Newspoll and Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor

Two more pollsters add to an impression of little immediate change on voting intention in the wake of last week’s budget.

Two more sets of post-voting intention budget numbers, though nothing yet on their regular questions on response to the budget:

• Newspoll moves slightly in favour of Labor, who now lead 53-47 after dropping back to 52-48 in the previous poll three weeks ago. Both parties are on 36% of the primary vote, with the Coalition steady and Labor up a point, with the Greens up one to 10% and One Nation down one to 9%. The report states that Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval has improved from minus 25% to minus 20%, while Bill Shorten’s is down from minus 22% to minus 20%, although approval and disapproval ratings are not provided. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 42-33 to 44-31. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1716.

• The post-budget Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers, conducted Wednesday to Thursday from a sample of 1401, has Labor leading 53-47, down from 55-45 in the previous poll in late March. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up four to 37%, Labor down one to 35%, and the Greens down three from a hard-to-credit result last time to record 13%. Both leaders have improved substantially on person ratings, with Malcolm Turnbull up five on approval to 45% and down four to 44% – the first net positive result we’ve seen for either leader in a long time – and Bill Shorten up seven to 42% and down six to 47%. The preferred prime minister shifts from 45-33 to 47-35. Newspoll hopefully to follow.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,160 comments on “Newspoll and Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 15 of 24
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  1. Will be interesting to see where this kerfuffle goes. Trump blabbing and exactly what he blabbed should be easy to verify as the meeting will have been recorded.

    Appropriate members of congress review the records and issue a statement of the facts for the record. Simple.

    If Trump IS found blabbed sensitive stuff then he will disappear up his own bottom in gyrations to try and deflect blame onto anyone else…….. and/or run the line that its ok as the Russians are his friends now and have been for some time so he knows them well…………

  2. GG

    I agree re McCain playing the longer game. I also view this latest development as part of an overall strategy. It is to sow the seeds of distrust within the GOP and the General public.

  4. [ McCain might be playing a longer game.
    He’s said plenty about Trump in the past. So, adding fuel to the bonfire in public is not necessarily beneficial to someone looking to be perceived as a Statesman in this environment. ]

    Concur GG. I wouldn’t be down on MCain on this as yet. He’ll be waiting for verification but not want to be totally silent on this.

  5. No excuses for McCain.

    All he has to say IF true this is treason Impeach now. Let justice take its course.

    Thats the neutral position.

  8. You are all wrong about Trump spilling the beans to the Ruskis. He’s a great leader ’cause Brian said so… lol

    Tom.

  9. …furthermore, the problem with Bill Mitchell is that he has a pet theory, which is not going to be accepted (at least in the immediate future) by any government.

    We all have those. But to make a meaningful contribution, we put them to one side and talk about what is actually achievable.

    For Bill’s contributions to be useful and relevant, he needs to say wtte of “My approach would solve this crisis in this way, however I accept that it’s unlikely my approach would be implemented, so here’s what can happen now.”

  10. Guytaur

    Just for a moment think of a duck swimming. It appears to glide effortlessly through the water. Yet underneath it is paddling away! That is how you have to observe what is going on with the Trump imbroglio

  13. GG

    Claude Taylor and Mensch reported on this a couple of days ago. We are hoping this is accurate. The msm so far is not reporting this

  14. victoria Tuesday, May 16, 2017 at 9:08 am
    Guytaur
    Just for a moment think of a duck swimming. It appears to glide effortlessly through the water. Yet underneath it is paddling away! That is how you have to observe what is going on with the Trump imbroglio

    ************************************************

    Putin must be pissing himself ……………… true or not ….. he has thrown America and its government into total chaos and instability ……

  16. Victoria

    Yes but one example. Bannon was demoted.. He has a reason to want the press to go after Trump if he was not involved directly himself with Russia. Also true of anyone else in Trump administration.

    Plus patriotic career staffers could be leaking. Who knows they could have even got hold of the tapes Trump alleged exist.

  17. Peter van Onselen‏Verified account @vanOnselenP 1h1 hour ago
    What’s worse: to have wrongly assumed Clinton would win or to have wrongly assumed Trump would be an ok President? I wonder…

    Haha. I may have been in the former category, but I was in no way in the latter!

  19. McMaster is denying the Intel leak by Trump.
    McMaster tells reporters that the WaPo story “as reported, is false” – “I was in the room, it didn’t happen”

    Wasington Post repsonds:

    “The White House is playing word games” Greg Miller, WaPo in response to McMaster. Stands by report.

  20. PhoenixRed

    Again I reiterate my view that this latest leak, is part of the strategy of ultimate goal to “castrate” Trump.
    putin may be laughing now, but it will be short lived.

  21. Looks like the NSW government is in a bit of turmoil:

    Gladys accused of micromanaging
    EXCLUSIVE: Cabinet ministers have been left wondering when they will have time to run their portfolios in the face of Premier Gladys Berejiklian’s micromanaging. (DT headline)

  22. What’s the difference between Donald Trump & Richard Nixon?

    Richard Nixon actually won the popular vote

  23. GG

    Do you reckon if Trump was a contestant on “The Apprentice’ he would have been fired by now?

    Turnbull certainly would have.

  24. Guytaur

    The leaks are strategic and for a specific purpose. Unless Trump resigns, getting rid of him is not a straightforward task.

  26. VABVOX: Trump has put lives at risk with his endless need to brag.
    That’s the bottom line, says Greg Miller who broke the story.
    @CNN

  28. WaPo’s Greg Miller – who broke story – says on CNN WH is “playing word games.” Says McMaster denied actions they didn’t actually report

  29. TeddyDavisCNN: Fmr Asst Sec for Homeland Security @juliettekayyem warns that compromising sources & methods could persuade ISIS to speed up any terror plot

  30. Greensborough Growler Tuesday, May 16, 2017 at 9:27 am

    WaPo’s Greg Miller – who broke story – says on CNN WH is “playing word games.” Says McMaster denied actions they didn’t actually report

    *******************************************
    Seeing as only the Russians were at the meeting, Putin probably told them to ring the Washington Post after the meeting and give out the information on Trump ……

  32. JohnBarronUSA: “This is the most serious charge made against a sitting President in history” Alan Dershowitz on @CNN

  33. phoenixRED @ #730 Tuesday, May 16th, 2017 – 9:33 am

    Greensborough Growler Tuesday, May 16, 2017 at 9:27 am

    WaPo’s Greg Miller – who broke story – says on CNN WH is “playing word games.” Says McMaster denied actions they didn’t actually report

    *******************************************
    Seeing as only the Russians were at the meeting, Putin probably told them to ring the Washington Post after the meeting and give out the information on Trump ……

    Are you saying Trump is a Russian?
    I was actually waiting for McMaster to say the tapes prove what he is saying is true!

  34. G’day all,

    I thought you bludgers might like to know that a rather historic event will be taking place in Alice Springs next week. That is the first joint cabinet meeting between two state or territory governments.

    Members of the South Australian and Northern Territory Cabinets will meet to discuss tourism, transport and freight, and administrative issues for Aboriginal lands. A partnership agreement will be signed at the commencement also.

    Although this was initiated during the Giles years it did not included all cabinet members. I think Michael Gunner and Jay Weatherill should be congratulated on their efforts for pursuing this.

  35. antonbruckner11 @ #654 Tuesday, May 16, 2017 at 8:13 am

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/may/16/rod-culleton-told-to-repay-senate-salary-and-entitlements
    Yuv gotta laugh. Rod will say: join the queue.

    Why should he have to repay his wages and allowances?

    He was sworn in as a Senator.

    He performed his duties as a Senator.

    His vote was valid in the Senate.

    I don’t like the guy but for the time he was recognised as a Senator of the Australian Parliament he should be paid.

  36. Another departee punches his ticket.
    Sen Corker saying Trump WH is in a “downward spiral” is one of the toughest comments yet by any Republican on the hill.

  39. alexburnsNYT: “We have no way to know what was said” is an awfully confident statement given that WH won’t say definitively if the Oval is being taped twitter.com/scottwongDC/st…

    blakehounshell: There is literally a transcript twitter.com/alexburnsnyt/s…

  41. Per @TreyYingst, Bannon, Mike Dubke, Sarah Sanders and Spicer walked into cabinet room just now. They did not look happy.

    WH comms staffers just put the TVs on super loud after we could hear yelling coming from room w/ Bannon, Spicer, Sanders

  42. Greensborough Growler
    I was actually waiting for McMaster to say the tapes prove what he is saying is true!

    *****************************************

    Broadsword_Six‏ @Broadsword_Six

    On top of telling the Russian state secrets DONT FORGET there was a TASS press crew with audi-viz equiptment in the room. SAD. DISASTER.

    Bonnie‏ @_Ms_J · 30m30 minutes ago
    Replying to @Broadsword_Six

    Which means it is possible that the intel method & persons involved were recorded, parsed, disseminated, and compromised.

    Broadsword_Six‏ @Broadsword_Six · 29m29 minutes ago
    KA-CHING

  43. These tweets I was referring to earlier

    Claude Taylor @TrueFactsStated
    Replying to @TrueFactsStated
    3. has signed off on the tactical & logistical plan to take numerous subjects into custody”. That’s it. Word for word.

    1,072

    2,658

    1h
    Claude Taylor @TrueFactsStated
    Replying to @TrueFactsStated
    2. In order to avoid any possible misinterpretation, I’m going to give exact word for word quote of what I was told. “Rumor has it the AUSA

    937

    1,954

    1h
    Claude Taylor @TrueFactsStated
    1. Followers know I’ve tried to avoid an exact timeline as to when to expect arrests. I’m now receiving word that it may be soon. Here’s why

  44. ctar1 @ #723 Tuesday, May 16, 2017 at 9:21 am

    GG

    Do you reckon if Trump was a contestant on “The Apprentice’ he would have been fired by now?

    Turnbull certainly would have.

    If the other contestants were the federal Liberal and National Party members of Parliament, then I don’t think so. 🙂

  45. ABC News on-line has this up (16 articles down the list …) –

    Are you all set for the wages boom? Looking forward to your annual pay rise doubling or thereabouts and your overall package rising by even more?

    Woohoo! Happy days, if it’s true.

    The rosy forecast comes from no less reliable a source than those esteemed economic boffins in the Treasury Department. It’s there in black and white in the Commonwealth budget.

    So, should we bank on fatter pay packets (or the digital equivalent thereof)?

    The short answer is no.

    Excuse me for being cynical, but pigs might fly before Australia sees the kind of wage wins and salary surges that Treasurer Scott “ScoMo” Morrison’s forecasts are based upon.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/story-streams/federal-budget-2017/2017-05-16/federal-budget-2017-wages-forecasts-not-likely/8528540

  46. Shaun Carney, crusty conservative aristocrat to the end, amazingly has something nice-ish to say about Bill Shorten, not-so-amazingly in a back-handed sort of way:

    The time has now passed for the government to embark on any structural reform. From here on, it’s engaged in survival and hand-to-hand combat, doing whatever is necessary to stay on its feet under Turnbull’s leadership.

    AS for Shorten, the fact is that, unlikeable or not, he’s done a fair job of restoring the Labor Party after its disastrous time in office. And he’s done it with policy, not charm and charisma.

    Many in the gallery last week dismissed him as irrelevant because the government had stolen his policy clothes. That’s a very insider-ish view. It could just as easily be argued that the government had confirmed his relevance.

    Shorten has led the ALP for three years and seven months. That means he’s already held the job for longer than Julia Gillard, Simon Crean and Mark Latham (remember him?). In another couple of months, he’ll overtake Kevin Rudd and if he’s still leader by next February, he’ll have been Labor leader longer than Paul Keating.

    But, predictably Carney ruins this with leadershit. They just can help themselves, can they?

    But will he last to the next election, due probably in September next year? Shorten needs to keep those high voting intention numbers. The minute they slip, Anthony Albanese, whom he defeated in a leadership ballot in 2013, will be ready to pounce.

    [… and so on, for the last few hundred words of the article]

    Ho hum… nevertheless, Carney has taken a position apart from the “insider-ish” crowd. Perhaps since he got booted from The Age his head’s started to clear? Perhaps it’s just because he’s working for Rupert now (and we all know Rupert’s official line on Turnbull)? Perhaps – just perhaps – Shaun is sounding a warning: the hare might be getting all the attention, but the tortise is still plugging away, plodding towards the finishing line.

    Reachtel variously 53 and 54. Ipsos 53. Newspoll 53. And now today Essential 54. Fraught with capacity for error as they may be, surely all these polls can’t be wrong? Personal preference metrics, the popularity of individual Budget policies, focus groups, ScoMo’s blathering, the Press Gallery seemingly collectively wishing upon a star notwithstanding, a 2PP position at around 53 or 54 is the only number that any politician will really take note of, and is the kind of indicator they’d cut off an arm to possess. 2PP is the whole chicken. Policy approval statistics are just the entrails. No, spin the Budget and its polling as they might try, the Opionistas don’t seem to be able to budge Boring Old Bill out of the box seat, not with all their huffing and puffing about resets and reboots.

    There’s still a long way to go, of course. There’s leadershit, for one thing, but I think Albo’s time for back-stabbing has passed. It’s Shorten who’s united the Labor Party, and critically kept it united, not Anthony Albanese. Shorten has earned his shot at the title. And there’s that new pesky Labor constitutional thing which prevents knee-jerk caucus challenges, announced in the morning and brought on after lunch. Gallery scribblers conveniently forget that, repeatedly, in their hankering for the old days of barroom brawls in the party room. Sure, we can expect Bill’s past union connections to come back to haunt him too, with or without old has-been Dyson Heydon’s bony, wagging finger. But as Carney reminds us, Malcolm Turnbull has given up ranting about debt and deficit, and has adopted Labor-style policies in order to save his skin. It seems imitation IS the sincerest form of flattery, after all.

    Carney says that comparing Turnbull with Shorten is like arguing about whether Coke Life or New Coke taste better. But there’s a better analogy: it’s becoming increasingly apparent that Bill Shorten has become the Real Thing, and Turnbull is just… a fizza.

    (Google trick required:

    shaun-carney-bill-shorten-steady-under-pressure-with-labor-figures-strong/news-story/404f701c16b7be181d14405be75f83f4 )

  47. This is the most perceptive comment from a conservative member of the CPG

    Many in the gallery last week dismissed him (Shorten) as irrelevant because the government had stolen his policy clothes. That’s a very insider-ish view. It could just as easily be argued that the government had confirmed his relevance.

  48. shiftaling @ #737 Tuesday, May 16, 2017 at 9:42 am

    Barney I thought he was ruled to have been ineligible to run for Senate, be sworn in etc

    Yes, but he still legally performed his duties as a Senator until he was declared invalid.

    Using the logic of him having to repay the money, all his votes in the Senate should be declared invalid.

    They have not done this and they won’t because at the time he was a Senator.

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