Newspoll and Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor

Two more pollsters add to an impression of little immediate change on voting intention in the wake of last week’s budget.

Two more sets of post-voting intention budget numbers, though nothing yet on their regular questions on response to the budget:

• Newspoll moves slightly in favour of Labor, who now lead 53-47 after dropping back to 52-48 in the previous poll three weeks ago. Both parties are on 36% of the primary vote, with the Coalition steady and Labor up a point, with the Greens up one to 10% and One Nation down one to 9%. The report states that Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval has improved from minus 25% to minus 20%, while Bill Shorten’s is down from minus 22% to minus 20%, although approval and disapproval ratings are not provided. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 42-33 to 44-31. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1716.

• The post-budget Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers, conducted Wednesday to Thursday from a sample of 1401, has Labor leading 53-47, down from 55-45 in the previous poll in late March. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up four to 37%, Labor down one to 35%, and the Greens down three from a hard-to-credit result last time to record 13%. Both leaders have improved substantially on person ratings, with Malcolm Turnbull up five on approval to 45% and down four to 44% – the first net positive result we’ve seen for either leader in a long time – and Bill Shorten up seven to 42% and down six to 47%. The preferred prime minister shifts from 45-33 to 47-35. Newspoll hopefully to follow.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,160 comments on “Newspoll and Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor”

  1. Thanks Voice Endeavour for your spreadsheet effort on Trump’s Gallup tracking numbers yesterday.

    Thanks also Kevin Bonham for some good reading on the current polls.

    I do have a question about your Reachtel deconstructions. From memory, because I don’t have a database of it, just about all the polls were stuck on 50-50 toward the end of the 2016 Federal campaign, including Reachtel. It got so unbending that I think either you or William or both did some commentary on “poll herding”. Anyway that’s how I remember the polls got the headline 2PP about right. No doubt the primaries are a different matter.

    So my question is, no matter what you think of the way they got there, if the Reachtel 2PP was about right, their sample weightings have probably evolved to accommodate preferences the way they do, to get the 2PP headline that most will judge them by. So without knowing the way the sample is weighted, isn’t it impossible to deconstruct the numbers? And by applying a preference model that you prefer, aren’t you in danger of amplifying a bias in weightings that are designed for a different methodology?

  2. Might as well have a moan on here as the significant other is tucked up in bed fast asleep. Been on Champix tablets for the last couple of weeks in another attempt to get off the lung busters (cigarettes for the uninitiated). Thus far things going well with none of the horrible side effects reported when using them, apart from one…. After a week of dealing with a viral nasty where all I wanted to do was sleep, I now have the opposite problem….insomnia.

  3. I was prescribed champix a couple of years ago by a doctor. I took only a few & stopped after I apparently had both hands around missus throat while I was asleep. I didn’t remember anything.
    I think they are are very dangerous drugs.
    I spent $400 on hypnotism which was a dismal failure.
    In the end, what stopped me smoking was being locked up in the coronary ward of SCGH for 3 days. It worked a treat. Plus the heart attack brought me around to the right way of thinking. When I got home I chucked everything down to the last match stick away without regret.
    I got 10 sessions of physio at the hospital gym & this plus walking every day & breathing instead of smoking has done it for me. I feel 200% on last december.
    I still cough a bit but it’s clearing up. I push myself in the gym & had walking races with the other victims. Some of us don’t want that second attack.
    I’m much fitter, I put on some weight but have arrested the gains & am turning it into muscle.
    I wanted to give smoking up for a long time but found it very hard. The health scare did it but being physically locked away from the packet for that three days is what did it. It broke the addiction.
    Now I am beholden to nothing! Nothing! Not Alcohol or tobacco or sugar.
    Think in three’s.
    Can I go without a smoke for 3 minutes?
    Then 3 hours, then 3 days, then 3 weeks, then 3 months.
    I’ve climbed the walls a few times. I have smoked a bit of green on these occasions & got so dizzy I’ve been instantly cured of wanting anymore.
    Cannabis can be a help, truely. It is not addictive like tobacco & you just cant smoke as much. A much maligned drug.
    Good luck.

  4. barry reynolds @ #1134 Tuesday, May 16, 2017 at 11:09 pm

    That makes two. I am so sick of the energy war on here. I know the protagonists are passionate about the subject but PLEASE give the rest of us a break. Why not start a Facebook page devoted to the subject? At least then I wouldn’t kill the scroll wheel on my mouse.

    Energy, the methods of harvesting it, the advantages and disadvantages of each method and the way it is implemented, the time scale on which the technologies come into fruition are top political topics.

    We are not discussing gluten free diets.
    We are not discussing cats.

    If you cannot understand that energy is one of the most important political subjects in Australia and the world, you have not been paying attention.

    Our politicians understand that energy is political.

    Remember the lump of lacquered black coal in Parliament?

    Remember the Snowies 2 brainfart by the PM?

    Remember the SA blackouts and the reasons (some false, some correct) given out by politicians and engineers?

    This is a political discussion, and this is a politics blog.

    However, if you do want to discuss fad diets and cute kittens, go ahead.

  5. LU

    Ironically, the only thing that will save coal is electric vehicle

    Coal will not be saved by anything except a reduction in the compounding annual growth in solar pv, and even that might not be enough. If electric vehicles are charged from power sources behind the meter (already cheaper than grid) then coal will not get a look in.

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