BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor

Another week of stasis in the polls results in another stable reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

This week’s results from Newspoll and Essential Research have resulted in very slight movement to the Coalition on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate’s two-party preferred reading, although Labor makes a net gain on the seat projection as gains in Western Australia and South Australia balance out a loss in Queensland. The new leadership numbers from Newspoll see the preferred prime minister rating maintain its condition of dead calm since the election, and both leaders’ net approval ratings continue their slow downward trend.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

721 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor”

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  3. Dingbat The First

    Perhaps Clinton could try that line if she runs next time

    Yeah her “the deplorables” worked a treat :smile;

  4. Stephen Koukoulas‏Verified account @TheKouk · 2h2 hours ago

    Drought assistance to farmers doing it tough is funded with bad debt, according to Morrison. Barnaby will love that #insiders

  5. One of the endearing features of US politics is that when a new President is elected the people tend to unify and rally around the person regardless of political affiliations. Trump’s greatest failure to date is his inability to unite the people and govern for all.

  6. AshGhebranious‏ @AshGhebranious · 2h2 hours ago

    I hope the asylum seekers sue Dutton. His comments have probably ensured that these men do not get asylum in the USA #insiders #auspol

  8. function unicodeEscape (str) {
        return str.replace(/[\s\S]/g, function(character, index) {
            if (character.charCodeAt() <= 255) {
                return character;
            }

            var code = character.charCodeAt(0);
            if (0xD800 <= code && code <= 0xDBFF) {
             // Upper auxiliary char
             var hi = code;
             var low = str.charCodeAt(index + 1);

             code = ((hi – 0xD800) * 0x400) + (low – 0xDC00) + 0x10000;
            }
            if (0xDC00 <= code && code <= 0xDFFF) {
                 // Lower auxiliary symbol, should have already been handled
             return "";
            }

            return '&#' + code + ';';
        });
    }

  10. ctar1 @ #494 Sunday, April 30, 2017 at 11:13 am

    I generally agree with this but I was drawing no conclusions about the use of coal in India.

    What I was ‘concluding’ is that export of coal from Australia to India is in decline and that Adani’s proposed mine looks like a ‘dead duck’.

    Yes, I agree with those saying that the desperation around Adani is because if it does not proceed soon, it will never proceed.

  13. “Yeah her “the deplorables” worked a treat :smile;”

    More broadly I believe the denigration of blue-collar conservatives by progressives is a net minus in terms of attracting voters to your cause, including in Australia.

  14. Butler did well on Insiders, most likely he had prepared points and arguments, however the opening question by Cassidy he let go through to the keeper, the question was wtte
    ‘What do you think of the Westpac decision on Adani given the large number of jobs involved ‘.
    Given the proposed mine will be in Australia a high wage country i expect it will be automated as much as possible.
    Examples are driverless trucks and trains. Monitoring will be done from a remote centralized location. There will be a number of jobs for technicians and mechanics to service the equipment, but I don’t think many actual miners.
    Depending on the scope of a figure, I think the numbers like 1,500 jobs are upper limits not lower ones.
    Butler and Labor are most likely aware of this but I guess they want to focus on the financial viability than the arguable job figure.

  16. JR, and then launch into an attack on the amount of jobs destroyed by the Liberal Party’s attacks on the renewable energy industry and these jobs will be around a lot longer and don’t require us to give a billion dollars to Adani.

  18. JR

    The desperate voters going for Hanson and other populist movements are basically down to the combination of globalism and automation.

    Adani is a case in point. IF it got up having the profits go overseas with no taxes to take big bites out to support the local population is the problem with economics in OECD countries at the moment.

    The unskilled, the low educated, various other groups left out by the change to the work environment are desperate and are doing desperate things to try and change things. They thus fall for con jobs of the likes of Hanson because they want to believe doing things as they used to will mean a return to the income and security they used to know.

    I am glad Labor is tackling that on the economic side. Unlike major parties overseas our Labor party is listening to these voters. I personally believe Labor should do more. However I am content to wait until Labor is in government to do more.

    Seriously addressing that lack of jobs pool which includes underemployment is vital. Equity is what has made Australia Great. We don’t have the Oligarch model of inequality and I don’t think any Australians want to go to that model. We don’t want to be Russia. Or even the halfway stop of Trump’s and the GOP USA of blame the victim keep the rewards for the rich.

  19. “Let’s just advocate for the best way forward”

    The point being that people don’t agree on the best way forward. As you were.

  24. On Twitter, there was a pic of a half-empty stadium, with Trump doing his usual boasting about the greatest crowd ever. “There are many, many thousands waiting outside.”

    Even if it’s not true, it sounds so plausible.

  25. People’s Climate March Sends Thousands Marching in the Nation’s Capital

    It’s Saturday. Donald Trump is off golfing again and climate change protesters are filling the streets of the nation’s capital again.

    This is just one of hundreds of marches taking place today around the world demonstrating once again that Donald Trump does not represent the will of the people, who overwhelmingly accept the science he rejects and the devastating effects of climate change his policies will only exacerbate.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/04/29/peoples-climate-march-sends-thousands-marching-nations-capital.html

  26. Trump’s faulty trade math may not make America greater, or richer

    By U.S. President Donald Trump’s math, renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement and other deals will largely pay for the massive tax cuts his cabinet laid out earlier in the week. He is likely off by a factor of close to 10 – or more – according to trade and tax economists who say it does not make sense to think of the world in the two-dimensional, money-in-my-pocket or money-in-yours way that Trump did in a Thursday interview with Reuters.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/04/29/trumps-faulty-trade-math-america-greater-richer.html

  27. Empty seats at Pennsylvania rally give the lie to Trump’s claim of ‘record breaking’ crowd

    At his Harrisburg, PA rally on Saturday celebrating his first 100 days in office, President Donald Trump claimed that the crowd at the expo center was a record-breaker and that people were lined up outside to get in, but the building was too small.

    According to TheHill.com, journalists on the ground in Harrisburg reported that the venue had rows of empty seats.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/04/empty-seats-at-pennsylvania-rally-give-the-lie-to-trumps-claim-of-record-breaking-crowd/

  28. A R – This is about smiley (or otherwise) faces/symbols?

    If so some instruction on how to put it into use will be required!

  29. Lizzie, I posted as Dingbat a few years ago and also a couple of other names. I always end up behaving in ways I don’t like and arguing for things I don’t actually believe in so I absent myself before returning with promises to do better.

  30. GOP insiders slam Trump’s desperate, ‘totally insane’ last-minute push for 100-days accomplishments

    President Donald Trump’s last-minute push to rack up some achievements to show for his first 100 days in office sent some of his closest aides reeling and further alienated the president from leaders within his own party, said Politico on Saturday.

    One unnamed White House official told Politico, “I can’t wait for the 100-day sh*t to be over.”

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/04/gop-insiders-slam-trumps-desperate-totally-insane-last-minute-push-for-100-days-accomplishments/

  33. Lizzie

    On Twitter, there was a pic of a half-empty stadium, with Trump doing his usual boasting about the greatest crowd ever.

    This crapola from Trump is trying to divert attention from his non-appearance at the White House Correspondent’s Dinner.

  35. I notice there was a fight in Parliament in Macedonia. Photo of the PM…

    I am not sure what the fuss is about. It is Macedonia… nothing more than a show of hands (fists). Wait till you see a full division of the house.

    Jokes aside, anyone familiar with the history of ideological+ethnic divisions in that region is watching this seriously. Adjacent, Albania, Bulgaria and Serbia (and Greece) have a lot to gain and lose here. Russia, US and the EU are directly involved but for me it is Russian and EU involvement inside the adjacent States that could escalate this. I note especially the recent Russian involvement in elections in Bulgaria. Bulgarians believe Macedonia (including the province in Greece) is traditionally theirs. And Russia would love a sweep of friendly States in the Balkans.

  38. Dingbat

    I always end up behaving in ways I don’t like and arguing for things I don’t actually believe in so I absent myself before returning with promises to do better.

    Just like many politicians who become locked in to political parties and their policies simply because a particular party gave them the best chance of being elected … except they don’t get to disappear for a while and come back under another name.

  39. CTar1 @ #527 Sunday, April 30th, 2017 – 12:17 pm

    A R – This is about smiley (or otherwise) faces/symbols?

    It’s about seeing two posts in a row that were truncated as a result of copy/pasting emojis, yes.

    If so some instruction on how to put it into use will be required!

    There are options:

    1. Chrome – use this, and then click the ‘Quote’ button to quote things instead of using copy/paste.
    2. Firefox – use this, as above and when it gets approved by Mozilla; which at the rate they’re progressing through their review queue will probably be sometime in 2018.
    3. CCCP – Nag Musrum to integrate that code into his script when it quotes things.
    4. Any browser with a JavaScript console – copy/paste the code into the JS console, then run “unicodeEscape(‘<emoji>’)” whenever you want to copy/paste an emoji and not have your post get truncated.

  44. Mmm… JavaScript 🙂

    My comments re Butler and Adani jobs were more about what it tells us about Labors approach on Adani, than a critique of his approach. They are attacking in a area of the Liberals ‘strength’, the financial aspect rather than jobs. This tactic may change, but for now they believe it is the better argument. I think it puts the Liberals on the back foot. The Nats of course do not care.

  47. Abbott once again running interference for the govt.

    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull faces further distractions, with his predecessor Tony Abbott to visit WA to give a speech to Liberal Party members on “enlightenment values” and the importance of Western democracy.

    The visit has raised eyebrows among Federal Liberal MPs, who warn that the former PM risks inflaming growing internal divisions in the WA Liberal Party in the wake of the disastrous State election campaign.

    The speech, due to be held on Wednesday just six days before the Federal Budget, was organised by Liberal Party policy chairman Sherry Sufi, who is himself no stranger to controversy.

    One senior Liberal told The Weekend West that Mr Sufi’s decision to hold the event would mean the media’s attention would be on Mr Abbott and not the Federal Government’s Budget message.

    https://thewest.com.au/news/wa/tony-abbotts-wa-speech-raises-eyebrows-ng-b88457621z

  48. JR, but are they attacking an area of Liberal strength in order not to highlight the jobs aspect which would be perceived as a weakness?

  49. From BK’s links this morning –

    A Canberra barrister is taking on the best-deal accommodation companies and finding out quite a bit in the process.

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/canberra-life/canberras-david-taking-on-the-goliaths-of-trivago-wotif-and-expedia-20170426-gvshbj.html

    Him ‘taking them on’ consists of setting up his own ‘comparison’ site.

    People should be very careful when using sites that compare travel/hotel, insurance stuff and the like.

    Most show only a limited range of services and only those they are paid to promote.

  50. **The European east of Turkey**
    I am not exactly sure what you mean. But my Macedonian grandmother would in one sentence swear about the Turks and also praise them for their fairness and good looks.

    I would love to see a DNA breakdown of Northern Greece/Bulgaria to see how much Turkic blood infiltrated the locals.

    She had nothing good to say about the Greeks.

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