A big week for opinion polling hasn’t translated into a big week for BludgerTrack, which records basically no movement at all on two-party preferred, although there’s some movement on the primary vote from the minor to the major parties, the Greens to Labor especially. On the seat projection, the Coalition is up one in Victoria and South Australia, but down one in Queensland. There is a little more activity on the leadership ratings, for which new numbers were provided by Newspoll and Ipsos, with both leaders improving on net approval.
I’ve now reintroduced Ipsos to the model, which had hitherto been excluded because there were only two data points since the election, and one of them – the first poll in November – was a particularly peculiar result. It still is, a little, but the pollster’s three results together now look acceptably normal after bias adjustments which shift of big chunk of the Greens’ surely inflated primary vote to Labor. Since the latest result for Ipsos was better for the Coalition than the last result in particular, it should up relatively strongly for them.
ReachTEL is not included at this stage, because I require more than one result before I can usefully apply bias adjustments, and last week’s efforts for Sky News and Seven effectively count as a single result as they were conducted at the same time. The media did report on a poll it conducted for GetUp! in January, but this is excluded on the basis of being privately conducted.
The residents of the State electorate of Mansfield in QLD are very lucky indeed to have an experienced One Nation candidate standing at the next election. He is Neil Symes, the ex LNP member for Lytton, and an example of his ability may be seen here…
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/dont-make-me-get-my-mates-on-to-you-warns-lytton-mp-neil-symes/news-story/f4698b345a2ec0a92d0a16fce8281154
Anyway, we have this very day received a bright new shiny brochure from him, and amongt his commitments is a pledge to – reduce the number of politicians and restore the QLD upper house.
ctar1 @ #1545 Tuesday, May 23, 2017 at 5:14 pm
Yeah, sometimes I do and sometimes I don’t. Increasingly the latter.
And pr the benefit of our resident pugilist, my despair is as much directed at myself for failing to notice the emoticon as it is to the person inserting it and PB for not handling it properly.
What I was going to say is that I just don’t get this anti-Iran stuff.
Iran just had an election and the reformer won. He wants to open up to the rest of the world and make the place more tolerant.
Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, is a medieval, autocratic, theocratic monarchy which harbours the source of Islamist terrorism. Nothing to commend it at all!
Oh, but they sit on lots of oil and buy lots of weapons.
Larissa Waters in Estimates has uncovered some embarrassing stuff over the viability and cost of Snowy 2.0.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-05-23/snowy-hydro-2.0-decision-made-by-turnbull-in-less-than-two-weeks/8551134
C@
I came from a very religious background. Betting was especially frowned upon and money earnt from it seen as immoral.
So I was highly amused when I met a family of atheists whose father ‘found’ religion late in life.
His only ‘sin’ was betting on the races. He would salve his conscience by placing bets only on horses with religious names – such as Saintly.
When he won, he would have attacks of conscience, which led him to try and give his winnings away to his family…who saw them as the wages of Christianity and wanted nothing to do with them.
bk @ #1532 Tuesday, May 23, 2017 at 4:53 pm
Is this what a burst fuel tank will look like.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BPWcV9KMIEU
or this
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7xPBHn7Cblk
Ctar1
“You’d think the concept would be that if you behaved well, you’d be in with a chance, rather than spending your time ‘dog bothering’!”
I would have thought so. But when it comes to theology, I’m not as well-versed as my learned father-in-law. When my wife queried “But Dad, why can’t we all just be nice to each other – isn’t that what Jesus wanted?”, my father-in-law spluttered in sanctimonious outrage. Every conversation we have with him drives us further toward atheism.
Jackol / Adrian – {evil} !
Says something about your reading ability. And your feelings of grandeur.
I have posted frequently, and intermittently, at times. And I rarely, if ever, direct my posts at/or to you. But, over time, I just get sick of your constant snipes at people. Why do you do it? They add up.
One minute you’re all manners, congratulating every tom, dick or harriet, about their post, next it’s like you can’t help yourself; you have to snipe or your life’s not worth living. Given your propensity to label people, and the psychology, are you sure you haven’t a drinking problem?
Now THAT’s funny… and so true.
Might I add: “Knowing when to go north on Pennant Hills Rd., when to go south, and when not to go at all”?
The only thing is… once you’ve worked that out, you just want to leave.
Fargo – How lucky are they!
kezza2 @ #1558 Tuesday, May 23, 2017 at 5:27 pm
That was not a snipe at anyone and I refute your accusation and challenge you to give examples.
OTOH, you might like to have a look at recent posts by Jackol and Adrian.
I write posts agreeing and disagreeing with others or making comments on issues of interest such as my post on Iran and an earlier post on trams as examples.
If you can’t handle that then too bad.
The really great John Barron has both Chica and Greg Sheridan on the Drum tonight …
Bye. Hope it’s for good this time.
Don’t worry, Kezza is a catholic attacker, a broad church. She has a go at everyone. Even me.
If only you could bottle her energy, after distilling out the rancour, we wouldn’t need Snowy 2.0, or 2.anything.
Go Kezza!
Queensland Labor made amateurish political mistakes in their handling of the Adani issue. There was no need for them to entertain the fantasy that the project could ever be a good idea. They tried to be too clever by half in how they managed public perceptions of their attitude towards coal mining. Now many voters will believe that the project won’t go ahead because of a government decision when in reality it was always, from the get go, a dumb proposal environmentally and commercially.
The amateurism of Queensland Labor stems from their failure to be authentic and grown-up in their communication with voters.
Have another drink, Kezza. You’ll feel better.
BK
I would be surprised if the Finkel report doesn’t put the Kybosh on this as well.
Apart from the costs – extra transmission lines plus it looks like the tunneling costs were underestimated by Turnbull – the business model won’t stack up either.
The days of big centralised infrastructure are numbered.
kakuru @ #1543 Tuesday, May 23, 2017 at 5:11 pm
My mother’s (non-Catholic but devout Christian) greatest anxiety is her belief that her 3 sons will not be going to heaven.
Not as a result our open atheist convictions but because our lack of attendance on Sundays.
Nicholas
Hear, hear.
trog sorrenson @ #1567 Tuesday, May 23, 2017 at 5:36 pm
I agree with a lot of the energy stuff you post here, but I am not convinced about no longer needing transmission lines, even if generation is decentralised.
It is not always sunny and windy in any location to recharge the batteries. It makes sense to be able to draw energy from other locations with wind and/or sunlight generating excess energy.
C@tmomma
Tuesday, May 23, 2017 at 4:03 pm
Actually, one of my sons came out to me last week. He said he had been reticent to admit it to me, knowing how against it I was, but he had decided to tell me.
” Mum”, he said, “I think I’m a Christian.”
************************************************************************
Mildly amusing story;
My current country of residence requires those who wish to imbibe of alcoholic beverages to have a license to procure same (from the single outlet).
On arrival and applying for said license, I was required to state my religion.
I duly stated my religion as ‘me’. The clerk looked over my application and said ” ‘me’, what religion is ‘me’?”, I replied “myself, I believe in myself”. He very dryly replied “if you want a license in this country you will be a christian”, I became a christian for the period of time it took for my license to be printed.
guytaur @ #1443 Tuesday, May 23, 2017 at 2:14 pm
I find that term very distasteful.
Bemused
The Snowy 2.0 project will need additional transmission lines because it has the ability to export more power, although total energy storage will be the same.
The problem with the business model is that pumped hydro is based on arbitrage i.e. buy low, sell high. Buy low cost at night and sell during peak requirements.
The problem with this is two fold:
1) price differentials will disappear as more battery capacity is connected to the grid, smoothing supply an demand
2) Any power e.g. from Snowy 2.0 that has to be transmitted will be at a price disadvantage to power generated and stored locally off grid.
Even big industrial projects like mines and zinc refineries etc are moving to generate more and more of their own power.
There will still be a role for the grid long term, but it will gradually diminish as local generation and storage gets cheaper.
rex douglas @ #1572 Tuesday, May 23, 2017 at 5:45 pm
Less distasteful than most Rex Douglas posts.
trog sorrenson @ #1569 Tuesday, May 23, 2017 at 5:38 pm
The ALP and their benefactor unions just can’t seem to fully commit to clean energy jobs.
“The really great John Barron has both Chica and Greg Sheridan on the Drum tonight …”
That the ABC’s idea of balance. A right wing female balanced by a right wing male, interviewed by a moron.
The Drum’s worth watching tonight.
Boerwar
….
Jesus fucking Chist Frednk!
Federal government subsidies will NOT go because any major party that supports a policy of destroying an education system supported by the parents of 20% of Australia’s school children will never ever form government.
So you haven’t worked out why the RC education system has gone ballistic and the state system has not had much to say. The RC system is fighting for survival. The policy is no special treatment for any independent school. There are some in the RC system that can do sums. The chips will land where the chips land; there is no policy to close them down.
I guess Essential has been reported on PB http://www.essentialvision.com.au/category/essentialreport Strong support for Labor v LNP in the main contested Budget issues.
trog sorrenson @ #1573 Tuesday, May 23, 2017 at 5:50 pm
Trog, I can see a diminished role and opportunity for it, but not no role at all.
Lord Haw Haw
I’ve always liked the story about Bertrand Russell, the English philosopher.
He was jailed for a time, and the clerk who was booking him into prison asked him what his religion was.
“I’m an agnostic,” Russell said.
“Oh, how do you spell that?”
After Russell spelt it out for him, the clerk smiled and said, “Funny thing, all these religions — but I guess they all worship the same god.”
adrian @ #1576 Tuesday, May 23, 2017 at 5:51 pm
The ABC should be sold off.
And I find the Tragedy Porn itself incredibly distasteful.
The media should do its job – report what is known in a sober, dispassionate way. Leave the emotional response to the viewers as they see fit. Don’t hype, don’t exaggerate, don’t leave completely out of context, don’t fixate, don’t obsess …
A distasteful practice deserves a distasteful label.
Lord Haw Haw,
Yeah I had to be officially ‘Christian’ for my liquor license during the many years I spent in the Gulf. They can’t comprehend not having a religion. They are a bit like Americans, I suppose.
lord haw haw of arabia @ #1571 Tuesday, May 23, 2017 at 5:44 pm
I encountered that a number of times travelling through the Middle East, thou not in official sense like you.
When religion came up in conversations, I caused much confusion and bafflement when I said I was an atheist.
They have no problems with believing in other religions but to believe in no religion or doG was an entirely new concept for many.
Further to the Great PB Coffee War…
Sydney and Melbourne can just step to the back.
Adelaide’s Italian and Greek migrants brought us great coffee and the city embraced the trend. It was not so much the trendy wankery of Melbourne and Sydney, as a take-up of another culinary goodie from multiculturism. There has not been instant coffee in my house, except for Meoldema’s stash of Mocconna, for years.
You can get a nice Turkish brew in Adelaide too if you look for it.
We don’t usually boast about our great coffee because we regard excellent coffee in any tiny back suburb shopping centre of pub or market as predictably normal.
Coffee should be heavily taxed along similar lines to tobacco and alcohol.
Puff, the Magic Dragon.
…
You can get a nice Turkish brew in Adelaide too if you look for it.
Nice Turkish brew? Now I know your kidding; if it’s nice it isn’t Turkish.
Deconstructed coffee in an avocado skin ?
What further proof do you need Rex ?
Dan Andrews must resign.
barney in go dau @ #1585 Tuesday, May 23, 2017 at 5:56 pm
I recently signed a petition, I think organised by Amnesty, calling for Saudi Arabia not to execute a young man convicted of atheism.
So it is actually a crime in at least one country in that region.
Terrible.
I wish Dan was both Premier of Vic and PM of Aust.
Nice and bitter, then.
Bemused
Trog, I can see a diminished role and opportunity for it, but not no role at all.
Agreed. Without the grid all the solar and wind farms will end up stranded. Eventually the grid is going to come up against economic reality.
With 50% of the retail price of power in transmission, it is already cheaper than the cost of transmission to generate power locally.
When you can generate and store power locally the grid is going to need a new business model if it is to be funded. One way is to break the big power company monopolies and support trading between individuals. The grid then becomes a necessary part of ongoing development, not an expensive hindrance.
‘Fred
So you haven’t worked out why the RC education system has gone ballistic and the state system has not had much to say. The RC system is fighting for survival. The policy is no special treatment for any independent school. There are some in the RC system that can do sums. The chips will land where the chips land; there is no policy to close them down.’
1. I don’t know why the state education systems have been (relatively) quiet. They all stand to lose a lot of money. Perhaps they are looking to see what happens to the RCs? Because if the RCs crack the Government, all the Agreements are back on the table. But perhaps you know better.
2. You state that the RC ‘system’is fighting for survival. This demonstrates a certain level of ignorance. There are multiple RC systems. Please give a skerrick of evidence that the RC systems are fighting for survival.
3. The Gonski 1 policy is needs-based funding. RC schools did extremely well out out of needs-based funding because the vast majority of RC schools are primary schools in ordinary to poor catchments.
4. Why the RC systems are up in arms is that they had an Agreement with the Federal Government. This Agreement existed going into the last election. Unilaterally, and without consultation, the Federal Government has broken that Agreement. That Agreement was based on the full Gonski 1 funding. The Commonwealth has cut $22 billion from the full Gonski funding. In other words, you were going to get ‘x’ but now you are going to get a lot less, ‘y’.
Turnbull needs more people like you, actually and there certainly appears to be many more like you. You have been totally suckered by the state v private schools suckerbait and just in case that was enough you have persuaded yourself that the average catholic primary school is hideously rich. I suggest you vote Liberal because Liberal governments seem to deliver outcomes consistent with your core values. Or Greens. Same, same.
Fortunately for all the kids in shit poor catchments who go to shit poor state schools, the RCs are running the Mother of all grassroots campaigns.
And if Turnbull & Co think that survival over the next couple of weeks is going to be the only triumph they need, they should know one thing for 100% certain.
100,000 teachers teaching 770,000 children and over a million parents are still going to be around during the next election campaign.
bemused @ #1590 Tuesday, May 23, 2017 at 6:07 pm
I would imagine the crime would not be that of being an atheist but one of apostasy in renouncing Islam.
Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Tuesday, May 23, 2017 at 6:08 pm
Nice and bitter, then.
Do they serve it with the ground coffee beans in the cup?
Trump fails to explain anything is the normal…
BB
Go Kezza!
Oh, to be acknowledged, My cup spilleth over.
frednk @ #1596 Tuesday, May 23, 2017 at 6:14 pm
I made that mistake with my first coffee in Egypt.
I went to drink what I thought was the final mouthful …
and it was. 🙂
Coffee is only as good as the barista making it. some are good, some are not … every city has both