Two more sets of post-voting intention budget numbers, though nothing yet on their regular questions on response to the budget:
• Newspoll moves slightly in favour of Labor, who now lead 53-47 after dropping back to 52-48 in the previous poll three weeks ago. Both parties are on 36% of the primary vote, with the Coalition steady and Labor up a point, with the Greens up one to 10% and One Nation down one to 9%. The report states that Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval has improved from minus 25% to minus 20%, while Bill Shorten’s is down from minus 22% to minus 20%, although approval and disapproval ratings are not provided. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 42-33 to 44-31. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1716.
• The post-budget Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers, conducted Wednesday to Thursday from a sample of 1401, has Labor leading 53-47, down from 55-45 in the previous poll in late March. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up four to 37%, Labor down one to 35%, and the Greens down three from a hard-to-credit result last time to record 13%. Both leaders have improved substantially on person ratings, with Malcolm Turnbull up five on approval to 45% and down four to 44% – the first net positive result we’ve seen for either leader in a long time – and Bill Shorten up seven to 42% and down six to 47%. The preferred prime minister shifts from 45-33 to 47-35. Newspoll hopefully to follow.
Rossmore,
I suspect Shorten’s Australia First ad is what riled Mega and provoked the reaction today.
I suspect you’re correct. I just had a quick look at his Twitter timeline. He was ‘Not Happy, Bill!’ about the ad.
Sohar – are you member of a union? How long since you went on strike at work? Fairfax journos have just done a brave action of going on unprotected strike action for a week over significant issues. We should be supporting these workers and understanding the difficult position they are in as workers. Of course their bosses want them to write crap neo-liberal analysis etc but they need support.
I know strikers doesn’t include Mega George and Tingle but statements that MSM journos are owned by bosses just denies human action and solidarity in opposition?
rossmore @ #49 Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 10:16 pm
Huh? The smart politics I was referring to was to include others obviously of a non-European ethnicity. This wasn’t done.
It was not dog whistling. 457s and other visa types are a very real problem in some industries.
When does Newspoll #30 arrive?
C@
What that stupid ad says to me is how many journos are frustrated witless waiting for something, anything to attack Labor over.
CC
Whatever they try its not working and looks never likely to work either.
Abbott will be out there again soon spewing his bile after those results.
Cud Chewer,
What that stupid ad says to me is how many journos are frustrated witless waiting for something, anything to attack Labor over.
I had exactly the same thought. There seemed an almost unseemly salivation on the part of some journos at the ‘mistake’.
Cupid it shows just how careful Shorten has to be and how being boring is a good strategy.
George Megaloginis has written before about the economic benefits immigration has brought to Australia. He’s done far more research on this topic than I have so I’m not going to argue that with him (especially as I pretty much agree with him). He’s also been pretty critical of those advocating any form of “white” immigration policy (again something I agree with him on).
So I think he probably found the recent ALP advert upsetting.
Note I didn’t watch Insiders this morning. NHK TV didn’t seem to have it on for some reason. The hotel does have BBC and CCN. However, the transmissions have someone translating over the top in Japanese so I have no idea what they’re saying (not that you normally see anything about Australia in the news when travelling anyway).
Peter Whish-Wilson has a very good point:
http://www.smh.com.au/business/budget-2017-insider-trading-fears-grow-over-bank-levy-leak-20170510-gw265d.html
I think they should take the number of seats Turnbull lost off the number of Newspolls he can trail before #libspill. : )
Another embarrassing result for the MSM commentariat. Insiders this morning was particularly cringe worthy.
If Murdoch wanted to speed up the process of reaching the magic number 30 as a trigger for disposing of Turnbull, he could commission a Newspoll every week. After all, Essential is every week.
@TrueFactsStated: Sealed indictments out of Eastern District of Virginia-under Dana Boente. Trump, Manafort and Flynn-among others under sealed indictment.
Dana Burnett briefly succeeded Sally Yates. Smart, principled lawyer.
b.c. @ #60 Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 10:35 pm
What rubbish!
It is not about immigration. It is about the desire of predatory employers to bring in labour they can exploit.
Rossmore @ #65 Sunday, May 14th, 2017 – 10:38 pm
Burnett or Boente, which is it? Such simple errors don’t exactly inspire confidence. Though sounds like now the task of verification can be handled by any member of the media who can track this person down and ask them if it’s true.
I think it was PvO who wrote that Newspoll #30 would arrive around February next year.
The impact of this budget on polling may not have happened yet, just no sugar hit. However as mentioned above the penalty rate changes are happening in 6 weeks.
People may give the government the benefit of the doubt,but don’t believe them yet. For that to happen they would have to do something major,like support the unions in a wage case (which I can’t see happening). On its own this budget isn’t enough to turn the tanker around.
Perhaps sucking up to Trump has blown Turnbull’s cred more than he thinks.
Well these results put paid to any thoughts Turnbull had of an early election.
Boente AR … damn autocorrect
I wonder how Fairfax will write up their Ipsos, given it shows an improvement against one previous poll?
This is where having a small , variously timed sample set is a problem.
antonbruckner11 @ #12 Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 9:39 pm
Yes, I agree with that. The next couple of months will be critical. To see if they can change the narrative to “we thought this Gonski, NDIS, and bank bashing stuff was cool but only we know who to do it responsibility”.
My guess is they will fail to make that concept stick but it looks like they are going to have a crack over the next couple of months.
question @ #62 Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 10:36 pm
In fairness you should then add the number of seats the Liberals were done to lose at the change from Abbott.
… were down to lose …
not “done” 🙁
Mikehilliard
It’s the kind of thing pundits don’t notice but makes a big impression on punters who aren’t political.
He was treated like crap and grinned through it like a loon, and then complimented Trump on his efforts to destroy Obama care.
My local ALP state member is facebooking precisely what Gonski 2.0 means for local schools via a vis the full aLP Gonski. The local State high school stands to lose $1.3M per annum or about 10 teachers.
Far more powerful than the so called master stroke of having Gonski at the Turnbull presser…
Honestly, if Turnbull gets up to losing 20 or so Newspolls in a row I don’t think the party will hang around waiting for number 30.
But Barney. Then they have to take off the seats Abbott won in 2010 and 2013 (wink smiley).
Far more powerful than the so called master stroke of having Gonski at the Turnbull presser…
All that showed was that David Gonski had been bought by Turnbull and the pretext was his ‘Review’.
alias @ #14 Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 9:42 pm
Yeah, it might not stop here either. Would not be surprised if there is move movement on renewables to try to muddy the water in that policy pond. I don’t think a weaker Newspoll a few days after the budget is enough to conclude this act of desperation has, as yet, failed.
Grim,
I didn’t bother with Oakes’ early election article. Fantasy land.
When will they wake up?
bemused Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 10:41 pm
I obviously wasn’t clear enough. I apologise. I was trying to say that George is very sensitive to anything that can be perceived as being critical of Australia’s non-discriminatory immigration system.
I assume you are referring to the exploitation of some workers on 457 and student visas. I agree with you on that. I also think the 457 visa program has been abused to bring in cheaper labour when people with the requisite skills are available in Australia. This is particularly notable in the IT industry in which I work.
Work to rule,
But these polls and the form guide of the past year or so suggests failure is highly likely.
Of course the one point move is not statistically significant, the margin of error being about 2.4%, but as another poster said after the Budget, the media will make a big deal of any change in poll numbers.
question @ #79 Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 10:56 pm
Lets face it, it’s a bullsh!t metric.
The Libs are digging themselves into a very big hole under Turnbull but there’s no one else as good or better to lead them. 🙂
Barney
I think even the pundits agree with us on that. Something or other about Turnbull being the spare tyre… when that fails it will turn into a wreck.
[ The pundits are doing what they have always done with Turnbull. Squinting for the new dawn. Also underestimating Shorten. It’s tedious and usually wrong. ]
Agreed Q. Tingle and George Mega are always worth hearing, but i do not agree with their analysis on Insiders today.
b.c. @ #83 Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 11:01 pm
Well it turns out, after that little misunderstanding, we are in furious agreement.
I am not opposed to immigration at all.
[ My local ALP state member is facebooking precisely what Gonski 2.0 means for local schools via a vis the full aLP Gonski. ]
Lol! ALP machine runs its “ground game” between elections, while the Libs “machine” is thoroughly broken. Who’d a thunk it. 🙂
The Editorial Board of The New York Times don’t hold back on Donald Trump:
President Trump Craves Loyalty, but Offers None
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/12/opinion/president-trump-craves-loyalty-but-offers-none.html?smprod=nytcore-iphone&smid=nytcore-iphone-share&utm_content=buffera53ef&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer&_r=0
With due apologies to Godwin, but didn’t Hitler also demand pledges of loyalty to himself.
b.c. @ #92 Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 11:25 pm
Indeed he did. Members of the armed forces for example had to swear a personal oath of loyalty to Hitler.
I said a few polls ago that it appeared as though things have settled at 52/48 to 54/46 2PP. Nothing in th last couple of days convinces me to change my view.
At these levels the average punter has stopped listening in the sense that they feel they have you placed in the scheme of things and almost no matter what happens that view is hard to shake.
For those that are listening, the switch from debt and deficit disaster and criticising Labor for being a tax and spend party to denial and an embrace of that which you previously criticised just leaves them wondering what do you believe.
Finally, the old adage of politics that disunity is death plays into this. The coalition is split on personalit and policy and it is obvious to all. Labor on the other hand since December 2013 when the foci of their disunity, Rudd and Gillard, were gone were back in the game and have been able to maintain the view that they are unified on both personality and more importantly policy.
I think all of the commentary about this being a ‘labor budget’ has given labor a boost as it’s essentially allowed labor to take credit for the more popular ideas, whilst burdening the LNP with the responsibility for everything else. That’s a hell of a backfire in terms of what the LNP and those sympathetic to them in the media wanted, which was presumably for them to win some support back from those in the centre.
blanket criticism @ #95 Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 11:40 pm
Excellent point!
He will be missed:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=539bkrv7g2k
It’s also a bit hard to sell the 1% paying 1.5% less tax and everyone else paying 0.5% more as “fair”.
Nobody will even want to listen to Halal Mal when he goes on the speaking circuit within a few weeks when he becomes a Former PM. He has no legacy whatsoever.
Well if anyone thought this was a bad poll for the government, read James Massola.
He doesn’t think so. In fact he thinks the opposite.
In other words:”Could have been a lot worse. Could have been as bad as the March poll.”
We have a new benchmark, apparently. Anything better than 55-45 is a triumph for Turnbull.
I can hardly wait for the next brilliant reset.