Two more sets of post-voting intention budget numbers, though nothing yet on their regular questions on response to the budget:
• Newspoll moves slightly in favour of Labor, who now lead 53-47 after dropping back to 52-48 in the previous poll three weeks ago. Both parties are on 36% of the primary vote, with the Coalition steady and Labor up a point, with the Greens up one to 10% and One Nation down one to 9%. The report states that Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval has improved from minus 25% to minus 20%, while Bill Shorten’s is down from minus 22% to minus 20%, although approval and disapproval ratings are not provided. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 42-33 to 44-31. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1716.
• The post-budget Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers, conducted Wednesday to Thursday from a sample of 1401, has Labor leading 53-47, down from 55-45 in the previous poll in late March. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up four to 37%, Labor down one to 35%, and the Greens down three from a hard-to-credit result last time to record 13%. Both leaders have improved substantially on person ratings, with Malcolm Turnbull up five on approval to 45% and down four to 44% – the first net positive result we’ve seen for either leader in a long time – and Bill Shorten up seven to 42% and down six to 47%. The preferred prime minister shifts from 45-33 to 47-35. Newspoll hopefully to follow.
Is Javascript an Indonesian play ?
Greg McAuliffe gets a gold koala stamp and a huge ‘groan’ for that effort 😆
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2017/05/poll-roundup-are-budget-bounces-ever.html
Poll Roundup: Are Budget Bounces Ever Real?
2PP aggregate 52.7 to ALP (+0.2 since pre-Budget)
Article includes detail on ReachTEL’s respondent preferencing methods and why they are wrong.
We should have nuclear because China has nuclear?
On that kind of logic, we should have soldiers with rocket launchers outside railway stations….
We live in an age when everything is about money. If it can’t make a profit in the short to medium term (5-10 years max) and can’t be weaponised it won’t be done. Probably better than other times and places where, for example, everything is about religion or who had the biggest fist / club / spear / bomb / dick…
P1’s argument, obvious to anyone, is that we ‘should’ have nuclear because it reduces CO2 emissions.
In this instance, Steve, it’s not just about money, but it’s about time as well.
So – for example – nuclear isn’t just more expensive than other options, it would take too long to get up and running.
zoomster @ #1104 Tuesday, May 16, 2017 at 9:50 pm
This is just pathetic. I had expected better of you. Foolish of me, I guess.
Dingbat
Yes, we know that. It is obvious to anyone.
P1
Fortunately, I didn’t expect better of you. To counter arguments which were clearly in the context of whether or not nuclear was practical in Australia by saying wtte (as you did) of ‘so is China wrong then?” was beyond pathetic.
If my analogy highlighted this for you, then I’m pleased.
dingbat the first @ #1106 Tuesday, May 16, 2017 at 9:58 pm
Actually, I started this discussion (responding to Boerwar’s original post) by saying that I didn’t think Australia would ever have nuclear. I still don’t.
But that seems to have escaped most of the posters who jumped in afterwards.
Because ‘nuclear’.
Gold Koala Stamp: https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/liberia-circa-1971-stamp-printed-by-173544563?src=xelbrfY5euQ-ggc1HrEMvQ-1-8
P1 – the Malcolm Roberts of PB is sucking you in again. There can be no sane discussion of energy facts or policy with P1. An alternate universe of logic where 2+2 = 69
zoomster @ #1110 Tuesday, May 16, 2017 at 10:02 pm
So first of all you make up an argument I never proposed. Then you castigate me for it?
Your analogy highlighted a few things for me. None of them very complimentary to you.
“arguments which were clearly in the context of whether or not nuclear was practical in Australia”
Except the discussion clearly referenced nuclear energy beyond Australia. It must be one of those obvious unstated assumptions like CO2 reductions underpinning all the comments even though (again) it has barely been mentioned whereas cost has been mentioned nearly every single post.
trog sorrenson @ #1113 Tuesday, May 16, 2017 at 10:08 pm
Still with the insults in place of any actual arguments, Trog?
zoomster @ #1108 Tuesday, May 16th, 2017 – 9:59 pm
That depends upon how safe, efficient, long-lasting, and non-environmentally-destructive you want your reactor to be.
At the low end, chucking a critical mass of of fissile material into a pressure vessel with some water and harvesting the steam to spin a turbine shouldn’t take long or cost much to implement. And it’ll work just fine until the radioactive material melts its way through the bottom of the pressure vessel. The steam will be highly radioactive, too, and liable to contain trace amounts of your fissile material. So the reactor doubles as an area-denial weapon.
Trog, P1 is better at mounting a cogent argument than you. No credible argument exists that we will achieve 100% renewables in less than 30 years, and you believe we should continue with coal for all that time rather than use public money for transition fuels such as gas to replace coal. You may be right, but equally you may be wrong. The case is not so clear cut to warrant the abuse. The only way we would achieve 100% renewables in a significantly shorter time frame is by throwing hundreds of billions of dollars at it and ironically the anti-P1 faction spend more time arguing for the lowest cost rather than the lowest emissions solution.
Zoomster @9:59PM: my post wasn’t about nuclear specifically, although it does apply in the sense that no one could make a profit from nuclear power in Australia without subsidies.
I am actually ‘agnostic’ about nuclear power. It is carbon neutral. The waste products, while poisonous, are not voluminous and can be managed. Problem is, they need to be managed for a VERY long time and will accumulate for as long as nuclear power is used. But continuing to pump CO2 into the atmosphere is more dangerous, in my opinion.
But managing the waste could be profitable. I am also open to Australia taking on others’ nuclear waste, a sort of export industry, importing stuff other people have to get rid of. We have lots of empty, geologically stable areas to store it. Obviously, affected land owners / lessees (including / especially indigenous) need to buy in, be appropriately compensated.
There are other ‘advantages’. Being big, dirty and dangerous (if not managed properly), it won’t attract opposition from right-wingers. However, given that in Australia we would be starting from scratch, it’s probably not a goer here. I am open to be convinced otherwise.
KB’s post is well worth a read, especially if you like hunting Yetis.
If I may comment here, I have been thinking about the polls and I now like Essential.
It is regular, doesn’t change much week to week and doesn’t seem to have as many rogues.
I think the stability reflects most voters who would have a vague impression of the budget, especially uncommitted voters, so asking them for a preference in a budget context doesn’t have much meaning.
While you guys have been busy stroking your egos and indulging in the luxury of arguing the toss, again, tonight, over Energy alternatives for your own obviously rosy futures, because who else has the time to sit here and indulge themselves so, THIS has been happening to other Australians struggling just to make ends meet:
http://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace-relations/coates-hire-workers-in-danger-of-devastating-pay-cut-20170515-gw5mc5.html
If this deal is forced on the employees, they probably won’t even be able to afford to pay their Electricity bills, let alone afford to ‘go off the grid with 100% Renewables’!
Rogues, taken to mean occasional results outside the margin of error, are supposed to happen.
Trump declares himself the absolute authority on deciding what intel to share with Russia. I’m sure U.S. allies love that and will be encouraged to continue openly sharing their intelligence with the U.S. in the future.
…to say nothing about how bad “I wanted to share with Russia” looks in the midst Trump-Russia investigations (or even the more general investigations into Russian-driven electoral sabotage). Or how that looks even worse on the back of having fired Comey over the whole “Russia thing”.
dingbat the first @ #1118 Tuesday, May 16, 2017 at 10:16 pm
50% renewables achieves the same reduction in CO2 as does 100% gas.
And as renewables go beyond 50% the reduction in CO2 continues to reduce toward zero CO2.
Wake up and smell the coffee! Malcolm Turnbull is presiding over this and a few ersatz Labor policies in the Budget can in no way disguise his mob’s true intent for this country.
I bet nothing makes Malcolm’s minions assigned to monitor this blog happier than to observe the Energy fol de rol here. In fact, one of them is probably the biggest Gish Galloper amongst the perpetrators. I wouldn’t be surprised.
The margin of error is usually taken to be half the range between the upper and lower limits of the 95% confidence interval, with the term ‘rogue’ poll referring to one that falls outside this range. So, in a well conducted poll, about one poll in 20 will be a rogue. This will occur about every second year for a poll conducted monthly.
C@
Sorry, but given my husband is entering the fifth week of being locked out of work without pay and his wage is our only income, indulging in a little discussion about issues which don’t effect me as directly is a nice distraction.
But hey, keep assuming I’m doing it from the lap of luxury and stroking my ego…
True William re rogues, I never really got a feel for statistical sampling.
Problem is if you get a rogue in a particular direction and at a particular time, as a result all of Fairfax goes off the reservation.
zoomster,
Actually, I was thinking about you when I wrote that, insofar as I would have thought that a discussion which highlighted the exigencies of that which you and your husband are facing might be a positive contribution to an understanding of what is happening to the Working Men and Women of Australia right now.
However, I can understand how you may want to block it out. I just can’t. There’s too little time and only a finite amount of energy, the real kind we have in our own little nuclear generators, our bodies, to fight the good fight. So I guess that’s what I will keep doing, whether others want me to or not because that’s the main game to me. Survival.
Anyway, as I said, I can understand why you have said what you did. 🙂
john reidy @ #1128 Tuesday, May 16, 2017 at 10:53 pm
It is not immediately apparent that a result is a rogue. Hence some will get very excited.
Anyhoo, on a lighter note, this has to be the best pen portrait of Trump (by David Brooks), that I have read:
🙂
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/when-the-world-is-led-by-a-child-20170516-gw5ri0.html
Cheers, C@.
I am bewildered by a system which can allow an employer to shut down a workplace for no good reason. If he closed the factory full stop, he would have to pay the workers out, but apparently he can lock the gates for indefinite periods of time and incur no penalties for doing so.
It simply doesn’t make sense.
Trump is a big kid?
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/comment/when-the-world-is-led-by-a-child-20170516-gw5ri0.html
That makes two. I am so sick of the energy war on here. I know the protagonists are passionate about the subject but PLEASE give the rest of us a break. Why not start a Facebook page devoted to the subject? At least then I wouldn’t kill the scroll wheel on my mouse.
“As a records manager by trade the culture and habit of the paper users is a tough nut to crack.”
I worked for a law firm in the very early 2000’s who had a fantastic electronic database seamlessly integrated in the Microsoft word tool we all used. It was a little before the time of electronic finished signed documents but short of that it was fantastic.
In the 15 years since I have worked for private business and for big accounting firms and no one has had a DMS better than the slightly structured shared windows server everyone uses. In accordance with policy I have persisted in pushing more important documents through the scanner and the 80000000 metadata / owner thingos that take longer than the document took to produce. After 2 or so years of telling colleagues ‘I put it in the DMS’ and then having to email it to them I even learned that there was a lifecycle thingo I had to tackle or it stayed in draft that no one else could see.
I assume there are better products about but it seems to me that the DMS side of electronic documents had a lot to answer for.
zoomster @ #1132 Tuesday, May 16, 2017 at 11:01 pm
There are some fixed costs associated with just having the plant sit there and there is no income. They also risk losing customers so may incur large losses in the long term.
barry reynolds @ #1134 Tuesday, May 16, 2017 at 11:09 pm
It has strange effects on people. I find myself siding with Greens. {horror}
zoomster,
I am bewildered by a system which can allow an employer to shut down a workplace for no good reason.
Tactics. As the article I linked stated, this is the employers employing a new wrinkle so as to drive their wage bill down into the ground and bring our workers crashing back to earth. As the article also stated, one of the co-owners of Coates Hire is the Carlyle Group. Americans. They are bringing their mindset to Australia and employing it ruthlessly.
And, right on cue, this is the result they are looking for:
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/wage-growth-set-to-stall-at-alltime-low-20170516-gw5uxh.html
Then there are the attacks on the unemployed from the other end via the government.
Yes, it’s depressing, but we have to face reality at the end of the day and stand and fight back, before it’s too late.
Also, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Employers have a fund that, if a business has to shut down, it sustains the owner, just like the Union funds do.
And that’s another thing the Americans, in concert with our federal government want to do. Smash the Unions.
I actually think this is one of the main reasons why Labor is still in the game, polling-wise. People are alert and alarmed about the IR policies by stealth of the Coalition government. This time it’s not particularly actions by the government, a la Workchoices, but the rearguard action by Employers. I still remember the government putting out the call for the Employers to help them prosecute their case for the reduction in Penalty Rates. Well, the employers have responded to the call, and then some! Malcolm gets to keep his clean hands that way too. Throw in a ‘Labor Lite Budget’ and everyone will fall in love with him all over again!
Yeah. Nah.
Did youse all have an energy war while I was out trying to actually do something about it?
How bloody rude.
I’m worried about a whole lot more important outcomes than the fate of Trump’s presidency if his chaotic and dysfunctional ignorance in office continues. Kenny needs to get a clue, esp as he refers to legitimate concerns about Trump’s conduct as Trump Derangement Syndrome.
player one @ #1097 Tuesday, May 16, 2017 at 9:34 pm
Well, you were the one talking about the cost to decarbonise.
It would cost a fraction as much to decarbonise using solar, wind, wave (Carnegie) and battery than it would use nuclear, and given the history of nuclear, the first installations of wind, solar and battery would be approaching the end of their economic lives before the hypothetical nuclear power plant was even close to producing its first kilowatt.
Ford slashes its workforce by 10%. So much for Trumps “jobs for Americans” crap.
[ Hundreds of workers at Australia’s largest equipment-hire business face a pay cut of up to40 per cent unless they agree to let the company slash new employees’ wages and conditions. ]
Interesting. Workers at Coates Hire get threatened with maybe having their EBA terminated and it makes the news. A W.A. University actually applies to have the EBA terminated (hearing starts on July 4 and is scheduled to run for 14 days) , with all the same consequences possible and we haven’t heard a peep in the news.
WGAFF about Universities and their staff anyway.
player one @ #1090 Tuesday, May 16, 2017 at 9:22 pm
I haven’t read the report you are talking about and can’t comment on it despite my gut feel you are misrepresenting its conclusions. I have seen some of the bills to maintain an aging coal power plant, and I have seen the rapid drop in the costs of renewable energy, embedded rewneable generation and storage. Coal and gas are not far from extinction.
Bluewaters has been in voluntary administration three times since it was commissioned in 2009, even without the impact of a carbon tax, an EIS or the high costs of maintaining an aging power plant. One of the two coal miners in Collie is again in voluntary administration, without the help of a carbon tax or EIS.
The coal industry in Australia is going to collapse due to the economics of embedded generation & storage and coal vs renewables long before the end of the economic life of any of the power plants.
http://stackoverflow.com/questions/2734025/is-javascript-guaranteed-to-be-single-threaded
zoomster @ #1132 Tuesday, May 16, 2017 at 11:01 pm
This is effectively the employer going on strike.
If the workforce does this they are liable to fines and sanctions being placed on them, why is this not the case for an employer? 🙁
A comment from the same article:
Grimace,
She’s not, but on the other hand, P1 is not adequately discounting the use of a study of a single scenario in the CSIRO/ENA analysis. It’s not cherry-picked, as it was actually developed by some of the fine people at UNSW, it’s just that the generation mix at 2050 used in the subsequent study is a single prediction of a 35 year long reinvestment process.
Ironically, the only thing that will save coal is electric vehicles.