Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: February-March 2017

Detailed Newspoll breakdowns find older voters, regional areas and Western Australians turning particularly heavily against the Turnbull government.

If you’ll pardon me for being a day late with this one, The Australian has published the regular quarterly breakdowns of voting intention by state, age and gender (voting intention here, leadership ratings here), which suggest swings against the Coalition of 2% in South Australia, 3% in New South Wales and Victoria, 6% in Queensland and just shy of 8% in Western Australia. The demographic breakdowns are interesting in showing particularly strong movement against the Coalition among the older age cohort (down 10% on the primary vote, compared with 7% overall) and those outside the capital cities (down 9%, compared with around half that in the capitals). The polling was drawn from all of Newspoll’s surveying through February and March, with an overall sample of 6943.

Late as usual, below is BludgerTrack updated with last week’s Newspoll and Essential Research. The state breakdowns in BludgerTrack are a little compromised at the moment in using a straight average of all polling since the election to determine each state’s deviation from the total, and is thus understating the recent movement against the Coalition in Western Australia. As of the next BludgerTrack update, which will be an expanded version featuring primary votes for each state, trend measures will be used.

Stay tuned for today's Essential Research results, with which this post will be updated early afternoon some time.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Absolutely on change in this week’s reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average, with Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, the Coalition leading 37% to 36% on the primary vote, the Greens on 10% and One Nation on 8%.

The poll includes Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which have both leaders improving on last month – Malcolm Turnbull is up two on approval to 35% and down three on disapproval to 47%, and Bill Shorten is up three to 33% and down three to 46% – while Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister nudges from 38-26 to 39-28.

The government’s business tax cuts get the thumbs down, with 31% approving and 50% disapproving; only 20% believing the cut should extend to bigger businesses, with 60% deeming otherwise; and 57% thinking bigger business profits the more likely outcome of the cuts, compared with 26% for employing more workers.

On the question of whether various listed items were “getting better or worse for you and your family”, housing affordability, cost of electricity and gas and “the quality of political representation” emerged as the worst of a bad bunch.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

811 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: February-March 2017”

Comments Page 1 of 17
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  1. A Russian hacker arrested in Spain for hacking US Election.
    Spanish police have arrested a Russian programmer for alleged involvement in “hacking” the US election, Spanish press reports have said.
    Pyotr Levashov, arrested on 7 April in Barcelona, has now been remanded in custody.
    A “legal source” also told the AFP news agency that Mr Levashov was the subject of an extradition request by the US.
    The request is due to be examined by Spain’s national criminal court, the agency added.
    El Confidencial, a Spanish news website, has said that Mr Levashov’s arrest warrant was issued by US authorities over suspected “hacking” that helped Donald Trump’s campaign.
    Mr Levashov’s wife Maria also told Russian broadcaster RT that the arrest was made in connection with such allegations.

    Several cybersecurity experts, including Brian Krebs, have also linked Mr Levashov to a Russian spam kingpin, who uses the alias Peter Severa.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-39553250

    Tom

  2. By ‘turn against’, is that referring to simply changing their primary votes, or does it mean they’re preferencing Labor? Because if they’re still preferencing the Libs, it doesn’t change much.

  3. Not a lot to do with Homeopathic “remedies” but the wonderful fuel saver “Hiclone” fuel saver is being advertised on TV again.
    From time to time also the Ultrasound pest and rodent killer is advertised.
    All of these scams would seem to confirm P.T. Barnums dictum “There’s a sucker born every minute”.
    Good morning everybody. ☮

  4. Good Morning Bludgers 🙂
    Boy, the Spanish security cordon around that Russian Hacker will have to be drum tight if he’s to make it to America alive. The Russians donm’t like their secrets being spilled. They’d rather spill blood to protect them from prying eyes.

  5. It would be quite an achievement for the Russians to sabotage a US election. The Americans did that decades ago. What a farce the political world is.

  7. C@Tmomma

    Bit of a beat up the guy is a spam artist.

    According to anti-spam group Spamhaus, Levashov is among world’s 10 worst spammers.
    The US Justice Department says that Levashov was the Russian partner of Alan Ralsky, who was later convicted for creating spam schemes designed to artificially inflate the value of penny stocks.

    An official of the US Justice Department told Reuters that it was criminal matter without an ‘apparent national security connection’.

    http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/pyotr-levashov-russia-arrested-spain-donald-trump-us-election-hacking/1/924970.html

  8. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Peter Hartcher on China’s (lack of) reaction to Trump’s missiles into Syria.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/china-took-a-very-different-message-from-donald-trumps-syria-attack-20170410-gvhm8h.html
    Paul Bongiorno is of the opinion that Australia will follow Trump – wherever he may lead..
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/04/10/australia-following-trump-syria/
    This SMH editorial looks at Andre Robb’s review of the Liberal’s election campaign.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/a-rod-for-malcolm-turnbulls-back-20170406-gvfm8l.html
    A great moment was had on QandA last night.
    http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/qa-recap-an-emotional-debate-about-dying-with-dignity-20170410-gvi6ru.html
    Another multiple fatality shooting in a US elementary school.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/san-bernardino-school-shooting-police-respond-to-gunfire-at-north-park-elementary-school-20170410-gvi6md.html
    Nicole Hemmer writes that Trump’s action on Syria was not foreign policy doctrine, just impulsiveness. Worrying really.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/trumps-action-on-syria-was-not-foreign-policy-doctrine-just-impulsiveness-20170410-gvhkmk.html
    Looks like one of Abbott’s “signature policies” , the work for the dole program, might be set for the chop. But the right wing rump may not be happy about it.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/san-bernardino-school-shooting-police-respond-to-gunfire-at-north-park-elementary-school-20170410-gvi6md.html
    The Young Nationals have split with the senior ranks of the party, voting to support the introduction of a carbon trading scheme. It is the second time in less than two years that the Young Nats have parted with the Barnaby Joyce-led National Party on a key policy issue, having resolved in 2015 to support same-sex marriage.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/young-nationals-reject-federal-party-policy-to-back-emissions-trading-20170410-gvi0n1.html
    Meanwhile Andy Vesey writes that the rules of the energy are unfit for purpose.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/bungled-closure-of-hazelwood-shouldnt-have-been-allowed-to-happen-20170407-gvfrz7.html
    The chairperson of Homelessness Australia writes that Morrison’s highly anticipated speech on housing affordability on Monday has succeeded in articulating the depth and breadth of Australia’s affordability crisis, but failed to provide a comprehensive policy response.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/governments-piecemeal-housing-fix-simply-wont-work-20170410-gvhsrq.html

  9. Section 2 . . .

    Michael Pascoe is of a similar opinion saying that Morrison is a contortionist on the issue of negative gearing.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/scott-morrison-makes-the-case-for-negative-gearing-change-20170410-gvi217.html
    And Greg Jericho says that Morrison makes a good case for changing negative gearing and then rules it out!
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2017/apr/11/scott-morrison-makes-case-for-negative-gearing-change-despite-ruling-it-out
    Jenna Price looks at the effects of housing affordability on Baby Boomers who don’t own their own home.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/housing-affordability-even-worse-for-the-old-20170409-gvhay1.htmli
    The Coalition is in confusion over the super-for-housing proposal. And Abbott’s right in the middle of it.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/property/2017/04/10/superannuation-house-deposit-2017/
    Once they work out that Audrey Zibelman is pro-renewables, her appointment as AEMO’s new CEO is bound to upset the Coalition writes Dr Norm Sanders.
    https://independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/lturnbull-scomo-and-coal-lovers-look-out-here-comes-audrey-zibelman,10194
    John Birmingham farewells John Clarke.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/blunt-instrument/john-clarke-gone-to-the-great-farnarkling-grommet-in-the-sky-20170410-gvi38w.html
    Ivanka Trump and the Cult of the First Daughter.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/ivanka-trump-and-the-cult-of-the-first-daughter-20170409-gvhel6.html
    Adam Gartrell says that Bill Shorten is calling on the Turnbull government to bring forward $620 million in funding for local councils to act as a de-facto stimulus package to drive infrastructure investment and create new jobs.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/shot-in-the-arm-shorten-calls-for-620m-council-stimulus-package-20170410-gvhtv1.html
    Taxpayers will have to foot a bill worth many millions of dollars for a computer network linking the homes of Canberra public servants left behind by the forced relocation of the pesticides authority to Armidale. What a masterstroke by Barnaby!
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/taxpayers-to-be-slugged-for-home-networks-of-public-servants-left-behind-by-apvma-move-20170410-gvhod8.html

  10. Section 3 . . . with Cartoon Corner

    The joys of flying! The scourge of overbooking. Google.
    news/world/united-airlines-passenger-filmed-being-dragged-from-overbooked-flight/news-story/c5c560aefedb4b430d6919cd52076abc
    Centrelink’s demands on former welfare recipients targeted by its “robo-debt” program were neither “reasonable” nor ‘fair”, the Commonwealth Ombudsman has found.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/not-reasonable-or-fair-ombudsman-slams-centrelinks-robodebt-20170409-gvhf5u.html
    Pauline Hanson has banned the ABC and says she’s had a gutful of the media. Well Pauline, we’ve well and truly had a gutful of you!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/pauline-hanson-celebrates-one-nation-anniversary-by-banning-the-abc-20170410-gvhzmc.html
    Eddie Obeid’s family has been hauled into court to answer questions about the cash profits from two harbourside cafes at the centre of his trial.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/eddie-obeids-family-questioned-over-circular-quay-cash-profits-20170410-gvhllc.html

    Cathy Wilcox and Ron Tandberg on the work for the dole program.


    Alan Moir nails Trump here.

    Cathy Wilcox on the revelation that the NSW government has been nobbling proposals for better rail in favour of road projects.

    Andrew Dyson has Trump all worked out.

    We’re right behind Trump. Are we?
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/a34e346cdf9c144b37b4c859f4e5e9df

  11. Seems the Young Nats either worked out they’d still be alive for the bad part of not doing anything or that increased temperatures and severe weather events make it hard to farm / graze.

    Props to them.

  12. Poroti,
    Bit of a beat up the guy is a spam artist.

    I wouldn’t let him off so lightly (which you strangely seem to want to do with everything Russian and Hacking, I’ve noticed…why an apologist???).

    However, if you read the whole article you will see that he was capable of being both a ‘Spam Artist’ (often done to pay the bills as a Day Job, or as cover), and a Hacker, targeted for arrest by Interpol.

  15. Morning bludgers

    Whislt we have Turnbull in co in charge, they will most definitely follow the disgusting Trump wherever he may go. Seriously, how stuffed up is that. It is obvious to anyone that Trump is a lying piece of perverted crap

  16. For those following the Trump imbroglio, this is quite amazing….

    6h
    JΞSŦΞR ✪ ΔCŦUAL³³º¹‏ @th3j35t3r
    They’re still laughing. This is an actual tweet from the verified account of the Russian Embassy in the UK.

    Russian Embassy, UK‏ @RussianEmbassy
    Embedded
    To really special people like @LouiseMensch and @funder who keep telling the world that @POTUS is a Russian puppet.

  17. Louise Mensch Retweeted

    5h
    Maxine Waters‏ @MaxineWaters
    Breaking: Russian hacker arrested in Spain told wife warrant was “linked to Trump’s election win” (link: http://shareblue.com/breaking-russian-hacker-arrested-in-spain-told-wife-warrant-was-linked-to-trumps-election-win/#.WOuwoeyhJnU.twitter) shareblue.com/breaking-russi… via @shareblue
    Breaking: Russian hacker arrested in Spain told wife warrant was “linked to Trump’s election win” -…
    shareblue.com

  18. Morning all. Thanks BK. I should add my condolences on the passing of John Clarke. He was clever, accurate and funny without being cruel, sharp till his last piece on Morrison last week. I will miss him.

  19. bemused @11:04pm (in previous thread)

    There are 2 gas-fired generators in the Latrobe Valley – Jeeralang and Valley Power.

  20. C@Tmomma

    Note this bit,, As for wanting to “let him off lightly” , you may have noticed they things he was involved in, he will cop heaps for that and I have no problems with that. When it comes to the “Russia Russia Russia” hysteria ?I have become very sceptical. Too much ‘sizzle’ being built on SFA.

    “An official of the US Justice Department told Reuters that it was criminal matter without an ‘apparent national security connection’.”

    .

  22. GG

    I wish the Trump shit show was over. He is a narcissistic lying preverted creep, who colluded with Putin to win election, in order to enrich himself and his fellow travellers. He is a traitor.

    Meanwhile

    1h
    John Schindler‏ @20committee
    This is bad, even for Putin

    Official: Russia knew in advance of Syrian chemical attack
    apnews.com

  25. Interesting to look at the Qld poll numbers – actually worse for the Coalition than WA. Does Adani save or cost votes overall there? Even the young nationals (the under 50s) are supporting a carbon price, so there must be some damage being done.

    Two weeks after Debbie I note that Qld politicians are still studiously avoiding linking climate change with the increased frequency of severe cyclones, despite a scientific study having already proven it.

  26. [The joys of flying! The scourge of overbooking. Google.]

    Someone captured footage of it on their phone. It’s pretty shocking to watch.

  28. BK

    Looks like one of Abbott’s “signature policies” , the work for the dole program, might be set for the chop. But the right wing rump may not be happy about it.

    Wrong link for this article.

  30. The removal of a ‘dictator’ often seems to lead to chaos.

    The north African nation is a major exit point for refugees from Africa trying to take boats to Europe. But since the overthrow of autocratic leader Muammar Gaddafi, the vast, sparsely populated country has slid into violent chaos and migrants with little cash and usually no papers are particularly vulnerable.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/10/libya-public-slave-auctions-un-migration

  32. confessions
    Tuesday, April 11, 2017 at 8:04 am

    The comment box is at the top again and not the bottom.
    When I turn of CCCP I have comment box top and bottom.
    With CCCP turned on the comment box is at the bottom.
    Confused ❓ You bet you are. You bet I are. Well, maybe somebody is confused.

  35. So this is true. Coal dust into wetlands from Abbot Point coal storage. Restrictions are laughable.

    A vast swathe of the Caley Valley wetlands has been blackened by coal-laden water released from nearby Abbot Point port after Debbie’s torrential rains inundated its coal storage facilities last month.

    Satellite imagery of the coal spill last week prompted an investigation by the Queensland Department of Environment and Heritage Protection (EHP), which said the port operator appeared to have acted in line with a temporary licence to release the excess water.

    It’s either Adani or the Great Barrier Reef. Are we willing to fight for a wonder of the world?
    Jeff Sparrow
    Jeff Sparrow Read more
    The caveat was that the licence did not “authorise environmental harm”, an environment department spokeswoman said.

    Norm Duke, a principal research scientist at James Cook University’s TropWater unit and an expert in diagnosing contamination of wetlands, said an aerial image of the area showed “there’s undoubtedly going to be environmental harm”.

    “The image shows me a massive contamination of an area that I’m very familiar with,” Duke told Guardian Australia. “That’s not an area they should be dumping their stuff in.

    “I’m surprised (they were allowed to do so)– in some ways it would be almost better going into the sea rather than dropping it into somewhere it’s just going to cause long-term damage.”

    Duke, who has done extensive research on contamination of mangroves from oil spills, said he had “never seen anything as bad as this for coal dust”.

    The spread of coal dust over a “huge” area of the wetlands risked creating a “double whammy” of harm that would have dire implications for local flora and fauna, from fish and birds to molluscs and crabs, he said.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/apr/10/abbot-point-coal-port-spill-causes-massive-contamination-of-queensland-wetland

  38. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/apr/10/abbot-point-coal-port-spill-causes-massive-contamination-of-queensland-wetland

    Regulations? A joke.

    A vast swathe of the Caley Valley wetlands has been blackened by coal-laden water released from nearby Abbot Point port after Debbie’s torrential rains inundated its coal storage facilities last month.

    Satellite imagery of the coal spill last week prompted an investigation by the Queensland Department of Environment and Heritage Protection (EHP), which said the port operator appeared to have acted in line with a temporary licence to release the excess water.

    The caveat was that the licence did not “authorise environmental harm”, an environment department spokeswoman said.

    Norm Duke, a principal research scientist at James Cook University’s TropWater unit and an expert in diagnosing contamination of wetlands, said an aerial image of the area showed “there’s undoubtedly going to be environmental harm”.

    “The image shows me a massive contamination of an area that I’m very familiar with,” Duke told Guardian Australia. “That’s not an area they should be dumping their stuff in.

    “I’m surprised they were allowed to do so – in some ways it would be almost better going into the sea rather than dropping it into somewhere it’s just going to cause long-term damage.”

    Duke, who has done extensive research on contamination of mangroves from oil spills, said he had “never seen anything as bad as this for coal dust”.

    The spread of coal dust over a “huge” area of the wetlands risked creating a “double whammy” of harm that would have dire implications for local flora and fauna, from fish and birds to molluscs and crabs, he said.

  40. Many self managed funds already use their funds to purchases houses as investments. I seem to recall, that some time ago, these funds could also borrow to purchase these investments.

    I can see it is only a short leap to allow first home buyers to access their super to purchase a house.

    All this does is fuel the Ponzi scheme with more tears when the music stops.

  41. Socrates

    Perhaps the penny is dropping after simultaneous headlines about reef bleaching, Adani coal and the tropical cyclone.

  43. Trog

    Labor’s policies always seem to prefer ‘jobs’ to the environment, but the Adani mine is an example where the jobs created will be fewer than tourism on the Reef.

  44. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/apr/11/most-australians-think-businesses-will-pocket-company-tax-cuts-poll

    The poll found no change in first-preference votes on the previous week with the Coalition on 37%, Labor on 36%, the Greens on 10%, One Nation on 8%, Nick Xenophon on 3% and others/independents on 6%. The two-party-preferred vote was unchanged, with Labor leading the Coalition 53% to 47%.

    The approval ratings of both leaders improved marginally, though both remain in negative territory. Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval rating improving from minus 17 to minus 12 and Bill Shorten went from minus 19 to minus 13.

  45. Lizzie
    There are far more jobs in renewables, as everybody knows, but future jobs seem to rank lower than existing ones. Labor defers to the unions, when what they should be proposing is sound policy to manage the transition. This was done effectively in Germany, with a much greater population of coal miners.

  47. From the last thread:

    blanket criticism @ #2478 Tuesday, April 11, 2017 at 1:02 am
    Ugh, cricket is the worst!
    Pretty annoyed right now that Midnight Oil played a secret show about 10 minutes from my house last night and I didn’t hear about it. I used to think I was pretty hip, having worked in the entertainment industry for a few years. Apparently not anymore.

    You’re not Robinson Crusoe. It was very much word of mouth. I found out the night before at Ups & Downs. For once, nothing got out on social media beforehand as far as I know. Even the bar staff didn’t even know it was happening.

    I got there a bit after 2 and there was a few more people than usual but not too bad, but it started to fill up around then. I’ve gotta stress, it was all still a rumour at this point. I wasn’t sure until the guitars were unpacked (Moginie’s Gretsch and Rotsey’s Jazzmaster and Ricky 12 are kinda iconic). A mate then googled pics of the drum kit and found a match.

    They stopped letting people in around 3.30 I think (including my missus, who ended up giving up and going home). Even then, no-one was sure it was going to happen at all. They came on around 4.30 and played just under an hour. One encore and all done. I’m not that big a fan but man, it was awesome! The musical highlight if I have to pick one was Best of Both Worlds. The actual highlight was my 11 year old nephew in the front row, grinning from ear to ear, and scoring the setlist and a photo with Bones afterwards. I don’t think he’ll be forgetting it in a hurry.

  48. During the period Labor was last in power some pseph fact(oid) popped up about a government is cactus once they have had x amount of polls/months with support below a certain level. That 53/47 rings a bell but can anyone remember what the figure was and “are we there yet” ?

  50. Essential up, no change from last week on primaries or TPP. So still 53-47.

    Turnbull up 5 on netsats and Shorten up 6. Turnbull now leads Shorten by 1 on netsats, down from 2.

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