Newspoll and Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor

Two more pollsters add to an impression of little immediate change on voting intention in the wake of last week’s budget.

Two more sets of post-voting intention budget numbers, though nothing yet on their regular questions on response to the budget:

• Newspoll moves slightly in favour of Labor, who now lead 53-47 after dropping back to 52-48 in the previous poll three weeks ago. Both parties are on 36% of the primary vote, with the Coalition steady and Labor up a point, with the Greens up one to 10% and One Nation down one to 9%. The report states that Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval has improved from minus 25% to minus 20%, while Bill Shorten’s is down from minus 22% to minus 20%, although approval and disapproval ratings are not provided. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 42-33 to 44-31. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1716.

• The post-budget Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers, conducted Wednesday to Thursday from a sample of 1401, has Labor leading 53-47, down from 55-45 in the previous poll in late March. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up four to 37%, Labor down one to 35%, and the Greens down three from a hard-to-credit result last time to record 13%. Both leaders have improved substantially on person ratings, with Malcolm Turnbull up five on approval to 45% and down four to 44% – the first net positive result we’ve seen for either leader in a long time – and Bill Shorten up seven to 42% and down six to 47%. The preferred prime minister shifts from 45-33 to 47-35. Newspoll hopefully to follow.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,160 comments on “Newspoll and Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 4 of 24
1 … 3 4 5 … 24

  1. PhoenixRed

    What is particularly striking regarding Melissa MCarthy parodying Spicer, is how believable it actually is! That is what is so scary

  2. L
    With cigatura poisoning you feed some of the fish to your neighbour’s cat.
    Not sure if this works with anaksias worms.

  3. Miranda Devine says going to a government school radicalises students. The problem is political correctness and feminism.
    I think FMD is the correct reaction to Miranda.

    Miranda Devine‏Verified account
    @mirandadevine
    Column’s up: how our feminised, politically correct schools contribute to the Islamist radicalisation of children

  4. [ Miranda Devine says going to a government school radicalises students. ]

    I only read Devine when Nuttertruckers and the RWNJ loonies there aren’t being funny enough.
    And then i make sure to wash well afterwards.

  5. Imacca
    I never read her as I never read the Telegraph, but her tweet was so ridiculous I couldn’t resist posting it. 🙂

  6. mrmoney @ #114 Monday, May 15, 2017 at 1:49 am

    In opposition the Coalition fought on principles; in government it has played politics.

    I assume this comment follows on from your previous and is from Credlin, if so it highlights her bullsh!t.

    Didn’t she admit that their position on the Carbon Tax was all about politics and nothing to do with principles!

  7. Column’s up: how our feminised, politically correct schools contribute to the Islamist radicalisation of children

    Jesus! Surely that’s a parody account?

  8. Lizzie

    Between her and Planet Janet you will discover there is very little in the world that “feminism” is not ‘blamed’ for .

  9. Christensen says he is breaking ties with the neo-nazi group that is sposoring visit by US extremist. He seems to be learning the hard way about associating with ultra RW extremists.

    Coalition MP George Christensen is trying to shut down a visit from American neo-Nazi Mike Enoch, and is renouncing his association with the group planning Mr Enoch’s appearance in Sydney.

    “Like radical Islamic sheikhs that come here to spread messages of hate, these people shouldn’t be allowed into the country,” the backbencher told AM.

    Mr Enoch’s US-based website and podcast is strewn with veiled references to Adolf Hitler, describes Jews and Muslims as a “f***ing cancer” and calls for white people to control all aspects of US society.

    The Australian Fascist Facebook page confirmed he was billed as the headline for DingoCon, a political convention to be held in Sydney in July.

    The convention is organised by The Dingoes, an ultra-nationalist Australian group that operates anonymously on the internet.

    In February, Mr Christensen gave an interview for The Dingoes podcast, which he told AM he now regrets.

    “It’s since been pointed out to me they’re extremely anti-Semitic, regularly make racial-based slurs and they subscribe to white nationalism,” he said.

    “If I had known that there is no way I would have done that interview.”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-05-15/george-christensen-tries-to-stop-visit-from-neo-nazi-mike-enoch/8525672

  10. “Scott Morrison to attend the ACOSS breakfast today.”
    He’ll have to talk fast, so he can’t hear anything they say to him.

  12. I know many on here have been noting this for some time, but I continue to be gobsmacked about how little commentators understand about polling, and how much they read in to rather small movements in polling. Do these people know anything about margin of error?

    The story with these two polls is first, Newspoll basically hasn’t moved at all (one point moves on pretty much all indicators is statistically utterly meaningless and insofar as it indicates anything means a status quo result), while, second, Ipsos has moved slightly on a poll taken over six weeks ago. The reasonable increase in the Coalition PV might be due to the Budget, or it could be due to any number of factors in the public debate over the last two months, or it might just be statistical noise. My bet is on the last one.

    The real story of the polling after last week’s Budget is that most people aren’t really that swayed by the things that get commentators excited. The reality is most likely that people probably made up their minds about this government and Turnbull some time ago (though perhaps not yet completely sold on Shorten and Labor), and it will likely take some sort of “force majeur” to change this.

    But then, that would make 90% of our political commentators largely redundant to debate, and we couldn’t have that, could we?

  13. “This week reminded us why Donald Trump should not be the president of the United States. But if you wish to remove him, think on 2020. The rest, for now, is noise.”
    Agreed – but early 2019 also a slight possibility if the Repugnants lose control of the houses in late 2018. This Mensch stuff just a self-promoting sideshow until then.

  16. Now the country is faced with a president whose conduct strongly suggests that he poses a danger to our system of government.

    Ample reasons existed to worry about this president, and to ponder the extraordinary remedy of impeachment, even before he fired FBI Director James B. Comey and shockingly admitted on national television that the action was provoked by the FBI’s intensifying investigation into his campaign’s ties with Russia.

    Even without getting to the bottom of what Trump dismissed as “this Russia thing,” impeachable offenses could theoretically have been charged from the outset of this presidency. One important example is Trump’s brazen defiance of the foreign emoluments clause, which is designed to prevent foreign powers from pressuring U.S. officials to stray from undivided loyalty to the United States. Political reality made impeachment and removal on that and other grounds seem premature.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trump-must-be-impeached-heres-why/2017/05/13/82ce2ea4-374d-11e7-b4ee-434b6d506b37_story.html?tid=sm_fb&utm_term=.140f5b54f726

  18. Oo ee, Fairfax has lost it.

    Why on earth they think trying to compete in the GG’s cat poop filled sand pit is a good idea eludes me, but there it is.

    Looks like the political commentators are playing a game of musical chairs for the last seat before the joint closes its doors.

  20. lizzie @ #145 Monday, May 15, 2017 at 8:35 am

    The criminal justice system damages women, children, men, entire communities. Governments need to get rid of laws that are criminalising so many of our women. When women go to jail, kids are often left behind and go into the child protection system. We have no trust in that system.
    “Tough on crime” does not work. We need more prevention and diversion. Governments should be looking for ways to close prisons. Governments, courts and police need to work with and learn from Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people. We know the solutions – investment in housing, education and health – that’s what makes a difference and helps communities stay strong and healthy.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/15/i-was-on-heroin-and-homeless-at-13-and-the-system-is-still-failing-indigenous-women

    And from BK.

    But Mary Ellen Harrod writes that once the “crackdown” takes effect and we withhold benefits from people who use drugs, what happens next? The consequences to people who use drugs on social welfare may well be catastrophic.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/drug-testing-could-have-catastrophic-consequences-for-welfare-recipients-20170510-gw1bl7.html

    These two stories highlight one obvious consequence of people being denied welfare, some will resort to crime in an attempt to survive.

    How is this of benefit to our society?

  21. ‘While there is no thumping endorsement of the budget as fair, more people see it as fair than don’t, even if they think they will not necessarily be better off themselves.’

    Do journalists ever consider that voters’ perception is driven by what the media reports?

    If the average voter reads that the Budget is fair, they’re going to accept it is. They don’t have the tools or the time to do the analysis themselves.

    It’s the latter part of the sentence that’s crucial – ‘even if they think they will not necessarily be better off themselves’ – because how they feel about their own situation will be one of the main drivers behind which party they back at the next election.

    In other words, if you approach the ballot box thinking the government’s done a pretty good job of looking after you, and life is as good as you can expect it to be, you’re more likely to vote for them; if you approach it feeling that nothing in your life has changed for the better, you’re not.

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/fairfax-ipsos-poll-shows-a-decisive-turnaround-for-turnbull-and-strong-approval-for-the-budget-20170514-gw4m0y#ixzz4h67uoFE9
    Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook

  22. “Rowan‏ @FightingTories 14m14 minutes ago
    What a train wreck interview by Frydenberg on ABC radio with Faine”
    Don’t listen to the ABC – what’s he referring to?

  23. Cotmomma – I think the biggest question is what Dutton makes of the latest polling. He faces the real possibility of losing his seat at the next election. He’ll be thinking self-preservation. But what is the best course for him? Sticking with Malcolm? Probably. But he might well panic!

  24. Thanks BK.

    That Credlin article is worth highlighting as a way into their thought prism. Devine too, though I’m not ready for that quite yet. I tend to lolly golly bliss bomb my way through the days by avoiding such contamination, lest my head explode. Seriously, what friggen planet are these people on. I really struggle to believe they are unable to transcend their cold inhuman lunatic ideology.

    It was a brave Liberal Party that stood against Kevin Rudd’s climate change agenda when the world was headed for Copenhagen Kumbaya; ditto the waste laid bare with billions on free roof batts and school halls; borrowed cash for outcomes-free education; and Julia Gillard’s carbon tax. If the Liberals had invested all wisdom in the polls, it would never have fought these fights, but Labor’s policies and spending offended the very core of what a centre-right party stands for, so fight it did. A relentless campaigning effort and sticking fast to the base are what won these fights, not capitulation to populism or fear of (another) partyroom coup (my emphasis)

    Their core values are offended by any policies that consider the welfare and worth of the individual (budgetary stimulus in the face of global recessionary pressures, which their inhumane policies drove needless to say, creating jobs with public benefit – house insulations, school infrastructure, to use examples which she scorns) and the welfare and worth of the species (carbon pollution reduction to save a cooking planet headed the way of Mars).

    She speaks of ‘wisdom’, FFS.

    ***X^&(%^C(%CTOo%#$#*#(%^LJ*** <——– sound of head exploding.

    /opinion/pollsdriven-policy-is-the-mark-of-a-spineless-party/news-story/49e9f3a2cee557367d0fa36f07127760

    By the way, Mrs PvO and Westpac are a thing, last time I checked.

  25. ‘..how our feminised, politically correct schools contribute to the Islamist radicalisation of children’

    That’s right – as a feminist, I am naturally drawn to misogynist religions…

  26. lizzie @ #153 Monday, May 15, 2017 at 8:41 am

    Miranda Devine says going to a government school radicalises students. The problem is political correctness and feminism.
    I think FMD is the correct reaction to Miranda.

    Miranda Devine‏Verified account
    @mirandadevine
    Column’s up: how our feminised, politically correct schools contribute to the Islamist radicalisation of children

    I agree with her.

    At public schools they learn that you should be decent to everyone and treat them equally and with respect, however when they leave they discover that the reality is very different and they are excluded and vilified.

    Which part of this scenario is wrong and needs to change?

  27. Gee, had I not picked it up here, two polls out and not a whisper that I heard this early am on any of the local radio news outlets in Sandgropia.
    It would seem that unless we are on the cusp of some government collapse or nearly an election date, polls are kind of non-news – other than places like this.
    How different it all was from the msm during the Gillard years……polls only had to move a fag-paper difference in favour of the LNP and the headlines were screaming death for Labor.

  28. Tingle et al are still blinded by the brilliance that Turnbull even attempted a double back flip with pike trying to copy some of the competition’s routine. That they fell off the beam hasn’t registered yet.

  29. Trog
    These two reports together !

    A report last week by the NSW Auditor-General found that state’s mine rehabilitation guarantees held by the government to be inadequate and requirements for restoring land after a mine’s closure to be vague. The state’s rules, though, were superior to those in Queensland and Victoria, it said.

    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/monumental-experiment-concerns-raised-over-adanis-mine-rehab-plans-20170513-gw46v9.html

    It is a proposal by Glencore’s McArthur River lead and zinc mine to extend its mining operations for another 20 years and then spend another 100 to 300 years cleaning it up.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/may/15/theyll-get-rich-and-go-glencores-mcarthur-river-mine-could-take-300-years-to-clean-up

    What fantasyland do these companies inhabit?

  30. hugoaugogo @ #162 Monday, May 15, 2017 at 9:03 am

    I know many on here have been noting this for some time, but I continue to be gobsmacked about how little commentators understand about polling, and how much they read in to rather small movements in polling. Do these people know anything about margin of error?
    …
    But then, that would make 90% of our political commentators largely redundant to debate, and we couldn’t have that, could we?

    Yes hugo but as is also mentioned the Papers spend money on commissioning these polls and want a return for it.

    As well each publication is biased to their poll and thus you get the ridiculous situation of Faifax and Newscorp taking the opposite view on the same numbers.

  31. Yep, way better to send young impressionable minds off to Big Benevolent Beatific Man In the Sky Schools, huh, Miranda?

  32. gorkay king @ #104 Monday, May 15, 2017 at 12:35 am

    Oh those Fairfax headlines… Reminds me of Turnbull’s honeymoon period as PM when Fairfax was in love with him, a time when Turnbull was farting rainbows.

    ………………..

    A reminder of what Fairfax told staff recently –

    Sydney Morning Herald and Age to employ fewer journalists and narrow coverage

    Fairfax also signalled a shift to the right of politics with unusually pointed statements about being pro business and pro market-based solutions.

    “Our pro-investor, pro-consumer view of business is central to our influence in the economic and business community,” the company said in a five-page document titled Metro Journalism – The way ahead.

    “We believe in the merits of market-based solutions to economic challenges and an Australia that rewards aspiration and hard work. We want to be at the political centre of the rigorous debate over how best to achieve these important objectives.

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/apr/05/sydney-morning-herald-and-age-to-employ-fewer-journalists-and-narrow-coverage

    Their new masterhead –

  33. Fess

    Re your link on previous page re Trump and 25th amendment etc.
    From a my observations of the Trump Imbroglio over past year tells me that this shit show is ramping up. Trump and his cronies are going to be scampering in all directions. The outcome will either be resignation by Trump or impeachment etc.
    Trump and his cronies are a national security threat to the nation they swore an oath to. They are done for

  35. Victoria,
    I wouldn’t be so confident about Trump and his cronies going anywhere. You don’t get to the position they are in without having been down the sewer most of your life learning lessons in survival from the New York rats.

  36. The government is cooked. No one is listening anymore and it’s just a question of the timing of the election as to whether they cop a mauling or a paddling.

  37. 1. I know full well that Newspoll is almost certainly random noise (as are pretty much all the moves in the polls for months and months).

    2. But as we’ve noted since forever the media dimwits need a story so what’s easier than playing up insignificant noise into a story of a fundamental realignment that only the savvy insiders could discern.

    3. As I noted last Tuesday Trumble had pretty much bet the house on random Newspoll noise going his way. This was especially dumbass seeing that the previous random Newspoll move had been his way and so a move back the other way was more likely than not.

    4. Because the move was to Labor the media dimwits were always going to write up the budget as a failure. (Fairfax lunacy notwithstanding – but fear not they’ll be back running with the herd soon enough).

    5. Because the capitulation to Labor’s themes is a direct insult to the right that already hates him the Abbottistas and the GG loons will take Newspoll and use it to beat Trumble over the head remorselessly.

    6. These people speak directly to the Liberal base.

    7. The negative media coverage guaranteed by the random Newspoll noise will now be self sustaining gleefully fed by the right telling the Liberal base they’ve been betrayed for no electoral gain.

    8. On the other side Trumble has endorsed Labor’s program so many people will simply decide to go for the genuine article over the fake.

    9. So the chances of the budget producing a recovery over the medium term are next to zip.

    10. Trumble now has no defence and no more Rabbits to pull out of the top hat. The right will come for him harder now. More than enough of them are more than happy to go down fighting for their special brand of crazy than go down as Labor-lite.

    tl;dr Brian Trumble has fucked himself yet again. This one is probably the one that will end him.

  38. “We believe in the merits of market-based solutions to economic challenges and an Australia that rewards aspiration and hard work. We want to be at the political centre of the rigorous debate over how best to achieve these important objectives.

    Well, my market-based solution is going to be to cancel my subscription. 🙂

  39. Lizzie
    Mines – particularly hard rock mines – almost never rehabilitate their sites. It’s simply uneconomic. In the case of Adani, a 39 year timeframe before rehab is initiated essentially means no rehab at all. Even under the most pessimistic analysis, coal will be long gone from the scene, and the shonky Adani group, if it still exists, will have metamorphosed into something else. Probably manufacturing sex robots for colonies in the outer asteroids.
    All this for a handful of jobs.

  41. How can any “journalist” claim that Turnbull has appropriated Labor policy while still proposing a 65bn tax deduction for the wealthy corporates?

  42. Labor are working under the assumption that the next federal election will again be next year in Winter, to avoid clashing with the NSW State Election in 2019 and after the Budget when Scrote and Turnbull will offer the electorate some ‘Please Like Me’ Personal Income Tax Cuts.

    Or, giving them back their Bracket Creep, iow.

  43. Trog

    And that’s the clue – the government doesn’t think it has to sell anything to real people; they just have to get journalists to believe it.

  44. Memo to political commentators;

    If you find yourself thinking Turnbull has pulled of a masterstroke, put on a dunce’s cap, sit in a corner, and write out 100 times “Malcolm is an even bigger idiot than I am”

    Alternatively just punch yourself as hard as you can in the face.

  46. C@Tmomma

    With wage growth at record low levels the usual bracket creep ‘generosity’ will amount to a couple of brass razoos..

  47. C@t

    I have not yet given up on the belief that The Trump Imbroglio is going to be biggest shit show in town.

    If at some point, I see I got it all wrong, I promise to be the first to admit it

  49. Morrison has fucked himself on bracket creep. By only giving tax cuts to the over 80k last time and over 180k this time, the majority under this level will be expecting it to be their turn.

    Problem with that is that any move at the lower rates delivers cuts to everyone including all the higher income earners who got a lolly already. That makes it super duper expensive. Therefore can’t be afforded. It also will amount to the square root of fuck all for most even if they can find a bit of coin (debt and deficit?).

    Oh yeah, and ScoMo just hit the same people with a 0.5% tax increase in the Medicare levy.

    So the great majority won’t be grateful, and are more likely to be completely pissed that once again they get the crumbs and the rich get the full meal.

    If they have any brains at all they won’t even mention tax cuts.

  50. The Trump show seems to come in waves of extreme activity followed by a few days of relief, then it ramps up again. After the furore of last week, the weekend seemed calm, giving some time to question whether the momentum has suddenly halted.

    Monday their time and it’ll probably ramp up again, especially if their choice of new FBI director turns out to be a crony.

Comments Page 4 of 24
1 … 3 4 5 … 24

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *