Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

A slight move back to the Coalition in this week’s Essential Research poll, which also gauges support for Donald Trump’s “Muslim ban”.

Labor slips back a point in this week’s reading of the Essential Research fortnightly average, from 54-46 to 53-47, although this is to do with a particularly weak result for the Coalition a fortnight ago washing out of the result, rather than a turn in their favour this week. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 36%, Labor is steady on 37%, One Nation is steady on 10%, and the Greens are down one to 8%. Other findings are that 49% disapprove of Donald Trump’s self-styled Muslim ban, with only 36% in favour. At least some of this would appear to be down to questions of implementation, as the gap is narrower on the question of whether Australia should do something similar, with 41% in support and 46% opposed. Fifty-three per cent agree with the Prime Minister’s position that it is not his job to comment, versus 36% who disagree. Other questions relate to technology use, including a finding that 50% say technological change is making lives better, with 25% opting for worse.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,021 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. I don’t think we will know how the ON factor will play out until we see a few elections when voters have to make real choices about primary and preference allocations. Although this new version of ON has a bit of a different feel about it. It doesn’t appear to be as single focused as it was in the 90’s.

  3. This afternoon, door-knocking for Labor, I approached a rather largish, modern and well-finished house situated on the top of a hill. The house would be worth a million or more. The driveway accommodated four shiny, newish luxury and/or heavy 4WD vehicles. They would be worth at least a quarter-mill. So this was an affluent looking household with a charming view across the valley.

    I knocked on the front door and a gent, around my age, dressed in shorts and a tee-shirt answered. I introduced myself and told him the I wanted to introduce the Labor candidate. I offered him the red-and-white coloured Labor flyer with a pic of Mark MacGowan and the candidate. He smiled and took the form. He read it and shook it up and down, firmly. I told him the essential facts about the candidate. I said to him that if he had a mind to change the Government, then the candidate would make an excellent advocate for the local area; that the election was an important one.

    He smiled again. He looked at the form again. He said “Thank you for coming. I appreciate it. Thanks. They (the Government) sure need shaking up this time. He smiled once more and read the form for a third or fourth time, taking in the names and the text.”

    This bloke, not a natural Labor voter in the past, not a ON voter, will vote Labor on March 11.

  4. El Guapo true they may die like they did before but I don’t think they will get assistance from the legal process like they did before.

  5. My new Android media box is on its way to me. Together with a VPN, I will be able to stream ABC and other Australian TV.

    I realise it may not be worth it but I currently have over 400 channels and nothing to watch, OK BBC news is alright and sometimes Nat Geo has interesting stuff on.

    My wife is pining for the Australian media.

    I don’t suppose anyone is interested in my 100Mbs internet speed?

  7. B.C.

    I assume Mark Kenny’s article was deliberately timed for release @9PM Sunday night before Parliament resumes in the morning.

  8. b.c. @ #2975 Sunday, February 12, 2017 at 11:49 pm

    As a rule of thumb, when converting between bits and bytes for networking purposes, I just multiply or divide by 10 rather than 8 to account for the overhead.

    Thanks for your reply. So once you include the headers, we are back where we started many long years ago, when error correction took up a lot of bandwidth, and it was common then to assume that ten bits would be needed for one byte to correct for noisy lines. We are back to that bottom line.

  9. Ctari and BC : The article sounds like Ben Oquist at the Australia Institute actually wrote the article and then sent it to Kenny.

  10. Further to my comment above, it also means this:

    That if the file itself is 8 MB, I am going to use up 10 MB of data from my ISP in uploading or downloading it.

    Which is one of the reasons that too much bandwidth is never enough.

    However there is the added complication of ZIP files commonly used in email attachments, which compress the data to some extent.

  15. Elijah Cummings Asks The One Question That Could Bring Down Trump As White House Crisis Grows

    Rep Cummings asked the key question. Did Trump direct Flynn to talk to the Russians? What did the president know, and when did he know it?

    Russia has always been the dark cloud over Trump’s presidency. Every top member of his administration has now been dragged into the scandal by publicly making false statements about Flynn’s conversations with the Russian ambassador.

    Republicans in Congress have no stomach for Trump’s cozying up to Russia, and if there is one issue that is capable of inspiring a bipartisan Congressional investigation, it is Trump’s potential collusion with Russia.

    The Russia scandal has been a steady drip, drip, drip of information that the Trump administration has been unable to stop. All of those little drips of info are combining to form a tidal wave that will have the power to sweep Trump and the Republican Party out of power.

    Elected officials are asking the right questions. The next step is getting the answers.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/02/12/elijah-cummings-asks-question-bring-trump-white-house-crisis-grows.html

  16. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Here’s the latest contribution from Urban Wronski that gets right into the week’s disastrous performance by the government.
    https://urbanwronski.com/2017/02/12/turnbull-government-reveals-a-lump-of-coal-at-its-heart-in-a-disgraceful-week-of-name-calling/
    Ross Gittins writes that Reserve Bank governor Dr Philip Lowe’s economic policy to-do list for 2017 contains a lot more implied criticism of the Turnbull government’s weak performance than it has suited some in the national press to report.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/reserve-bank-chief–dr-philip-lowe-gently-reproves-turnbulls-failings-20170211-guaoqp.html
    The SMH editorial says that Turnbull’s jobs strategy lies on precarious foundations.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/australia-is-illprepared-for-its-own-version-of-donald-trump-20170210-guaixp.html
    Greg Jericho writes that From wanting to raise the Newstart eligibility age from 22 to 25, to inaction on climate change, the government gambles that young people can’t hurt it. As usual he makes a solid argument.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2017/feb/12/government-shows-contempt-for-millennials-no-wonder-theyre-not-optimistic-greg-jericho
    The decision by the Western Australian Liberals to do a preference deal with One Nation will bring some ripples for Malcolm Turnbull says Michelle Grattan.
    https://theconversation.com/one-nation-has-now-been-normalised-in-the-liberals-firmament-of-political-players-72848
    NSW the hottest place in the world. who would have thought it?
    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/red-hot-nsw-smashes-february-statewide-heat-records-two-days-in-a-row-20170212-gub14c.html
    If this scoop from Mark Kenny is true, which it appears to be, it is a bloody disgrace! The emperor will have no clothes.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/pm-and-ministers-were-told-wind-not-to-blame-for-sa-blackout-20170212-guaxf0.html
    The Australian Energy Regulator is investigating spiralling wholesale energy prices in South Australia, NSW and Queensland during last week’s heat wave as pressure continues on French-owned Engie to explain why it refused to bring its second unit at the Pelican Point power plant online on Wednesday to avoid blackouts. Google.
    /news/politics/blame-game-energy-regulator-probes-price-spikes-20170212-guaxmu
    Michael West says that the AMEO is flying under the radar . . . for now.
    http://www.michaelwest.com.au/aemo-sails-under-radar-amid-renewable-energy-blamefest/
    An unlikely coalition of electricity suppliers, business groups and environmentalists is calling on politicians on all sides to ditch their “partisan antics” and work together to create a reliable, affordable and clean energy system. The trouble is that there are other powerful forces such as the mining lobby that don’t want to see it happen.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-bill-shorten-told-to-ditch-partisan-antics-on-energy-security-20170212-guaxyv.html

  17. Section 2 . . .

    Al Franken has repeated his contention that some of his fellow senators think Donald Trump is “not right mentally”.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/12/al-franken-senate-concern-trump-not-right-mentally
    The ratings are in, and they are bad news for President Trump. Alec Baldwin’s Trump impression is so popular that it led the program to six-year ratings high and easily bested the ratings for the episode that Trump guest hosted in 2015.
    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/02/12/alec-baldwin-blows-trump-ratings-water-record-setting-snl-guest-hosting-gig.html
    George Williams puts it to us that we are not at all prepared for our own version of Donald Trump. It all comes down to the absence of a bill of rights.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/australia-is-illprepared-for-its-own-version-of-donald-trump-20170210-guaixp.html
    Actor Alec Baldwin’s infamous Saturday Night Live impression of Donald Trump has tricked a national newspaper into thinking he was the US President. That’s so funny!
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/entertainment/tv/2017/02/12/alec-baldwins-trump/
    Stephen Koukoulas says that if low unemployment is a policy goal than Australia isn’t doing too well.
    https://thekouk.com/item/459-if-low-unemployment-is-a-policy-goal-australia-is-not-doing-well.html
    Bankwest is set to rock the $1 trillion mortgage market and more than 1.5 million property investors by axing negative gearing benefits that drive lucrative residential property investment, particularly in Melbourne and Sydney. This will set the cat amongst the pigeons! Google.
    /real-estate/cba-unit-bankwest-set-to-axe-negative-gearing-tax-breaks-20170212-guawig

    Adele Ferguson doubles down on Domino’s Pizza.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/dominos-scandal-franchisees-selling-visas-20170211-guau8x.html
    New polling suggests 71% of people would look more favourably on the Turnbull government if it allowed a free vote on same-sex marriage instead of holding a plebiscite, including 64% who lean to voting Liberal. Come on Malcolm show is that you’ve REALLY grown a pair!
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/feb/12/same-sex-marriage-free-vote-would-boost-governments-popularity-poll
    The British government’s plans for the visit are in crisis after a possible address to both houses of parliament was controversially vetoed by Commons Speaker John Bercow.
    http://www.theage.com.au/world/birmingham-option-discussed-as-british-officials-panic-over-trump-visit-20170212-guawo3.html

  18. Section 3 . . .

    Trump is undermining the fight against corruption.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/12/donald-trump-is-undermining-the-fight-against-corruption
    More from Mark Kenny writing that a new push for a full-scale probe into the Australian banking sector is set to test the resolve of key Nationals agitators and the Labor opposition – both have campaigned hard against poor bank behaviour, and promised to back a royal commission if given a chance.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/push-for-banks-probe-set-to-test-nats-resolve-20170212-gub1of.html
    Tim Dick examines why small-l liberals are moving to the right.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/turmoil-doesnt-look-like-ending-anytime-soon-20170212-gub01z.html
    The Paul Hogan miniseries has been well and truly panned.
    https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2017/feb/13/hoges-review-biopic-bombs-badly-as-josh-lawson-parodies-paul-hogan-instead-of-playing-him
    Meryl Streep cuts loose at Trump again.
    http://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/celebrity/celebrity-news/meryl-streep-in-fresh-attack-on-donald-trump-at-lgbt-gala-20170212-gub8mt.html
    An obviously angry Amanda Vanstone says that “Cory Bernardi’s future doesn’t look too good. To start with he’s not the sharpest knife in the drawer.”
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/cory-bernardis-future-doesnt-look-so-bright-20170210-gua9f5.html
    Jess Irvine unpacks the proposed new childcare arrangements.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/baby-steps-towards-a-truly-modern-childcare-system-20170210-guaiyu.html
    Fear and panic have gripped America’s immigrant community as reports circulate that federal agents have become newly aggressive under US President Donald Trump, who campaigned for office with a vow to create a “deportation force”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/immigrant-community-on-high-alert-fearing-trumps-deportation-force-20170212-guawhy.html
    Households face a price hike of nearly 20 per cent on internet servic¬es, on average, as they are required to sign up to the National Broadband Network when it arrives in their neighbourhood and the ¬existing service is switched off. Critics of the mixed-technology NBN say that a reliance on Telstra¬’s copper is likely to leave many homes paying more for a sub-standard service. Google.
    /national-affairs/price-hike-warnings-as-nbn-makes-inroads-into-capital-cities/news-story/a3ea66b7cc20230441210898f49efef6
    Coles might think they have a shoplifting problem, but really they have a customer relations problem: they are cutting customer service in the pursuit of profits and customers are pushing back.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/its-no-wonder-we-view-coles-as-a-faceless-food-factory-that-its-ok-to-rip-off-20170210-gua6dz.html

  19. Section 4 . . . with Cartoon Corner

    This 92 year old mother whose daughter was a victim of child sexual abuse and ended up suiciding wants here pound of flesh from the Catholic church. Google.
    /national-affairs/opinion/the-church-wants-me-to-die-but-i-am-not-done-yet/news-story/330bbb9cc4cc634b6429ff1a2d07b6f1
    This account of the day in the life of a GP in the light of the Medicare rebate freeze makes worthwhile reading.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/gp-rebate-what-i-do-for-the-3705-that-no-one-wants-to-pay-20170211-guao54.html

    Matt Golding and Turnbull’s treatment of informed advice.

    David Rowe takes us to court with Carpenter and his ugly new squeeze. Plenty of nipples on show again.

    Matt Knight welcomes the stricken cruise liner to Melbourne.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/bee7942a99cff4483be06ff4a4f3f0e0?width=1024
    In light of Mark Kenny’s revelations above this effort from Bill Leak is an egregious slur.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/3478c2ab879f46245e38b541e2c49209

  21. The key problem is neoliberal organisation of electricity supply:

    However, the more recent blackouts in both South Australia and New South Wales were due to market manipulation.

    The facts have since emerged that generators were idle during the blackouts because of the ridiculous incentives within the ‘market’ system that allows companies (many of them foreign owned and by foreign governments) to withhold supply.

    We know from last year that in South Australia there was a huge spike in prices in July. The fossil fuel generators deliberately restricted supply which pushed up prices and delivered them huge boosts in profits.

    At the time it was clear that generation capacity was always much greater than demand. The generators refused to supply at anything other than a massive price.

    A commentator at the time said the generators (Source):

    … weren’t doing anything illegal, but they were taking advantage of a market that wasn’t functioning properly.

    But that is the perversity of our neo-liberal world. Money comes before service in essential services such as electricity. The government has set up an artificial system to allow operators to earn massive profits at the expense of the well-being of citizens and other businesses.

    http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=35345

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