BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor

One stray poll brings the BludgerTrack aggregate back to life, but the result is much the same as it was at the close of business last year.

BludgerTrack returns following the break of the New Year polling drought, courtesy of GetUp! ReachTEL poll and the year’s debut for Essential Research – although BludgerTrack features only the latter, as it includes only media polls for the sake of consistency. Since the Essential result is the only data point available from the past month, it more or less single-handedly determines where things currently stand, which is to say in much the same place as they did before the start of the drought.

The Essential results on the primary vote were Coalition 38% (up one), Labor 37% (steady), Greens 9% (down one), One Nation 8% (steady) and Nick Xenophon Team 4% (up one), with Labor maintaining its 53-47 lead on two-party preferred. Being the first poll of the year, these results are purely from a one week sample of 1017, and not a rolling average combined the results of two consecutive weeks. The poll also featured the monthly leadership ratings, which both leaders down on “don’t know” for their personal approval. Malcolm Turnbull is up three on approval to 37% and two on approval to 48%, while Bill Shorten is respectively up two to 37% and six to 44%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 39-28.

Essential did not features its usual supplementary questions on selected current issues this week, but we do have an international survey by Ipsos that used a variety of measures to probe for Trumpian sentiment around the globe. This found Australia generally landing in the middle of the pack, but one exception was that 48% of Australians rated their country as being in decline, which compared favourably with most other countries – in particular the United States on 60%, and the United Kingdom on 57%.

My paywalled Crikey content has included a review of Mike Baird’s polling and electoral record from today:

Given the circumstances of his departure, and his success in keeping his nose clean as leader of a state that has become proverbial for political malfeasance, most reacted to the news sympathetically (Mark Latham being a seemingly inevitable exception). Even so, Baird leaves office with a patchy electoral record, and with recent polls suggesting the public was growing increasingly disenchanted with his leadership.

And yesterday, an analysis of the electorates where the Coalition is most likely to be punished for the Centrelink debacle:

Reports this week suggest the next targets will be disability support and, particularly dangerously, the aged pension … The highest concentrations of those on unemployment benefits tend to be in low-income areas of the big cities and remote regions with high indigenous populations. The former account for the most reliable Labor territory in the country, while electorates encompassing the latter usually bring together white conservative and indigenous Labor voters, with the former being decisively greater in number. But when pensioners come in to view, real problems start to emerge — especially for the Nationals, whose rural and regional heartland is distinctive for being whiter, poorer and older than the big cities.

And on Monday, a look at the Queensland seats most likely to fall to One Nation, based on analysis of the 2016 Senate vote:

Clear at the top of the list for the LNP is Lockyer, which covers the rural areas between Ipswich and Toowoomba … Labor’s danger areas include the two seats that cover Hanson’s old stamping ground of Ipswich, where the threat is intensified by the weakness of the LNP, since the One Nation candidates will have a low bar to clear in overtaking the LNP and scooping up their preferences.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,696 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor”

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  1. Trump’s America is a rotten place

    President Trump delivered a campaign speech, not an inaugural address today. That he and his staff do not understand the difference goes to the heart of his insufficiency as a leader. Addressing a shockingly sparse crowd, he painted a picture of a hellish America that can only be restored by turning inward, deciding the world is a burden and our allies are thieves.

    There has never and will not be a better Trump. His vision is dark, false and frightening. He leads by stoking nativism, protectionism (which actually makes us poorer) and seething resentment. God help us all.

  2. It is a nice cool 4 degrees c here in London. I had a nice walk along the embankment. Are there any suggestions on things I should see in London during my stay. I have been to the British Museum. There is a place on the Embankment with a display and vid on the history of executions.
    I might see that, in keeping with Era Trumpian.

  3. Good morning Dawn Patrollers as we wake up to a new, uncertain world. (Excuse me while I vomit as I hear a treacle-thick prayer is offered to the God-appointed President!)

    Don’t tell me the police are going to cop the blame for the carnage in Melbourne!
    Leyonhjelm rightly got slammed over his disgusting tweet.
    The perpetrator had a troubled past.
    Incoming Premier Gladys B has something going for her. Alan Jones doesn’t like her.
    Adam Gartrell tells Turnbull to tell us his agenda – if he has one.–if-he-has-one-20170119-gtuhxp.html
    After a year when voters worldwide thumbed their noses at mainstream politics and the elite, a landmark annual survey has found trust in major institutions is eroding at a rapid rate. And the effect is particularly pronounced here in Australia.
    Peter FitzSimons calls BS on Trump’s explanation of that “locker room comment” that he so famously made.
    Laurie Oakes says Turnbull needs to hit the reset button and a big speech to the NPC would be a good opportunity. Google.
    And Peter van Onselen writes that it’s hard to know why anyone would want to support the federal Coalition government right now. Unless you have a friend or relative in the parliamentary ranks of Malcolm Turnbull’s team, or you have a visceral hatred of Bill Shorten and the Labor Party, I can’t real¬ly see why voting for this government would be attractive. Google.
    Paul McGeough on what we can look forward to in the next four years with Trump as America emerges from three months of pre-traumatic stress disorder.

  4. Section 2 . . .

    How America went From ‘Yes we can’ to ‘Because I can’.
    Shocking poll numbers tell of a uniquely difficult path for the new commander-in-chief. And that’s before the inevitable scandals start. Richard Wolffe tells us that the Trump honeymoon is already over.
    The SMH hopes like hell that when Trump meets reality he will be different.
    A big battle is looming in the US between Trump and the great organs of the American press like The New York Times and The Washington Post. Martin Flanagan knows who he’s barracking for.
    An open letter to Hillary Clinton telling her to be a sore loser.
    The hacker and activist collective Anonymous, which wasn’t a heavy-hitter during the presidential campaign, has now warned Donald Trump that he is going to “regret” the next four years.
    Here’s a breakdown of where Gonski money has gone in NSW.
    Soon we will have NBN, Medicare and NDIS existing in name only.
    By substituting manual checking of data for a computerised algorithm in a typical Coalition cost-cutting exercise, Centrelink now faces thousands of man hours dealing with the debacle including a frenzy of class action suits. John Haly reports.,9941
    Michael West says that as the storm over social welfare rumbles on with Centrelink and its breathtaking debt recovery bungle, it is worth considering Australia’s corporate welfare elite.

  5. Section 3 . . .

    Now The Greens have a rump of their own.
    The aged care time bomb for families. Google.
    An interesting article from Wendy Squires on the burqa and other headdresses .
    Jess Irvine on the march of women into the workforce.
    Jack Waterford doesn’t like what Australia day has been turned into. This is quite a spray.
    And Irfan Yusuf says diversity should be seen as an asset rather than an excuse to complain.
    Michael Gordon writes that Australia has retreated into a ‘delusionary mental bubble of self-interest’
    Greg Hunt will be welcomed to Health with a full in tray according to the AFR. Google.
    Slimebag priest Gerald Ridsdale faces packed courtroom on fresh child-sex charges
    Simon Cowan tells us why Turnbull’s plan on parliamentary entitlements won’t work.

  6. Section 4 . . . with Cartoon Corner

    Crispin Hull says we’ve succeeded in taking on Big Tobacco so let’s go after Big Sugar.

    Alan Moir at the inauguration.

    Mark David really comes up with some good stuff!

    David Rowe has a couple of goodies on Trump’s inauguration.

    Matt Golding and Turnbull’s ministerial changes.

    Macca at the White House handover.
    Some nice artwork from Bill Leak.

  7. This is the guy who writes Trump’s speeches:

    But Miller also cuts a deeply unsettling figure, even to many in his own party. His nine-year career working for some of the most politically fringe figures on the Hill—he also worked for Michele Bachmann and helped David Brat in his primary defeat of Eric Cantor—was preceded by a trail of writings and provocations that go all the way back to high school, one that has raised the eyebrows of even conservative Republicans.

    There is something eerily vintage about Miller’s stump speeches. The combination of their substance—vilifying immigrants as killers, the promise of nativist glory days ahead—and their delivery with a calm face around a loud, droning mouth, slicked-back hair and sharp suit, floridly invoking powerful cabals against the people: All of it harks back to an earlier time. It’s as if the video should be in black and white, and the microphone in front of Miller an antique, metallic affair. This is an image Miller assiduously cultivates, smoking like a chimney and dressing in suits that earned him the nickname “Mad Men” on the Hill.

    Perfect for a 70 year old President I guess.

  8. A photo of the Trumps and VP standing on steps ‘waving goodbye to the Obamas’ is interesting because Donald isn’t waving. He’s standing with his arms at his sides looking truculent. No respect.

  9. ptmd

    Science Museum & Natural History Museum usually on peoples list. Next to each other in Kensington and you could do a walk in Hyde Park while you’re there.

    (The Embankment one of my favourite London places. I’ve walked between Blackfriars Station and Embankment Station hundreds of times.)

  10. William

    ‘ Malcolm Turnbull is up three on approval to 37% and two on approval to 48%, while Bill Shorten is respectively up two to 37% and six to 44%’

    Is this some post Trumpian phenomena, where we only have approval ratings for leaders and no disapprovals?

  11. Interesting interview with Anne Applebaum, a Russian expert —

    ‘I am afraid of a new Russian occupation of parts of Eastern Europe. Also of a new Russian campaign to exert influence in Germany or other parts Europe, aimed at making continental politics less democratic. I am afraid of a US trade war and even a shooting war with China.’

    ‘Yes, though the poorest Americans voted for Clinton, many relatively wealthy people voted for Trump and generally it’s a mistake to think that economics explains Trump. The US is doing relatively well, the economy has significantly recovered since 2008, unemployment rates are low. I would say rather that his appeal to the working class was cultural: “I’ll bring back the kinds of jobs your fathers had,” and, by implication, the whiter, simpler post-war world when America had no real economic competition.’

    ‘SPIEGEL: Do you think the risk of a nuclear confrontation is growing?

    Applebaum: The Soviet Union was, by the 1970s and 1980s, relatively stable and predictable. Putin’s Russia is much more volatile. Nuclear policy is really in the hands of one person, or a small group of people, instead of a huge party-state apparatus. The possibility of a mistake is greater now.’

  12. Puffy
    London is my favourite city. The hop on hop off bus is a great way to see London. St Pauls/ Tate Modern. Tower of London/ Tower Bridge. HOP/Westminster Abbey. Trafalgar Square/National Gallery. I think you’d probably prefer the V&A to the Science or Natural History Museum. Brompton Oratory. Hyde Park incl Speakers Corner on Sunday.
    Given you are there in winter it should be a lot easier to see more. The Rothko Seagram Murals are my absolute favourite place in the world.

  13. Puff
    Further to the Diogenes recommendations above: the National Portrait Gallery, London Zoo and see a West-end show


  14. Morning all

    Feel so hollow. The horrendous carnage that occurred in my stomping patch in the city yesterday, has me so despondent. And Trump is actually President. Feels like a horror movie.

  15. BK ♡
    Thanks for your effort this morning.
    Would anybody like to explain the Bill Leak “Cartoon”.

    Barack Obama’s terms as president of the U.S.A. have expired, leaving me feeling that a distant relative, much loved and highly respected, has died, leaving me his library.

    I cannot seem to get any further with this and I won’t even try.
    G’day all.

  16. Morning all. Trump is president, starting with a humble and conciliatory speech, what could possibly go wrong? Comparisons of his speech to Hitler becoming chancellor are soooo unfair. Hitler appealed to nationalism:
    “Peasants, workers, and bourgeoisie must all join together to provide the building blocks for the new Reich. The National Government will therefore regard it as its first and foremost duty to re-establish Volksgemeinschaft – the unity of spirit and will of our volk. It will preserve and defend the foundations upon which the power of our nation rests.

    Whereas Trump appealed to patriotism:
    “At the bedrock of our politics will be a total allegiance to the United States of America, and through our loyalty to our country, we will rediscover our loyalty to each other. When you open your heart to patriotism, there is no room for prejudice.”

    And Hitler promised to return the people to work by rebuilding the Reich with new Autobahns. Whereas Trump has promised to get people off welfare and back to work making America great again, rebuilding highways. No similarities at all.

  17. Puffy
    I love getting in the front seat of London’s red buses,a big kid i am and riding around, have a look at routes from memory No 11 was great took you so many places

  18. Incoming Premier Gladys B has something going for her. Alan Jones doesn’t like her.

    Bronwyn Bishop probably thinks that Gladys is another one of these ‘Socialists’. She looks to be in the same vein as recent Liberal Premiers in NSW, a pragmatic centrist rather than one of the hard right ideologues who dominate the party federally and in some other states. No wonder Alan doesn’t like her.

  19. I didn’t see Donald’s inauguration speech, but note that a number of commentators, including a couple of posters here, have described Trump’s inauguration speech as a campaign speech. Reminds me of Tony Abbott, who remained in campaign mode in his 2013 victory speech and, indeed, for his whole PMship. Fortunately Abbott was too incompetent to leave much of a legacy. Hopefully it will prove the same with Trump.

  20. So, Laurie Oakes ..the ‘doyen’ of the CPG ..lazily reaches, once again, into his well worn bag of meaningless clichés, and pulls out: “press the re-set button”..

    ..anything to avoid the hard work of policy and/or political analysis..

  21. KayJay
    Saturday, January 21, 2017 at 8:44 am
    Would anybody like to explain the Bill Leak “Cartoon”.

    If the Obama’s know Trump does not like Mexicans ( the wall remember) it makes sense.

  22. Donald Trump’s Journey From Degenerate ‘Con Man’ To President

    Americans didn’t really like him as a nominee. They still don’t like him as he takes the oath of office.

    WASHINGTON ― Donald Trump has been called a con man and a huckster. An unstable pathological liar. A degenerate. And that’s just by other Republicans.

    At noon Friday, they and every other American will call him Mr. President.

    “God has a sense of humor,” said John Weaver, who ran Ohio Gov. John Kasich’s campaign during the GOP primaries. “ We preyed on people’s fears. And all of that caught up with us. And we have no one to blame but ourselves.

  23. socrates @ #20 Saturday, January 21, 2017 at 8:53 am

    Speaking of crazy old men, Alan Jones seems to think that a light year is a measure of time:
    I reckon Alan could make the run to Dan Murphies in under twelve parsecs.

    I thank you. You have made a valiant attempt to introduce rationality into Mr. Jones’s bilious BS. I like your language. Would that we could lure the said Mr. Jones onto our Hyper Space enabled “Good Ship …..” and set the controls to enable first stop Vela a far, far distant constellation. Additional places on board reserved for the worthy of this planet. Book your local MP on board please. Time payment available.
    Naming rights also available for our craft. The stasis chambers equipped with surround sound of one hand clapping. Vision loops of occupants looking into a mirror running continuously.
    BTW – for the uninitiated a parsec is the distance a NLP donor can see an opportunity to fleece the public purse. Yes, Muriel, that is a ******* long way, indeed.
    Good news story for me so far. The “Coles” delivery man assures me he “don’t give a rat’s ass” for Mr. D. Trump and he (Trump) can go grab himself on his own pussy.
    Translation for this sedate old chap required. ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳

  24. puff, the magic dragon. @ #2 Saturday, January 21, 2017 at 7:04 am

    It is a nice cool 4 degrees c here in London. I had a nice walk along the embankment. Are there any suggestions on things I should see in London during my stay. I have been to the British Museum. There is a place on the Embankment with a display and vid on the history of executions.
    I might see that, in keeping with Era Trumpian.

    I was in London for three weeks last May and saw many great places. Depends on what you like, but I went to the following, which do not charge an entrance fee and are terrific to visit:

    The National Gallery
    The Victoria and Albert Museum (the V&A)
    The Imperial War Museum
    The Wallace Collection (fantastic)
    John Soane’s House
    Kenilworth House at Hampstead Heath
    Tate Gallery
    Tate Modern Gallery

    There are many places that do charge a (usually hefty) entrance fee but are well worth the visit. Two in particular are the Churchill War rooms and the Globe Theatre.

    The Borough Market is also worth the visit.

  25. frednk @ #24 Saturday, January 21, 2017 at 9:20 am

    Saturday, January 21, 2017 at 8:44 am
    Would anybody like to explain the Bill Leak “Cartoon”.

    If the Obama’s know Trump does not like Mexicans ( the wall remember) it makes sense.

    Thanks VM. I think I am a little more vague than usual this morning. I think Bill Leak an excellent artist, but piss poor human being.

  26. Dan Gross
    Dan Gross – ‏@DanJGross

    Crowd count is in:
    Trump 2017: 250,000
    Obama 2013: 1,000,000
    Obama 2009: 1,800,000
    9:04 AM – 20 Jan 2017
    8,172 RETWEETS9,839 LIKES

  27. I am trying hard to boycott anything to do with Trump this morning but unfortunately I walked into the loungeroom while my wife had the channel 7 chatties going off about the inauguration.
    One Bimbo comes out as states “Trump is a man of the people”
    I near choked to death. How stupid can people get. A man of the people. FFS
    Crikey it’s going to be a long four years if the idiot last that long.

  28. Kayjay
    Thanks. Like you, I would love to see Alan Jones chosen for our first attempt at a manned mission to Andromeda, at sub light speed. He could take Brandis for company.

    Also, those sort of nonsense remarks put Jones’ denial of climate change science into perspective don’t they.

    On the plus side, if Jones hated Berejiklian, I am warming to her already 🙂

  29. Yes the bridge is the tram overpass, but the damaged bit only carries the bike lane. Hence lightly loaded. Hence very strange it has suffered failure so soon.

  30. Morning all.

    Reposting again as it is apposite.

    It was obvious to anyone paying attention that the incoming administration would be blatantly corrupt. But would it at least be efficient in its corruption?

    Many Trump voters certainly thought they were choosing a smart businessman who would get things done. And even those who knew better may have hoped that the president-elect, his ego finally sated, would settle down to running the country — or at least delegate the boring business of governing America to people actually capable of doing the job.

    But it’s not happening. Mr. Trump hasn’t pivoted, matured, whatever term you prefer. He’s still the insecure, short-attention-span egomaniac he always was. Worse, he is surrounding himself with people who share many of his flaws — perhaps because they’re the sort of people with whom he is comfortable.

    So the typical Trump nominee, in everything from economics to diplomacy to national security, is ethically challenged, ignorant about the area of policy he or she is supposed to manage and deeply incurious. Some, like Michael Flynn, Mr. Trump’s choice as national security adviser, are even as addicted as their boss to internet conspiracy theories. This isn’t a team that will compensate for the commander in chief’s weaknesses; on the contrary, it’s a team that will amplify them.

  31. Socrates
    #34 Saturday, January 21, 2017 at 9:40 am
    Yes, Oh! Wise one.
    I see my glaring error. Sub light speed, of course, would take much, much longer. How many more furlongs of time only a supreme mathamatatics perfessor would be able to calculate.
    Just as well, he said, borrowing one of Lizzie’s sighs, we can manage a half hearted chuckle this morning.
    We know, do we not, that as in a bereavement of a loved one, the first period of time is the hardest emotionally and as times goes by the pain becomes less but never leaves us.
    What’s screwing up my delirious scenario is the probability that Mr. Trump will continue to reshape the world in his image inflicting refreshers continually.
    I now retire to sort out my groceries and repack the refreezerator
    Hooroo. Ƹ̴Ӂ̴Ʒ Ƹ̴Ӂ̴Ʒ

  32. Socrates
    I know people that worked on the construction of that bridge and tram line.

    My guess is dodgy construction, not design.

    Although, knowing some of the Adelaide engineering design consultancies….. not yours, of course.

  33. puff, the magic dragon. @ #2 Saturday, January 21, 2017 at 7:04 am

    It is a nice cool 4 degrees c here in London. I had a nice walk along the embankment. Are there any suggestions on things I should see in London during my stay. I have been to the British Museum. There is a place on the Embankment with a display and vid on the history of executions.
    I might see that, in keeping with Era Trumpian.

    One of my favourites was Greenwich, with the Royal Observatory and Maritime Museum among others. It has a different feel to London and is easy to get to on the Tube or the light rail from the Tower of London.

  34. Wow, I havent been catching up with the Shovel for a while. There are some pearlers this year….

    “People Pursued By Centrelink Advised To Become Multi-National Companies”

  35. Victoria – not that it matters that much I suppose, as it is darned cold in Washington but…….numbers according to the Washington Post for Trump………”a shockingly sparse crowd”……………….numbers according to ABC radio news………..”hundreds of thousands turned out”…………………..News, in the eyes of the beholders I guess or even just through one eye.

  36. C@Tmomma
    Friday, January 20, 2017 at 9:28 pm
    “When that guy goes to jail after murdering 4, including a baby, he’s going to get 7 shades of hell beaten out of him by the other inmates, as the guards suddenly find something else to do. Just sayin.”

    There are two misconceptions inherent in this post, that I see quite often after high profile crime take place.

    The first is that most likely this offender will be separated into management unit before then going into “protection from protection”. This is usually reserved for prisoners like ex-cops, terrorist offenders, and those who have burnt every bridge in the system. I doubt he will come into contact with many other prisoners, especially prior to sentencing.

    The second is that prison officers turn a blind eye to violence in prison. This misconception does a poor service to the men and women who work in prisons largely without thanks from the community. And serves to perpetuate the stereotype that they are some cowboy outfit devoid of a sense of professionalism.

    This crime has caused severe shock in the community, and it is understandable that we wish to see swift punishment of the offender. But prisons are places to facilitate punishment of a lack of freedom, not to administer it through unchecked violence.

  37. BiS
    “One of my favourites was Greenwich, with the Royal Observatory”
    Dont start me. On a short stopover, I walked there from the city (I was on a 3rd World travel budget). I wanted, needed, to see the meridian. You can imagine my temper when confronted with an entry fee that equalled one week of travelling costs in, say, Romania.

    I had to make do with looking at it through the fence.

    I hate London.

  38. Damn cold is normal for Washington in January, averages temp range -2 to +6. Inauguration day was not exactly a heatwave but it was relatively warm, cloudy, range 6-10, like Hobart or a cold day in Melbourne. It’s not the weather that kept the crowds away.

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