. She gets half pay for turning up half the time. She is keen on saving taxpayers money, after all.

  28. peg

    So why did SHY cave, then, if hers was the principled position?

    It wouldn’t have been due to pressure from Labor or Liberal voters – she’s too experienced to fall into the trap of doing what people who don’t support her want her to do.

    It would have been due to pressure from her own supporters – that is, from within the Greens.

    Don’t blame Labor (or anyone else) if SHY didn’t consult with her own members, didn’t understand the mood in her own party and was unable to mount a credible argument to address their concerns.

    SHY came up with an ill considered approach to the issue which was promptly canned by her own members – and she was unable to convince them that she was right.

  30. Ah, Macquarie Harbour: the Vision Splendid of the Coalition.

    The seafloor is a layer of heavy metal and other nasty compounds from the Queenstown mines and smelters.
    On top of the heavy metals is an ever growing layer of decomposing salmon food and salmon shit. The sea water is rapidly turning into a turgid dexoygenated death zone with
    the whole guarded by the ghosts of decimated Indigenous people, decimated wildlife and viciously brutalized convicts.
    Tasmania: clean and green and you’re standing in it.

  31. Catmomma
    You can bet Manchester was targetted at women and girls by ISIL/Daesh.

    I am already sick of the handwringing by May though. Nothing she has done or is doing will stop attacks. Meanwhile the flow of Saudi cash that keeps ISIL going will continue without question. Where does a 22 year old student born in Manchester get the money and knowhow to get bomb components and build it? This guy had to have had others helping and directing him.

    At least when the IRA were bombing western targets in the 1980s (with Libyan supplied arms) authorities went after their money supply and nobody pretended Libya was an ally. Today in a world where monitoring money flows is easier we do nothing, while pretending the sourc of both the cash and the ideology is a friend. The war on terror is a sick joke, perpetrated mainly on the victims.

  32. Philanthropy from wealthy individuals is many things: generous, inspiring, and selfless. But it is also inherently undemocratic. It vests massive power in the hands of the giver to determine how much money is available and what causes merit support.

    This is not to say philanthropy has no role to play in a democracy. It does. But democracies cannot allow wealthy individuals and successful organisations to use philanthropy as a substitute for paying tax. That’s no longer democracy: it is oligarchy.

    Forrest and Fortescue Metals Group have demonstrated an aversion to paying tax. FMG officials told a Senate hearing in 2011 that the company had never paid company tax (but had paid $450m to $500m per year in mining royalties).
    …
    It was jarring to hear the prime minister list the projects that the Forrests had decided to support, particularly when several of those projects sit squarely within current parliamentary debates about the federal budget and government funding.

    The prime minister went out of his way to make the point that the Forrest donation was not being given because it was required by law, but rather that it was given in love.

    That’s a galling statement in the context of the live debates about corporate tax minimisation, company tax cuts and education funding.
    …
    The media commentary hailed the Forrest announcement as a potential game-changer in Australia, perhaps prompting a culture more like the USA where major philanthropic gifts are more commonplace.

    You know what else is more commonplace in the USA? Tax minimisation and avoidance. A president who won’t release his tax returns. Citizens without any health insurance. Unemployed people with no access to income support. Homelessness. A public-school system in which the quality of education is determined by the wealth of the local community. A university system that sinks graduates into debt for decades.

    Thanks, but I prefer to live in a nation with a progressive, robust and fair tax system that supports universal access to services and opportunities.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/24/twiggy-forrests-philanthropy-is-great-but-he-could-have-just-paid-more-tax?CMP=share_btn_tw

  34. Cud Chewer
    Re Snowy 2.0.
    I am not claiming that batteries will totally remove the high/low electricity pricing on which grid based pumped hydro is based, simply flattening it off. Also Snowy 2.0 does not add any further storage capacity, it simply increases maximum power output by 50% with extra generators.
    Re people disconnecting from the grid.
    The best way to keep them on the grid is to enable them to trade power. This will also have the effect of reducing prices for renters and others without solar and storage.

  35. What was the line that Di Natale used to Greensplain the Greens initial support for the theft of $22 billion from needy schools?
    ‘We have to face reality.’
    The Greens, Peg included, just got hammered between the eyes by reality.
    Maybe it will catch on with the Greens?

  37. Jay Weatherall might also care to remind Malcolm that not only did he understimate costs in his thought bubble Snow Job II by half, but he also guessed the construction period as being two years shorter than reality. Tanya Plibersek will be PM by the time Snow Job II is finished. Snow Job II provides zero solution to current high energy prices.

  38. Socrates,
    I made the point yesterday that it was Theresa May’s government, and no one else because it happened on her watch, that was unable to prevent the terrorist attack yesterday.

    So why should people in the UK vote them back in!?!

    All she is doing today is taking cynical advantage of it.

  39. I hope the Greens decide to support the Coalition’s Fraudski..

    ..my sources inform me they’ve brought Meg Lees in as a consultant.. 😉

  40. So are we to take it as Green gospel now that Pegasus and her fellow Green grubs support the cutbacks in funding for Disabled and Special Needs students in the Public School system that has been identified by the Teachers Federation in Conski 1.0?

  44. peg

    So you can’t defend SHY’s backdown?

    I’m sure if I could be bothered I’d find numerous posts where you diss people such as Emerson.

  47. There is a common thread amongst those who are carrying out some of these terror attacks. This includes those not deemed terror such as the sicko who went on a rampage in Melbourne CBD and the recent Time Square incident. As well as the Orlando massacre and Monis at the Lindt cafe. These people are mentally unstable, and there is usually a history of bad conduct (especially towards women) leading up to their ultimate atrocities. Whether egged on by substance abuse or not. For goodness sake, Monis orchestrated the brutal murder of his ex wife, whilst he was playing with their children. (what was he doing on bail?) They profess to do this in the name of their Strong beliefs and ideology. When all it really is, just an excuse their sick mind latches onto to justify their actions.

  48. Adrian
    To the war on terror, we could also add the failed real war in Afghanistan, where we delude ourselves it is possible to win a guerilla war in one country, while a steady flow of arms keeps coming over the border from neighbouring “ally” Pakistan. It is the Vietnam war all over again, with Afghanistan in the role of Vietnam and Pakistan in the role of Laos.

    In both cases, time, money and lives have been wasted. Only photo ops for visiting khaki clad PMs and defense ministers are gained. Expensive photos – one or more dead Aussie soldiers per front page. Australian troops have now been in the mid east longer (2001-2017) than they were in Vietnam (1962-1972). If we want to really fight terrorism, we should get out, and ban any Saudi bank that is used to funnel cash to ISIL.

  50. Pegasus

    You do realise that by trying to somehow make this about team labour, you have kicked an own goal for your beloved Greens.
    You really can’t see the wood for the “Green” trees. Lol!

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