The first Newspoll of the year, courtesy of The Australian, has Labor with a lead of 54-46, compared with 52-48 in the final poll last year, from primary votes of Coalition 35% (down four), Labor 36% (steady), Greens 10% (steady) – and, impliedly, One Nation rather a lot. Notwithstanding his newly elevated international profile, Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings are all but unchanged, with approval up one to 33% and disapproval down one to 54%, while Bill Shorten is down two to 32% and up three to 54%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 42-30, little different from the 41-32 result last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1734. Hat tip to the always reliable James J.
UPDATE: One Nation is said to be on 8%, and from what I can gather, this is related in The Australian’s report and not in the tables. This is important, because it suggests that Newspoll’s opening question continues to limit response options to the major parties, the Greens and others, with those opting for the latter prompted to be more specific. This would, if anything, tend to result in their support being underestimated. By contrast, the Western Australian state poll published on Friday included One Nation up front.
Americans are showing just how stupid Guy Rundle was to criticise those protesting against the muslim ban etc etc. As others have pointed out, that sort of public dismay de-legitimises Trump and provokes the Courts, the bureaucracy and congress to resist as well. If Trump keeps tanking in the polls the elites will do something to either remove him of neuter him. Never under-estimate the elites in any society.
Meanwhile we have this from another nutjob
George Christensen
George Christensen – Verified account @GChristensenMP
I think Russia is demonised unfairly. What threat do they cause us or the West? @WNBSprague @StephensWSJ @FoxNewsInsider
11:01 PM – 4 Feb 2017
18 RETWEETS13 LIKES
lizzie
Things go around in circles; probable time to bring back district inspectors.
Wow that ticker disappeared real fast.
I am mainly Activist Egalitarian with a strong dash of Progressive Cosmopolitan
http://www.theage.com.au/national/what-type-of-aussie-are-you-meet-the-7-new-political-tribes-20170203-gu57b2.html
Ahh Now its back.
C
If you have an element of Anti-establishment firebrand….
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/how-trumplike-and-hansonite-are-australians-20170203-gu52b9.html
The smallest of the seven tribes, housing about 6 per cent of Australians, is most closely linked to the Trump outsider and Hansonite. The Anti-establishment Firebrands – once known as Jack Outbacks – are anti-government, anti-globalisation, anti-redistribution of wealth, anti-immigration and anti-climate action. They are also the tribe in the box seat to leverage their growing support into policy results, be it under Mr Turnbull or the return of Tony Abbott. As we have said before, playing to extreme outsiders comes at a cost: ditching effective action on global warming; vilification of asylum seekers; intransigence of same-sex marriage; and a campaign to weaken hate speech laws.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-06/cory-bernardi-to-split-with-liberal-party/8243414
Trump’s next edict will be that all people (except Islamic terrorists!) entering the US will be required to buy a gun before they clear immigration.
BTW, I hit the Crikey firewall about 11.15 last night when trying to repost a comment that was truncated by the gerbils. It looks like others weren’t affected.
“Chinda63 – after the next election/Turnbull resignation”
Can I just clarify (because it looks a bit odd) that I mean Turnbull will jump before he’s pushed – he’ll take his bat and ball and go home if being PM suddenly starts not being worth his valuable time.
Other than that, he won’t go until he loses the next election (and I think he will).
Ah and right on cue Julian Assange and Wikileaks is doing its part to help right winger in France…..
Ben Judah
11h11 hours ago
Ben Judah @b_judah
Assange tells Russian propaganda newspaper @izvestia_ru he has “kompromat” on Macron. Aiming for President Le Pen. http://izvestia.ru/news/661960
Frednk
‘probable time to bring back district inspectors.’
No.
What we need is a cultural shift so that teachers are supported in what they do by parents and society more general, instead of being blamed for every problem confronting today’s youth.
The countries whose students perform ‘better’ than ours have very different systems – highly regulated in the case of the Asian countries, hardly regulated at all in the Scandinavian examples.
What they do have in common is a culture of respect for teachers and education, which means that the work of teachers (and schools) are supported by the community.
……………………………………..
Well since george asked – past / current conduct, a quick and incomplete list –
execution of all captive members of the Polish officer corps, March 1940 in Katyn Forest, approved by the Politburo of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, victims is estimated at about 22,000.
Reneged on Yalta undertaking of Free Elections for Poland
Looting Raping Killing in Berlin and Eastern European Nations
Non withdrawal from Eastern Europe after the war
1st Blockade of Berlin
Murderous internal purges arrests and crackdowns
Brutal crackdown and invasion of Hungary.
Supporting the Korean War and vetoing its end until Stalin’s death
Repeated threatening and intimidation of nuclear attacks on Western Europe & US
Erection of Berlin Wall
2nd Blockade of Berlin
Provoking Cuban nuclear crisis
Supporting Vietnam War (40 Billion Rubbles a year)
Persecution of political opponents, dissidents & religious groups with USSR over generations
Arrest jailing & executions of enemies opponents and slave labour imprisonment in Gulags.
Brutal crackdown and invasion of Czechoslovakia.
Invading & occupation of Afganistan for almost 10 years. (30 Billion Rubbles a year)
Military adventurism in Africa – Angola, Ethiopia etc (12 Billion Rubbles a year)
Military adventurism in Latin America – Sandinistas (7 Billion Rubbles a year)
Assisting Cuban Military adventurism in Africa.
KAL 007 Shoot down
Providing weapons that shot MH17 down
Fomenting insurrection etc in Ukraine.
Recommencement of nuclear brinkmanship – Putin repeated threaten nuclear first strike.
Can I further add that I don’t think the Libs are going to risk another change of leader.
After years of bleating during the Rudd/Gillard/Rudd years about unstable leadership, they only barely managed to get away with it with the change from Abbott to Turnbull, and that was because Abbott was so unpopular with the voting public.
If they try it again it won’t work for them, partly because they would have lost the high moral ground (snort!) on stable leadership and partly because, for all his faults, Turnbull is still well liked by a lot of people. The Libs would create a rich, angry martyr who would take absolute pleasure from shitting on them all from a great height. Rudd on steroids. All of a sudden we’d start seeing Real Malcolm, who will mysteriously rediscover all those lefty credentials he appears to have when it doesn’t matter.
Mind you, it would be fun to watch … 😉
So will Christensen go too?
If he does will Labor bring on no confidence vote?
Such popcorn style speculation. This is the LNP RGR wars on steroids.
If Bernardi leaves, it will be interesting to see what people like Abetz and Christensen do, as they seem to be politically in tune with him.
Abetz, like Bernardi, has no prospect of gaining a ministry at present and might see a greater opportunity to push his outspoken views.
Christensen, while holding out hope for a ministry, probably knows that his outspoken views might be too much for the LNP to consider him.
Dave
Watching the likes of Christensen, Bernardi, Hanson etc hitching their wagon to being Trump supporters and apologists, and in turn sucking up to Putin is the most ridiculous thing I have seen in politics for a very long time. Not forgetting their newfound d support for Assange. It is mindboggling!!
‘What we need is a cultural shift so that teachers are supported in what they do by parents and society more general, instead of being blamed for every problem confronting today’s youth.’
We also need a system that values teachers – ie a promotion system that rewards those who wish to stay in the classroom and whose skills and passion lie in this area. For the last 100 years, every step in the promotion ladder takes you further and further away from the classroom.
What message is that sending to young teachers, and just how stupid is it?
Chinda63
This Coalition govt is a dysfunctional rabid mess. Anything can happen!!
zoomster
Monday, February 6, 2017 at 8:58 am
…
What they do have in common is a culture of respect for teachers and education, which means that the work of teachers (and schools) are supported by the community.at is me.
My wife who was a primary teacher talks of a time when inspectors insisted in the development of her skills. I do find it strange the profession rejected mentors; but that is me.
I agree with your point; parents (and grandparents, that is me now) have to support the teachers and education.
Sorry should have been assisted no insisted (though that was probable the case)
Z
Absolutely agree with this.
Teaching would have to be one of the most difficult and demanding professions and is not nearly as valued as it ought to be by our society.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/liberal-senator-cory-bernardi-to-rock-first-day-of-parliament-by-resigning-from-the-turnbull-government-20170205-gu63qx.html
Cory Bernardi is set to upend centre-right politics in Australia and announce on Tuesday that he is resigning from the Liberal Party to head his own conservative movement in a stunning move that will rock the Turnbull government as Parliament returns for the new political year.
Fairfax Media has learned that in recent days Senator Bernardi informed his staff of his decision to defect from the party he has represented in the Senate for a decade and join the crossbench as an independent conservative senator for South Australia, fearing the rise of populist parties will continue if right-wing voters aren’t given a viable alternative.
Is Bernardi on a 3 year or 6 year term? If 6 year term it is a rather easy decision for him to leave the LNP (temporarily??) without facing the inconvenience of an election.
On teachers. You go with the evidence. Norway is the evidence.
Therefore anyone disagreeing with Zoomsters point is an evidence denier.
There are too many parents who expect teachers to be both teachers and parents.
No, teachers are there to teach your children to read and write. It is your job to teach them to tie their shoelaces, to blow their own noses and not to treat other people like shit.
Vic
Useful idiots to the russians, atm anyway..
putin wouldn’t hesitate to arrange a bullet to the base of their skulls or anyone else should he get the whim to do so.
Halloween Jack @ 9:10
Bernardi is on a 6 year term, so much easier for him to jump ship.
frednk
‘I do find it strange the profession rejected mentors; but that is me.’
The profession rejected inspectors; it values mentors (as I said earlier).
I haven’t ever met a teacher who regarded an inspector as a mentor – how could they be? A mentor needs to be available on a reasonably constant basis; they to understand the context of the issues the teacher is facing. You can’t do that from regional HQ.
‘Therefore anyone disagreeing with Zoomster’s point is an evidence denier.’
Can’t see anybody doing that…
Adrian
Give it time. The right wing creationists are great at denying evidence.
In all this discussion about teachers we are contrasting our system to the systems of Finland and Norway where children start school the year they turn 7, not 4 or 5. Of course geographic proximity to the Russian bear might focus the population’s psyche on the importance of being smarter than their number who can over run through sheer numbers of soldiers.
I was going to say it takes generations to modify familial attitudes to education and teachers but then I remembered how quickly working class families pushed their children towards university education once Whitlam abolished university fees, about 20 years
The last point is that teacher bashing in the newspapers has led to teacher bashing in their unfair employment conditions. There are 47,000 teachers in NSW looking for a teaching job, the system has 100,000+ teachers.
Teacher bashing is a strategy for weakening the teaching unions which were militant and very successful in improving teaching conditions in the late 1970s early 1980s
I guess we shall soon find out if it is speculation or not……
24m24 minutes ago
Sky News Australia @SkyNewsAust
.@AngusTaylorMP says any talk about the prospect of @corybernardi leaving the Liberal Party is purely speculation at the moment.
1:76
I think a Bernardi party would just be another Family First. He might take one or two Libs and Nats with no career prospects with him. No big deal.
Is Bernadi thinking he can be Australia’s Farage.
He can’t do a Trump. We don’t have Presidents
Of course geographic proximity to the Russian bear might focus the population’s psyche on the importance of being smarter than their number who can over run through sheer numbers of soldiers.
number == neighbour
And when he gets the boot in 6 year’s time, he’ll do corp-com for Gina.
What are the chances that the Nats will undermine Turnbull and ensure that someone like Dutton is installed (a hardnosed “boats” man) to help them ward off PHON. The bugger really does have enemies on all sides.
Billie
‘In all this discussion about teachers we are contrasting our system to the systems of Finland and Norway..’
I added the Asian systems in there, too – which are totally different to Norway and Finland, but are united with them by the cultural value placed on education.
Sort of suggests the actual education system doesn’t make much difference, and it is the community’s attitude which does.
Verified account @SkyNewsAust
Andrew Bolt says it is now almost certain that @corybernardi will split from the Liberal party
I’m also leaving PB as of today. So good bye all!
Dutton is the man of the moment.
What are the chances of a Dutton/Andrews dream team?
Turns out I’m “Activist Egalitarian” but with a fair chunk of “Cosmopolitan Progressive” or whatever.
Interesting quiz, I enjoyed the breakdown by question as to where the various groups sit. Unsure though whether the categories informed the clustering into various response profiles or vice versa. Have to have a deeper read of the methodology.
It’s exactly this kind of more nuanced understanding that can allow Labor to identify and pinch disillusioned ON voters without turning into racist monsters to do so. Of course the Libs know this and use it (xenophobia) to pinch their voters while legislating harshly against their economic interests
Turns out I’m “Activist Egalitarian” but with a fair chunk of “Cosmopolitan Progressive” or whatever.
Interesting quiz, I enjoyed the breakdown by question as to where the various groups sit. Unsure though whether the categories informed the clustering into various response profiles or vice versa. Have to have a deeper read of the methodology.
It’s exactly this kind of more nuanced understanding that can allow Labor to identify and pinch disillusioned ON voters without turning into racist monsters to do so. Of course the Libs know this and use it (xenophobia) to pinch their voters while legislating harshly against their economic interests
Dave
And the biggest useful idiots for Russia is Trump and is merry men
So is the New England owner and coach! Go Falcons!!
Zoidlord
Why?
Cory Bernardi will grace the Senate benches until 30/6/2022: http://www.aph.gov.au/Senators_and_Members/Guidelines_for_Contacting_Senators_and_Members/los
I will believe Bernardi leaves the Liberal party when it actually happens.
For those interested in pursuing Billie’s point, here is a list of starting ages across the world —
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.PRM.AGES
We’re in a very small minority, which raises the interesting question of why we plumped for five.
Currently, the push in Australia is for even lower ‘starting ages’, with childcare and kindergartens being encouraged to deliver educational programs more explicitly, and attendance at kindergarten being made compulsory.
Are there similar pushes in other countries?
Bernardi will be to the Coalition as the Greens are to Labor:
1. Distraction
2. Oxygen thief
3. Holier than thou
4. Populist
5. Parasitical
6. He will feed back in preferences something less than he steals.
This is why the Liberals love the Greens and why Labor will love Bernardi.