Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

In the first Newspoll of the year, surging support for One Nation drains four points from the Coalition and widens its deficit on two-party preferred.

The first Newspoll of the year, courtesy of The Australian, has Labor with a lead of 54-46, compared with 52-48 in the final poll last year, from primary votes of Coalition 35% (down four), Labor 36% (steady), Greens 10% (steady) – and, impliedly, One Nation rather a lot. Notwithstanding his newly elevated international profile, Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings are all but unchanged, with approval up one to 33% and disapproval down one to 54%, while Bill Shorten is down two to 32% and up three to 54%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 42-30, little different from the 41-32 result last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1734. Hat tip to the always reliable James J.

UPDATE: One Nation is said to be on 8%, and from what I can gather, this is related in The Australian’s report and not in the tables. This is important, because it suggests that Newspoll’s opening question continues to limit response options to the major parties, the Greens and others, with those opting for the latter prompted to be more specific. This would, if anything, tend to result in their support being underestimated. By contrast, the Western Australian state poll published on Friday included One Nation up front.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,410 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 29
1 2 3 4 … 29

  2. From the above link….

    According to the Migration Law, detention is an exceptional measure to be used only when less coercive measures are deemed inadequate for the particular case (Migration Law, article 31(5)). It is difficult to assess how often less coercive measures are employed because authorities do not provide any detention-related statistics. The Migration Law lists four non-custodial measures: regular reporting to authorities, bail, deposit of documents, and home detention (Migration Law, article 211). According to the Centro Internacional De Derechos Humanos de Personas Migrantes (CIDEHUM), bail and home detention are only very rarely used.

    According to the Migration Control Regulation, the migration police may not keep children in custody. Rather, it is the National Child Welfare Agency (Patronato Nacional de la Infancia) who is charged with their care (Migration Control Regulation, article 20).

    In 2013, 1,150 people sought asylum in Costa Rica; 1,170 in 2012. Asylum seekers are generally not detained. They are issued a document stating their status, which protects them from immigration detention. If administrative or penal proceedings related to undocumented stay of an asylum seeker are on-going, they are to be suspended until the person’s asylum application is assessed (Refugees Regulation, article 137).

  5. From previous thread:

    player one @ #390 #390 Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 6:59 pm

    don @ #385 Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 6:41 pm

    There are 13 sites on the US coast at risk of rising sea levels:
    http://news.nationalgeographic.com/energy/2015/12/151215-as-sea-levels-rise-are-coastal-nuclear-plants-ready/

    Kind of ironic that if we had more nuclear reactors, we would not need to be so worried about sea level rise.
    Also, interesting point in that article …

    Nuclear could be part of the solution, because it can deliver large, steady amounts of carbon-free electricity. That’s why China, the world’s largest carbon emitter, aims to expand its nuclear capacity by spending $78 billion to add six to eight nuclear reactors each year for five years.

    The Chinese seem to get it, so there is some hope, at least.

    The nuclear option is more likely to be to mask weapons production.

    They are spending a much greater amount on renewables per year.

    China intends to spend more than $360 billion through 2020 on renewable power sources like solar and wind, the government’s energy agency said on Thursday.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/05/world/asia/china-renewable-energy-investment.html

  6. Morning all
    Re Libspill III, I thought Turnbull would have a bad summer and he certainly has, the right probably need a bit more time to get their challenge in order.
    How do people think Turnbull would go against a chair?

  7. My Libspill 3 prediction:

    June 2017, just before the winter recess. Morrison comes up with some dodgy forecasts in the budget and uses that to claim he’s been a good treasurer and should get the gig as PM.

  8. Dan Gulberry
    My date is a bit wishy washy; please make it April 13th 2019.
    I think you should add a entry for Andrew Bolt “As early as next week”

  10. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    We have some extraordinary battles ahead as another court decision goes against Trump’s travel ban. It might end up in the Supreme Court soon.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/federal-appeals-court-denies-donald-trump-request-to-restore-travel-ban-20170205-gu60cu.html
    Paul McGeough says Trump has hit a brick wall. And it’s called American democracy.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/when-donald-trump-hits-a-brick-wall-called-democracy-he-cant-get-no-satisfaction-20170204-gu5os0.html
    The stupidity of and contradictions in Trump’s travel ban are explained in this article.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/trumps-fallacies-20170203-gu4vx0.html
    Ross Gittins justifiably tears strips off Turnbull’s recent utterings on energy.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/malcolm-turnbull-is-an-energy-magician-with-his-secret-gas-paritypricing-policy-20170204-gu5ppt.html
    Here’s The Guardian’s take on the NewsPoll result.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/feb/06/coalition-slumps-worst-primary-vote-turnbull-parliament-returns
    And Michelle Grattan’s.
    https://theconversation.com/newspoll-shows-coalition-trailing-46-54-at-start-of-new-parliamentary-session-72479
    Malcolm Turnbull has dismissed suggestions Australia will be indebted to US President Donald Trump if he proceeds with the refugee resettlement deal, insisting there is no quid pro quo for future military support.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/we-dont-owe-trump-turnbull-says-no-quid-pro-quo-over-refugee-deal-20170205-gu5y85.html
    Tom Switzer tells us that Turnbull’s last stand starts right now and that he probably won’t see out the year.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/malcolm-turnbulls-last-stand-begins-now-and-hell-be-lucky-to-last-the-year-20170203-gu507t.html
    Jennifer Hewett says that Turnbull needs more than thought bubbles. Google.
    /opinion/columnists/malcolm-turnbull-needs-more-than-thought-bubbles-20170205-gu5w06
    Manufacturing proves to be the single issue that unites Australians. And the article includes a link to the new Fairfax toll that will determine which political party you lean towards.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/manufacturing-proves-the-political-issue-that-brings-together-australians-20170204-gu5oti.html

  11. Section 3 . . .

    Saturday Night Live beautifully skewers Comical Ali aka Sean Spicer.
    https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2017/feb/05/melissa-mccarthy-steals-the-show-as-sean-spicer-on-saturday-night-live
    Whether what is heard in the confessional box should continue to stay there will be considered by the child sexual abuse royal commission as it again turns its focus to widespread offending in the Catholic Church in Australia this week. It’s going to be a very interesting hearing. Every archbishop in Australia (except for Hobart’s) is on the witness list.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/feb/05/catholic-use-of-confession-to-be-scrutinised-by-child-abuse-royal-commission
    The AFL women’s league kickoff was an enormous success.
    http://www.theage.com.au/afl/womens-afl/full-houses-get-afl-womens-off-in-style-20170205-gu5z1d.html
    This is a terrible situation with no short term way out of it.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/mentally-ill-patients-at-risk-without-treatment-in-overcrowded-jails-20170203-gu4pug.html
    Turnbull blames Shorten for SSM uncertainty. You’ve gotta be joking!
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/02/05/turnbull-addresses-plebiscite-trump/
    During an interview on Meet The Press, Speaker of the House Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) gave a single answer on Obamacare repeal that revealed why the attack on the ACA would be a disaster for the American people.
    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/02/05/answer-paul-ryan-reveals-republican-obamacare-repeal-disaster.html
    Greg Jericho writes that the US needs Australia even if Trump doesn’t know it.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/grogonomics/2017/feb/04/the-us-needs-australia-whether-donald-trump-knows-it-or-not
    How to upset private health policyholders in one easy lesson.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/premium-pay-rises-for-health-insurance-bosses-irk-customers-20170203-gu518x.html
    Maybe, Malcolm Turnbull imagines himself greater than he really his. If so, he needs to work harder turning his dreams into reality, writes Jim Pembroke.
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/the-secret-life-of-malcolm-turnbull,9994
    Pauline Hanson reveals her “vision for Australia” and at the same time proves she is barking mad.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/02/04/burqa-ban-pre-nups-tax-reform-pauline-hanson-reveals-her-visi/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage

  12. Section 4 . . . with a rather sparse Cartoon Corner

    Duterte now wants to employ the armed forces in his lethal games.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/philippine-president-rodrigo-duterte-threatens-to-drop-bombs-on-rebels-20170205-gu61sv.html
    Emboldened by recent successes the ACCC’s Rod Sims has signalled that they will be seeking larger penalties as a big message for errant big business. Google.
    /news/opinion/its-healthy-to-question-the-value-of-bogus-treatments/news-story/585d5d04b3e0d18fc3d56b6b9747c7b2
    Jess Irvine on the Trump “uncertainty factor” will corrode jobs and growth. we have reason to be worried.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/uncertainty-shock-how-donald-trump-will-corrode-jobs-and-growth-20170204-gu5olm.html
    A significant proportion of students is unengaged and making things very difficult for teachers.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-hidden-problem-in-our-classrooms-unproductive-and-unengaged-sutdents-20170203-gu4skb.html
    A new research collaboration by Fairfax Media – the Political Personas Project – will reveal a fuller picture over coming days
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/how-trumplike-and-hansonite-are-australians-20170203-gu52b9.html

    Cathy Wilcox nicely illustrates Turnbull’s real problem.

    David Rowe is really going in strong on Trump.

    This is a glorious contribution from Mark Knight.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/3c833ab76db1a3fb8e4b34edf73e1e8e?width=1024

  13. For those following the superbowl, the New Emgland quarterback is a friend of Trump. Go Atlanta! (Not that I care). Have a good day all.

  14. I did the Fairfax test on political leanings and got this result.

    Activist Egalitarian

    Activist Egalitarians have a strong social conscience and believe governments should intervene to make society more equitable. Strong believers in the redistribution of wealth and public investment, they are socially progressive, support climate action and want to protect Australian manufacturing.

  17. Good Morning Bludgers 🙂

    Manufacturing proves to be the single issue that unites Australians.

    100% true!

    It certainly came through loud and clear to me when I was doorknocking for our candidate before the federal election. Most people, when you knock on their door give you a polite hearing, take the bumpf, then go back to their lives. One guy I met, baled me up for 20 minutes to seek detailed Labor chapter and verse about Manufacturing policy!

    People, especially men, like having jobs where they make things. ‘Made in Australia’ means a lot to them.

  19. “Given what has already been logged, and burnt, almost all of the remaining ash forest is going to need be protected to ensure this animal survives,” he said.

    “This is playing out as a text-book collapse of the forest.”

    The Leadbeater’s possum is not the only animal at risk, with several gliders including the koala-like greater glider in dangerous decline.

    People like Professor Lindenmayer have been critical of government decision making for some time, particularly the failure of officials to factor in the 72,000 hectares of ash forests damaged in Black Saturday to long-term resource yields.

    “This really is grotesque mismanagement of a public resource,” he said.

    “Even the Victorian government arm of industry is acknowledging that it can’t cut the forest at anything like the current rate.”

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/jobs-and-environment-both-at-risk-as-victorian-government-grapples-with-forestry-20170205-gu5uyi.html

  20. Turnbull has to be the world’s best juggler in the next few weeks. He has so many balls in play at the moment, Cory promising to break away, PHON taking vital votes away, falling POLLS, Abbott in there still stirring, American fall out, A NPC failure to impress, WA looking negative for the libs. The list goes on. Is he up to fighting the good fight, boots and all? Do I hear a firm no?
    He just hasn’t got the down and dirty, day in day out to take on the RWNJs on let alone do the hard work of running an effective party. On top of all that is the vexing problem of what to do with the agreement with the NP and their long term shrinking vote.

  21. There is a clear body of knowledge on what teacher techniques in the classroom work best. But Australian teachers are not adequately trained in these techniques, nor given enough guidance on how to implement them in the heat of the moment. Only one-third of the practices promoted in textbooks and training courses for new teachers in Australia have been shown to work.

    And once working in schools, teachers have limited opportunities to develop these skills throughout their careers. There are too few opportunities to watch expert teachers in action, or to get feedback on their own classroom techniques. As many as 40 per cent of teachers say they have never had the chance to watch colleagues perform in class.

    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-hidden-problem-in-our-classrooms-unproductive-and-unengaged-sutdents-20170203-gu4skb.html

  22. I am mostly Activist Egalitarain. However I have elements of Progressive Cosmopolitan, Disillusioned Pessimist & Anti Establishment Firebrand.

    Absolutely no, Prudent Traditionalist, Ambitious Saver, or Lavish Mod-Con. 🙂

  23. There hadn’t been a Trump tweet for twenty hours so I thought maybe he was going to cool down and let the courts do their job. So silly of me. He’s put up these tweets in the last 15 minutes

    “Just cannot believe a judge would put our country in such peril. If something happens blame him and court system. People pouring in. Bad!”

    “I have instructed Homeland Security to check people coming into our country VERY CAREFULLY. The courts are making the job very difficult!”

  29. FS – If Cori leaves then MT should just immediately call an election and let them stew in the chaos to follow.
    He would have no further obligations to keep the ‘party’ together.

  30. BC

    ‘…until the Liberals elect a new party leader, who will have that new leader smell and turn things around for the LNP temporarily..’

    That’s usually a safe sort of prediction, but there’s no indication that they have someone who can get even a temporary bounce.

    The way the Lib vote has fluctuated with Turnbull’s fortunes shows that his personal brand was all that has been keeping them afloat. The vestigal media fondness for Turnbull is probably still holding up the Liberal vote.

    Remove Turnbull and you lose even that – and they have no one with the profile AND the public good will behind them to fill that gap, even for a short time.

    You get a bounce when you put someone in who people can believe will change things around. You don’t with an unknown or with someone who is either disliked or will mean more of the same.

  35. Hopefully Qanda will weight audience according to poll results. Means more Labor and Greens in audience. Will NXT and PHON get a guernsey?

  37. don @ #105 Monday, February 6, 2017 at 6:39 am

    The nuclear option is more likely to be to mask weapons production.

    So? All the nuclear states are in the process of upping their nuclear arsenals. But Global warming is the bigger threat.

    They are spending a much greater amount on renewables per year.

    Renewables are great. But they are not sufficient to solve the problem of C02 emissions even in a relatively small economy like ours. The Chinese know that and are therefore exercising all their available options.

    They are smarter than we are.

  39. LIzzie, re. teachers and class techniques – there needs to be some mentoring process for new teachers for at least their first six months and a follow up say two years later.
    I realise it would cost more than current budgets allow but what value does society place on good teaching?
    My grandfather was taught how to teach through an apprentice system here in NSW before there was a Teachers College (how long ago was that??), and it seemed to produce pretty good results.

  44. ‘Whoa, Donald ! I’m not going to be spoken to like that,” the PM interrupts President Trump’s rant.

    In fact, we’ll settle those 1200 refugees in our own country.’

    I find it ironic that a writer whose contention is that Turnbull is Walter Mitty-esque then projects his own fantasies on to the PM.

    Malcolm, in his leather jacket wearing days, hinted that he might do a lot of things if only he were in charge. I don’t think he ever indicated that he was at all interested in resettling the Nauru/Manus detainees here (he did do a bit of nod-nod-wink-wink about child detainees, but he didn’t go further than that).

  45. ‘It could be dramatic and lethal like the original Walter Mitty tale..’

    OK, so the guy is only pretending he’s read James Thurber. He obviously just saw the movie/s.

  46. So Senator Bernadi can see the poll writing on the wall. Figures he will gain more as leader of his own party than staying on the sinking ship. 😆

  47. player one @ #137 Monday, February 6, 2017 at 8:29 am

    Renewables are great. But they are not sufficient to solve the problem of C02 emissions even in a relatively small economy like ours.

    Luckily, your view is not held by those responsible for spending the money, who have been remarkably hard-headed about where they put their dosh.

    No private firm would ever take on a nuclear power plant as a money making proposition, unless it was extremely heavily subsidised by the government. The economics are not there.

    The subsidies are not just at the planning and building stage, they are necessary to provide the guarantee of hundreds of thousands of years of storage for the results of the operation of the plant over its useful lifetime, and to be the insurer of last resort, with free premiums, when things go pear shaped, as at Chernobyl and Fukushima.

    They are not scalable, either, in the way that many renewables are, everything from a one kilowatt PV array on a domestic roof to a huge thermal solar farm with storage for when the sun isn’t out.

  48. lizzie

    ‘But Australian teachers are not adequately trained in these techniques, nor given enough guidance on how to implement them in the heat of the moment.’

    Sigh. We had a brief glorious time in the late 80s/early 90s where there was a determined move towards better educating teachers in classroom management techniques (which include more individualised programs for students). Even then, it was met with resistance from (generally, older) staff, who couldn’t see any reason to change what they were doing.

    Booleanbach

    (modest cough)…having felt let down by a lack of mentoring in my first year as a teacher, I made it a point to approach new teachers in the school and offer to help them. When I became involved in policy formulation in Victoria, I tabled a policy on education which included teacher mentoring. I know that it was implemented for at least a few years, I don’t know if it is still in place.

  50. I can’t work out whether Bernadi leaving makes Turnbull’s job safer or more precarious. On the one hand it’s likely that the Libs will lose some RWNJs, who are Talc’s most ardent internal opponents. On the other, will there be backlash against Turnbull for being leader when the party split?

    And on the gripping hand, it will probably be more difficult to get anything reasonable through the Reps, let alone the Senate.

Comments Page 3 of 29
1 2 3 4 … 29

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *