Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: February-March 2017

Detailed Newspoll breakdowns find older voters, regional areas and Western Australians turning particularly heavily against the Turnbull government.

If you’ll pardon me for being a day late with this one, The Australian has published the regular quarterly breakdowns of voting intention by state, age and gender (voting intention here, leadership ratings here), which suggest swings against the Coalition of 2% in South Australia, 3% in New South Wales and Victoria, 6% in Queensland and just shy of 8% in Western Australia. The demographic breakdowns are interesting in showing particularly strong movement against the Coalition among the older age cohort (down 10% on the primary vote, compared with 7% overall) and those outside the capital cities (down 9%, compared with around half that in the capitals). The polling was drawn from all of Newspoll’s surveying through February and March, with an overall sample of 6943.

Late as usual, below is BludgerTrack updated with last week’s Newspoll and Essential Research. The state breakdowns in BludgerTrack are a little compromised at the moment in using a straight average of all polling since the election to determine each state’s deviation from the total, and is thus understating the recent movement against the Coalition in Western Australia. As of the next BludgerTrack update, which will be an expanded version featuring primary votes for each state, trend measures will be used.

Stay tuned for today's Essential Research results, with which this post will be updated early afternoon some time.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Absolutely on change in this week’s reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average, with Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, the Coalition leading 37% to 36% on the primary vote, the Greens on 10% and One Nation on 8%.

The poll includes Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which have both leaders improving on last month – Malcolm Turnbull is up two on approval to 35% and down three on disapproval to 47%, and Bill Shorten is up three to 33% and down three to 46% – while Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister nudges from 38-26 to 39-28.

The government’s business tax cuts get the thumbs down, with 31% approving and 50% disapproving; only 20% believing the cut should extend to bigger businesses, with 60% deeming otherwise; and 57% thinking bigger business profits the more likely outcome of the cuts, compared with 26% for employing more workers.

On the question of whether various listed items were “getting better or worse for you and your family”, housing affordability, cost of electricity and gas and “the quality of political representation” emerged as the worst of a bad bunch.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

811 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: February-March 2017”

  1. Doughnut Economics : seven ways to think like a 21st-century economist /
    Kate Raworth

    Identifies seven ways in which mainstream economics has led us astray, and sets out a roadmap for bringing humanity into a sweet spot. This title deconstructs the character of “Rational economic man” and explains what really makes us tick. It also aims to reframe and redraw the future of economics for a new generation.

  2. Mike Egan was NSW treasurer in Bob Carr’s government. He was in the LC. He delivered budgets in the upper house from memory. He won Cronulla in the Wranslide. Lost it when things went back to normal for the seat.

  3. Reeling Republicans Rocked As Evidence Surfaces That Trump Took Illegal Contributions

    The Campaign Legal Center (CLC) has filed new evidence with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) alleging that the super PAC Make America Number 1 made illegal contributions to Donald Trump’s presidential campaign.

    If Democrats win back control of the House or the Senate in 2018, they may have a wide variety of potential Trump crimes to investigate. The Russia scandal is the center of the dark cloud that is hanging over this administration, but following the money, investigators may find that Russia is just a part of the criminal activity that it took to get Donald Trump into the White House.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/04/12/reeling-republicans-rocked-evidence-surfaces-trump-illegal-contributions.html

  4. Read this interesting synopsis about the Middle East . Can’t find name of author but rings true.
    “Here’s a brief explanation of what’s going down in Syria.
    Back in 2000, Saudi Arabia (Quatar) proposed 2 oil pipelines. The purpose was to bring Natural Gas from the middle East to western Europe. They were labeled plan A and plan B.
    Plan A ran through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Turkey, and Syria.
    Plan B bypassed Syria, instead going through Iraq.
    Plan A is the easiest and most direct route, with the most profits for US and European allies.
    Assad, the leader of Syria and a strong ally of Russia, blocked the plan A pipeline. This lead the US and NATO forces to look at plan B, which prompted the invasion of Iraq to make them complicit in the construction.
    Russia does not want this pipe built at all, as they export 70% of their natural gas product to Europe, and this pipeline would hurt their economy. They enlist Iran to help block plan B, and Syria to block plan A.
    Russia begins sending aid to Assad, to help him keep power during the civil war, so they can continue to block the pipeline. The US and NATO forces send aid to the rebels, so they can over throw Assad and build the pipeline unhindered.
    So, basically, here’s the boiled down version. The US and Russia are in a proxy war in Syria over a pipeline which would end European dependency on Russian natural gas, so Europe would be free (er) to back sanctions and possible military actions against Russia if the need ever arose.
    Our involvement in Syria has nothing to do with humanitarian aid or chemical weapons. It has to do with money, oil, and ending Russian dominance in the European energy market.
    Keep your eyes open. And keep looking deeper.”

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