BludgerTrack quarterly breakdown: March 2017

A closer look at federal polling trends at state level, as Labor surges in Western Australia as One Nation loses some of its lustre.

Below is a detailed look at what the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is picking up at state level, enhanced now with Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns, to add to the unpublished breakdowns provided by Essential Research and a few scattered results from Galaxy, ReachTEL and Ipsos. Of greatest note are the state election-fuelled blowout to Labor in Western Australia, and the apparent downturn for One Nation over the past month or two, not just in Western Australia but also in Queensland.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,002 comments on “BludgerTrack quarterly breakdown: March 2017”

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  1. Trump is hamstrung from doing too much damage in the short term by the institutions the US has in place to restrict such a populist (excluding going to war, unfortunately). Long term, I reckon Trump is good for US democracy (with the caveat that he doesnt use the codes).

    Pence, however, is wily enough (and has a sizeable base that is not reliant on fickle populism) to do significant long term damage to the fabric of society. He could easily win a second term and perhaps appoint 2 or even 3 SCOTUS justices.

  2. Remember the true, original, pagan meaning of easter,

    A pagan Spring fertility feast, hence the eggs and rabbits. In the Southern hemisphere, we should be holding it in March / April, maybe around the end of the NRL/AFL season.

    At this time of year in Sydeny, if our festivals had been locally developed, we would be celebrating the Festival of the Rain God, with prayers, entreaties and burnt offerings begging him to go away.

  3. After watching Bananaby’s presser this morning, I’m rapidly coming to the conclusion that government funding for Adani’s rail line is actually just a smokescreen.

    He stated that the rail line will not only benefit Adani, but also other miners in that region. Two of the mines in that region are both owned by Gina Rinehart. Adani is being used to cover up using taxpayer’s money to help Rinehart.

    Another reason, as if there weren’t enough already, of the need for a Federal ICAC.

  4. 6 December 2016: http://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/adani-carmichael-mine-drilling-into-the-numbers-for-queensland-20161206-gt4t8n.html

    Adani said the rail line and port facilities had the potential to “assist the development of other proposed mines in the Galilee Basin”.

    “The rail will be an open access infrastructure to support other coal mines in Galilee and Bowen Basin and will be a growth engine for the economy of the Queensland State of Australia,” Adani Australia’s website reads.

    Queensland Labor is on board.

  5. greensborough growler @ #33 Thursday, April 13, 2017 at 8:01 am

    David Oldfield unleashes on Hanson and One nation.
    http://www.news.com.au/entertainment/tv/radio/one-nation-cofounder-david-oldfield-says-one-nation-has-become-a-cult/news-story/78e3442e222172b13bc2100824029510

    Attached to the article is a video of Hansen going on about halal certified Easter eggs.

    One of her major criticisms of Muslims is they don’t integrate and join in with our cultural traditions.

    Doesn’t the halal certification encourage and highlight the ability of Muslims to take part in cultural elements of Easter in the same way that other non-Christians do?

  6. Jacqui Lambie did an interview with A Current Affair last night. Asked about One Nation. Said wtte that she believes it is going to die off within six to 12 months. Also that Shorten would be next PM. She has always worked well with him, but she can work well with either Shorten or Turnbull.

  7. BK

    easy to see why daretotread departed the blog in a real hurry. even on an anonymous blog, it is difficult to face humilitation of being so Wrong

  8. I love the idea that the Greens are having “Factional Brawls”. I’m not convinced the people claiming this know what a brawl is.

    For example, someone coming out and saying “I have a difference in policy, and think we need to focus more on ______” is not a brawl. It is a discussion.

    Labor left and right have different opinions on many things, but they aren’t brawling. Nor are the Greens.

    The only factions brawling at the moment are the Liberals, with leaks, undermining, attacking the other faction’s policies (distinct from boosting ones own).

  9. meanwhile after being outed as having a FISA warrant on him. Carter Page did an interview.
    and Malcolm Nance has some thoughts on this……….

    Malcolm Nance Retweeted
    Chris Sampson‏ @TAPSTRIMEDIA 25m25 minutes ago
    More
    From @MalcolmNance – #carterpage is using resistance techniques in his interviews. Malcolm is the master of this topic.
    17 replies 90 retweets 210 likes
    Reply 17 Retweet 90
    Like 210
    Malcolm Nance‏Verified account @MalcolmNance 2h2 hours ago
    More
    Replying to @MalcolmNance
    @CNN @jaketapper interview of Carter Page leads me to wonder if he is a FBI double agent. Arrogance smacks of ‘I know something you don’t.’

  10. Q. If there is one of Gina’s mines that would benefit from Adani rail line, why doesn’t she lend the money?
    A. Why should she, when she has her friend Barnaby working for her?

  11. Just for a morning laugh – Dana Milbank in the “Washington Post” just posted online, talking about Sean Spicer’s misuse of English – says

    “In his brain he knows Canada’s prime minister is Justin Trudeau and Australia’s is Gordon Turnbull, but from his mouth comes “Joe Trudeau” and “Gordon Trumbull.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-unforgivable-mistake-sean-spicer-makes-every-day/2017/04/12/5362e3d6-1faf-11e7-ad74-3a742a6e93a7_story.html?utm_term=.2b0090dea39c

    ‘Gordon’ is obviously making a big impression in Washington!

  12. Peg and Darn

    Labor’s position was brought forward in the caucus room on Tuesday by the shadow attorney general, Mark Dreyfus, and the Indigenous MP Patrick Dodson. It is understood Dodson argued that the ILUA process of seeking majority support from members of a claim group must remain intact.

    Dreyfus told caucus that Labor needed to be very clear that its position was about native title, and the law’s impact on traditional owners, rather than the future prospects of mining projects.

    The headline is a little deceptive, according to the text.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/mar/21/labor-to-support-native-title-changes-to-protect-mining-deals

  13. We can rely on Greg Jericho to lift the lid on negative gearing. He proves that the ATO day supports the proposition that negative gearing benefits the rich the most.

    Ross Greenwood, the 3aw financial guru was rabbiting on last night on his show about a study from the Grattan Institute that allegedly shows that it is not the rich who mostly benefit but ordinary every day people – the ‘pillars of our society” he called them. I called bullshit the moment I heard it and I’m very glad to see this tax evidence today that shows he was talking rubbish.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2017/apr/13/the-latest-tax-data-proves-it-negative-gearing-benefits-the-rich-the-most

  14. Victoria, DTT turned wRONg into an artform.

    She probably eclipsed The Australian, the Coalition, and the entire Republican party in the ability to be completely unaffected by reality. It was Daliesq in it’s surrealism.

    Beautiful work from a real talent.

  15. Pegasus
    Thursday, April 13, 2017 at 9:55 am
    Darn

    https://www.greenleft.org.au/content/fight-against-adani-steps-notch

    The federal Labor Party decided on March 21 to tip the scales dramatically in favour of Adani’s $22 billion coalmine in Queensland when it agreed to support the Coalition’s bid to weaken native title in favour of the corporations

    .

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/mar/21/labor-to-support-native-title-changes-to-protect-mining-deals
    Peg
    I can only repeat. No-one here wants Adani to go ahead. So I’m not sure what you are trying to achieve with posts like that.

    We all know what’s going on politically and some of it we don’t like. But we have no influence whatever over what the Labor party does or doesn’t do – any more than you have any influence over what the Greens do or don’t do.

  16. rocket rocket @ #78 Thursday, April 13, 2017 at 10:02 am

    Just for a morning laugh – Dana Milbank in the “Washington Post” just posted online, talking about Sean Spicer’s misuse of English – says
    “In his brain he knows Canada’s prime minister is Justin Trudeau and Australia’s is Gordon Turnbull, but from his mouth comes “Joe Trudeau” and “Gordon Trumbull.”
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-unforgivable-mistake-sean-spicer-makes-every-day/2017/04/12/5362e3d6-1faf-11e7-ad74-3a742a6e93a7_story.html?utm_term=.2b0090dea39c
    ‘Gordon’ is obviously making a big impression in Washington!

    Maybe Gordon is the side of Turnbull that contained some element of an ethical base.

    Malcolm, his shallow, egotistical side, exiled Gordon to the harbour side attic thus enabling him to obtain the Prime Minister gig. 🙂

  17. Darn @ #80 Thursday, April 13th, 2017 – 10:08 am

    He proves that the ATO day supports the proposition that negative gearing benefits the rich the most.

    There shouldn’t even be a debate on that subject. The fact that there is implies that someone (or more) is being very intellectually dishonest. It’s intuitively obvious that:

    – Lower-income and impoverished people can’t afford even one house, so do not benefit from negative gearing at all.
    – Middle-class people will struggle under the weight of two houses (or in some cases, under the weight of one house), and if smart would not put themselves under a loss-making investment in the hopes of getting a tax break, so they get little to no benefit from negative gearing.
    – Rich people can afford multiple investment properties and will have incomes that both 1) place them in the top tax bracket and 2) provide an adequate cushion/buffer against loss-making investment. Which gives them both ability and incentive to aggressively (and safely) pursue the strategy. So they get the most benefit from it.

    It should surprise nobody that a benefit which requires a significant amount of wealth to access primarily benefits the wealthy. It was designed that way.

  18. Can’t they do anything right, ie fairly?

    Wayne Swan‏Verified account @SwannyQLD · 2h2 hours ago

    Joyce’s behaviour on flood relief is disgraceful. Labor handled 2011 & 2013 in a bipartisan way. Joyce is unfit for high office #auspol

  19. Stating the bleeding obvious I know but the reason why people with investment properties have taxable incomes below $80k is because they take advantage of negative gearing.
    Wonder what the gross income is of the people who own four or five properties.
    I don’t doubt that there a police and nurses and teachers who take advantage of the system but for different reasons.

    My late brother was a police officer and rented his city house while he served a stint in the country. That didn’t make him one of Morrison’s “mum and dad investors”.

  20. http://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/conservation/griffith-universitys-head-of-science-says-govt-energy-policy-risks-catastrophe/news-story/f7cf7b285a7e9e5fdba0457d28591997

    UNLESS the Australian government fully embraces renewable energy and moves to decarbonise our energy supply in line with the Paris Climate Agreement, parts of Australia like Burke and Alice Springs will become unlivable in our lifetime.

    That’s the warning from the highly decorated head of the School of Science at Griffith University, and former president of the Australian Conservation Foundation, Professor Ian Lowe.

    As public debate rages over the potential opening of the Adani coal mine in Carmichael, Queensland, Prof Lowe believes the government’s dedication to fossil fuels is taking the country in a troubling direction.

    Speaking to news.com.au he worried that the government’s intention to not only open up the controversial Carmichael coal mine but also open up the Galilee basin will “effectively guarantee the frying of the planet”.

    “If we continue to expand fossil fuels — which is what things like opening up the Galilee Basin means — by 2050 the average global temperature will be at least two degrees more,” he said.

    Under such a scenario, he expects parts of inland Australia to see average temperature rises that would make them virtually unlivable by the second half of the century.

  21. ‘A dramatic seven-point surge by the wildcard leftwing veteran Jean-Luc Mélenchon appears to be holding, unexpectedly turning France’s roller-coaster presidential race into a possible four-way contest.’
    One assumes that Mélenchon’s historic role will mirror that of Sanders.
    The latter sacrificed us to the Moloch of Trump.
    The former will deliver France into the hands of Le Pen.
    Merde for brains.

  22. Darn, I wonder if there is a little intentional confusion being created by the negative gearing benefactors. I suspect the Greenwood would be referring to the number of poorer people being higher than the number of rich investors. However, the rich investors with multiple houses would be the greater beneficiaries in monetary terms.

    I know people who are by no means rich benefiting from negative gearing. In one case they bought a house they wanted to retire in but we’re not ready to retire for a couple of years. They rented it out while sorting out their lives for retirement and organising the sale of the original house. Another was a young worker who bought a house to live eventually, but was living with her parents while trying to get the mortgage down a little before flying the parental coup. They recieved some benefit from NG, but the rich investor on a high salary with 5 houses would be getting the greatest tax break.

  23. Barnaby Joyce wants the Qld government to become competent:
    “The Queensland government needs to “get competent” and submit a proper application for disaster relief funding for farmers and small businesses hit by Cyclone Debbie, acting Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce says.
    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/qld-farmers-still-waiting-for-disaster-funds-as-governments-argue-over-paperwork-20170412-gvk2qj.html
    A man who moved a Federal department to Armidale and forced it to have meetings at McDonalds probably can’t see the irony. Voters might not see the funny side though, especially considering this comparison:
    “In 2013 the then-Newman Liberal National Party state government applied to the federal government for category C funding following severe flooding in parts of the state, notably around the Bundaberg region.

    The Gillard government noted there was insufficient information to support the application, but granted category C funds on the basis of helping affected communities.”

    So the much maligned Gillard government did more to assist Qld rural flood victims than the Nationals in government.

  24. Lets not forget Gillards 2011 flood levy and Xenephons issues with taxpayers forking out to a state that hadnt bothered to insure itself properly.

    And the fact the Nationals opposed it.

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