BludgerTrack: 53.4-46.6 to Labor

One Nation back inside single figures, in an otherwise uneventful reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

NOTE: Apologies for the ongoing situation with the formatting in comments. This is not intentional and the former state of affairs will be restored, hopefully soon.

This week’s BludgerTrack reading records a dip in support for One Nation that brings them back inside double figures, but is otherwise essentially unchanged since last week. However, I am not including Ipsos at this stage, as the peculiarities of its two results (extremely high results for the Greens, a radically different result on two-party preferred from one result to the next) are such that it’s just bringing noise to the model. However, it has been included for leadership ratings, which this week record a mild improvement for Malcolm Turnbull.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,051 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.4-46.6 to Labor”

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  1. Lizzie,
    I’m with you. I like the fast-paced back and forth of PB. Also, ‘over the road’ has a bit of the ‘cult of personality’ feel about it.

  2. I can see a PhD paper being written on how the formatting/interaction model of a blog encourages or discourages particular political leanings.

    And I can picture you writing it, Player One. 😆

  3. I know you see yourself as very important to this blog but you don’t run the joint!

    Which is an hilarious riposte coming from someone who is trying to tell the rest of us what to do! 😀

  4. Might there be a Newspoll tonight?

    It would be interesting to see how the ‘achievement’ of Tax Cuts for the base of the Liberal Party versus a shocker of a Minimum Wage Submission from the government and their, now, full-throated support for Penalty Rate Cuts, translates.

  5. C@t

    Speaking of The Pub, how do you find the latest posts on that site? There are always a lot of links to old posts by the various members down the right hand side but on the few occasions I have popped in there for a look I’ve never been able to find an operative thread of any kind.

  6. William has looked after us in the past so until he tells us “what we have is what we get” I’m happy to be patient for now.

  7. The navigation model is a bit weird. You go to the latest thread (top of the page, but it may be a few days old) then click on “comments” under the topic itself (e.g. “209 comments”) but you then have to go to the bottom of that thread (repeatedly clicking ‘Newer posts’). If there is an easier way to navigate I have not found it. I go there for BKs morning links if I can’t find them on Crikey.

  8. Darn,
    I get where you are coming from. I thought I was missing something and that there was a way into the labyrinth which I had not noticed. Or maybe it was that I am an ‘idiot weed’ who has been banned and so my presence was not appreciated.

    However, if you have noticed it too, then maybe it’s them not me. 🙂

  9. Darn

    Speaking of The Pub, how do you find the latest posts on that site? There are always a lot of links to old posts by the various members down the right hand side but on the few occasions I have popped in there for a look I’ve never been able to find an operative thread of any kind.

    The navigation model is a bit weird. Find the newest main topic (top of the page, under the header – note that it may be a few days old) then go to the comments below it – there will be a button saying something like “209 comments”. Then go to the bottom of that page and repeatedly hit “newer comments” until you get to the latest ones. If there is an easier way to do it I’m all ears – I have not been able to find one!

  10. davidwh
    William has looked after us in the past so until he tells us “what we have is what we get” I’m happy to be patient for now.

    William appears to have been kept entirely in the dark.
    If a change is planned, it is a good idea to prepare people for it, let them know what the new blog will look like, and hopefully convince them that it will be better.
    None of this appears to have happened.
    It shows a lack of respect for William that he is apparently kept in the dark, and a complete disdain for users of the blog.

  11. The gerbils are probably in the cellar hiding from cyclones and floods Cat. Someone should tell them it’s safe to come out.

  12. Player One
    You beat me to it on navigating at The Pub.
    I do hope William can get Pollbludger back to the old format. As others have noted, it’s difficult to get a sustained discussion going in this format.

  13. Must be something to do with the beginning of April. My twitter feed has forgotten where the page boundaries are and is all over the shop.

  14. Over the road was good for hiding out whilst certain trolls were around. Don’t get many of the nasty ones here anymore though.

  15. bemused
    FWIW, my understanding of William’s comments was that the changes were caused by “glitches”, i.e., not intentional. Could be wrong, of course.

  16. The thing I like about the nested comments, as long as everyone uses the feature when it’s finally sorted out is that if there’s a discussion going on that doesn’t interest you then simply scroll past all the comments until you get to the next subject. IMHO this is where an expand/collapse feature comes in very handy

  17. The intention was there to make changes, but they appear to have stuffed it up and they apparently do not bother testing before inflicting on us.

  18. Perhaps an erroneous time stamp is mixed up in the PB formatting problems. The last few times I posted, my post would appear straight away but the time stamp said it was posted “6 minutes ago”.

  19. Davidwh
    Since you are in Old I am genuinely curious, is there any discussion of the link between the floods and climate change? This makes three major floods in six years, which is remarkable. Increased flood frequency was a predicted consequence of climate change when I first read about it in the late 80s. The other obvious elephant in the room is funding & permiting Adani as the tourism and agriculture industries get hit more and more often.

  20. confessions,
    That crime in Croydon is appalling. It just makes me think that there are politicians who are prepared to profit from taking the easy way to power, and this sort of thing is the sorry side effect.

    I don’t know if you will be interested but Stephen King, the American author, wrote a part commentary piece, part story, about Trump and his supporters for The Guardian. I thought it was a fantastic read:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/apr/01/stephen-king-on-donald-trump-fictional-voters-truth-about-us-election

  21. Hi Socrates. Not much discussion at this stage. It’s probably too soon as people are trying to clean up and get their lives back in some order.

  22. I think that a lot of you don’t realise that Mr Bowe is both a student and a teacher. He is still studying/resdearching for his Phd and he will be taking classes as Lecturer, Tutor and marker. He just cannot spare the time to rule this blog all the time. Long gone are the days when he ran this blog on his own with a few small donations from some posters to help keep Poll Bludger afloat.

    Tom.

  23. I am furious about the Adani mine. It is the most bone headed, backward looking piece of stupidity going.
    If I was in Q’l’d Labor, I’d be doing everything possible to get this reversed.

  24. Good to know. We’ve got a lot of family in the Sunshine Coast, Brisbane and Gold Coast as well as in the direct path of the cyclone. Fortunately all O.K.

  25. I agree on Adani. It will still not win Labor the rural seats, but will cost them dearly everywhere else. So stupid, as well as unethical. The mine is uneconomic, and that was ample grounds to reject it, apart for the climate change ones.

  26. Zoidlord
    I don’t think the change had anything to do with William. He seemed just as surprised as anyone.

  27. C@t:

    Yes I saw the Stephen King column yesterday. He’s also brilliantly trolled Trump on twitter re his ridiculous claims that Obama wiretapped him.

  28. mari:

    As always, so much to see with Rowe. Check out Malcolm’s shadow – the aristocratic top hat is always there!

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