Newspoll and Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor

Two more pollsters add to an impression of little immediate change on voting intention in the wake of last week’s budget.

Two more sets of post-voting intention budget numbers, though nothing yet on their regular questions on response to the budget:

• Newspoll moves slightly in favour of Labor, who now lead 53-47 after dropping back to 52-48 in the previous poll three weeks ago. Both parties are on 36% of the primary vote, with the Coalition steady and Labor up a point, with the Greens up one to 10% and One Nation down one to 9%. The report states that Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval has improved from minus 25% to minus 20%, while Bill Shorten’s is down from minus 22% to minus 20%, although approval and disapproval ratings are not provided. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 42-33 to 44-31. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1716.

• The post-budget Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers, conducted Wednesday to Thursday from a sample of 1401, has Labor leading 53-47, down from 55-45 in the previous poll in late March. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up four to 37%, Labor down one to 35%, and the Greens down three from a hard-to-credit result last time to record 13%. Both leaders have improved substantially on person ratings, with Malcolm Turnbull up five on approval to 45% and down four to 44% – the first net positive result we’ve seen for either leader in a long time – and Bill Shorten up seven to 42% and down six to 47%. The preferred prime minister shifts from 45-33 to 47-35. Newspoll hopefully to follow.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,160 comments on “Newspoll and Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Barney it’s a good point about the votes. I have been wondering about the constitutional basis of that particular quirk

  2. Vic

    3. has signed off on the tactical & logistical plan to take numerous subjects into custody”. That’s it. Word for word.

    1,072

    2,658

    1h
    Claude Taylor @TrueFactsStated
    Replying to @TrueFactsStated
    2. In order to avoid any possible misinterpretation, I’m going to give exact word for word quote of what I was told. “Rumor has it the AUSA

    What or who is the ‘AUSA’?

  4. SykesCharlie: This story is ultimately verifiable or falsifiable. There is a full transcript. Congress should demand it.

  6. Timothy Nafthali is an historian who used to direct the Nixon Presidential Library. He has studied with a depth that few could match the documents of the Nixon presidency. Here are some of this thoughts about what it means to be Nixonian:

    There’s a darkness to Nixon that most people don’t know about. A lot of people just think of Nixon as the man who messed up this cover-up and lied about it, but they don’t really know the dark, dark activities of the Nixon administration. And trust me, they’re incredibly dark.

    There’s a conversation, it was very influential for me when I heard it and it’s available to the public now, of Nixon and Haldeman. Haldeman is telling Nixon that the administration had hired goons to go out and hit protestors, and break their legs, and really hurt them, and Nixon is saying, “Great. Oh, that’s so wonderful. That’s good.”

    I didn’t fully appreciate the depravity at the center of Nixon’s administration. Now, if we discover that Trump is doing the same, well then, we’re in another similarly dark period. We may be in a troubling period, but it may be for different reasons.

    So this is what I mean when I say the public doesn’t fully understand the darkness of the Nixon administration. People are quick to make the Trump-Nixon comparison when Trump hasn’t yet reached the level of darkness of the Nixon administration. Look, it’s entirely possible that we’ll get there, but not yet.

    Trump can do bad things without actually repeating those kinds of abuses. There are other bad things he could do, but in order to be fully Nixon, or fully Nixonian, he would have to use his power to really hurt his enemies. Not to beat them politically, because that’s what all politicians do. I mean actually hurt them, financially and physically. That would be Nixonian, because that’s what Nixon tried to do.

    If we find that Trump is ordering investigations of people, is leaking stuff to engage in character assassination, is actually hiring people to break the bones of people who are against him, then he’s Nixon. But I don’t see that evidence yet.

    https://www.vox.com/2017/5/13/15610188/james-comey-donald-trump-richard-nixon-fbi-watergate

  9. DanielGarb: The sad Jesse Hogan news is a reminder to young males to get checked. The @Dylantombides foundation exists for this purpose. Check them out.

  12. CTar1

    What or who is the ‘AUSA’?

    ****************************************

    Maybe ??? – Assistant United States Attorney – United States Attorneys (also known as chief federal prosecutors and, historically, as United States District Attorneys) represent the United States federal government in United States district court and United States court of appeals.

  14. An Assistant U.S. Attorney (AUSA), or federal prosecutor, is a public official who represents the federal government on behalf of the U.S. Attorney (USA) in criminal prosecutions. In carrying out their duties, AUSAs have the authority to investigate persons, issue subpoenas, file formal criminal charges, plea bargain with defendants, and grant immunity to witnesses and accused criminals.

  15. National Australia Bank chairman Ken Henry has demanded a full public inquiry into the federal government’s $6.2 billion bank levy

    ………………………………..
    O the irony. The dripping irony.

    The author of the Minerals Tax, which has been said said amounted to Nationalisation of the mining industry. now changes his tune and in large.

    Its now its “Whose bread I eat – whose song I sing”.

    Pity Tingle never mentioned such in her article ?

    http://www.afr.com/news/ken-henry-slams-bank-tax-budget-strategy-20170515-gw59nh

    Henry could of course roll up his sleeves and stand as a candidate for election – to show how it all should be done ??

  17. Barney – yes, the remuneration of Cullerton raises lots of interesting legal issues (High Court Appeal stuff!) Even if he was not contractually entitled to the money (because he was never a senator) he would be entitled to restitution for the time and labour he committed to the task (such as it was) which might be the same as his salary. The govt really should not waste its money.
    I once read about a chap who, during the 18th century, turned up to the House of Commons and voted for 20 years with no right to do so before someone cottoned on.

  19. antonbruckner11 @ #767 Tuesday, May 16, 2017 at 10:21 am

    Barney – yes, the remuneration of Cullerton raises lots of interesting legal issues (High Court Appeal stuff!) Even if he was not contractually entitled to the money (because he was never a senator) he would be entitled to restitution for the time and labour he committed to the task (such as it was) which might be the same as his salary. The govt really should not waste its money.
    I once read about a chap who, during the 18th century, turned up to the House of Commons and voted for 20 years with no right to do so before someone cottoned on.

    The High Court did not rule that he was not a Senator.

    It ruled that he was not entitled to be a Senator.

    In the period between being sworn in and the High Court ruling he was a Senator.
    Slight muddying of the waters with the bankruptcy issue.

  20. It’s a $420 billion question: who will be hit by Chevron’s failed tax appeal? The answer is, almost everybody.

    The draft guidelines that the ATO released on Tuesday will rewrite the way that foreign investors structure their Australian operations.

    Foreign multinationals currently have $420 billion in loans to their Australian subsidiaries, and they charge the local arms $20 billion a year interest on these loans, which becomes an immediate tax deduction.

    That’s an interest rate of just under 5 per cent, while the ATO seems to be saying an arms-length rate would usually be below 3 per cent. That suggests the ATO will be looking to cut some $6-8 billion from interest deductions.

    It never works out quite as neatly as that, but Deputy Commissioner Jeremy Hirschhorn confirmed the ATO was expecting to raise hundreds of millions of dollars in extra tax from the new approach.

    http://www.afr.com/news/policy/tax/after-chevron-the-420-billion-ato-question-20170515-gw561r

  21. @Dave

    Ignorant attitude.

    Expecting other to join politics when there is already enough shit in the system.

    Henry was an advisor to Labor Government.

    A Bank Tax will most certainly be passed down to consumers.
    Just as the recent Netflix Tax, they recently increased the prices for Netflix.

    Then we have Broadband Tax for what? To fix up their mistakes?

    There is so many flaws in your argument about ‘why don’t you be a candidate in blah blah blah’….

    ffs!

  22. “could persuade ISIS to speed up any terror plot”
    The thing that will hurt out of this alleged Trump disclosure at ground level and could be an immediate consequence will be if the place / city the intelligence was obtained from is disclosed. If ISIS control that place, or are still active, then they could go feral and start killing people they think MAY have been involved regardless of whether they actually were. Its not like they are into rule of law or anything like that.

    Fwark……Trump seems to have no idea of when to just keep it shut and someone in his position needs to know that. Maybe he hasn’t, technically broken the law, but he is certainly proving himself unsuitable for office.

  24. phoenixRED @ #714 Tuesday, May 16th, 2017 – 9:14 am

    Putin must be pissing himself ……………… true or not ….. he has thrown America and its government into total chaos and instability ……

    Overstated. There’s such an easy fix available, all Congress needs is for about half of its GOP members to find their backbones. Then Trump is gone and problem solved.

  25. “Overstated. There’s such an easy fix available, all Congress needs is for about half of its GOP members to find their backbones. Then Trump is gone and problem solved.”

    Hardly, if his replacement is Pence.

  26. After Anderson Cooper ends (Watching Cooper now) Nancy Pelosi is doing a Town Hall on CNN.

    If you have access should be fun.

  29. I started to write a serious post on the possibility of an Albanese challenge and realised how ridiculous the concept is. If anything, Shorten has strengthened his hold on the parliamentary party room, and virtually every branch member I’ve heard comment on the leadership in the last three years has said that they were Albanese supporters but are now firmly in the Shorten camp.

    That the CPG don’t seem to understand this is just another indication of how out of touch they are.

  31. What a shame they got rid of the original idea where the Vice President was the losing candidate.

    Hillary would be next in line. 🙂

  33. What a shame they got rid of the original idea where the Vice President was the losing candidate.

    Wow that was certainly a recipe for a mad ‘opposition’ supporter to assassinate the Pres. Good thing is was scrapped.

  34. Good lord, we’re back to the “X did this, Trump hasn’t done this, therefore we shouldn’t compare Trump to X” .

    It’s a fatuous argument. On that basis, no one can ever be compared to Hitler unless they’ve killed 6 million Jews.

    Does Trump have fascist tendencies? is not a question best answered by looking at other fascist leaders and deciding whether he is the ‘same’ as they are. It is best answered by looking at his own actions and seeing whether they fit into the definition of fascism.

    Is Trump acting like Nixon? is not best answered by directly comparing acts of Nixon with acts of Trump (history never repeats itself exactly; you are always going to find things that Nixon did that Trump hasn’t and vice versa) but by looking at whether Nixon and Trump display similar attitudes to the rule of law, government conventions, and the like.

  35. On Albo challenging Shorten.

    Really dont think it will happen unless something REAL goes totally pear shaped for Shorten. Seems to me that Albo is primarily a team player. An important player with his own views and a willingness to express and back those views.

    However, a team player who is NOT going to stuff things up at short notice for personal ambition. I suspect he would rather be influential IN govt rather than LOTO and the path to that is backing Shorten who is demonstrably doing well as LOTO.

  36. tom hawkins @ #783 Tuesday, May 16, 2017 at 10:43 am

    What a shame they got rid of the original idea where the Vice President was the losing candidate.

    Wow that was certainly a recipe for a mad ‘opposition’ supporter to assassinate the Pres. Good thing is was scrapped.

    It’s reasoning was that it was supposed to create bipartisan support within the Administration.
    It didn’t last long. 🙂

  37. For those intereste,d Norton Utilities has put out a good description of the cyber attack and what it means.
    https://www.symantec.com/connect/blogs/what-you-need-know-about-wannacry-ransomware?pifcamid=16161_82457_0&product=Norton%20Internet%20Security&version=22.9.1.12&plang=sym:EN&layouttype=ESD&buildname=Retail&heartbeatID=5CE86FDC-F1F0-11E2-BE68-8C89A50A0B06&eapenabled=false&env=prod&vendorid=1000&plid=2&plgid=2&skup=20036229&skum=21356539&skuf=20032477&endpointid=5CE86FDC-F1F0-11E2-BE68-8C89A50A0B06&partnerid=1000&lic_type=16&lic_attr=17059858&psn=PXXHMTGJDWY8&puid=5039&osvers=10.0&oslocale=iso:AUS&oslang=iso:ENG&os=windows

  41. adrian @ #775 Tuesday, May 16th, 2017 – 10:33 am

    Hardly, if his replacement is Pence.

    I’ll happily take Pence if it means Trump is gone.

    Sure, he’s wrong (sometimes egregiously so) about a lot of things. But 1) he’s generally wrong “within normal parameters” and 2) he’s not Trump. Unless someone has a clone of a real WW2-era fascist idling around somewhere it’s very hard to pick someone worse than Trump for President.

  42. a r Tuesday, May 16, 2017 at 10:30 am
    phoenixRED @ #714 Tuesday, May 16th, 2017 – 9:14 am
    “Putin must be pissing himself ……………… true or not ….. he has thrown America and its government into total chaos and instability ……”

    Overstated. There’s such an easy fix available, all Congress needs is for about half of its GOP members to find their backbones. Then Trump is gone and problem solved.

    ********************************************
    Sorry A R – I totally disagree …. I stand by my claim that Putin will be most pleased with what is going on in the US :

    From Washington Post :

    Political chaos in Washington is a return on investment for Moscow

    Russia has yet to collect much of what it hoped for from the Trump administration, including the lifting of U.S. sanctions and recognition of its annexation of Crimea.
    But the Kremlin has collected a different return on its effort to help elect Trump in last year’s election: chaos in Washington.

    In a declassified report released this year, U.S. spy agencies described destabilization as one of Russian President Vladi­mir Putin’s objectives.

    “The Kremlin sought to advance its longstanding desire to undermine the U.S.-led liberal democratic order,” it said.
    James R. Clapper Jr., the former director of national intelligence, offered a similar assessment
    “The Russians have to be celebrating the success of . . . what they set out do with rather minimal resource expenditure,” Clapper said. “The first objective was to sow discord and dissension, which they certainly did.”

    MUST See Graphic :
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/national/trump-russia/

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/political-chaos-in-washington-is-a-return-on-investment-for-moscow/2017/05/14/2b4aa842-3653-11e7-b412-62beef8121f7_story.html?utm_term=.f4a514bf92ae

  43. Boerwar
    Tuesday, May 16, 2017 at 10:13 am
    Nicholas
    Good post on Nixon/Trump.

    Yes, good post, but I always saw Nixon as a shrewd calculating type, a backroom schemer.

    Trump is a buffoon. The Steven Fry vid (sorry can’t be stuffed finding the link) pointed out the long known psychological propensity of stupid people to overestimate their ability. That is Trump to a tee (and Hanson types BTW).

    Trump is not orchestrating his behaviour in some kind of grand Machiavellian plan. It all looks stupid because it is.

  46. If Trump gets the heave ho it won’t be to Dems advantage in the mid terms.
    The last thing they need is a politically competent conservative shit for brains like Pence or Hatch replacing a politically incompetent shit for brains like Trump.

  47. Screaming overheard in Cabinet Room meeting between Spicer, Bannon and Sanders after Russia intel revelation

    Reporters at the White House on Monday overheard yelling between White House press secretary Sean Spicer, chief White House counsel Steve Bannon, deputy White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders and White House Communications Director Michale Dubke, prompting staffers to turn up TV’s to drown out the back-and-forth.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/05/screaming-overheard-in-cabinet-room-meeting-between-spicer-bannon-and-sanders-after-russia-intel-revelation/

  48. Remember, part of Putin’s objective is to blur the idea that there are any differences between Russia and America, at least in the minds of his own population.

    If the yearning masses longing to be free can’t see any viable alternatives, they’ll just keep yearning. If they see societies which offer their citizens something different to what they’ve got, they’ll take action.

    The more Putin can portray America as being ‘just like us’ the stronger his hold on power.

  49. Clive should join Actors Equity:

    A dishevelled-looking Clive Palmer has compared the probe into the collapse of Queensland Nickel to Nazi Germany as he arrived at a Brisbane court to face another round of grilling.

    The businessman arrived at the Federal Court on Tuesday clutching a sick bag and complaining of pain.

    An unnamed minder read out a statement on Mr Palmer’s behalf, claiming he was being forced to testify despite his condition as payback for instituting a Senate inquiry into the Newman government while he was an MP.

    “Surgery and intensive care, pain and duress, and currently on morphine, all confirmed by the court, regardless I’m dragged into the court today,” he said.

    “This would only happen in Nazi Germany.”

    http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/palmer-to-face-further-grilling-over-qn/news-story/e59489e37ab37a9c20e413583be9d4bc

  50. The reverse Trump Coalition tax plan.
    If anyway needs ammunition to counter the trickle downers, this is it. Who would ever have guessed that putting more money into the hands of the poor and middle classes would stimulate the economy?

    High taxes, strong unions and an equal distribution of wealth.

    That’s the recipe for success in a globalized world, according to Magdalena Andersson, the Social Democratic economist who’s also Sweden’s finance minister.

    The 50-year-old has been raising taxes and spending more on welfare since winning power in 2014. She’s also overseen an economic boom, with Swedish growth rates topping 4 percent early last year, that has turned budget deficits into surpluses,

    https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-05-07/a-reverse-trump-tax-plan-delivers-an-economic-miracle-in-sweden

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