The first Newspoll of the year, courtesy of The Australian, has Labor with a lead of 54-46, compared with 52-48 in the final poll last year, from primary votes of Coalition 35% (down four), Labor 36% (steady), Greens 10% (steady) – and, impliedly, One Nation rather a lot. Notwithstanding his newly elevated international profile, Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings are all but unchanged, with approval up one to 33% and disapproval down one to 54%, while Bill Shorten is down two to 32% and up three to 54%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 42-30, little different from the 41-32 result last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1734. Hat tip to the always reliable James J.
UPDATE: One Nation is said to be on 8%, and from what I can gather, this is related in The Australian’s report and not in the tables. This is important, because it suggests that Newspoll’s opening question continues to limit response options to the major parties, the Greens and others, with those opting for the latter prompted to be more specific. This would, if anything, tend to result in their support being underestimated. By contrast, the Western Australian state poll published on Friday included One Nation up front.
[Here’s at least some sort of pointer:
]
Thanks William, consistent with my speculation.
“As the platform is a metal grate it already had a lot of holes in it so while the slumped area shows that at least part of the core has melted through the bottom of the pressure vessel and through part of the platform it does not directly impact on the containment .”
ziggy?
Is 2pp based on respondent allocated preferences?
Just a reminder of the Libspill III entries:
Oops. That should be Libspill III Sweep entries.
Cupidstunt— 3 months before election.
And after eliminating all the entries that’ve gone past their prediction date(s), the remaining list of contenders still in with a chance are:
To all those who’ve been eliminated (including me), thanks for playing, and remember, always gamble responsibly.
Oops (again). New updated list of remaining contenders:
The anti vaxxers I have encountered seem to share a precious bodily fluids mentality…by virtue of eating organically and living a healthy lifestyle they believe themselves to be immune to disease…their offspring will be immune to common illnesses due to their superior lifestyles…they are suspicious too of big pharma, brag about never having used antibiotics and feel homeopathy and the like will successfully treat any disease that immunisation is used for…my vaccinated son, pre booster developed whooping cough and when I advised my friend that her son may be at risk by plying with mine she was unpeturbed…her son was unvaccinated against this but it was of no relevance…if he developed symptoms she would consult her homeopath…when she has a lump in her breast her husband dismissed any concern saying she lived too well to get cancer…..they believe in the science of climate change but not immunisation…they see no contradiction in their beliefs…
dan gulberry @ #58 Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 11:52 pm
That’s a bit too open ended so I should narrow it down.
Not more than 4 weeks after the 2017 budget is brought down.
Goodnight all.
Andrew Bolt writes that Cory Bernardi will quit the Liberal Party “as early as this week”.
https://twitter.com/arwon/status/828221652886441989/photo/1
One for Trumps 2017 battlers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZXHckAFMzaw
Dan
Thank you.
Be nice to see, although the interaction between Corgisite RWNJ’s and PHON would be the very definition of “interesting”. Corgi B just want to try and ride trumps coat-tails i reckon.
Bolt says it Bernardi will start a new party based on his Australian Conservatives group rather than join PHON.
“Nervous Liberal MPs have asked me if they could still persuade Bernardi to stay in the party. Answer: no. The Liberals — even Abbott — have unfairly treated him as too extreme to make a minister.”
Can we please refer to him as ‘Prime Minister Trunbull, President of Australia’ all the time, the Americans will it get it partial right.
Question is, will the this conservative party remain part of the Coalition, which i suspect it will, or at least guarentee to support the government to prevent it falling (so they can threaten them alter on).
I’ve just read in a comment on the Guardian site that the deal with Obama to take refugees was two way; that Australia in return had agreed to accept refugees from American detention camps in Costa Rica.
I’ve not heard this before. Does anyone know if there is any truth in it?
If true, it makes President Bumble of Australia and his cronies even greater disingenuous hypocrites than even I was prepared to believe.
Hey, was’t a very influential person of this site, not half a dozen hours ago, admonishing others for reproducing twitter posts here?
Something like that indeed occurred, FS. Your point escapes me.
That’s OK. Andrew Bolt is indeed a person of exceptional consequence and credibility.
Anyway, the magic number of 17 hasn’t been exceeded yet.
He’s also not on Twitter, which leaves me with no idea at all as to what the fuck you’re talking about.
So Bernardi might form another party.We already have 2 parties of racists and bigots.How many more do we have to have?
Good Evening.
I am liking the 2p0. Looks to be pretty solid with both polls saying so. 🙂
Libs will shit themselves now primaries only 35%.
Perhaps it’s my unfamiliarity with the workings of twitter, but I took the post above under your name, giving an attribution to an account, with the word “twitter” in it, was a reference to a twitter account.
But I’ve been wrong many times before , and no doubt I’m wrong again.
7 down 23 more to go Malcolm.Will he survive 23 more?
The PPM is irrelevant.
Shorten only just failed to take The Lodge 7 months ago with a smaller PPM and a far smaller 2PP than what Bludger Track is now showing.
A sufficient 2PP (say a non-rounded-up 51-49) will take him there, and render a more humble PPM figure irrelevant. Regardless of PPM, all he has to do is get the votes in a reasonably uniform manner.
Never mind, FS, I’ll just go on pitching my comments at readers of normal adult intelligence, and leave you out of it.
Shorten almost won at 50-50 so 54-46 would be a landslide.
Fulvio
The twitter link William posted was to a newspaper report, albeit photographed.
It was not (a) the mere pasting of an some tweeter’s thought bubble and (b) it was directly relevant to current discussions.
Cheers
CS
The more the right splits the better. They will have fights that make Labor v The Greens look tame. 👿
I dare say I can live with that. Cheers.
Cupid
Yes, a landslide……
But even a solid 51-49 would give a comfortable working majority.
Guytaur
Yeah let the pricks self destruct.They all deserve each other.
Psyclaw
Sometimes the twitter thought bubble can be very relevant and the poster is not pretending its their own thought bubble.
I’m calling Lib Spill on the morrow.
They know they have nothing but No Jobs & No Growth. The ultra RWNJ will want the time left to carve up the proceeds, fund a few public coal fired power stations & bankrupt as many centrelink recipients as possible before they’re turfed out. Popularity won’t count. Maximum destruction while chanting make Australia great again.
You read it here first!
I reckon Bernardi is more interested in money than politics.
I doubt that his movement would ever win enough seats to be more than a nuisance in the senate but the opportunities for fund raising among those who share his views are huge.
Helps if you are a climate change denier and so is Australia’s richest woman …
Silent Majority, you might find in that scenario Turnbull will pack up his $1.75 million bat and ball and go home.
Where will that leave the LNP, relying on the madness of Katter?
Guytaur
<i? "Sometimes the twitter thought bubble can be very relevant and the poster is not pretending its their own thought bubble."
Yes, but as William pointed out around about 5.30pm, many of them are irrelevant to the contemporary discussions.
There are “professional” (or should I say “habitual”) tweet posters here who make little contribution to discussions. Often, all they do is post tweets that tickle their own fancy. And as I said at about 5.35pm, if we all did that, what a swamp of crap this place would be.
And it doesn’t matter who owns the irrelevant thought bubble.
I am not referring to those who post tweets about breaking news.
Psyclaw
Relevance like beauty is in the eye of the beholder.
Eg. Posting about cricket can be seen as irrelevant. Yet others find such posts relevant.
Some links posted can be seen as irrelevant too.
At least the tweet quotes are limited to 140 characters. So the space taken is not much.
Eg Posting @RealDonaldTrump quotes is extremely relevant.
The independent Lord of Wentworth, Mr Trumble.
Many people didnt believe Albo when he said Turnbull was just Abbott in a top hat.Amazing to think it took voters almost a year to realise it was true.
William Bowe
#81 Monday, February 6, 2017 at 12:58 am
I don’t know what this means.
I think Mr Bowe’s point was that some here (not pointing any fingers) post tweets that are in reply to another tweet, or about something specific, but have no links in them, and no background as to what the tweet is referring to.
My advice (FWIW) is to do something like BK does with his daily links. Provide a brief precis on what the article is about, then a link to the article. Imagine if BK just posted a list of links with no clue as to what the article is about. Some of them you can figure out from the title in the link, but others need some sort of introduction.
If posting tweets, provide the same sort of introduction that BK provides, and where applicable, a link to clarify what the tweet is referring to.
Dan
Common Sense helps. Sometimes mistakes happen.
Twitter is a platform. It has its pros and cons. As someone whom William has admonished. The site full of just twitter posts is a furphy. I know William will not let that happen.
As long as we’re indulging in making ridiculous long-term predictions. I predict that the 2pp for labor will slow, but continue to rise until the Liberals elect a new party leader, who will have that new leader smell and turn things around for the LNP temporarily, then the LNP will attempt to rush to an election before the smell wears off as is their modus operandi. What the state of play will be at that point is to be confirmed, but I imagine the 2pp will be fairly close. It’s depressing to me to think about the fact that this government has another 2 years left. In that time, the popular issues on which the next election is decided could be completely different to what we’re seeing today.
Also, I remember it took a considerable series of bad polls for Abbott to be challenged and imagine that the bad PR it caused for the LNP will mean it takes even longer for it to happen to Turnball. I give it six to eight months at least.