BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continues to record incremental movement to Labor on two-party preferred, and One Nation on the primary vote.

The return of Newspoll, along with the usual weekly result from Essential Research, has docked both major parties slightly on the primary vote, with One Nation continuing to go onward and upward. The difference on two-party preferred is slightly in favour of Labor, who also pick up one in Queensland on the seat projection. Leadership ratings from Newspoll send both leaders downward on net satisfaction, with no change on preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,048 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor”

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  1. Liberals definition of ‘bipartisan’: accept every part of our program without question and vote for it, including those bits we haven’t worked out yet. These days Liberals don’t do bipartisan.

  2. I respect Yasmin for apologising for losing cool.

    I would’ve appreciated a dissection of her assertion that islam is the most feminist religion.

  3. I agree about bipartisanship. Offer it when it seems as if it might be constructive but the Libs will usually only be laying traps anyway. They have no shame nowadays.

    Similarly, certain senior public servants should expect to go if and when Labor gets in. Even if they have to pay them out Labor should publicy justify the cost of it by stating that their political independence can’t be trusted.

    Labor shouldn’t be afraid to make swift, radical changes this time around should they be elected.

  4. I merely suggested that outcomes requiring bipartisanship be identified.

    There is no such animal. The right understand that nothing requires bipartisanship, only power. The only way to deal with them is to deny them power. Pretending that they can be worked with or bargained with is just to fall into their trap. They left that station long ago.

    The only answer is to come up with the best solution you possibly can given all the relevant facts, find a way to develop the power to implement it, and maintain the power to prevent that solution being destroyed as best you can. As with any battle plan it will go out the window at the first engagement with the enemy, but only by understanding that they truly are the enemy can you hope to get anywhere.

    You get to make peace when one side has completely defeated the other into submission, or when both sides assess that the costs of continuation are too much to bear. There is no point at all in wondering what might be achieved together when one side wishes to continue to wage war.

  5. Ratsak

    Having such a summit. Would be a trap for the LNP as it would be run by Labor and actuall come to conclusions based onb actual evidence.

  6. You will never have bipartisanship when you have people like Morrison pulling stunts like he has today, making money for NDIS conditional on agreeing to his childcare cuts.

    Blackmail is a polite way of describing that, some might prefer extortion.

  7. Ratsak

    The right understand that nothing requires bipartisanship, only power. The only way to deal with them is to deny them power. Pretending that they can be worked with or bargained with is just to fall into their trap. They left that station long ago.

    ———-

    “Politics is about devising ways to take power so that your tribe can implement policy. There is no other reason for its existence. Saying this doesn’t make one an amoral Machiavellian. It’s just a fact about how politics functions. It’s not about being reasonable or bi-partisan. It’s not about courting centrists (or any other specific voting block). It’s not about guilt-tripping the other side or asking nicely or appealing to their higher nature. Unless, that is, those things will facilitate gaining–and then holding–power.”

    http://www.metafilter.com/164967/When-I-hear-the-art-of-the-possible-I-reach-for-my-revolver#6909662

  8. Having such a summit. Would be a trap for the LNP as it would be run by Labor and actuall come to conclusions based onb actual evidence.

    No it would be a trap for Labor.

    It sucks but complex solutions simply don’t fly. And anyway these things are a PR stunt and you can bet the Libs and the Murdochracy would love the chance to go full retard on it. Yes they both are destroying their credibility at a rate of knots, but that doesn’t mean Labor can get cocky. The uncertainty of summits and talkfests are just too easy a target. It’s not the 80s anymore.

    The far better solution is to hone your policy in the backrooms and prepare as many allies to come out in support as you can when you launch. Then you have a chance to overwhelm the opposition before they get their counter attack together.

    It would be lovely if we had a polity mature enough to sit down and come to the most mutually beneficial solution to any particular problem. It would also be lovely if every child had a pony.

  9. Ratsak

    With Labor running it you do it like Howard scuttled the Republic.

    This time the cry is fossil fuels are broken we need to fix it.

  10. Ghost who votes just tweeted federal poll results from Galaxy in Qld. Wondering if other states to follow or it’s a federal poll question appended to a state poll

  11. Federal voting intention numbers from the weekend’s Queensland poll by Galaxy:

    GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
    3m
    #Galaxy Poll QLD Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 35 (-4) ALP 29 (-1) ON 18 (+6) GRN 8 (0) #auspol

  12. The only way to deal with them is to deny them power. Pretending that they can be worked with or bargained with is just to fall into their trap.

    Jesus who the f*ck is pretending these assholes can be worked with or bargained with? Stand down and calm your ass down man and stop being so bloody belligerent.

  13. also from Just Me’s link

    There comes a point when thinking you’re too dignified to actually engage with the power struggle of politics (or too intellectual, or too culturally sophisticated, or too rational, or too… whatever) isn’t principled–it’s just a form of vanity. Actually, that point came and went a long time ago.

    This, this, so much this. We have simply stood by and let the most ruthless take power because we’ve been too whatever to get in the trenches. So we have two choices. Fight the bastards tooth and nail, or accept whatever scraps as might fall from their table.

  14. The point about a summit is it returns the political voice to Garnaut The Climate Scientists Energy experts and the like.

    The very voices the media has been busy ignoring.

  15. “Politics is about devising ways to take power so that your tribe can implement policy. There is no other reason for its existence. Saying this doesn’t make one an amoral Machiavellian. It’s just a fact about how politics functions. It’s not about being reasonable or bi-partisan. It’s not about courting centrists (or any other specific voting block). It’s not about guilt-tripping the other side or asking nicely or appealing to their higher nature. Unless, that is, those things will facilitate gaining–and then holding–power.”

    Yep, exactly. And Labor has the momentum at present, seeing as the coalition is AWOL on sensibility. Let’s have an energy summit. Bring all stakeholders to the party, come up with some quick wins, some medium term outcomes, and some longer term objectives (even those requiring bipartisanship), and put them out there. What’s to lose.

  16. I would like to think that I laughed the loudest at James Patterson tonight. Banjo Patterson would be rolling in his grave tonight to think he was even remotely related to that guy!

  17. Most Australians have worked out that the Malcolm Turbull version of the Liberal,National Coalition is basically the political version of the kama sutra.

    They’re screwing us, we know we’re getting screwed, and they’re out to prove they’ve got 100 positions in which to screw us from.

  18. What’s to lose.

    The momentum.

    Everything.

    It’s just a bad idea. The point is to let the Libs wallow and not provide any distractions. A ‘Summit’ is one big distraction. All the potential positives can be achieved by quiet work behind the scenes without the massive risks.

    The government is the government. Shorten leading on issues is great, but only so far as it assists in making the government look all at sea or blocking off their sensible options. Labor has much more than enough policy already firmly articulated to achieve that. Now is exactly not the time to overplay their hand and distract attention from the COALition’s folly.

    Having a workable energy policy is not an issue for Labor. Getting into government in order to implement it is.

  19. Jacqui Lambie makes me feel bipolar, fair dinkum! One minute I am nodding my head in agreement. Next minute I want to clock her! ¬_¬

  20. Energy Australia Spokes person calling on LNP to transition to renewables on The Business. Thats Australias biggest operators of coal burning power stations.

  21. Labor shouldn’t be afraid to make swift, radical changes this time around should they be elected.

    Agree. If Labor wins next time it should be no more Mr nicy guy. No Rudd-style ‘don’t scare the horses’. The next election campaign will be filthy. The “Liberals” will have lied, cheated, slandered and lost. Sack their political appointees other than whatever few might be assets to the new Government. Set up a few Royal Commissions. Into banking of course. Into energy, with an emphasis on exposing the corrupt links between the Coalition parties and Big Coal. They surely exist. Then there is the whole Ashbeygate scandal and Whitehousegate. Cut Murdoch media out it is wherever legal to do so. The new rule has to be, no more for Rupert or his successors. Plant a few poison pills against the possibility of an early Coalition return. Expose the lies. Don’t give an inch. They won’t.

  22. #Galaxy Poll QLD Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 35 (-4) ALP 29 (-1) ON 18 (+6) GRN 8 (0) #auspol

    Queenslanders are why we can’t have nice things.

  23. Thats how bad the LNP would look at a summit largest coal fired energy producer demanding investment in renewables.

    Labor would be seen to be working with business.

  24. There is only one way to deal with conservatives…..go for jugular, go hard and don’t stop.

    If you get your foot on their throat just remember you can still use the other one to kick them in the head.

    (that’s hyperbole in case anyone was wondering. Ratsak doesn’t really advocate kicking conservatives in the head)

    (the nuts however…)

  25. Guytaur, Labor should just get back into government then give them their riding orders instead of playing footsie with them at a summit!

  26. Cat

    I see a summit as a way of putting that foot on the jugular. Force the media to address issues.

    Nurdoch has lost the Business Council. Last time that happebed was when Hawke Keating floated the dollar

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