Newspoll and Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor

Two more pollsters add to an impression of little immediate change on voting intention in the wake of last week’s budget.

Two more sets of post-voting intention budget numbers, though nothing yet on their regular questions on response to the budget:

• Newspoll moves slightly in favour of Labor, who now lead 53-47 after dropping back to 52-48 in the previous poll three weeks ago. Both parties are on 36% of the primary vote, with the Coalition steady and Labor up a point, with the Greens up one to 10% and One Nation down one to 9%. The report states that Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval has improved from minus 25% to minus 20%, while Bill Shorten’s is down from minus 22% to minus 20%, although approval and disapproval ratings are not provided. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 42-33 to 44-31. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1716.

• The post-budget Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers, conducted Wednesday to Thursday from a sample of 1401, has Labor leading 53-47, down from 55-45 in the previous poll in late March. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up four to 37%, Labor down one to 35%, and the Greens down three from a hard-to-credit result last time to record 13%. Both leaders have improved substantially on person ratings, with Malcolm Turnbull up five on approval to 45% and down four to 44% – the first net positive result we’ve seen for either leader in a long time – and Bill Shorten up seven to 42% and down six to 47%. The preferred prime minister shifts from 45-33 to 47-35. Newspoll hopefully to follow.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,160 comments on “Newspoll and Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 24
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  4. Oh those Fairfax headlines… Reminds me of Turnbull’s honeymoon period as PM when Fairfax was in love with him, a time when Turnbull was farting rainbows.

  5. Bushfire, I had a good laugh reading that article as well.

    It was as if he wanted to concentrate on anything but what this God Awful poll for the Liberals, coupled with Newspoll, and every Essential since whenever, meant for their chances.

    Ignoring every other indicator but the one Ipsos poll conducted last March (after an absence from the Federal field since June 2016) and extrapolating from that the nonsense in his article, is at best whistling in the dark, and less charitably, taking the public for fools.

  6. And at The Australian:

    PM’s budget gamble falls flat
    Australians have denied Malcolm Turnbull a political dividend following the federal budget | EXCLUSIVE

    So there we have it: two polls with the same 2PP results, one saying the Budget has been a big success,and the other that it’s a flop.

  7. The Fairfax reporting on the Ipsos belongs behind a reverse paywall. Typical house-poll myopia where a media outlet treats its own poll as the only show in town even when the most recent result is an ancient outlier.

  8. My aggregate following tonight’s polls is, unsurprisingly, 53.0, but depending on the final detail of the ReachTELs (should it ever surface) that may go up or down a few tenths. More likely up than down.

  10. Massola’s piece, and Gittins’ contribution, also in the SMH, are in my opinion two of the worse articles/opinion pieces I have ever read penned by professional journalists.
    Massola’s is an out and out simplistic and transparent con job, and Gittin’s was less believable than the efforts of the work experience kid at Menzies’ House.
    At least the kid would have been trying.

  11. Havn’t Newspolls been fewer and in that, up to 3 weeks apart a couple of times or more??
    If so, Fizzer has actually been negative for more than is reported.. Closer in reality to 30 lost.

  12. peta credlin comes out with all GUNS blazing and lets brian trumble and scomo have both barrells.
    Polls – Driven policy is the mark of a spineless party.

  13. peta credlin gives bill credit for his budget reply speech .
    With his budget U-turn, the Prime Minister hoped to avoid another Labor scare campaign by minimisingdifferences, yet Shorten understands that politics is about maximising differences, so he responded by effortlessly shifting gear. There’ll still be a Labor scare campaign on schools funding because the Coalition can never outspend the ALP.

    But now there’ll be an even more potent difference between the government and the opposition. By opposing the Medicare levy increase and by keeping the deficit levy, Shorten has just set up an election campaign against Liberals who want to tax workers more and millionaires less. The half-smart operatives who seem to drive government policy these days would have figured stealing Labor’s policy clothes as clever politics. And that’s the government’s fundamental problem.

  14. In opposition the Coalition fought on principles; in government it has played politics.

    Watching your back worried about the polls drives decision-making risk-avoidance and reactionary policy.

    But by following Labor’s lead on knifing leaders, this is a problem of its own making.

    A partyroom without the ticker to stand for something more than just their own job security stands for ­nothing.

    The same is true of leaders too.

  16. The Oz was saying how brilliant Turnbull and co were to quote Shanahan “back in the game”.Now today he says this:”Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison concocted the 2017 budget unashamedly as a political document. It has failed.”
    Shanahan is at utter failure too and should follow Massola to the dole queue.

  17. Germany:

    Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats party (CDU) has unseated rivals Social Democrats (SPD) in a key election, exit polls say.

    The CDU is projected to win 34.5% of votes in North Rhine-Westphalia, the country’s most populous state, compared with 30.5% for the SPD.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39914333

    ‘Mutti’ on a roll?

  18. (Meanwhile, next door) Austria:

    Austrian Chancellor Christian Kern has said he expects an early election “in the autumn” after his coalition partners abruptly ended their alliance.
    It comes after months of disagreements between Mr Kern’s Social Democrats and the People’s Party on policy reform.

    The coalition was thrown into doubt when the head of the People’s Party, Reinhold Mitterlehner, quit last week.

    An early election will give Austria’s far-right Freedom Party another chance of entering national government.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39915543

  19. There has been a lot of news since the last NewsPoll (even more since IPSOS but whatever), could it be that this weeks 53/47 result is not that different to the previous 52/48 but just the rounding is different. This would mean that the trend is 53/47 and the previous poll was just a low variation rather than a significant result.

    Re. IPSOS the previous poll was March 26, before that was the Snowy announcement (~ March 15) then it was a crash, now it it a ‘recovery’.

  20. If you read the Saturday Paper article on Fairfax, the drivel spouted by Massola and Gittings makes perfect sense.

  21. Melissa McCarthy’s Wrecking Of Sean Spicer Takes Trump To Rock Bottom

    Melissa McCarthy’s latest satire of White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer showed that the American people had lost all faith in Trump and his White House to tell them the truth about anything.

    Full Saturday Night Live : Melissa starts around 18.55 – it’s a classic

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YOIdWjxf95A

  22. As Russia Scandal Blows Up, Trump Tantrums And Threatens To Fire Nearly His Entire White House

    Donald Trump is mad because he is failing as president, and he is considering firing his Chief of Staff Reince Priebus, chief strategist Steve Bannon, White House counsel Don McGahn and press secretary Sean Spicer. Trump is also angry at his own cabinet.

    The only thing dumber than firing the FBI Director who is investigating his campaign for potential treason would be for Trump to fire his senior White House staff, many of whom know things about the Trump campaign and Russia.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/05/14/russia-scandal-blows-up-trump-tantrums-threatens-fire-entire-white-house.html

  23. rime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s cyber security adviser, Alastair MacGibbon, said on Sunday there had been one confirmed incident in Australia, but warned it was likely more computer systems would eventually be hit.

    “People going back to work on Monday may switch on their computers and see their systems have been impacted,” he said.

    http://www.theage.com.au/technology/technology-news/first-australian-business-infected-in-global-cyber-attack-20170514-gw4n9n.html

  24. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Well after throwing away their debt and deficit credibility, their ideology and many of their policies the Coalition has nothing left in the locker.

    Massola uses the last, questionable Ipsos poll as a basis for concluding that Turnbull has had a budget boost. Nice work James!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/big-spending-higher-taxing-budget-delivers-turnbull-poll-boost–but-shorten-ahead-20170514-gw4ecp.html
    Michael Gordon also falls into the same trap, saying the government is “back in the game”. But he cautions them to not pop the champagne corks just yet.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/a-tick-for-the-federal-budget-but-hold-the-champagne-malcolm-20170514-gw4lfs.html
    And Mark Kenny says the Ipsos poll gives the government something to build on.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/fairfaxipsos-poll-budget-gives-malcolm-turnbull-something-to-build-on-20170514-gw4g4s.html
    Laura Tingle goes OTT over the Ipsos result! Google.
    /news/fairfax-ipsos-poll-shows-a-decisive-turnaround-for-turnbull-and-strong-approval-for-the-budget-20170514-gw4m0y
    On the OTHER hand The Australian is saying the government’s budget gamble has not paid off. Fallen flat, in fact. Google.
    /national-affairs/newspoll/newspoll-pms-budget-gamble-backfires/news-story/8461a7d602f23f8e2601ad87deb6eaf5
    And Peta Credlin has a HUGE spit! The Coalition is “spineless” and “Shorten’s budget reply demonstrated that his political savvy vastly exceeds that of his opponents”. Google.
    /opinion/pollsdriven-policy-is-the-mark-of-a-spineless-party/news-story/49e9f3a2cee557367d0fa36f07127760
    Katharine Murphy says that last week’s big-spending, big-taxing budget hasn’t delivered the Turnbull government an immediate political lifeline, with two new opinion polls suggesting Labor retains a comfortable election-winning lead.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/may/15/coalitions-budget-fails-to-deliver-newspoll-gains-as-labor-inches-further-ahead
    The New Daily says that “Last week’s federal budget has failed to deliver a change in fortune for Malcolm Turnbull’s government with a new poll showing voters have dismissed his economic reset and shifted their support towards the ALP and the Greens”.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/05/14/budget-2017-newspoll-government-slips/
    Wayne Swan writes about “Australian Laborism”.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/14/the-hawke-keating-agenda-was-laborism-not-neoliberalism-and-is-still-a-guiding-light

  25. Section 2 . . .

    Urban Wronski on “A dodgy bastard’s budget of lies”.
    https://urbanwronski.com/2017/05/14/a-dodgy-bastards-budget-of-lies/
    The ColesWorth price war has spilled over into Aldi.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/aldi-buys-into-supermarket-price-war-20170514-gw4gb3.html
    No punishment is harsh enough for this sort of mongrels!
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/queensland-man-arrested-after-massive-child-porn-seizure-in-philippines-raid-20170514-gw4d2w.html
    Shorten and Plibersek need to be careful over the Catholic school funding issue as this report shows that Catholic Education has been favouring rich schools over the more needy. Google.
    /leadership/new-figures-show-catholics-direct-funds-to-rich-schools-at-expense-of-poor-ones-20170511-gw2j58
    Greg Jericho says that the budget finally admits ‘revenue problem’, but attacks on welfare are the same old spin.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2017/may/14/gasp-budget-finally-admits-revenue-problem-but-attacks-on-welfare-are-the-same-old-spin
    Turnbull and Morrison surprised the big end of town with their new levy, but they could face the same backlash that sank the mining tax writes Lenore Taylor.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/13/the-bank-levy-is-out-there-now-its-up-to-ministers-to-resist-the-corporate-lobby
    Paul McGeough writes that behind all the sound and fury, Trump’s ‘Russia thing’ that will not go away.
    http://www.theage.com.au/world/behind-all-the-sound-and-fury-trumps-russia-thing-that-will-not-go-away-20170514-gw4hj8.html
    And a top Harvard constitutional law professor is calling for an impeachment investigation into Donald Trump for obstruction of justice, branding the president’s firing of FBI Director James Comey as an “obvious effort to interfere with a probe involving national security.”
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/05/14/harvard-constitutional-scholar-calls-for-trump-impeachment-probe_a_22085560/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage
    Senate Republicans are warning that the odds are high that Trumpcare is going to fail in the Senate, which is going to leave Republicans begging to do a deal with Democrats on health care.
    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/05/14/republicans-begging-democrats-deal-trumpcare-failing-senate.html

  26. Ex-NY FBI head: Trump White House staffers ‘better damn well’ get attorneys

    Known for his litigiousness, President Donald Trump has already threatened to sue organizations he disagrees with in court — but according to sources familiar with White House scandals, his staff might be the ones who need lawyers.

    According to sources interviewed by POLITICO, staffers in the Trump White House may need their own counsel to protect against prosecution should legal scandal come to Pennsylvania Ave.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/05/ex-ny-fbi-head-trump-white-house-staffers-better-damn-well-get-attorneys/

  27. Section 3 . . .

    At the root of Trump’s unpredictable presidency, according to people close to him, is a deep frustration about attacks on his legitimacy, and a worry that Washington does not see him as he sees himself.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/world/donald-trump-still-seethes-over-lack-of-credit-for-his-election-win-20170514-gw4dyb.html
    The NSW government will step in and investigate the RSL’s financial scandals, declaring itself “fed up” with the league’s own efforts to investigate claims of possible fraud and cover-ups by some leaders.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/fed-up-government-launches-formal-rsl-investigation-20170514-gw4iws.html
    Amy Remeikis writes that mutual obligation are about to become two of the most-heard words for those within the welfare system, as Australia shifts closer to New Zealand’s controversial system. Porter just loves it!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/mutual-obligation-the-catchphase-of-new-welfare-reforms-20170513-gw47sg.html
    But Mary Ellen Harrod writes that once the “crackdown” takes effect and we withhold benefits from people who use drugs, what happens next? The consequences to people who use drugs on social welfare may well be catastrophic.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/drug-testing-could-have-catastrophic-consequences-for-welfare-recipients-20170510-gw1bl7.html
    Ross Gittins talks about the “spending ratchet”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/budget-shows-liberals-paying-for-labors-bigger-government-as-usual-20170513-gw45ah.html
    The National Broadband Network has a database setting out ¬estimated internet speeds for new connections for millions of homes nationwide but is denying the public access, despite gouging by telcos selling high-speed connections that are unattainable. It’s a cone of silence. Google.
    /business/technology/nbn-enters-cone-of-silence-on-estimated-internet-speed/news-story/0414c1cce4d3630c928bce324858c501
    Former US director of National Intelligence James Clapper warned on Sunday that the nation’s institutions were being undermined by President Donald Trump after his decision last week to fire FBI director James Comey.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/james-clapper-says-us-institutions-under-assault-from-donald-trump-20170514-gw4q6o.html
    Michael Koziol has a story on a secret recording that reveals that our offshore retention system is broken.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/the-system-here-is-broken-secret-recording-reveals-failures-of-offshore-detention-regime-20170511-gw2q5v.html
    The Turnbull Government has officially eradicated the environment from the2017-2018 Budget and from policy.
    https://independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/the-disastrous-omission-of-the-environment-from-budget-2017,10294
    Jess Irvine on why the bank levy is a good idea.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/why-the-bank-levy-is-a-good-idea-not-just-a-populist-tax-grab-20170513-gw481h.html

  28. Section 4 . . . with Cartoon Corner

    Survivors of abuse in Australian children’s homes and orphanages have called for a new national strategy to secure the release of their own historic personal records held by churches and charities. The CA Royal Commission will hand down its final report by the end of the year.
    http://www.smh.com.au/act-news/abuse-survivors-want-their-own-personal-records-handed-over-from-institutions-20170508-gw06os.html
    The senate committee looking into the role of the media in light of Fifield’s “media reach” legislation could be very interesting – if not quite useful.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/how-sam-dastyari-can-make-a-real-difference-to-australian-media-20170512-gw3jbt.html

    Cathy Wilcox homes in on Trump.

    This is clever.

    Cathy Wilcox and the “plight” of the big banks.

    Jon Kudelka drops in on the big bankers club.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/84e1ea50eae98ebc2a7c23e4b9e53015

  29. Thanks BK. So the post budget polling delivers something for everyone, depending on how you want to interpret the budget reception. LOL!

  30. Morning all

    Thanks BK, PhoenixRed for the latest reports.
    Our msm need to realise that out in the electorate people are experiencing stagnant wages, and casualised and contract work for the younger ones in particular. Add the changes to penalty rates, and the now exhorbitant costof housing, which flows on to the rental market. It is not too hard to understand that this govt is not popular.
    Meanwhile I noticed Williams comment from yesterday re Louise Mensch. I understand them. I thought the same way about her, but her reportage on the Trump imbroglio has been on the money so far and She has been a very reliable source. Therefore until such time she shows otherwise, I am following her reportage.

  31. Good Morning Bludgers 🙂

    Thank you, FredNK for the John Clarke Retrospective link. It brightened up my morning. 🙂

  32. Laura Tingle goes OTT over the Ipsos result! Google.
    /news/fairfax-ipsos-poll-shows-a-decisive-turnaround-for-turnbull-and-strong-approval-for-the-budget-20170514-gw4m0y

    Why am I not surprised in the least that Ms Laura Tingle, she of the positively Rubenesque figure and stellar intelligence and analytic powers, has written a back-scratcher for Turnbull?

  33. Peta Credlin has a HUGE spit! The Coalition is “spineless” and “Shorten’s budget reply demonstrated that his political savvy vastly exceeds that of his opponents”.

    Although I have absolutely no time for Credlin as a person she has far more cred when it comes to political tactics than any of the confused amateurs who have come out criticising Shorten and praising Turnbull as some kind of genius. How ironic that it took her, of all people, to recognise the worth of Bill Shorten’s BIR speech – pointing out the need for product differentiation in politics, while the others just saw it as “appalling tactics” (to quote Tingle). Well called Peta Credlin.

  34. victoria Monday, May 15, 2017 at 7:46 am

    Meanwhile I noticed Williams comment from yesterday re Louise Mensch. I understand them. I thought the same way about her, but her reportage on the Trump imbroglio has been on the money so far and She has been a very reliable source. Therefore until such time she shows otherwise, I am following her reportage.

    ********************************************
    I have said before – that Louise Mensch is indeed a very strange person ( reporting on a very weirder POTUS Trump ! ) but so far what she has reported has been accurate and ahead of mainstream media ( who obviously use greater scrutiny of anything they intend to report ) From her past in the UK, I think she has ‘contacts ‘ in the IC ( MI6, past and present ) and her information has been supported by many others. ……. same with exNSA John Schindler who supports Louise ….

    However, as I said yesterday, am holding my breath till the *latest* gets confirmed by mainstream/official sources …… and as Jenauthor said – it is still the weekend in the US and nothing would be happening in public view until the normal week comes around ..

    Like Victoria – I will go along with the Mensch reports until the truth comes out one way or the other

  35. James Clapper: democratic institutions are ‘under assault’ by Trump

    Former director of national intelligence James Clapper has accused Donald Trump of placing American democratic institutions “under assault” following the sacking of James Comey and cautioned that the former FBI director’s removal is “another victory” for Russia.

    “I think in many ways our institutions are under assault,” Clapper told CNN’s State of the Union on Sunday. “Both externally, and that’s the big news here, is Russian interference in our election system. And I think as well our institutions are under assault internally.”

    When asked to clarify if the internal assault came from the president directly, the former spy chief added: “Exactly.”

    In a later interview on ABC news, Clapper added that “the Russians have to consider this [Comey’s sacking] as another victory on the scoreboard for them”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/may/14/james-clapper-donald-trump-russia-james-comey-firing

  36. Woke up to see the front page of the Age state poll results: Libs 47 up 2, Labs 53 down 2.

    The question I have, when was the poll ever 45/55.

    It reminds me when I worked for a company that did surveys every year to see how they were going. Every year they were getting a little better on all variables. The CEO was happy, the survey company was happy. After several years I queried how things always appeared to get better, but always seemed at the same level! It turns out the survey company simply reduced the previous year’s results by a few points to make sure there was always an ‘improvement’.

  37. Very surprised to hear no mention of any of the polls on ABC radio news.

    AM did mention them, but only as an excuse to have the lying Hunt on. He is apparently really offended that Shorten has ‘turned his back on the disabled’.

  38. The front page headline in the SMH for James Massola’s Ipsos article last night:

    Fairfax-Ipsos poll: Budget delivers much-needed government boost

    And this morning:

    Post-budget poll boost not enough for Coalition as voters flock to Labor

    They were for the same article. It appears that the government gets a much-needed boost when the voters flock to Labor… or something.

    See what a change of shift in the sub-editors cubicle can do?

    Meanwhile, down the corridor at the AFR… Laura Tingle has gone positively girlish over Malcolm.Or is it her second childhood?

    There, there Laura, just take this tablet and you’ll feel better.

    The Fairfax/Ipsos poll will certainly be grounds for immense relief within the government: a decisive turnaround in the trend and a much-needed lift in the Coalition’s primary vote, though obviously there is further room to travel.

    This Ipsos is worse than the last one and a marginal improvement on April’s poll, which was 55-45.

    White is the new black. Anything that’s not 55-45 gives immense relief. While next door at the SMH Labor has voters flocking to it because the government received a much-needed boost, Laura is in no doubt: the same punters have been thinking of Snowy 2.0, Gonski 2.0, Medicare 3.1.4.2.0 and and now love Malcolm 2.0 because he stole Labor’s policies 1.0. Poor Bill Shorten gets 0.0 out of 10.0, floundering around as he is with nothing to do because all his policies have scarpered to the other side.

    Is Malcolm Turnbull clever, or is he clever??? Laura’s dream of a new Age Of Enlightenment has come true at last.

    Her article is an orgy of self-fulfillment. Yesterday on Insiders she said the Budget had been a triumph, and by God today she’s telling us all she was right. Just look at the poll numbers: worse than last time, but better than the worst they’ve ever been. That’s gotta count for something!

    Break out the champagne… just the cheap stuff, mind youse, because there’s “further room to travel”.

    The only “further room” Laura Tingle should be in is a padded cell. Pronto.

  39. PhoenixRed
    Cheers.
    Anyhoo I just watched Melissa McCarthy reprising her role as Spicy. Thanks for posting. It was hilarious!

  40. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/12/popularity-of-sushi-has-brought-rise-in-parasitic-infections-warn-doctors-anisakiasis

    The British Medical Journal just reported a case of a man in Lisbon who had recently eaten sushi and was found to have writhing anisakis larvae in his inflamed gut.

    Eugh! How often does this sort of thing happen? It’s more common in Japan, but doctors warn that the west’s love affair with sushi is leading to a rise in cases.

    So we might all have these weird worms driving us around? Humans are a dead-end host for anisakis; it can’t survive long in you.

    What are we meant to do about it? The official advice is to freeze your fish for four days before making sushi.

    https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/shortcuts/2017/may/14/sushi-parasite-worm-fish

  43. victoria Monday, May 15, 2017 at 8:21 am
    PhoenixRed
    Cheers.
    Anyhoo I just watched Melissa McCarthy reprising her role as Spicy. Thanks for posting. It was hilarious!

    ***************************************
    As another report stated – THIS is what America has become under Trump & Co – the laughing stock of the world – but Melissa is just brilliant …..

  45. The criminal justice system damages women, children, men, entire communities. Governments need to get rid of laws that are criminalising so many of our women. When women go to jail, kids are often left behind and go into the child protection system. We have no trust in that system.

    “Tough on crime” does not work. We need more prevention and diversion. Governments should be looking for ways to close prisons. Governments, courts and police need to work with and learn from Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people. We know the solutions – investment in housing, education and health – that’s what makes a difference and helps communities stay strong and healthy.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/15/i-was-on-heroin-and-homeless-at-13-and-the-system-is-still-failing-indigenous-women

  48. Some sobering advice:

    But liberals need to accept that the strongest case for removing Trump from office is likely to remain a 25th Amendment case: not high crimes and misdemeanors, not collusion with the Russians, but a basic mental unfitness for the office that manifests itself in made-for-TV crises and self-inflicted wounds.

    And since a 25th Amendment solution would require Republican leaders, beginning with Mike Pence, to not only go along with his removal but take the lead in instigating it, it’s about as realistic as was the idea that those same leaders would somehow intervene against Trump at the Republican convention. Pence, Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell — these men made their peace with Trump’s unfitness long ago. It will take more than further proof of that unfitness to make them move against him now.

    This week reminded us why Donald Trump should not be the president of the United States. But if you wish to remove him, think on 2020. The rest, for now, is noise.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/13/opinion/donald-trump-does-not-surprise.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=0

  49. It can’t have escaped the attention of the Fairfax journos that the paper is in the process of shedding labour and that it is usually the lefties who get the boot. Further, those who stayed on and work during the strike are probably redefining their political stances to account for that.
    The weirdest thing is that most Herald readers would be centre to centre left.

  50. [ Shorten has just set up an election campaign against Liberals who want to tax workers more and millionaires less. ]

    Pretty much. And they have the $65B in big business tax cuts to play with. Shortens speech was a good one for content and marking out position going forward.

    That said, the coalition WILL get some political benefit out of the budget. I think a lot of the journo’s are taking the position that if the Govt does ANYTHING that has even a whiff of the appearance of policy then that a good thing worthy of praise, and it validates the rosy view that a lot of them had / have and are trying to maintain of Malcolm. Leads then to continuously under estimate Shorten though.

    I always find it amusing that they seem to have forgotten how well Shorten performed one on one against their hero Malcolm during the campaign and “debates”.

    Anyhow, now the speeches are done cue much calling for “bipartisanship” (lib speak for DO WHAT I TELL YOU NOW I AM BORN TO RULE!!!!) in regards to budget legislation. ScoMo channeling Mr Shouty and Malcolm the sarcy barrister wanker.

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