BludgerTrack quarterly breakdown: March 2017

A closer look at federal polling trends at state level, as Labor surges in Western Australia as One Nation loses some of its lustre.

Below is a detailed look at what the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is picking up at state level, enhanced now with Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns, to add to the unpublished breakdowns provided by Essential Research and a few scattered results from Galaxy, ReachTEL and Ipsos. Of greatest note are the state election-fuelled blowout to Labor in Western Australia, and the apparent downturn for One Nation over the past month or two, not just in Western Australia but also in Queensland.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,002 comments on “BludgerTrack quarterly breakdown: March 2017”

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  1. C@Tmomma

    Bushfire will be fine as long as we agree to screen the debut of the video using one of the anamorphic lenses that he designs and builds.

  2. “Claude Taylor‏ @TrueFactsStated 2h2 hours ago
    More
    Comey is coming w/ a blizzard of indictments but that’s just the 1st wave. The 2nd is NY AG with RICO. On account of Trump being a mobster.”
    Well that’s it then. The travel photographer has spoken.

  5. Latest from patribotics : a web of intrigue that would mystify the imagination of even Tom Clancy

    Mike Flynn’s Treason Tour: Global Russian Propaganda Coordinated With Trump

    According to several sources within the intelligence community, Michael Flynn was co-ordinating, with and for Russian agents, the drafting of messages that Vladimir Putin was using to attack democracy in not only the United States, but across Europe. Furthermore, Flynn was doing this with the full knowledge of the Trump campaign, including Donald Trump himself.

    Sir Richard Dearlove, the former head of MI6, told the Financial Times that he and other British former spies had left a dining club at Cambridge – a club to which Flynn belonged – because of concerns about Russian intelligence penetrating it.

    Sir Richard and US sources have indicated to the Guardian newspaper that Director Comey has direct and incontrovertible evidence that Donald Trump’s campaign colluded with Russia

    https://patribotics.blog/2017/04/16/mike-flynns-treason-tour-global-russian-propaganda-coordinated-with-trump/

  6. C@Tmomma

    Anamorphic lenses provided me with a bit of an epiphany about this blog. A flame war broke out in the Bludger lounge over the worth and value of anamorphic lenses for projecting movies in home theatres. It was a realisation that this place can go from flame wars over Hilary vs Obama to flame wars over anamorphic lenses and everything in between without breaking stride. Loved it 🙂

    By the way until that time I never knew such a lens existed. In case you do not, a primer

    Anamorphic Lenses: The Key to Widescreen Cinematic Imagery

    https://www.bhphotovideo.com/explora/video/features/anamorphic-lenses-key-widescreen-cinematic-imagery

  7. Late submission to the Poroti song contest:

    Poor-lean, Poor-lean, Poor-lean, Poor-lean
    I was begging of you please, don’t fuck our land
    Poor-lean, Poor-lean, Poor-lean, Poor-lean
    Then I realised I don’t give a damn
    —
    Your party is just a cult
    Attracting the likes of Andrew Bolt
    Racism, bigoty, these are your themes
    —
    You are an outright rorter
    And not one of your supporters
    Will fund you now, Poor-lean
    —
    You did them over once again
    These folk you once called friend
    They’ll never forgive you, Poor-lean
    —
    Don’t get me wrong
    This is just a song,
    But fuck off to where you came from, Poor-lean
    —
    Poor-lean, Poor-lean, Poor-lean, Poor-lean
    I was begging of you please, don’t fuck our land
    Poor-lean, Poor-lean, Poor-lean, Poor-lean
    Then I realised I don’t give a damn
    —
    I’m glad you did that stoopid dash
    With Cormann and Michaelia Cash
    Brought the WA Libs undone, Poor-lean
    —
    Trying to be a new-found queen
    You are in fact a true has-been
    You are on the nose, Poor-lean
    —
    Poor-lean, Poor-lean, Poor-lean, Poor-lean
    I was begging of you please, don’t fuck our land
    Poor-lean, Poor-lean, Poor-lean, Poor-lean
    Then I realised I don’t give a damn

    About you.

  8. The Queensland government wants its federal counterpart to guarantee funding for any option, including new pipelines, that will boost domestic gas supply and help prevent a crippling shortage on the east coast.Natural Resources and Mines Minister Anthony Lynham has put forward a package to federal Resources Minister Matt Canavan and wants a meeting to seek guaranteed unding for ‘any viable options’ to improve gas supply in the Australian market.’I’m talking about gas pipelines into the Bowen and to the Galilee, to open up these vast new reserves for Australian domestic supply,’ Dr Lynham said in Brisbane on Sunday.Dr Lynham said the funding guarantee could be drawn from the North Australia Infrastructure Facility (NAIF).He is also pushing for a jointly funded study into infrastructure options.The ‘proactive’ move has been welcomed by the Queensland Resources Council, which said NAIF funding could help release ‘stranded gas’ .’It’s common knowledge the eastern seaboard of Australia is facing a gas shortage and instead of putting their head in the sand the government is looking at how to fix the problem,’ chief executive Ian Macfarlane said.

    See more at: http://www.skynews.com.au/news/politics/federal/2017/04/16/shorten-dismisses-adani-coal-mine-loan.html#sthash.4pHzRR9u.Is2DpjxP.dpuf

  13. Ahhh Poroti

    It’s your fault. Haven’t been able to get that tune out of my head. Hopefully this will have exorcised it.

    Seriously, I don’t think Dolly would appreciate being associated in any way with PHON. Uggh!

  14. lizzie @ #958 Sunday, April 16, 2017 at 5:12 pm

    The Queensland government wants its federal counterpart to guarantee funding for any option, including new pipelines, that will boost domestic gas supply and help prevent a crippling shortage on the east coast.

    First the gas industry generates an artificial ‘shortage’ of gas in the domestic market by shipping all our conventional gas overseas at knockdown prices, then they claim that to solve the domestic gas shortage we must use the most expensive and polluting source of gas – i.e. unconventional gas.

    I guess there are some will fall for this con.

  15. U.S. authorities have charged an emergency room physician who performed genital mutilation procedures in an unnamed medical clinic in Livonia, a Detroit suburb. If found guilty, Jumana Nagarwala could face a maximum sentence of life in prison.

    Prosecutors alleged that Jumana Nagarwala, 44, of Northville, Michigan, performed the surgery on girls aged between six and eight, for 12 years. According to Reuters, a criminal complaint unsealed Thursday showed that federal agents were tipped off that Nagarwala was performing FGM in Michigan. Investigators said they tracked down several child victims, some of whom had traveled from outside the state for the procedure.

    “Female genital mutilation constitutes a particularly brutal form of violence against women and girls. It is also a serious federal felony in the United States,” acting U.S. Attorney in Detroit Daniel Lemisch said in a statement quoted by Reuters. “The practice has no place in modern society and those who perform FGM on minors will be held accountable under federal law.”

    http://www.newsweek.com/doctor-charged-carrying-out-fgm-detroit-584114

    Makes Hanson’s and Bernardi’s carry on about halal food and banning the burqa look like the privileged white person whinge that it is.

  17. Fess

    Acutally, I’m a cheater. I had the words, but I just couldn’t get the rhythm, until Acerbic posted. And that made it all fall together

    So, I reckon, Acerbic wins. And I absolutely loved his/her lyrics.

  20. Underdiscussed story of the day; Turkey is about to decide whether or not to become an authoritarian dictatorship under a leader who has already been going hard and mercilessly after his (real and perceived) political enemies:

    Millions of Turks will vote Sunday on a controversial new draft constitution that would give sweeping new powers to the country’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

    Voters are being asked to endorse an 18-article reform package put forward by the ruling Justice and Development Party that would effectively replace the system of parliamentary democracy with a powerful executive presidency.

    Under a “Yes” result — which requires a simple majority — the role of prime minister would be abolished and the president would be able to rule with minimal sign-off from parliament.

    http://edition.cnn.com/2017/04/16/europe/turkey-referendum/index.html

    And it has a very real chance of passing.

  21. [ Turkey is about to decide whether or not to become an authoritarian dictatorship under a leader who has already been going hard and mercilessly after his (real and perceived) political enemies: ]

    Utterly bizarre. If the yes vote gets up it gives the president the right to rule by decree?? Bye Bye democracy in Turkey.

    also under discussed, Manus Island shootings. Thats dropped right off the radar in the media.

  22. Interesting article about the discovery of coffins of several archbishops of Canterbury by workmen building a path
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/thinking-man/remains-five-missing-archbishops-canterbury-found-accident/

    I do not know this

    [The coffins – which have been left exactly where they were discovered, undisturbed – will be out of bounds, for good reason. Most lead sarcophagi contain dry remains; however, some bodies decompose into a viscous black liquid known as “coffin liquor”. Should the ancient casings ever crack, it will spray forth.]

  24. Kay Jay

    I saw a discussion earlier about birds in general, and I think you make a comment about butcher birds.

    Have to tell you this story:

    An old gum tree, in my yard, had the smallest of branches – I’m talking 6 inches here, attached to the trunk, about at least 20ft from the ground – from which possy a kookaburra used to perch, on fairly much a daily basis.

    I used to love sitting on my deck, watching him, watching everything; head quirked sideways, visible eye staring at the ground. I wondered about peripheral vision. And I would always get a ‘fright’ when he swooped to the ground and grabbed a morsel, that I couldn’t tell.

    Anyway, one day, as I was sitting on the deck, I noticed a butcher bird had taken up residence on the said perch. Suddenly, out of the corner of my eye, I saw the butcher bird leave the perch and, quick as a blink, skewer a sparrow, who was frequenting a tree, right in front of me.

    I can’t emphasise enough the skewering. Straight through the body, but it took a good couple of minutes for the butcher bird to free itself from the trunk of the tree, before it managed to begin devouring the sparrow.

    I suggest we start making small armaments out of this beak-material.

  25. kezza2
    #974 Sunday, April 16, 2017 at 6:18 pm

    Great story ❗
    Thanks VM.
    ☕ Coffee for me.
    ♡ For you.
    Goodnight all.

  26. kezza2 @ #967 Sunday, April 16, 2017 at 5:34 pm

    Fess
    Acutally, I’m a cheater. I had the words, but I just couldn’t get the rhythm, until Acerbic posted. And that made it all fall together
    So, I reckon, Acerbic wins. And I absolutely loved his/her lyrics.

    A generous concession.
    I thought both were excellent.
    It would be great to have them performed and put on Youtube where they may well go viral.

  28. For anyone not depressed or pessimistic enough about the future yet:
    Racing to the Precipice, as Republicans stand by the rising seas holding bibles high commanding the waters to retreat ~~ 1 & 1/2 hrs of slow and steady dead pan Chomsky. If the climate don’t get ya, Chomsky will.

    https://youtu.be/TK0R_06zOOY

  29. itzadream @ #978 Sunday, April 16, 2017 at 8:15 pm

    For anyone not depressed or pessimistic enough about the future yet:
    Racing to the Precipice, as Republicans stand by the rising seas holding bibles high commanding the waters to retreat ~~ 1 & 1/2 hrs of slow and steady dead pan Chomsky. If the climate don’t get ya, Chomsky will.
    https://youtu.be/TK0R_06zOOY

    How on earth can anyone in the 21st Century have their heads filled with such shit?

  30. It’s all Harry Potter’s fault!
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/the-dark-side-of-harry-potter-could-transfer-to-our-world-20170410-gvi6d4.html

    John Maynard Keynes is one of the most important people who ever lived. His conviction that governments should spend up when things turn down saved lives and probably saved capitalism. But his thoughts weren’t widely read. Even the world’s best-selling economics textbook has sold just four million copies.

    In contrast, since the late 1990s JK Rowling’s Harry Potter books have sold 450 million worldwide. On one estimate – perhaps an underestimate given the number of times they’ve been shared and counterfeited – they’ve been read by 7.4 per cent of the world’s population. And the people who’ve read them are (or were) predominantly young; members of Generations Y and Z who will soon be running our lives.
    —

  31. Bemused:
    How on earth can anyone in the 21st Century have their heads filled with such shit?

    Has to be fear. Those clinging to the past, heads in the sand, denying, obfuscating -prime examples Howard and Abbott, the retrogrades – fear of their gods, the future, the everything out there. I mean, the Church and Science denial go back a looong way. And fear drives hoarding – the rich are generally very fearful and insecure thinking hoping money and materialism protects them. And fear makes for attack – shock jocks, fundamentalists, poofter bashers, an endless list.

    (Bit uncoordinated B, that time of night.)

  32. imacca @ #971 Sunday, April 16th, 2017 – 5:59 pm

    also under discussed, Manus Island shootings. Thats dropped right off the radar in the media.

    Yep, surprised that nobody really seems to care. Though I suppose neither major party has any serious interest in changing the status quo on refugee policy. If you’ve already decided that indefinite detention is essentially acceptable and not a violation of fundamental human rights, you probably don’t care if some of your indefinite non-persons are getting shot at.

  33. a r @ #982 Sunday, April 16, 2017 at 9:12 pm

    imacca @ #971 Sunday, April 16th, 2017 – 5:59 pm

    also under discussed, Manus Island shootings. Thats dropped right off the radar in the media.

    Yep, surprised that nobody really seems to care. Though I suppose neither major party has any serious interest in changing the status quo on refugee policy. If you’ve already decided that indefinite detention is essentially acceptable and not a violation of fundamental human rights, you probably don’t care if some of your indefinite non-persons are getting shot at.

    I think it is partially explained by no-one being killed or injured by a bullet.
    Reduces it to not much more than an ordinary disturbance.

  38. That information came from the Patribotics blog by Louise Mensch linked earlier. And yes, I know that there were a lot of real Bernie Bros on Twitter too. However, it has been fascinating to find out how our social media has been so thoroughly compromised and manipulated by bad actors.

  41. Malcolm Turnbull is the greatest, most vile corruption, in the history of western democracy.
    $49 billion wasted.
    You could build a city of 2 million people.
    Or pay for an aircraft carrier-fucking-battle-group for 30 years…

  43. John Smith,
    There is an awful lot of evil in the world. Some of it comes in the form of politicians.

    Have you read the latest Patribotics blog?
    https://patribotics.blog/2017/04/16/mike-flynns-treason-tour-global-russian-propaganda-coordinated-with-trump/

    It outlines in fine detail how committed vain and ambitious people are to subverting democracy and the best interests of the people. Trump, Flynn, Bannon, Putin, Turnbull, Assange, Farage…

    And they are only the main players! There’s plenty of little fish emulating the whales in their own little ponds. Sad!

  45. douglas and milko @ #985 Sunday, April 16, 2017 at 9:43 pm

    Hi KayJay,
    I hope you are doing well – thinking of you.
    I always enjoy your posts.

    I’m well enough. The FD (favourite daughter) brought her Labrador “Gracie” to visit tonight.
    Beautiful black dog and wonderfully happy with herself.
    Back to bed for me. About 19 ℃ her in Newcastle. We old and worn out types feel the cold. The electric blanket giving good value.
    Goodnight again.

  46. KayJay,

    (I’m somewhat behind in my reading…) So sorry to read about the Regimental Dog. I hope you are coping at such a horrible time. I will miss her insights. And a lovely friend to you.

    All the best

  48. kezza
    you’ve won the national Poorlean Lyrical competition.

    Now find a band and enter it into the European Song Contest. Sure winner.

  49. Kayjay.
    I am with you in empathy over the loss of your furbaby. My Traffy went to Rainbow Bridge 18 months ago.

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