BludgerTrack quarterly breakdown: March 2017

A closer look at federal polling trends at state level, as Labor surges in Western Australia as One Nation loses some of its lustre.

Below is a detailed look at what the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is picking up at state level, enhanced now with Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns, to add to the unpublished breakdowns provided by Essential Research and a few scattered results from Galaxy, ReachTEL and Ipsos. Of greatest note are the state election-fuelled blowout to Labor in Western Australia, and the apparent downturn for One Nation over the past month or two, not just in Western Australia but also in Queensland.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,002 comments on “BludgerTrack quarterly breakdown: March 2017”

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  1. From previous thread:

    Egan was NSW treasurer in Bob Carr’s government. He was in the LC. He delivered budgets in the upper house from memory. He won Cronulla in the Wranslide. Lost it when things went back to normal for the seat.
    It was great to be a Labor supporter when Ray Thorburn and Mike Egan turned Cook and Cronulla red if only for a short time.

  2. Of greatest note are the state election-fuelled blowout to Labor in Western Australia, and the apparent downturn for One Nation over the past month or two, not just in Western Australia but also in Queensland.

    Yippeee!

  3. Reeling Republicans Rocked As Evidence Surfaces That Trump Took Illegal Contributions

    The Campaign Legal Center (CLC) has filed new evidence with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) alleging that the super PAC Make America Number 1 made illegal contributions to Donald Trump’s presidential campaign.

    If Democrats win back control of the House or the Senate in 2018, they may have a wide variety of potential Trump crimes to investigate. The Russia scandal is the center of the dark cloud that is hanging over this administration, but following the money, investigators may find that Russia is just a part of the criminal activity that it took to get Donald Trump into the White House.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/04/12/reeling-republicans-rocked-evidence-surfaces-trump-illegal-contributions.html

  4. The Dictionary Trolls Sean Spicer’s Lie about Hitler Not Gassing His Own People

    Dictionary.Com got in the troll-the-lie game Wednesday, using MSNBC’s “Hitler gassed millions” chyron fact-checking Sean Spicer as an example of chyron.

    MSNBC’s chyron was so good, the dictionary couldn’t resist using it as an example of a chyron. It’s also an excellent example of how to deal with an administration whose lies permeate and pollute our environment before they can be fact-checked.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/04/12/dictionary-trolls-sean-spicers-lie-hitler-gassing-people.html

  5. Corrupt Trump Can Recall The Cake He Was Eating But Not The Country He Has Was Attacking

    “Trump remembers details of cake he was eating while launching missiles, but not which country he was attacking,” Vogel wrote over a clip of Trump describing his missile launch on Iraq.

    Trump said, “We’ve just launched 59 missiles heading to Iraq–”
    Bartiromo interrupted to correct him, “– heading to Syria–”
    Trump acknowledged with no recognition that it might be wise to speak carefully when relishing your missile strike over cake, “Yes, to Syria.”

    Trump defenders will say he misspoke, but Trump’s relentless record of dangerously careless rhetoric is the real problem. It’s true, anyone can misspeak. But when they’re the President and they’re describing their decision making process behind launching missiles at another country on TV during a planned interview, there is really no excuse other than the truth.

    Accuracy and the truth simply don’t matter to Donald Trump. He’s all about the grandiose story in which he is a Superhero.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/04/12/trump-recalls-details-cake-eating-country-attacking.html

  6. Panicked Trump Flees Carter Page Scandal by Running to Fox to Sell Obama Lies

    “What I did should have been done by the Obama administration long before I did it…I think Syria would be a lot better off right now”

    He told Bartiromo how upset he was at the images of mangled children but even after seeing them he has no coherent policy on Syria. He said at the outset, “We’re not going into Syria,” after all.

    His few missiles changed nothing and the biggest impact of the attack was felt not on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad or his victims, but on his pocketbook and his own inflated ego.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/04/12/panicked-trump-carter-page-scandal-fox-obama-lies.html

  10. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Looks like Trump is getting ready to dump Bannon. That will be a sad loss I must say.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/straighten-it-out-or-i-will-donald-trump-distances-himself-from-steve-bannon-20170412-gvk0au.html
    And President Xi Jinping has urged his US counterpart Donald Trump to seek a “peaceful solution” on the Korean peninsula, in a phone call that came in the wake of Mr Trump’s latest tweeted salvo linking the issue to a trade deal.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/china-rebuffs-donald-trumps-north-korea-tweet-with-niceties-20170412-gvjnnn.html
    Greg Sheridan says Trump has made a series of declarations and moves that suggest the world is closer to a hot encounter on the Korean Peninsula than it has been for decades. Google.
    /opinion/columnists/greg-sheridan/acting-on-north-korea-could-unleash-a-holocaust/news-story/72a5ec0ee5cf02094afadeffa3a9465c
    Robert Reich outlines 13 reasons Trump voters have buyers’ remorse. Ouch!
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2017/04/12/13-reasons-trump-voters-buyers-regret/
    Nick O’Malley can’t work out why the government continues to be wedded to so many bad policies. Well worth reading.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-government-is-becoming-wedded-to-far-too-many-bad-policies-20170412-gvjfgg.html
    Michael Pascoe says “There’s a bigger economic threat starting to rumble ominously just beyond our immediate headline hogs of housing affordability and energy: What if inflation rises and wages don’t?” It’s a bit of a worry.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/what-if-inflation-rises-and-wages-dont-20170411-gvj71w.html
    We can rely on Greg Jericho to lift the lid on negative gearing. He proves that the ATO day supports the proposition that negative gearing benefits the rich the most. He says “The time to move is now. Failure to do so will cost the government much more in the future and it will also be much harder to move should the practice become even more prevalent.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2017/apr/13/the-latest-tax-data-proves-it-negative-gearing-benefits-the-rich-the-most
    Nikki Savva writes that no one can remember a time when the Liberal Party was in such a parlous state. It is in crisis. It has no money, no modern campaign infrastructure and few experienced personnel. Like all disasters, this one has taken years to build up. So degraded is the organisational wing, it threatens dire consequences for the Turnbull government. She has forlorn hopes for the Liberal Party. Google.
    /opinion/columnists/niki-savva/tony-nutts-successor-must-rescue-liberals-from-crisis/news-story/ea6108a4466de9b09cd0e17997b001d4
    Turnbull is killing the Great Barrier Reef while keeping Australia “shackled to dirty and outdated coal technology for decades to come” and making us pay for it. RenewEconomy’s Sophie Vorrath reports.
    https://independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/australia-is-now-paying-for-adanis-dirty-coal-to-kill-our-reef2,10198

  12. Section 2 . . .

    If you use Microsoft Word it is advisable to install an update pronto.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/technology/consumer-security/microsoft-moves-quickly-to-patch-fully-exploiting-zeroday-word-bug-20170412-gvj8xg.html
    Professor John Warhurst looks at negative gearing and the spin term “mum and dad investors”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/negative-gearing-the-common-good-and-the-political-reality-20170412-gvjenk.html
    This AFR article says that if prices continue to leap along at double-digit rates, pushing household debt-to-income ratios further above their current record levels of around 190 per cent – then the chances of a nasty financial reckoning become more likely. Google.
    /real-estate/first-do-no-harm–australias-housing-debate-heads-towards-a-dead-end-20170411-gvih7j
    Tony Fitzgerald writes that a substantial number of people regard ethics and empathy as barriers to success and many politicians are in that category. In this good contribution he says that political ethics is an oxymoron.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/politicians-with-a-winning-at-all-costs-mentality-are-damaging-australia-20170411-gvif0c.html
    Ross Gittins laments the demise of the local school as a focal point of local communities. It’s a very good article.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-local-school-is-in-decline-and-stratification-is-to-blame-20170411-gvibu8.html
    Rather a disconcerting experience on QF9 last week .
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/aviation/qantas-midair-incident-injures-15-on-flight-from-melbourne-to-hong-kong-20170412-gvjz5k.html
    Are Trump and Putin falling out of love (or whatever it was)?
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/usrussia-relations-have-degraded-during-trumps-presidency-vladimir-putin-20170412-gvjy2x.html
    Yes, Woolworths, we all believe you!
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/woolworths-making-cents-of-a-simpler-shop-20170412-gvjn12.html
    And it’s porridge for a NSW Liberal councillor and ex-mayor. He’s gone down for seven months but it won’t necessarily be in jail,
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/ryde-liberal-councillor-artin-etmekdjian-gets-sevenmonth-sentence-over-taxation-probe-20170412-gvjpez.html
    United Airlines has succeeded in scraping off the last bit of gloss of air travel.
    http://www.traveller.com.au/united-airlines-passenger-removed-airlines-have-become-their-own-worst-enemies-gvjn7u

  14. Section 3 . . .

    Public servants at Centrelink, Medicare and Child Support will up the stakes in their long-running fight with the Department of Human Services over pay and conditions, starting two weeks of rolling strikes on Thursday.
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/public-service/dhs-staff-escalate-pay-fight-with-two-weeks-strike-action-20170412-gvjmpc.html
    48 Australians who earned more than $1m in 2014-5 payed zero tax it has been revealed. And, of course, payed no Medicare levy. They deserve civic awards! And there has been a strong growth in the number of landlords with six or more properties.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/apr/12/forty-eight-australians-who-earned-more-than-1m-in-2014-15-paid-no-income-tax
    Eddie Obeid is still trying to get out of jail. Money must be no object.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/eddie-obeid-appeal-lawyers-seek-opinion-of-upper-house-president-20170412-gvjhrc.html
    Accompanied by lots of mealy mouthed justification the Berejiklian government has announced it will lease the state’s 150-year-old land titles registry to Hastings Funds Management and First State Super, after accepting their bid of $2.6 billion.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-land-titles-registry-leased-for-26-billion-to-hastings-funds-management-first-state-super-20170412-gvjcfw.html
    A group of global institutions, including the World Bank, has told the Turnbull government that containing the effects of climate change must be a central pillar of Australia’s new foreign policy.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/climate-change-curbs-must-be-central-to-foreign-policy-global-institutions-tell-australia-20170412-gvj82b.html
    In a desperate bid to sort out its fractious IT systems the ATO will shut them down all over Easter to give technicians a free rein to sort it out before 2017 tax time hits. The stakes are very high!
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/public-service/atos-easter-resurrection-will-makeorbreak-tax-time-2017-20170412-gvj826.html
    Turnbull has moved to shut down the unruly public debate over letting first-home buyers raid their superannuation, saying the issue had gone “round and round”. Another little slap at Morrison.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-shuts-down-mp-debate-on-super-for-housing-deposits-20170412-gvjk18.html
    There is a quite a stench around the Adani coal project.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/adani-boast-casts-doubt-on-1b-coal-project-loan-as-new-footage-shows-abbot-point-spill-damage-20170412-gvjt5e.html
    As TPG enters the fray bigly Elizabeth Knight heralds an upcoming mobile communication price war.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/tpg-to-fight-telstra-vodafone-and-optus-for-your-mobile-phone-20170412-gvjeb6.html
    Lots of letters to the SMH editor criticising the NSW government’s continued caving in to Fred Nile over the non-offering of ethics classes in lieu of “Special Religious”Education”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-letters/time-for-a-lesson-on-ethics-in-schools-20170412-gvjav4.html

  15. Section 4 . . . with Cartoon Corner

    How social media are becoming the “third person” in relationship breakdowns.
    http://www.smh.com.au/wa-news/constance-hall-when-social-media-is-the-third-person-in-your-relationship-breakdown-20170412-gvjdvf.html

    Alan Moir and the hapless Morrison.

    Broelman cruels Turnbull over Adani coal.

    Some disturbing work here from David Rowe as us uses the United Airlines experience.

    And he also has a crack at the Adani coal negotiations.

    David Pope has Morrison as the Easter Bunny.

    Andrew Dyson and the dream of home ownership.

    Poor Sean Spicer. Mark Knight looks at his education.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/a666fbc070defde9bbcf84b57ff78ac0?width=1024
    And Jon Kudelka also has fun at Spicer’s expense.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/f51ff5e3e61405f158a755263bf43a66

  19. I’ve lost track – have Spicer and Bannon been fired, are going to be fired, or just cautioned, or what?

    Is there a list somewhere of those who have been fired by Trump, are about to be, or are at risk of being fired?

  20. Morning all and thanks BK. Some well written articles this morning, but for me there is one where there is no mystery – why the Coalition keeps bad policy.
    “Nick O’Malley can’t work out why the government continues to be wedded to so many bad policies.”
    As Keating said, in any race, always back the horse called self- interest. Most of cabinet are self-interested careerists. Why do they not act on negative gearing? Because it would reduce their own financial benefits from their own negative geared properties. That is all the explanation you need. Same for tax cuts, not closing loopholes, and political donations. Pure greed. The rest is justification and excuses.

  21. The media, including the Guardian, seem to be taking Trump’s break-up with Putin seriously. The ‘Syrian gassing’ appears to be part of an orchestrated plan to create a faux-tiff between Don and Vlad for public consumption. Behind the scenes it is business as usual.

  22. Good morning all,

    Interesting day ahead for Turnbull. No wonder he was very circumspect with his knockdown of the super for house deposit policy bubbling around in the coalition. He has no idea whether he will be made to support it in the budget or the numbers are there to block it. It will all depend on what Cormann and Dutton support. Great way to run a government.

    I am also very interested in the reasoning behind the forceful pushback by Shorten and labor against the $900 million loan application by Adani. Yes, Shorten has made it clear in the past that while labor supports the mine it had doubts re the loan but the last couple of days have seen the strongest language yet re labor opposition. I think labor has played this well do far. I see no reason to jump up and down opposing the mine when there is a very good chance it will fall over by itself . No reason to blow any political capital in regional Queensland opposing the mine when commercial reality can do the job for you. However, the forceful rebuttal of the need for the loan to Adani makes me wonder if Shorten has some inside information and or whether he and labor have picked up a thread or below the surface vibe while in the area over the last two weeks. Shorten is a very good strategic thinker with great political nous so this obvious ramping up of rhetoric opposing the loan has me very interested in what is actually in the wind re Adani and its loan.

    The other obvious take on all this is I need to get a life and stop looking at things that are not there !

    Anyway, in case I am not around got the rest of the day, happy Easter to all.

    Cheers.

  23. There are so many layers to this Trump imbroglio. The recent relevations re the Saipan Casino is interesting. I will link some reports re same.

  24. Also note how flat the Greens are – except in Vic where they seem to be in decline & SA where they are slowly coming back after a decline.
    You would have to say they are not really winning too many more people to their ‘brand’ than they already have.

  25. Sonar

    It is all Kabuki theatre. I don’t believe anything Trump says.

    Meanwhile this Saipan Casino connection is intriguing. Check out who is on board….

    Its board members include James Woolsey, who ran the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency in the early 1990s and was among national-security advisers to Trump’s presidential campaign. Former FBI director Louis Freeh and Ed Rendell, a former Pennsylvania governor and Democratic National Committee chairman, sit on an advisory committee, as does Haley Barbour, the ex-Mississippi governor and Republican National Committee chairman who’s now a prominent lobbyist.

  27. And the very same James Woolsley was involved in exposing Mike Flynn and the Turkish kidnapping imbroglio. Hmmm……

    Retired Army Lt. Gen. Mike Flynn, while serving as an adviser to the Trump campaign, met with top Turkish government ministers and discussed removing a Muslim cleric from the U.S. and taking him to Turkey, according to former Central Intelligence Agency Director James Woolsey, who attended, and others who were briefed on the meeting.

    The discussion late last summer involved ideas about how to get Fethullah Gulen, a cleric whom Turkey has accused of orchestrating last summer’s failed military coup, to Turkey without going through the U.S. extradition legal process, according to Mr. Woolsey and those who were briefed.

  28. don Thursday, April 13, 2017 at 7:25 am
    I’ve lost track – have Spicer and Bannon been fired, are going to be fired, or just cautioned, or what?
    Is there a list somewhere of those who have been fired by Trump, are about to be, or are at risk of being fired?

    *********************************************
    Don, there was a rumour the other day that Bannon, Priebus and Spicer were all on Trumps ‘to sack ‘ list …….. there seems to been some love-in between Bannon and SIL Kushner, who supposedly were at war with each other but Donald told them to kiss and make-up at his latest Golf Weekend House Party at Miami….

  30. Tony Fitzgerald has a similar view to me of what motivates cabinet to keep bad policy.
    “Politics today is a clash of interests, not ideas. The established parties, which receive large sums of public money to finance their campaigns, are controlled by professional, “whatever it takes” politicians driven by self-interest and ideology and addicted to vested interest funding. ”
    Fitzgerald does not discriminate between Liberal and Labor (or PHON or Family First or Green) MPs in this judgement. In my experience he is right about that too. I have met some good Labor MPs but also some creeps, asa well as too many that think the latter are justifiable as long as they are loyal to the cause.

    Have a good day all and a happy long weekend. Remember the true, original, pagan meaning of easter, and eat some easter eggs 🙂

  31. Good Morning

    Socrates.

    The correct phrase is holiday eggs. Guaranteed to rile Dutton. Abetz Hanson Bernadi Christensen Lyle Shelton and sundry others 🙂

  34. Morning all. Thanks BK for today’s round up.

    Greg Sheridan says Trump has made a series of declarations and moves that suggest the world is closer to a hot encounter on the Korean Peninsula than it has been for decades.

    This is scaring the bejebus out of me. So much for Trump the safer pair of hands.

  35. Doyley,

    The Adani mine has become proxy war for the right side of politics. A political football game for which climate change deniers will come away with a big win over their opponents, justify their impertinent positions and give the left/Greens/scientists a black eye.

    So they are coming out aggressively trying to take out the oppositions best player with swinging arms and dirty elbows. But as everyone knows, that will only lead to penalties and being sent to the sin bin.

    Meanwhile Shorten, is scheming around the ruck and finding holes everywhere. His team is finding no trouble absorbing the Government attacks and waiting for them to wear themselves down.

    A very good strategy in this high stakes game I would say.

  36. Confessions

    As Victoria constantly says the sooner Trump goes the better. Pence may terrible in many ways however his silence during this period is very telling.

    I suspect he is busy planning his administration at the moment. I think Pence will be a terrible President but I doubt he will drag the US into a war with the major powers with all the danger that portends as Trump is. At least not by accident.

  38. phoenixred @ #28 #28 Thursday, April 13, 2017 at 7:49 am

    don Thursday, April 13, 2017 at 7:25 am
    I’ve lost track – have Spicer and Bannon been fired, are going to be fired, or just cautioned, or what?
    Is there a list somewhere of those who have been fired by Trump, are about to be, or are at risk of being fired?
    *********************************************
    Don, there was a rumour the other day that Bannon, Priebus and Spicer were all on Trumps ‘to sack ‘ list …….. there seems to been some love-in between Bannon and SIL Kushner, who supposedly were at war with each other but Donald told them to kiss and make-up at his latest Golf Weekend House Party at Miami….

    Thanks PR.

  39. guytaur:

    Yep I agree that Trump needs to be gone. I’ve never subscribed to the ‘Pence is the real danger’ theory simply because he at least has governing experience and isn’t the chaotic and dysfunction that is Trump.

  42. Desert Qlder

    I read that the Unions are backing the mine so that Shorten has a problem. Unfortunate.
    So Barnaby thinks Adani mine will solve the housing problem? That seems too much to swallow – does he think everyone will move to Qld?


  44. A picture of the Abbot Point coal loading facility showing coal water run-off moving north-west into the wetlands and coal dust on the beaches. Photo: Dean Sewell

  45. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/12/french-presidential-election-surge-far-left-candidate-melenchon

    A dramatic seven-point surge by the wildcard leftwing veteran Jean-Luc Mélenchon appears to be holding, unexpectedly turning France’s roller-coaster presidential race into a possible four-way contest.

    Barely 10 days from the first round of voting on 23 April, the independent centrist Emmanuel Macron and far-right leader Marine Le Pen, both with 23-24% of the vote, are still favourites to go through to the run-off round.

    But Mélenchon, an acid-tongued political showman with a radical tax-and-spend platform, is now just five or six points behind. Some recent polls have placed him third, ahead of the scandal-hit centre-right candidate, François Fillon.

  46. This CNN article notes that “Trump’s saber-rattling is North Korea’s propaganda dream come true”. On the other hand, the article reckons South Koreans are alert but not alarmed at this stage, as they have been for years.

    North Korea is a country prepared for conflict.

    Still technically at war with its southern neighbor, ordinary North Koreans are warned to be in a state of constant vigilance to threats from the outside, particularly from the US.

    Those fears seemed to be confirmed this month, after US President Donald Trump launched a surprise strike on a Syrian airfield and dispatched a naval battle group — which he described as “an armada” — to northern Asia.

    Trump’s saber-rattling — he has accused Pyongyang of “looking for trouble” — is familiar to consumers of North Korean state media, who have been warned for decades by their leaders of imminent US attack and attempted regime change.

    http://edition.cnn.com/2017/04/12/asia/north-korea-trump-propaganda-syria/index.html

  48. Desert Qlder,

    I would say you are spot on with your analysis.

    I do enjoy the way Shorten operates re strategy and the way labor has become much more astute under his leadership.

    Shorten has great political nous and is constantly underestimated by the government and the MSM. That is why I am very intrigued by his approach to the Adani loan and I will be a very interested observer as it all unfolds.

    Anyway, time for me to get out and about.

    Cheers.

  49. Joyce sees the adani mine as a panacea for the housing crisis.

    This project is obviously so important that I expect by the weekend JBishop will declare there will be peace in the Middle East if only we can get the mine built.

    Funny how such an allegedly wise and astute businessman as Turnbull can’t see that the people behind this project are dodgy at best and quite possibly serious corporate crooks.

    I wouldn’t lend them air in a bottle, much less a billion to build a rail line.

  50. Confessions

    A lot of voters are like me. So scared of what the LNP will do if they remain in government voting Labor in the lower house is the only sane option.

    Getting the LNP out so they can self destruct in faction wars in opposition and be no danger to the country while they do it.

    Labor is listening to the science unlike the LNP who are still in full on promote Coal mode.

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