BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor

Another week of stasis in the polls results in another stable reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

This week’s results from Newspoll and Essential Research have resulted in very slight movement to the Coalition on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate’s two-party preferred reading, although Labor makes a net gain on the seat projection as gains in Western Australia and South Australia balance out a loss in Queensland. The new leadership numbers from Newspoll see the preferred prime minister rating maintain its condition of dead calm since the election, and both leaders’ net approval ratings continue their slow downward trend.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

721 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor”

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  2. Simon Aussie Katich

    even from millenia ago –
    seems to still mean a hell of lot to some of them.

    I first came across Robert Fisk when he was reporting on the war in Yugoslavia. He made a comment that stuck in my mind. In giving a background to past conflicts and divisions in one region re christian and muslims he recounted some major war/battle from 500 years ago that caused a major upheaval. He added that rather than ancient history it was considered by the locals as “current affairs” .

  3. SK

    I am also pretty sure the crusaders did a fair share of their rape and pillage in the balkans.

    The Crusaders from western Europe theoretically were there to assist their Orthodox Christian ‘friends’ against the Turks. To put them in context imagine a very large bunch of soccer hooligans who stayed too long.

    The history of the eastern Roman Empire is fascinating reading and, as you say, grudges around the ‘fall’ of Constantinople (1453) still resonate through the years in the current nearby countries

  5. When they conquered Jerusalem the Crusaders went on the Mother of all Mass Slaughter Sprees.
    They were recorded as being ankle deep in blood – not figuratively but literally.
    Not one of christianity’s finer moments.

  7. Boerwar
    One of the Monty Python chaps did a serious series on the Crusades and during one episode recounted a story about them surrounding some town that they thought was muslim and demanded surrender. Surrender not forthcoming it was rape , pillage and slaughter in the traditional xtian manner. Shame it was actually an xtian town and spoke some obscure language.

  9. Azzam el Sheikh has been on Manus for nearly four years, after attempting to reach Australia by boat in 2013. He recently received a negative determination on his refugee application, and was marked for deportation. Police have tried to remove him from the island twice, once in late March and again in early April, but Azzam resisted and was injured. He has been told that he will soon be deported for good, likely within the next day.

    He was taken to a local police station, and has remained there since, claiming to have suffered injuries to his neck, back and hands. He also claimed he had been denied medical attention, and not even given a painkiller.

    It was in the police station he filmed a video, where he addresses Prime Minister Turnbull personally, asking for assistance. The video is shot in what appears to be a filthy prison cell, with stained walls and a disgusting toilet.
    …
    Azzam said he feared being sent back to Lebanon.

    “I’m not waiting here four years because I like the rice,” he said.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/04/26/injured-manus-asylum-seeker-to-be-deported-despite-medical-conce_a_22056055/

  10. SK

    The Serbian ‘connection’- From the Wiki entry on Belgrade:

    It was settled by the Slavs in the 520s, and changed hands several times between the Byzantine Empire, Frankish Empire, Bulgarian Empire and Kingdom of Hungary before it became the capital of Serbian king Stephen Dragutin (1282–1316). In 1521, Belgrade was conquered by the Ottoman Empire and became the seat of the Sanjak of Smederevo. It frequently passed from Ottoman to Habsburg rule, which saw the destruction of most of the city during the Austro-Ottoman wars.

  11. How is Palaszczuk’s observations about Turnbull’s prime ministership bitter and personal? Not one thing she said about his leadership, outside the comment that he is a worse PM than Abbott, is false. And her comparison with Abbott is based on her experiences dealing with them as PMs to her Premier.

  12. lizzie @ #550 Sunday, April 30, 2017 at 12:57 pm

    The Kouk reminding us that smartypants Morrison is just playing naming games to gain attention for his Budget.

    Stephen Koukoulas‏Verified account @TheKouk · 3h3 hours ago
    By the way, the budget papers have ALWAYS published split of recurrent/capital expenditure. Morrison bringing table to the front #insiders

    That is exactly what I thought and commented on a day or so ago while admitting it was some time since I had dug through budget papers.
    Morrison suddenly hyperventilating about it proves nothing other than his own ignorance and stupidity.

  13. Booleanbach

    Whither the US & Russia in Syria & Yemen?

    Aden is a very useful port to have. Ask the Poms – They hung on to it for around 130 yrs until 1967.

  14. ‘fess

    Are the Palaszczuk comments on Turnbull’s character recent or is it just the Courier Mail publishing this now because she is meeting with Mighty Mal tomorrow?

  15. I’m Currently reading s book about Christians in 1000BC+ and witch hunting.

    The book is called ‘The Witch Hunts’,

    Christians and Churh are very bad to this day!

  16. The Fourth Crusade ended in the sacking of Constantinople in 1204, and effectively caused the end of the Byzantine empire – it was all downhill from there – and was definitely Christian on Christian in nature (even though the Fourth Crusade was originally supposed to be attacking Egypt and retaking Jerusalem).

    And some of the key reasons for the attack on Constantinople came from the Venetians who (a) didn’t want to attack Egypt as they had a healthy trading relationship with them, but (b) did want to depose Constantinople as being a major trading hub and competition for Venice, and (c) needed to recoup the expense of building their fleet when insufficient crusaders showed up and couldn’t pay the full amount.

    A tragic, tawdry affair, full of the usual religion-as-politics and war-to-gain-commercial-advantage crapola.

  19. confessions @ #611 Sunday, April 30, 2017 at 4:56 pm

    How is Palaszczuk’s observations about Turnbull’s prime ministership bitter and personal? Not one thing she said about his leadership, outside the comment that he is a worse PM than Abbott, is false. And her comparison with Abbott is based on her experiences dealing with them as PMs to her Premier.

    Yes, she gives a reason for everything she says while Turnbull in his response fails to address her concerns.

  20. bemused @ #612 Sunday, April 30, 2017 at 4:58 pm

    lizzie @ #550 Sunday, April 30, 2017 at 12:57 pm

    The Kouk reminding us that smartypants Morrison is just playing naming games to gain attention for his Budget.

    Stephen Koukoulas‏Verified account @TheKouk · 3h3 hours ago
    By the way, the budget papers have ALWAYS published split of recurrent/capital expenditure. Morrison bringing table to the front #insiders

    That is exactly what I thought and commented on a day or so ago while admitting it was some time since I had dug through budget papers.
    Morrison suddenly hyperventilating about it proves nothing other than his own ignorance and stupidity.

    Grog makes a similar point in this article on the Guardian site.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/apr/30/morrisons-good-debt-bad-debt-story-makes-sense-but-beware-the-twist

  21. CTar,

    The statements by The Queensland premier were reported firstly in the Sunday Mail here in Brisbane this morning. She then doubled up later today in a presser.

    She is absolutely correct of course in her character assessment of Turnbull but with a state election in the pipeline by early next year the optics of a battle with the federal government and standing up for Queenslanders does not hurt.

    The response by Turnbull once again shows his lack of political nous. He should have simply made no comment or just brushed it off but he sent Dutton out first and then had his own rant in a press statement this afternoon. Fuel to the fire.

    Cheers.

  22. Some LNP defend Abbott’s right to have an opinion and say it publicly.
    I don’t think we’d be so irritated with him if we thought he was worth listening to. A wide elder statesman can be of benefit to a country. But a hopeless ex-PM still peddling the same negative policies? Not so much.

  26. Bw

    When they conquered Jerusalem the Crusaders went on the Mother of all Mass Slaughter Sprees.

    When Allenby entered Jerusalem in WW1 was the first time Christians had controlled the city for centuries. He was smart about – he entered on foot via the Jaffa Gate and immediately made sure the population understood they weren’t there to pillage the place by putting guards around the religious ‘spots’ of all 3 predominant religions.

  30. Witch hunts have degenerated into tawdry Trolls waging mindless Troll Storms against their online victims du jour – generally under the spiritual leadership as such luminaries of Western Civilization as Joyce, Bishop, Abbott and Turnbull.
    Witch hunts were much better fun when you went round and caught some possible real witches and put them to the various real world tests. I assume that early witch hunters and witch testers were proto rabid right wingers:
    http://www.history.com/news/history-lists/7-bizarre-witch-trial-tests

  32. Bw

    Allenby – one of WWI’s better generals.

    He certainly got the best publicity. He and Haig were totally at odds. Lloyd George decided it was best to separate them so Haig got continental Europe ans Allenby got the Middle East – by far the better end of the deal where he could make ‘dashing’ maneuvers on horseback over large distances while Haig’s lot were stuck in mud in the trenches.

  33. The irony is not lost on me that on the day Abbott was reported to be scheduled to give an ‘enlightenment speech’ to WA Liberal party, PB offering up pre-Enlightenment era fodder such as witch trials, the crusades and books about life in 1000AD.

  34. I’m no fan of “Sixty Minutes” but tonight they are doing a piece on the KKK and other white hate groups in the US. Apparently these characters have been emboldened by Trump’s rise to power. Without prompting from the TV crew, some also mentioned Hanson as a person they admire.

    THE Ku Klux Klan, hate groups and hate crimes, are back on the rise. Riding the wave of the politics of hate.

    They’re popping their robes back on, emboldened to broadcast their white supremacist message like never before.

    And they’re using Donald Trump and Pauline Hanson, whether those politicians like it or not.

    That’s what Liz Hayes discovered as she went deep intro the heart of the hate groups in the US for a report airing on 60 Minutes on Sunday.

    Hayes was prepared for the ravings of those who feel free to speak out on the back of the elevation of Donald Trump to US President.

    What she wasn’t prepared for was to find an Australian politician on their radar: Pauline Hanson.

    http://www.news.com.au/entertainment/tv/current-affairs/great-for-the-white-race-kkk-rises-on-trumps-politics-of-hate/news-story/ebabe613fe1945de4eb0fe76824df936

  36. confessions @ #633 Sunday, April 30, 2017 at 5:50 pm

    The irony is not lost on me that on the day Abbott was reported to be scheduled to give an ‘enlightenment speech’ to WA Liberal party, PB offering up pre-Enlightenment era fodder such as witch trials, the crusades and books about life in 1000AD.

    The current discussion is sourced from that very speech you mention. 🙂

  37. Shorten might say the same thing about Turnbull after the latter’s personal attacks on him:

    Annastacia Palaszczuk’s extraordinary attack on Malcolm Turnbull – labelling him an arrogant, shallow thinker who doesn’t understand his job – has been rejected by the prime minister as a “bitter, personal and wildly inaccurate attack”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/apr/30/malcolm-turnbull-hits-back-at-palaszczuk-after-bitter-personal-attack#img-1

  41. The Government’s tongue-lashing of Westpac – slavishly echoed as usual by the Murdochcracy – lays bare the fundamental hypocrisy of Australian neoliberalism for all the world to see.
    Having spent decades arguing that people in poverty needed to be further stigmatised, that public services (healthcare, education, infrastructure etc.) needed to be cut to the bone and/or privatised, that Government Is Bad and the Market Is God, what are they doing now?
    After finding out that no private-sector bank will touch an economically non-viable coalmine, they’re lashing out at it for being “anti-Australian” and saying they’ll use public money to back it instead!
    So much for their erstwhile worship of the gilded (solid gold’s way, WAY too expensive!) calf that is Free Market Fundamentalism.

  44. PhoenixRed

    Catching up on earlier posts. I am far from Twitter expert. I don’t even have a Twitter account. Lol! But I do my best to sus out those who may have some real knowledge of what is going on. Fingers crossed, the treasonous traitors will be dealt with sooner than later, before too much damage is done to us all!!

  45. The adults are back in charge over here.

    An easier commute is on track for residents in Perth’s north-east, with plans for a new dual carriageway.

    WA Premier Mark McGowan outlined plans for ‘New Lord street’ on Sunday, a seven kilometre dual carriageway to be built parallel to the existing Lord street in Ellenbrook.

    However Mr McGowan has cancelled the new bus lane to the suburb, saying an Ellenbrook rail line included in his government’s Metronet rail project made it redundant.

    ‘Part of the proceeds from cancelling the transit system will go towards preserving the land for the railway and towards some other bus infrastructure,’ he told reporters on Sunday.

    He said major communications infrastructure would be moved from the middle of Ellenbrook, to make way for a railway station.

    The Labor government has flagged the new road and moving the communications mast for completion by mid-2018 at a cost of $57 million.

    – See more at: http://www.skynews.com.au/news/politics/state/2017/04/30/mcgowan-outlines-perth-public-transport-plan.html#sthash.VS14P6Bl.dpuf

  48. Trump or LNP, it doesn’t matter, what does matter is history is being burned, just like nazi book burning:

    https://www.engadget.com/2017/04/29/epa-pulls-climate-science-web-pages/

    “The Washington Post notes that the EPA has pulled a nearly 20-year-old page explaining the fundamentals of climate change and how it affects the US. While updates to the site were frozen and closely scrutinized under President George W. Bush’s administration, his White House was still content to leave the page running — clearly, even that was too much under the new presidency.”.

  49. Apparently Turnbull posted a Queensland only post. He probably used facebook feature to target only Queenslanders.

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