BludgerTrack: 53.4-46.6 to Labor

One Nation back inside single figures, in an otherwise uneventful reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

NOTE: Apologies for the ongoing situation with the formatting in comments. This is not intentional and the former state of affairs will be restored, hopefully soon.

This week’s BludgerTrack reading records a dip in support for One Nation that brings them back inside double figures, but is otherwise essentially unchanged since last week. However, I am not including Ipsos at this stage, as the peculiarities of its two results (extremely high results for the Greens, a radically different result on two-party preferred from one result to the next) are such that it’s just bringing noise to the model. However, it has been included for leadership ratings, which this week record a mild improvement for Malcolm Turnbull.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,051 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.4-46.6 to Labor”

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  1. C@Tmomma
    I read that earlier on today and thought it a very interesting take on Trump supporters. Writers of dystopian fiction often have a better take on what people who view cruelty as ‘normal’ are like.
    It’s as though “The Walking Dead” is the current narrative for a lot of the world today.

  4. Pretty much, Croatian is pretty close too. Slovenian has Slavic roots but being so close to Austria it is drastically different to other Southern Slavs languages.

    Serbian alphabet is Cyrillic like Russian but unlike Russian it is phonetic

  8. ‘fess,
    Yes it’s usually the artists, in whatever field, that fatally weaken the demagogues and dictators the best, on behalf of the rest of us.

  9. Soc

    Jennifer Westacott, the chief executive of the Business Council of Australia said programs like this help prevent “departments becoming siloed from the real economy”.

    Maybe Jennifer Westacott should try a stint in the APS then – having to administer some program that actually delivers some sort of service while at the same time having to come up with some useful improvements to its delivery.

    No doubt when you are jumping from whatever point your 20 or so financial sponsors think is important to them at the time and making portentous statements about it at every chance the idea of having to maintain and seek to improve an actual delivered service is very remote.

  12. You need to listen very carefully to what Annasatcia says about it.

    When she met the Adani guy recently she was very careful to say wtte “Adani have assured me they have the finance available”. She has previously said that no Qld government money will be available and that it has to be commercially viable. The government have also been careful to stick to the letter of the law on approvals etc and have not fast tracked anything.

    The only thing that might get it over the line would be if the Federal Government pitches in the $1B the company has a asked for but I think even our current Federal Government is going to eventually balk at a project like this. Without government aid it is simply not financially viable. Even if it does go ahead, it will have to be run on an almost totally automated basis to get its costs down and in that case the intention of Adani will actually be to put a lot of other more costly coal miners around the world out of business. Growing the total international market for high quality steaming coal is a forlorn hope I think.

  13. @ Confessions

    Clear the cookies and cache from your browser history, then refresh the page. I’m using Chrome and that got it working for me.

  15. Yes it’s usually the artists, in whatever field, that fatally weaken the demagogues and dictators the best, on behalf of the rest of us.

    Yep, how often do we remark that the cartoonists do a much better and more precise job of exposing the political reality than the press gallery journalists?

    Maybe also why conservative demagogues loathe artists in general.

  18. Socrates

    You are expecting Rupert’s curious snail to announce a connection between climate change and increased flood frequency?! Don’t hold your breath. And Labor is too intimidated and in such a precarious political position that it won’t mention such a connection. This is obvious from their equivacol attitude to Adani.

  20. ‘fess,
    Maybe also why conservative demagogues loathe artists in general.

    Which is why it is so sad to see the formally good ones, like Bill Leak, sell their souls.

  23. If instead of the “39 minutes” ago we had a time stamp (the info must be there otherwise the interval could not be calculated) the sit would be close to OK.
    And if the gravatars were reestablished it would just about do it. The icing on the cake would be a button to flip top/bottom view.

  25. This new format is complete crap. I emailed Crikey to complain and got a response asking me to be patient, which I’ll give a couple more days.

    The things that shit me are: no use of test site before implementation, which has happened several times and demonstrates management incompetence; comments run newest to oldest making it very difficult to follow conversations; its a relatively high volume thread which makes reading older comments a complete pain because there is only “load more”, not page numbers, and; the “reply” function is useless on a high volume thread because it doesn’t bump the comment back up and even if it did, it would make things confusing re-reading things.

    The gerbils would be better off taking inspiration from Musram (sp?) and implementing his CCCP changes. All in all, the site worked just fine before with CCCP. The gerbils need to restore last week’s settings and go back to the drawing board. Then whatever manager (probably someone’s significant other, family member or good friend) needs to be sacked for gross incompetence, this is the latest of many times they’ve implemented changes without running them though the test environment first. No competent IT person would be foolish enough to do that. If resources are a problem, then leave the site alone, it was working just fine before.

  29. .
    Grimace:
    Circa 8.40 pm

    The gerbils would be better off taking inspiration from Musram (sp?) and implementing his CCCP changes. All in all, the site worked just fine before with CCCP. The gerbils need to restore last week’s settings and go back to the drawing board. Then whatever manager (probably someone’s significant other, family member or good friend) needs to be sacked for gross incompetence, this is the latest of many times they’ve implemented changes without running them though the test environment first. No competent IT person would be foolish enough to do that. If resources are a problem, then leave the site alone, it was working just fine before.

    I agree with all of that.

    However I think that PB is not sufficiently isolated from the rest of Crikey.

    Thus, when they do something on Crikey, there are unintended (I hope!) consequences here.

    Thus they change the global settings, which totally stuffs up the PB settings.

    This last change appears to have completely wiped out the format they had earlier.

    PB needs to be a totally isolated site, a stand-alone site, with just ordinary html links to the main Crikey site.

  30. That’s why you use a test environment.

    I’m doing all the testing for a new budgeting, forecasting and construction project financial reporting system at my casual job at the moment. Its a painful, tedious, tremendously boring and critically important job, and we’re following a carefully designed development, testing and roll out plan.

  34. Rossmcg
    “I am sure all the workers affected by industrial diseases were comforted by the knowledge that even though they might be dying or severely disabled or just ill, at least they had a job”

    It was reported just before Gannon , a West Aussie, took up his post as head of the AM, that he was good friends with Mathias Corman and Julie Bishop and that he thought working with the Federal Government was more effective than the approach of the previous President that was more confrontational. You can always tell something about a person by the company they keep so it is clear this AMA president will probably be pushing the coalition line whenever he can and whenever his members let him get away with it.

  37. Falcon

    The previous guy was ‘difficult’ at times.

    The new one pretended and postured a bit on small things and then …

  40. A Mal and Scomo led resurgence!! Not. 🙂

    Hmmm…..the narrative from now will be that the Budget has to be a reset and good governance starts from………well………..sometime soonish.

  41. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll/newspoll-labor-gains-ground-against-coalition/news-story/ea2f0e137364713c87fc32c5489f3d3e

    Newspoll: Labor gains ground against Coalition
    The Australian 9:45PM April 2, 2017
    David Crowe Political correspondent Canberra

    Labor has gained ground against the Coalition to post another clear lead in the latest Newspoll, putting it ahead by 53 to 47 per cent in two-party terms after weeks of dispute over penalty rates, racial hatred laws and company tax cuts.

    The latest Newspoll, conducted exclusively for The Australian, shows the Coalition’s primary vote has fallen from 37 to 36 per cent over the last two weeks.

    Labor increased its primary vote from 35 to 36 per cent after campaigning vigorously against a Fair Work Australia decision to scale back Sunday penalty rates and calling in recent days for an increase in the minimum wage.

    In a significant shift, Bill Shorten has narrowed the gap against Malcolm Turnbull as preferred prime minister.

    Mr Turnbull leads by 41 to 32 per cent as better prime minister, compared to 43 to 29 per cent in the Newspoll taken two weeks ago, soon after the Prime Minister unveiled plans to expand the Snowy Mountains power scheme.

    Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has kept its hold on 10 per cent of voters to match the support shown for the Greens, who improved their primary vote to 10 per cent from 9 per cent two weeks ago.

    ……………..

    While many of the changes in this Newspoll are within the margin of error, the Coalition and Mr Turnbull lost ground on all three of the key indicators reported here. The results are based on 1708 interviews, with a maximum sampling error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points.

    The Greens improved their primary vote from 9 to 10 per cent, in line with the long-term trend in Newspoll results.

    Senator Hanson’s party kept its primary vote steady at 10 per cent, the same level seen in the previous two Newspolls despite speculation about a softening in One Nation’s support given its mixed results in the Western Australian state election.

  44. ‘Totally’: Trump says he has a secret plan to ‘solve North Korea’ — without China’s help

    President Donald Trump insisted over the weekend that he did not need China’s help to end the conflict between North and South Korea.

    “China has great influence over North Korea,” Trump explained. “And China will either decide to help us with North Korea, or they won’t. And if they do that will be very good for China, and if they don’t it won’t be good for anyone.”

    “Well, if China is not going to solve North Korea, we will,” the president said. “That is all I am telling you.”

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/04/totally-trump-says-he-has-a-secret-plan-to-solve-north-korea-without-chinas-help/

  45. Watergate’s John Dean: ‘Half the population right now isn’t sure whether Trump is insane’

    The former counsel to President Richard Nixon has lashed out at current President Donald Trump, questioning his sanity and saying he’s “happy every morning when I wake up to see he hasn’t blown up some part of the world.”

    “As I see it, about maybe half the population right now isn’t sure whether he is insane or if he’s just a totally angry man, they don’t know what he’s doing,” Dean explained. “About 40 per cent seem to be happy with him and approve of his job and another maybe 10 per cent are pretty confused or don’t care, so it’s very strange over here now.”

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/04/watergates-john-dean-half-the-population-right-now-isnt-sure-whether-trump-is-insane/

  46. McCain: Nunes ‘killed’ bipartisan Russia investigation

    Nunes (R-Calif.) has been under fire for briefing President Donald Trump on secret information he received from White House officials before informing members of the committee. McCain, who has previously called on Nunes to disclose his sources, called the whole episode “bizarre” on ABC’s “This Week.”
    .
    “If we’re really going to get to the bottom of these things, it’s got to be done in a bipartisan fashion,” McCain said. “And as far as I could tell, Congressman Nunes killed that.”

    http://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/mccain-nunes-russia-236793

  47. Gittins not happy.

    I realised Australian government was fast approaching peak fake when I read Laura Tingle of the Financial Review’s revelation that Malcolm Turnbull’s Snowy 2.0 announcement was timed to favourably influence the imminent fortnightly Newspoll result.

    When our leaders progress from being mesmerised by opinion polls to trying to game them, that’s when we know the country’s in deep, deep trouble.

    …It hardly needs saying that Snowy 2.0 was just a stunt, designed to excite the media and portray Turnbull as the great Nation Builder, while being no more than a feasibility study of a scheme that’s probably not feasible, would end up costing at least double what we were told it would and, if it did eventuate, would come years too late to help with the energy crisis.

    http://www.theage.com.au/business/politicians-addicted-to-the-appearance-of-economic-success-20170401-gvbje8.html

  48. It’s now 8am EST.
    Is it the end of Daylight Saving that’s cause this silence, or have we all just given up on PB?

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