ReachTEL: 53-47 and 54-46 to Labor

Disappointing results for the government from the first two voting intention measures after the budget, despite strong support for the bank and Medicare levies.

Sky News reports the first post-budget poll, from ReachTEL, has Labor leading 53-47. After exclusion of the 10.6% undecided, the primary vote results are Liberal 34.2%, Nationals 3.8%, Labor 34.1%, One Nation 11.0% and Greens 10.9%. Nonetheless, the bank levy appears to have gone down well, recording 39.8% strong support, 22.3% support, 22% neutral, 8.3% oppose, 7.9% strongly oppose, and the Medicare levy appears to have been well received as tax hikes go, with 48.2% in favour and 34.1% opposed. Nonetheless, 51.6% rated that the budget would make them worse off, 10.8% better off, and 37.6% about the same. I believe the poll was conducted last night; can’t help you with sample size at this point (UPDATE: correct on the first count, 2300 on the latter).

UPDATE: It seems a second, completely different ReachTEL poll was commissioned by Seven News and conducted on the same evening, and this one had Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46. However, no primary votes are provided, which is significant because a closer look at the numbers from the Sky News poll suggests the two-party result reflects a strong flow of respondent-allocated preferences to Labor – applying flows from last year’s federal election, the result would be 51.5-48.5. The Seven poll had similar supplementary questions and got similar answers: the bank levy recorded 60% approval and 18% disapproval, the Medicare increase 51% approval and 28% disapproval, but the budget overall was rated good or very good by only 29%, poor or very poor by 33%, and average by the rest. No sample size to relate at this point.

UPDATE 2: Here’s the regular weekly BludgerTrack update, which incorporates only the latest Essential Research results and not these two from ReachTEL.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,058 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 and 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Frankly, I don’t rate Ipsos: their primary for The Greens is always too high (ludicrously so in Victoria).

  2. wakefield @ #1041 Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 9:19 pm

    Alias – I find that most NSW ALP left, and other NSW commentators and that covers quite a few in the ABC including seemingly Sarah Ferguson, have such a mistrust or hatred of the NSW Labor Right that it clouds their vision. The position is basically that if the NSW Labor Right support something then the best position is to oppose it and vice versa.
    There is some merit in the position given the nasty history of the NSW Labor Right, but in some cases it causes poor assessments. I think some of Sarah Ferguson’s effort related to the poorly named “The Killing Season” are in that category. The stupid portrayal of Gillard in the ABC “At home with Julia” series was a much worse example.

    I am an ALP member with a healthy loathing of much of the NSW ALP Right going back to the early ’70s. There is plenty of justification.
    But oddly it still contributes some very good MPs. e.g. Tony Burke and Chris Bowen.
    “At Home With Julia” was the most appalling piece of television ever and a gross error of judgement at the ABC.
    “The Killing Fields” was, I thought, fair enough. It was a matter of great interest and all parties had their opportunity to have their say.

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