BludgerTrack returns following the break of the New Year polling drought, courtesy of GetUp! ReachTEL poll and the year’s debut for Essential Research – although BludgerTrack features only the latter, as it includes only media polls for the sake of consistency. Since the Essential result is the only data point available from the past month, it more or less single-handedly determines where things currently stand, which is to say in much the same place as they did before the start of the drought.
The Essential results on the primary vote were Coalition 38% (up one), Labor 37% (steady), Greens 9% (down one), One Nation 8% (steady) and Nick Xenophon Team 4% (up one), with Labor maintaining its 53-47 lead on two-party preferred. Being the first poll of the year, these results are purely from a one week sample of 1017, and not a rolling average combined the results of two consecutive weeks. The poll also featured the monthly leadership ratings, which both leaders down on “don’t know” for their personal approval. Malcolm Turnbull is up three on approval to 37% and two on approval to 48%, while Bill Shorten is respectively up two to 37% and six to 44%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 39-28.
Essential did not features its usual supplementary questions on selected current issues this week, but we do have an international survey by Ipsos that used a variety of measures to probe for Trumpian sentiment around the globe. This found Australia generally landing in the middle of the pack, but one exception was that 48% of Australians rated their country as being in decline, which compared favourably with most other countries – in particular the United States on 60%, and the United Kingdom on 57%.
My paywalled Crikey content has included a review of Mike Baird’s polling and electoral record from today:
Given the circumstances of his departure, and his success in keeping his nose clean as leader of a state that has become proverbial for political malfeasance, most reacted to the news sympathetically (Mark Latham being a seemingly inevitable exception). Even so, Baird leaves office with a patchy electoral record, and with recent polls suggesting the public was growing increasingly disenchanted with his leadership.
And yesterday, an analysis of the electorates where the Coalition is most likely to be punished for the Centrelink debacle:
Reports this week suggest the next targets will be disability support and, particularly dangerously, the aged pension … The highest concentrations of those on unemployment benefits tend to be in low-income areas of the big cities and remote regions with high indigenous populations. The former account for the most reliable Labor territory in the country, while electorates encompassing the latter usually bring together white conservative and indigenous Labor voters, with the former being decisively greater in number. But when pensioners come in to view, real problems start to emerge — especially for the Nationals, whose rural and regional heartland is distinctive for being whiter, poorer and older than the big cities.
And on Monday, a look at the Queensland seats most likely to fall to One Nation, based on analysis of the 2016 Senate vote:
Clear at the top of the list for the LNP is Lockyer, which covers the rural areas between Ipswich and Toowoomba … Labor’s danger areas include the two seats that cover Hanson’s old stamping ground of Ipswich, where the threat is intensified by the weakness of the LNP, since the One Nation candidates will have a low bar to clear in overtaking the LNP and scooping up their preferences.
simon katich @ #72 Saturday, January 21, 2017 at 11:34 am
Thanks, I have been miss informed. 🙂
WWP,
I’ll have whatever you’re having!
bemused
Make up your mind, the other day you were saying I wasn’t one of them.
Note to self: next time bemused complains about something, have a go at him for similar things he’s not complaining about and then diss any reply he makes as coming from the misogynists, instead of giving him the respect he deserves as a human being.
Sorry I meant to say that ice fries the frontal lobe. Addicts wind up with badly damaged brains. Australia has a high rate of ice addiction.
‘The sisterhood have every right to be outraged!’
Indeed
‘Yes, I was right.’
Regulars on PB know that Bemused is always right, and is an expert on just about everything, particularly the wimmin.
‘But try telling that to the privileged white fuckers, let alone the orange ones.’
Love it!
Poroti
Saturday, January 21, 2017 at 2:29 pm
[Bristol police taser their own black race relations adviser after mistaking him for wanted man
Judah Adunbi, 63, was a founding member of the city’s Independent Advisory Group,]
He should be grateful he doesn’t work in Florida, Mississippi, or Alabama, where the police use real weapons… But, hang on, it wouldn’t have happened there, because their race advisors are all white, on secondment from KKK.
BTW, I thought ‘Bristol Police’ were WPCs
Adrian
bemused has frequently told us he can see women from his house.
BK
Thanks for the links about the South Road bridge repair.
SK
Interesting. Happily no, my firm did not design the overpass. Though we still do not know if this was a design, materials or construction fault.
There have been several instances recently of projects being compromised by people importing cheap materials from China that have then proven substandard. The problems with the repaving of Victoria Square and Rundle Street (west) was a good example. The stone did not meet specifications for skid resistance, and this was not picked up by the contractor or Council. IMO Council should have forced the contractor to remove and replace it. I presume the contractor cried poor, Council folded rather than take them to court, and they just lowered the speed limit instead.
Who says you need qualified engineers to run major projects? Though often, when things go this wrong, the client is as much to blame as the contractor. The new RAH delays and vague instructions from SA Health is a good example.
Keith Olbermann appeared on Real Time earlier.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oFm6mZR0cfA
zoom
“bemused has frequently told us he can see women from his house”
LOL
z,
I doubt that. Bemused has mirrors everywhere so he can always be watching himself.
Kezza2
Ah that! The election of Trump was a slow burn for me. Initially I figured it would be business as usual with a flavour of narcissistic arsehole mixed in. But since the election, my weird vibe has gone through the roof and there is a sinister foreboding about this Presidency. It really isn’t business as usual
Socrates
ice does fry the brain. It is bad shit
A R @3:31PM: spot on re terrorism.
zoomster @ #153 Saturday, January 21, 2017 at 4:26 pm
That was the sorority. Please remember things correctly. 😛
victoria @ #164 Saturday, January 21, 2017 at 4:38 pm
True of most drugs to varying degrees.
zoomster @ #158 Saturday, January 21, 2017 at 4:31 pm
Only if they don’t see him first.
Colton
For your education:
Election of Trump ==> Women’s Rights trashed ==> No access to abortion in USA ==> next stop Canada
Your take on things: Election of Trump ==> Just what America needs ==> If an American woman gets pregnant and wants an abortion ==> Canada equals wimmin getting wet over Trudeau
On your own territory ==> daughter asks question about abortion ==> whaddido? I know, ask PB ==> from the blokes, don’t say nothin’, leave it to the wimmin –>woman says tell the truth ==Bigger picture –> cheaper for USA wimmin to go to Canada than Australia
Do you have any idea why Australian women are protesting against Trump? Why we protested against Abbott?
We’re protesting and protecting our long and hard-fought for rights.
Are you thick, or what.
bemused
You must explain the difference in the groupings sometime; it is unclear who belongs to the sisterhood, the sorority, the pack, the women, etc etc. There does seem to be a common pattern, however.
If you are going to lump all posters on women’s issues (regardless of gender) together, it is only fair that I do the same to posters who seem to think that women’s issues don’t exist. I will call them misogynists, not to be rude, but because it’s a convenient handle. Who I include in that group – sometimes it will be women – will vary, depending on whose viewpoint I want to dismiss as invalid at the time.
I will, however, expect that my use of the word is not taken as incredible rudeness, verging on discrimination, but simply as a way of lumping together anyone I feel like at the time.
A R
Saturday, January 21, 2017 at 4:13 pm
[the day a democratically elected president of the US was inaugurated.
Inaccurate descriptor. Democracy is where the person or thing with the most votes wins. Usually US elections produce a democratic result, but the underlying system is not really democratic and in 2016 it did not produce a democratic result. Trump has no democratic legitimacy, similar to W Bush’s first election.]
Sorry AR , ban’t agree! Ther e would be very few “democratically Elected” govts ont the world. Certainly not any parliamentary system, where an “electoral college” eg the House of Reps, elects a PM.
Anyone got a spare half hour to pull my ride on mower out of some brambles? It’s on a slight downward slope and I don’t have the muscles I had 3 years ago.
No volunteers?
OK, as you were. It will have to wait until Monday. :sigh:
zoomster @ #170 Saturday, January 21, 2017 at 4:45 pm
I am always a bit puzzled about so-called “women’s issues” as the dividing line on attitudes is not based on gender, no matter how much you and K2 and others might like to pretend.
I am as concerned as anyone about health and other issues that affect women, as I share my life with women, and care about them. Same is true of the men I know.
Similarly, those women are concerned about the men in their life, and the health of those men.
I always thought it was a right wing thing to seek to divide people artificially . I must have been wrong.
Bemused.
Dear sir,
Be gentle my friend.
I am trying with my cleverness to be looked upon kindly by the ladies.
I am sick , sick I say, of having to do the washing up, the pretending to be neat and tidy, the “Oh, yes fond daughter, I was about to get right onto that washing and cleaning.”
Pretending to be affable and kindly and adopting the friendly old Uncle role is not my usual fare. Much sooner be out with the boys, boozin and coozin (WTF is coozin, cousin?) and hell raising in the old fashion ocker way.
Where was I? Oh, yes about to recreate my wonderful piece of prose regarding biscuit crumbs and spiders.
Any volunteers to be my best loved washer, cleaner? No! Well I love yewze any way.
Sorry, almost forgot. G’day mate, yer lookin’ good.❦
Well I like Olbermann’s thinking: Trump’s cabinet and dept heads are akin to outfitting a pirate shop – they’re all there to take public money out of their portfolios.
He also said they’re incompetent and will likely embroil Trump in something that will to the Republicans having to bail out on him, then they’ll have to impeach him. The US gets President Pence for a couple of years and then he’ll be voted out in 2020.
Glass half full!!!
Interesting piece on the cabinet re-shuffle this week.
https://thewest.com.au/opinion/ministry-still-out-of-balance-ng-b88359676z
lizzie @ #172 Saturday, January 21, 2017 at 4:50 pm
Dammit, Lizzie. I am truly desperately sad to not be able to assist, even though the muscles I had 3 years ago were like my present ones. Flabby.
I have made a little business card for Simon – the golden retriever, lest I forget.
Back to my clever comment recreation. Damn the gerbils/gremlins.
Bye. ☮
Bemused
‘I always thought it was a right wing thing to seek to divide people artificially . I must have been wrong.’
You are, and that is exactly what I am trying to point out to you.
I’m sorry to find you’re dimmer than I thought.
Kay Jay
I just suffered the same fate in a reply to vic.
Carefully crafted gone into the ether.
ah well, them’s the breaks.
And I don’t rue one moment of my time spent protesting/protesting the rights of men in the union movement; it a pity they don’t reciprocate, if Colton is an example. He’ll have some splainin to do when his daughters get older.
As far as keeping the house clean, you must have housewives’ knees by now.
kezza2
#169 Saturday, January 21, 2017 at 4:44 pm
I, in my tired, late night way, made a detailed comment regarding abortion. This not an argument, just what I remember. My tiny essay was not quite appropriate, but would have been excellent if the child was a robot. Whoever came along and said the the parents, in concert, should work out between them the best approach with this, as with many other subjects, made sense to me.
If you hang about (not literally) for a while I am working on something to say about biscuit crumb, spiders and all that. (Not 42 which we all know is the answer to life, the universe and all that as pointed out a few days ago).
Good afternoon all,
Trump has been quick off the mark. The TPP is dead and Trump is moving on. All that screaming and holding of breath by Turnbull last week has, alas, been to no avail.
Turnbull really does lack any political nous. Shorten has played him again. Turnbull and the Libs are so focused on attacking Shorten they continue to fail to think through their response to his announcements. Shorten calls on the government to forget about the TPP as Trump had clearly stated it would not be ratified. Instead of just waving Shorten aside and saying the government will wait until Trump is sworn in they launch a all out attack demanding labor support the legislation and keeping the issue alive for a week. Now they simply look like they have been caught with their pants down and , as a result, Shorten has the momentum.
The simple truth is Turnbull has nothing, has to automatically challenge Shorten at every turn and every time ends up looking inept and stupid.
Big week coming up for Shorten and labor as Turnbull is faced with his stupid decision to waste all his time on the deceased TPP.
Cheers and a good day to you all.
Damn it, that came out wrong: bemused, YOU are the one, with your frequent references to sororities, packs, the sisterhood, etc who have been dividing people artificially. I have been trying (using a thing called satire) to point this out to you.
I’m glad you understand this is wrong, and hope that you cease to lump posters here into arbitrary groups in future, and instead show them the respect they’re due as individuals.
After all, if you show no respect to people, you have no right to demand respect back.
Fess
thanks for posting Bill Maher!
Zoomster:
You are wasting your time. He only comments here to inflame and provoke others, so best to ignore his bullshit.
Well said Zoomster.
Uh, protesting/protesting = organising/protesting
The gag begins… Whoever imagined America could be ruled by a petty dictator?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2017/01/20/interior-department-banned-from-twitter-after-retweet-of-smaller-than-usual-trump-inauguration-crowd/?utm_term=.387f7c055988
lizzie @ #172 Saturday, January 21, 2017 at 4:50 pm
If you frequently get in such predicaments, there are useful mechanical aids if you have no-one close by who can assist.
The crowds in Washington were not happy that the Trump hats were made in Asian countries.
https://twitter.com/WEDeming/status/822686210254508034
zoomster @ #178 Saturday, January 21, 2017 at 5:04 pm
Oh thank you for the enlightenment. I now know that it is not a right-wing thing “to seek to divide people artificially”.
I can now quote your authority on this point.
There are only 1460 days till Trump is gone!
lizzie
“If you frequently get in such predicaments, there are useful mechanical aids if you have no-one close by who can assist.”
They’re called not-bemuseds.
No, you can’t, bemused – I retracted that post.
bemused
Way behind the eight-ball.
And, you not even funny.
zoomster @ #182 Saturday, January 21, 2017 at 5:06 pm
I merely reported what was obvious about the behaviour of some on PB. And I have not been alone in noticing it and commenting on it.
If it wasn’t there to be seen, I wouldn’t have it to comment on.
…although you DO appear to be dimmer than I thought! I apologise for that – so much of what I’ve addressed to you in the past must have gone straight over your head. My fault, not yours.
Victoria,
Hope you’re feeling somewhat better as the day has gone on.
As the reality of Trump’s inauguration sinks in on top of yesterday, with reports of another death, my heart just sinks more and more.
Fortunately, family who work in the CBD weren’t anywhere near the tragedy.
Vic:
No worries. I’m so glad his show is back – one of the best political commentators in the US in my view.
kezza2 @ #179 Saturday, January 21, 2017 at 5:05 pm
Where is the camera? Abbee, please little darling doggee help Daddy find the camera.
I have very fine knees. It’s the damn hips and the legs that are part of the problem.
Please pay attention, everybody, this is the sort of thing you will be singing should you land up in aged care.
Head, shoulders, knees and toes,
Knees and toes.
Head, shoulders, knees and toes,
Knees and toes.
And eyes, and ears, and mouth,
And nose.
Head, shoulders, knees and toes,
Knees and toes.
Place both hands on parts of body as they are mentioned. On second time speed up, and get faster with each verse.
Read more: http://www.scoutsongs.com/lyrics/headshoulders.html#ixzz4WNGK24si
Follow us: @yugiohcardguide on Twitter | YuGiOhCardGuide on Facebook
bemused
‘I merely reported what was obvious about the behaviour of some on PB…’
And I’m merely reporting what is obvious about your behaviour. And I have not been alone in noticing it and commenting on it.
If it wasn’t there to be seen….