BludgerTrack: 53.4-46.6 to Labor

One Nation back inside single figures, in an otherwise uneventful reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

NOTE: Apologies for the ongoing situation with the formatting in comments. This is not intentional and the former state of affairs will be restored, hopefully soon.

This week’s BludgerTrack reading records a dip in support for One Nation that brings them back inside double figures, but is otherwise essentially unchanged since last week. However, I am not including Ipsos at this stage, as the peculiarities of its two results (extremely high results for the Greens, a radically different result on two-party preferred from one result to the next) are such that it’s just bringing noise to the model. However, it has been included for leadership ratings, which this week record a mild improvement for Malcolm Turnbull.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,051 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.4-46.6 to Labor”

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  1. Impeachment Case Strengthens As One Of Nunes’s Sources Personally Kept On WH Staff By Trump

    The connections to the Russia scandal and the president himself have grown after it was revealed one of Devin Nunes’s sources was personally kept on the White House staff by Donald Trump.

    The pieces are beginning to fit together. Devin Nunes got his information from the White House, but not just from the White House, from a Flynn connected staff member in the White House. It is impossible to believe that the White House is not hiding something as it relates to Russia

    There is evidence growing by the minute of White House/House Republican cover-up. Congress can’t be trusted to investigate this scandal. An independent investigation is the only way that the truth will be uncovered.

    The connections directly to Donald Trump are expanding. When the truth is finally exposed on Russia, impeachment may, and perhaps should be, on the table.

  2. Cyber expert drops Senate intel bombshell: Russia targets Trump with fake news because he’ll repeat it

    A cybersecurity expert testified that Russian “bots” pushed their disinformation campaigns during times when President Donald Trump was likely to be on social media — and he dutifully hyped those conspiracy theories.

  3. ‘Strap in tight’: GOP strategist Rick Wilson connects the dots on the latest Devin Nunes bombshell

    News that Rep. Devin Nunes (R-CA) received intelligence of possible surveillance of Trump administration officials from two people from within the Trump administration rocked the political world on Thursday — and one longtime GOP strategist thinks more explosive revelations are still to come.

  4. Morning bludgers


    The cryptic tweets by Jester yesterday, gave a big clue that things were heating up with the Trump imbroglio!

  5. She has been on the money so far!!

    Claude Taylor Retweeted

    MikeFarb‏ @mikefarb1
    Here’s a shoutout to Louise Mensch. Nailed it again. Spends too much time defending her writing. She is owed a debt of gratitude. Thank you.
    Amy Siskind‏ @Amy_Siskind
    BREAKING: naming names. Two WH officials provided info the Nunes. Inside job!
    Cohen-Watnick and Ellis.

  6. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Mesma has showed her claws and spat at the backbenchers who helped to scuttle the China-Australia extradition treaty.
    Three years of wrangling over a section of Australia’s racial discrimination laws has again amounted to naught after the Senate killed off the Turnbull government’s proposed changes late last night. Bernardi and Brandis slugged it out afterwards. The whole thing wasn’t at all pretty.
    Michelle Grattan reviews another not so good week for Turnbull.
    Sean Nicholls on how Turnbull is becoming Berejiklian’s weak spot.
    John Hewson says that in a political world where winning is just about scoring points, the legitimacy of debates in almost every significant area of public policy has now been undermined by a lack of economic rigour and disciplined analysis.
    A good article from Waleed Aly on the fantasy of a future for coal.
    The head of one of the country’s largest energy utilities has warned the nation’s energy markets risk fracture amid the mounting “uncertainty and inconsistency” of state-based energy targets and says the country needs an independent oversight of energy policy.
    Fair Work inspectors have raided more than 80 businesses in NSW in response to complaints of rampant underpayment of young workers. The Fair Work Ombudsman launched a series of raids in Wollongong in response to concerns young workers in the town were being exploited. I hope they don’t stop there!
    Now Ian MacDonald is set to dine with Eddie Obeid over a nice serving of porridge and water. Kate McClymont explains his downfall.

  7. Section 2 . . .

    What a tepid contribution from Mark Kenny!
    And I wonder where the company tax legislation will land today.
    A $1 billion solar-battery farm to be built by Lyon Group and Downer EDI in South Australia’s Riverland will be the world’s largest and ready to help prevent blackouts in the state’s fragile power grid by next summer. Google.
    Labor has warned the Turnbull government’s new sugar peace deal – unveiled after a brief voting strike by the One Nation senate bloc – could offend Australia’s free trade agreement with Singapore.
    Now Trump is tweeting threats to sections of his own party! He’s mad.
    There are more than 50 lawsuits against Trump over the travel ban.
    Richo reckons the White House farce will end in tears. Google.
    Michaelia Cash did not cover herself in glory in an interview with Neil Mitchell yesterday.
    Is Sally McManus, the new secretary of the Australian Council of Trade Unions, the saviour of social democracy in Australia?,10161
    Andrew Leigh writes that the Turnbull Government needs to step up and participate in the urgent international financial response to the funding gap left by President Trump for vital women’s health programs. We can do our part where the United States has fallen short.

  8. Section 3 . . .

    Stephen Koukoulas says that as the mining investment slump continues and the housing boom is at an extreme risk of turning nasty, the Australian economy is getting another dose of good luck. In the last year or so there has been a significant rise in commodity prices, and this is adding to national income and corporate profits, presenting upward momentum to the economy for the first time in four years.
    A survivor whose voice will be one of the last to be heard in the child abuse royal commission has urged political leaders to cast aside religious loyalties and urgently introduce strong child protection measures. That’s a big ask!
    Andrew Street proposes the use of raffles to sort out the many problems facing Australians.
    Centrelink has demanded payments of more than $10,000 from people with disabilities using its controversial automated debt recovery methods, causing distress and adding to financial pressure on families, a parliamentary inquiry into the “robo-debt” saga has heard.
    Nick O’Malley wonders what is the source of Mark Latham’s anger.
    The Herald-Sun says Bronwyn Bishop still doesn’t get it. Google.
    Sam Dastyari believes he has the numbers to have the Senate investigate “fake news” and its impact on Australia to identify who is responsible and how to combat it.
    Take the time to read this article from Laura ingle on the Hanson phenomenon. Google.
    Why Wayne Swan is staying in politics.
    Has Joe Hockey been asleep for the last few months?

  9. Section 4 . . . Cartoon Corner

    Cathy Wilcox on what started to downfall of MacDonald.

    Alan Moir on the resurgence of the ACTU.

    Cathy Wilcox has solved the problem of managing politicians’ expense claims.

    Mark David unveils the 2017 budget.

    Ouch! Broelman goes straight at Turnbull.

    David Rowe with some home truths for the government.

    David Pope thinks McManus might be difficult for the government to handle.

    A classic from Mark Knight. Iceberg Bronny.
    Jon Kudelka with government deal making with Pauline Hanson.

  10. Good Morning Bludgers 🙂

    From previous thread:

    “Coalition must take commitment to freedom of speech to the next election”, says @TheIPA #auspol

    This sort of ‘Free Speech’ costs lives.

    I can come up with plenty of other slogans that Labor can use besides the obvious,
    ‘If you want to vote for the right to be a bigot, vote Liberal’.


  11. Thanks BK, the news from South Australia on the battery farm is good, as mentioned in the article this is in addition to any facility built by Tesla or the other proposers.
    Starting it now should mean it is ready by December.

    Compare and contrast Kenny’s article and Rowe’s cartoon on the company tax cuts.

    Malcolm will get some sort of cut which will be proclaimed as a win for the government. Turnbull might promise some more Murray water for Xenophon.

  12. From Grattan’s article on the China extradition backdown
    ‘One government source went so far as to claim that “the single biggest challenge the government has got is Tony Abbott”, adding grimly, “he is very good at what he does”.’

    I think some in the government think that if Abbott went away all would be rosy, polls would improve and they could start governing.

  13. John Reidy

    “Malcolm will get some sort of cut which will be proclaimed as a win for the government. “

    The press are so desperate that the 18C non event last night was headlined today in the GG as ““Limited victory on 18C reform”

  14. John Riedy

    ““he is very good at what he does”.
    Did Grattan consider the possibility that Malcolm is very bad at what he does ?

  15. Latest on the Tax Cuts:

    Alice Workman‏Verified account @workmanalice 13m13 minutes ago
    Mathias Cormann says he “suspects” a vote on tax cuts today. Meaning government STILL doesn’t have a deal. #auspol
    Alice Workman‏Verified account @workmanalice 13m13 minutes ago
    Cormann says it’s his intention to finalise a deal on company tax cuts with One Nation and NXT… but no guarantees #auspol

  16. Kenny:

    Turnbull has made a virtue of getting things done.

    That’s what all the Coalition governments say, specially when they’re filing to do very much. “We’re getting on with the job”, etc.

  17. posted ca 7.45 am

    from BK’s list, thanks again, you do a sterling job.

    A $1 billion solar-battery farm to be built by Lyon Group and Downer EDI in South Australia’s Riverland will be the world’s largest and ready to help prevent blackouts in the state’s fragile power grid by next summer.

    Lyon Group, a Brisbane-based partnership headed by David Green and backed by Mitsubishi of Japan and US hedge fund Magnetar Capital, has secured land and will start construction in June to be operational in December.

    The project includes a 330 megawatt solar farm costing $700 million and a 100MW battery with four hours of storage – or 400MWh capacity. Grid connection negotiations are well advanced on privately owned scrubland land near the town of Morgan.

  18. Thieves are really enjoying the convenience of tap-and-go cards.

    Detective Superintendent Boyle said often credit cards are stolen from vehicles with a smaller percentage taken in home burglaries.

    “Our analysis has clearly identified that victims are reporting significantly more deceptions involving stolen credit cards, being used for multiple low value transactions – under $100 – at retail stores.”

    “Essentially cards are almost as good as cash in many instances and a single offender can use a card for multiple offences before a victim realises it has gone,” he said.

    “Victoria Police regularly consults with financial institutions in relation to these issues, including recommendations around increases in security. Australians are the biggest users of tap-and-go technology and while we appreciate it is fantastic technology that is convenient for customers, we also want to ensure that this balanced with the appropriate security measures.”

    The state’s top fraud investigator has announced police want to clamp down on daily-tap-and-go use amid soaring rates of crime linked to the technology, reports Melissa Cunningham.

    Police data revealed there are more than 1000 deception offences every month in Victoria, up by 60 per cent in just four years.

    Detective Superintendent Patrick Boyle said in 2012 there were 23,590 offences but this soared to 36,985 in 2016. It is also believed there were links between the credit cards are being used to foster other types of crime, including instances where cards have been swapped for drugs.

  19. Opposition spokesman for employment, Brendan O’Connor said the fact Mr Watson “wrote to the Government complaining about the tax treatment of his generous $272,544 per annum pension tells you everything you need to know about the former Commission member”.

    “Mr Watson has long favoured cutting the rates of pay for workers, though it’s now clear he’ll do anything to ensure his pay packet remains untouched,” Mr O’Connor said.

    …In recent weeks, Mr Watson has been arguing in favour of a cut to the national minimum pay for the lowest paid workers in the country saying this would help ease youth unemployment.

    In his first public appearance since resigning last month, Mr Watson used a speech at the Centre for Independent Studies last week to criticise his former boss, Mr Ross.

    Mr Watson suggested Mr Ross had presided over an administration that marginalised commissioners like himself with a business background in favour of others who, like Mr Ross, had a union background.

    …Mr Watson said the recent reduction in Sunday penalty rates were more “modest” than he and his former commissioner Michael Roberts had wanted.

  20. Grattan said that debate on company tax hadn’t started last night. So it will all happen today.
    If this was the US Trump would be off to his golf course.

  21. It’s not only Cash who struggles to explain their party’s position.

    South Australia’s Attorney-General John Rau has struggled to explain why his own party rejected reforms to anti-secrecy laws — despite voting against the amendments minutes earlier in State Parliament.

    The reforms, which were intended to improve Freedom of Information (FOI) and access to public documents, were introduced to Parliament by Greens MP Mark Parnell.

    They followed recommendations in 2014 by the state’s then ombudsman, Richard Bingham, who highlighted concerns of political interference in the FOI process among other problems.

  22. Apparently we are not allowed to have timestamps like grownups.
    And before someone comments that it’s a privilege to have PB (with which I agree) and stop winging, this blog contributes a very substantial amount of traffic to Crikey, which is important for advertising as well as search rankings.

  23. ‘Is he a White House shill?’: Shep Smith asks if Nunes is working with Trump to sabotage Russia probe

    During his Thursday segment, Fox News host Shep Smith delved into the latest revelation that House Intelligence Chairman Rep. Devin Nunes (R-CA) may have received intelligence information from former staffer Michael Ellis and White House staffer, Ezra Cohen-Watnick.

    Smith wondered whether Nunes was working with the White House, commenting on the chairman briefing the president last week on intelligence matters before going through his committee, and a meeting he allegedly had on White House grounds just one night prior.

  24. WOW – If True ….

    Gizmodo reporter makes compelling case she may have found FBI Director Comey’s secret Twitter account

    True investigative reporting manifests in myriad ways—no matter the medium or subject matter From Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein’s “All the President’s Men,” to Netflix’s “Making of a Murderer,” wherever there is a curious mind with the will and fortitude to solve life’s most perplexing puzzles, there is magic to be made.

    Gizmodo reporter Ashley Feinberg on Thursday proved just that, providing a compelling and exhaustive account of how she found FBI Director James Comey’s social media presence through her unparalleled investigative skills.

  25. It seems pretty obvious that there is an attempt to change the comment section of the blog; recovery of the old system has been too long and the current arrangement is getting better; it is almost usable.
    Can I suggest the authors go and look at the Guardian. Whoever wrote that pretty much got it right. Slashdot also had a good comment section.
    Guardian has got the following.
    1) Comments pages are indexed; there is no “more” button. I will point out that if you index from the oldest to newest your break points don’t change; that seems to be a discovery that is out of the reach of some writing this stuff. The old blog was very good in that regard. You could read in the morning to page 6 and read from there at night. BK’s posting was always on the same page.
    2) Avartars work. If your worried about bandwidth; in my view no biggy.
    3) Comments can be scored; that may help weed out the rubbish; probable pay to add twitty and fasebook options (have no idea what they do but youngins seem to like them)
    4) You can log in and go directly to your comments; that helps you find a discussion you are interested in.
    Problems with the Guardian solution.
    1) They make life difficult for themselves and the reader by displaying newest to oldest.
    2)Reply indenting only goes one deep; look at slashdot.

  26. Frednk

    the current arrangement is getting better; it is almost usable.

    When I have to scroll down from the top of the page to find the latest post, then down to the foot to post, then back up to check it, sorry, but I don’t find that ‘better’.

  27. frednk
    Still don’t have basic navigation like pagination, the formatting is crap, and the More button is dependent on Javascript which doesn’t always work.
    The login still diverts to a 404 page.
    Pathetic and amateurish. Looks like some kid is working on it without a spec.

  28. Oh and the “load more” button is brain dead; it adds what you have just read to the end of what you have read; so your first task is to scroll past what you have read? Just descibing it sends your head into a spin.

  29. My last effort for the morning, but this is important for us all, I think.

    Global warming is reshuffling the ranges of animals and plants around the world with profound consequences for humanity, according to a major new analysis.

    Rising temperatures on land and sea are increasingly forcing species to migrate to cooler climes, pushing disease-carrying insects into new areas, moving the pests that attack crops and shifting the pollinators that fertilise many of them, an international team of scientists has said.

    They warn that some movements will damage important industries, such as forestry and tourism, and that tensions are emerging between nations over shifting natural resources, such as fish stocks. The mass migration of species now underway around the planet can also amplify climate change as, for example, darker vegetation grows to replace sun-reflecting snow fields in the Arctic.

    “Human survival, for urban and rural communities, depends on other life on Earth,” the experts write in their analysis published in the journal Science. “Climate change is impelling a universal redistribution of life on Earth.”

    This mass movement of species is the biggest for about 25,000 years, the peak of the last ice age, say the scientists, who represent more than 40 institutions around the world.

  30. lizzie
    At least now when you follow a link you come back. But you are right it is still unusable; the load “more button” is brain dead.
    I agree with Trog’s post. Crikey is supposed to be a commercial operation. I would have subscribed to Crikey; then BB’s comments whould not be invalid (he has become repedative) but I couldn’t get subscription to work either.
    The Crikey coders are going to destoy the company.

  31. @ frednk

    you can change Guardian comments order by pull down menu at top of comments section :

  32. This was a good line from Michelle Grattan:

    The bungling over the treaty, which has been hanging around signed but not ratified since 2007, annoyed China and brought criticism within Coalition ranks of Foreign Minister Julie Bishop, who’s usually well dressed in teflon.

    Less diplomatically 😉 you could say Julie Bishop is usually well-dressed in asbestos. 🙂

  33. When we consider Michaelia Cash’s comments about Minimum Wages and the Low Paid, remember as well that she is the Minister for Women.

    Not a very good advocate, eh?

  34. I suspect the end is nigh for BishJnr as Lib Deputy – if Turnbull goes down she won’t be able to ‘surf on’ as deputy to whoever is the next leader.

  35. CTar1,
    I suspect Julie Bishop has already seen that particular writing on the wall and so is likely engaged in searching for a role to go to ‘post politics’.

  36. Confessions,
    The Feed airs on SBS2 (Viceland) Monday to Thursday at 7.30pm. It (and Samantha Bee) is the only news/current affairs show I watch on live TV.

  37. Serious question

    Is there anyone in the Fed coalition with anything resembling talent, cos I can’t think of anyone.

  38. It’s all about the money in American politics. Just follow the money, as Robert Reich did:

    Robert Reich
    1 hr ·
    With President Donald Trump trying to find his footing after his failed effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act, wealthy backers are launching a 10-state media blitz to boost Trump’s popularity and agenda — and warn wavering House Republicans to support him.
    The new group, “Making America Great,” plans to run more than $1 million in television and digital ads over the next month. It’s funded by the Mercer family closely allied with Steve Bannon and “Breitbart News.” It’s headed by David Bossie, the Citizens United leader and a former deputy campaign manager to Trump. Joining him is Emily Cornell, who had previously worked for Cambridge Analytica, a data firm with close financial ties to the Mercer family.
    Their first spot begins airing Wednesday nationally and in a series of states home to competitive 2018 Senate races, including Ohio, West Virginia, Pennsylvania and Florida. “It’s only just begun,” the spot reads, after listing some of the Trump administration’s initial accomplishments.
    In other words, the 2018 midterm elections have already begun. But many House Republicans are turning against Trump because they expect him to be a hindrance to their reelection in 2018, and no amount of Mercer money will change that.

  39. Unsurprisingly

    Greta Van Susteren‏ @greta
    BREAKING: @WSJ’s @shaneharris reports Mike Flynn has offered to testify in exchange for immunity –FTR #ForTheRecord @MSNBC

  40. @ All the people saying they don’t think JBish will be Deputy after the next leadership change. We’re talking about a world in which Dutton has become PM. The bar is low.

    Virtually everyone else in Cabinet either needs to be quietly benched, having been promoted above their ability (Cash, ScoMo, Cormann, Hunt, Frydenburg etc), or is too closely allied to Turnbull (Pyne), or is too vulnerable to media/police investigations (Brandis).

  41. Itza – I always tell people that if you had to name the 50 smartest people in Federal Parliament, not one of them would be a lib.

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