BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor

One stray poll brings the BludgerTrack aggregate back to life, but the result is much the same as it was at the close of business last year.

BludgerTrack returns following the break of the New Year polling drought, courtesy of GetUp! ReachTEL poll and the year’s debut for Essential Research – although BludgerTrack features only the latter, as it includes only media polls for the sake of consistency. Since the Essential result is the only data point available from the past month, it more or less single-handedly determines where things currently stand, which is to say in much the same place as they did before the start of the drought.

The Essential results on the primary vote were Coalition 38% (up one), Labor 37% (steady), Greens 9% (down one), One Nation 8% (steady) and Nick Xenophon Team 4% (up one), with Labor maintaining its 53-47 lead on two-party preferred. Being the first poll of the year, these results are purely from a one week sample of 1017, and not a rolling average combined the results of two consecutive weeks. The poll also featured the monthly leadership ratings, which both leaders down on “don’t know” for their personal approval. Malcolm Turnbull is up three on approval to 37% and two on approval to 48%, while Bill Shorten is respectively up two to 37% and six to 44%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 39-28.

Essential did not features its usual supplementary questions on selected current issues this week, but we do have an international survey by Ipsos that used a variety of measures to probe for Trumpian sentiment around the globe. This found Australia generally landing in the middle of the pack, but one exception was that 48% of Australians rated their country as being in decline, which compared favourably with most other countries – in particular the United States on 60%, and the United Kingdom on 57%.

My paywalled Crikey content has included a review of Mike Baird’s polling and electoral record from today:

Given the circumstances of his departure, and his success in keeping his nose clean as leader of a state that has become proverbial for political malfeasance, most reacted to the news sympathetically (Mark Latham being a seemingly inevitable exception). Even so, Baird leaves office with a patchy electoral record, and with recent polls suggesting the public was growing increasingly disenchanted with his leadership.

And yesterday, an analysis of the electorates where the Coalition is most likely to be punished for the Centrelink debacle:

Reports this week suggest the next targets will be disability support and, particularly dangerously, the aged pension … The highest concentrations of those on unemployment benefits tend to be in low-income areas of the big cities and remote regions with high indigenous populations. The former account for the most reliable Labor territory in the country, while electorates encompassing the latter usually bring together white conservative and indigenous Labor voters, with the former being decisively greater in number. But when pensioners come in to view, real problems start to emerge — especially for the Nationals, whose rural and regional heartland is distinctive for being whiter, poorer and older than the big cities.

And on Monday, a look at the Queensland seats most likely to fall to One Nation, based on analysis of the 2016 Senate vote:

Clear at the top of the list for the LNP is Lockyer, which covers the rural areas between Ipswich and Toowoomba … Labor’s danger areas include the two seats that cover Hanson’s old stamping ground of Ipswich, where the threat is intensified by the weakness of the LNP, since the One Nation candidates will have a low bar to clear in overtaking the LNP and scooping up their preferences.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,696 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor”

  1. Bob Day’s lawyers urge the High Court to ignore the evidence! They must have alternative facts 🙂
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-24/bob-days-lawyers-tell-high-court-to-reject-evidence/8207284

    This case is almost funny if you are not Bob Day… or the Australian taxpayer. Even if what Day says is true, and the other witnesses false, can any lawyer present please explain to me how this “sale” to a friend was not some kind of sham transaction? What were Day’s motives in selling? What were his expectations? If the property was valuable and had guaranteed rental income, why did he not simply put it on the market?

  2. BK,
    As you are around I was just going to suggest to you, apropos your comment earlier today about running up against your download limit, that maybe you should investigate changing to an Unlimited downloads each month plan. That’s what I have, it’s ADSL2+ and cost me about $100/month. It’s worth it because everyone gets to download whatever they want and the arguments over who gets those last couple of gigabites have just evaporated! Notwithstanding that you don’t have that problem, it would allow you to watch everything you want and compile our daily news breakfast and download it to us efficiently. 🙂

  3. From the New Yorker article:

    The President’s remarks to the C.I.A. on Saturday, delivered in front of a hallowed memorial, stirred anger and astonishment among current and former agency officials.

    It’s just another prop for Herr Drumpf.

  4. C@t
    Thanks. I am tied in to a Telstra contract for another 12 months at the end of which time I shall be reviewing my arrangements. I think this last month was an aberration due to my extensive binge on SBS’s fantastic Nordic (and other European) fare.

  5. BK
    We have an IINET bundle for mobile and internet (we are in the eastern suburbs) with broadband (no NBN in our electorate yet). On the whole we are fairly happy with it.

  6. BK

    When you do change ISP I recommend South Australias own. Internode.
    Similar unlimited price plans. Comes with Fetch TV so you can still get BbC channels CNN and the like.

    Service is good and the call centres are in Adelaide.

  7. Charles

    Confirmation that Trump thinks that money can buy anything. He buys a cheer squad. His problem is that he then forgets he paid for it and believes they love him!

  8. Trump White House vows to stop China taking South China Sea islands

    The new US administration of President Donald Trump vowed on Monday that the United States would prevent China from taking over territory in international waters in the South China Sea, something Chinese state media has warned would require Washington to “wage war.”

    Military experts said that while the US Navy has extensive capabilities in Asia to stage blockading operations with ships, submarines and planes, any such move against China’s growing naval fleets would risk dangerous escalation.

    Washington-based South China Sea expert Mira Rapp-Hooper at the Centre for a New American Security called the threats to bar China’s access in the South China Sea “incredible” and said it had no basis in international law.

    “A blockade – which is what would be required to actually bar access – is an act of war,” she added.

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/policy/defence/trump-white-house-vows-to-stop-china-taking-south-china-sea-islands-20170123-gtxf70#ixzz4We8c96eY
    Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook

  9. blanket

    The death of the TPP is good news. The reason Labor has been blocking it are the ISDS provisions.

    Something about sovereignty

  10. PR

    Trump doing a blockade takes us straight to the brink we saw with the Cuban Missile Crisis.

    I think he is just crazy enough to do it.

  11. guytaur Tuesday, January 24, 2017 at 2:37 pm
    PR
    Trump doing a blockade takes us straight to the brink we saw with the Cuban Missile Crisis.

    I think he is just crazy enough to do it.

    *****************************************
    I am with you, Guytaur – he is nuts enough by himself but he has a few other ‘hotheads’ in the cabinet to back up his ‘sabre-rattling’ with the Chinese ….. I fear the worst with this cretin …

  12. BK
    I have friends building the NBN towers and had the experience of sitting in on a CDAP meeting for the planning approval of one of the towers near your area.

    I dont know much about speeds/packages/choke points of the fixed wireless on offer. Do you think it will be crud?

    Will they force you onto it by turning off the copper ADSL?

  13. Tim Watts

    “When you look at the major attacks around the world, the vectors have targeted the weak spots … they’ve targeted often campaign staff, or they’ve targeted staff of elected representatives, so it is really important that this message filters out because you’re only as strong as your weakest link in this space.”

    Watts, who had previously worked for Telstra before getting into politics, says that security is taken much more seriously in the private sector than the public sector, where the focus has more been on ministers and the handling of classified materials. Politicians, in addition to their APH emails — which the Chinese had access to for most of a year back in 2014 — are on a variety of online services, including their electorate systems, social media, their personal phone and email accounts, Slack accounts and other communications.

    “MPs have multiple people touching those platforms. They have staff, they have campaign volunteers, they have a range of actors with access to those accounts, and that increases the security risk significantly. These sites are getting owned every day of the week. If you have the same password on one, you’re owned on all of them,” Watts said.
    A backbench MP might seem like a low risk for an attack, but Watts says often these attacks have a long lead time, so the junior opposition backbencher hacked today might be a future defence minister.

    While Watts can teach his Labor colleagues, there is no training across party lines yet. If politicians and their staff had basic awareness to keep an eye out for spear-phishing attacks, social engineering, and proper security management, Watts says they would mitigate much of the risks facing parliamentarians.

  14. Shift

    I have noticed only lower prices not lower service since TPG bought Internode so far.

    I hopi TPG keeps the silo business model running.

  15. BK

    Service is good and the call centres are in Adelaide.

    Gt’s suggestion good. First point OK but second point great because if they don’t deliver you can visit them. 😀

  16. Speaking of appalling ISPs, you should all just be thankful you are not on the new NBN satellite service. I just counted the number of maintenance outages we have had this month – 17! Yes, 17 so far in January alone – and the month is not even over yet. This has been fairly typical of every month since we moved off the (rock solid!) “interim” service we had up till last year. I wish we could move back to that service.

    Annoyingly, I just got another email from my ISP apologizing for the quality of the NBN service, and assuring me that NBN Co was gradually “working their way through the issues” and offering me a free data allowance for next month … which would be fine if the bloody service was ever up long enough to make use of it!

  17. Is anyone else having problems with the Guardian website?

    The last few days I’ve found it really laggy with pages not fully loading.
    I’m using Chrome.

  18. P1

    My luck is running out. Construction on Fraudband has started in my area. So its going to be node not Fibre.

    I still wish voters had listened to the Techies. Small comfort for those on sattelite I know. At least with fibre everywhere you migh get some use out of it.

  19. CANBERRA – Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has offloaded his stake in some of his hands-off mega investments in overseas tax havens where he has kept his millions while in office.

    While legal, these financial arrangements have been attacked by the Labor opposition over appearances that Turnbull — who is estimated to have a net worth of about $200 million — is out touch and potentially soft on the tax dealings of the top end of town.

    In a fresh update to the Register of Members’ Interest, Turnbull has revealed he has divested himself of interests in the Delaware (U.S.) based double leveraged equity fund, Seven Locks Enhanced fund.

    He and his wife Lucy Turnbull also no longer have interests in the Brazil based, offshore-managed fund, domiciled in the Cayman Islands, called 3G Natural resources.

    Turnbull notes that the fund had been wound up by the fund manager and the bulk of the “redemption proceeds” have been returned to investors.

    The Prime Minister is understood to have several more locally and offshore-managed funds, many based in the Cayman Islands, including CVC Opportunity fund, Zebedee Growth fund and the Bowery Opportunity fund.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/01/23/malcolm-turnbull-offloads-a-couple-of-tax-havens/

    Andrew Leigh ‏@ALeighMP · 3h3 hours ago
    Wouldn’t it be nice if Turnbull decided to stop investing entirely in tax havens & start cracking down on them?

    Wouldn’t it be nice if Turnbull decided to stop investing entirely in tax havens & start cracking down on them?

  20. Lizzie

    Turnbull notes that the fund had been wound up by the fund manager and the bulk of the “redemption proceeds” have been returned to investors.

    The fund wound at a loss?

  21. Charles,
    Thank you(and welcome 🙂 ) for the link to the politicus article:
    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/01/23/cbs-confirms-reports-donald-trump-brought-cheering-props-cia-visit.html

    It chimed in perfectly with his article:
    http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/trumps-vainglorious-affront-to-the-c-i-a?mbid=social_twitter

    And Trump’s post visit Tweet:

    At 7:35 a.m. on Sunday, Trump responded on Twitter to the negative reactions to his comments. “Had a great meeting at CIA Headquarters yesterday, packed house, paid great respect to Wall, long standing ovations, amazing people. WIN!”

    What a charlatan that man is!

  22. Seth Meyers consoles Trump over tiny crowd size: ‘You’re still the most popular president–since Obama’

    “Here’s the thing, Mr. President, it was a perfectly respectable crowd—full of people who love you and are excited you won. It’s just not a record breaking crowd. And it’s not your fault you had to follow [Barack Obama], people just really liked him. He won the electoral college and the popular vote.”

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/01/seth-meyers-consoles-trump-over-tiny-crowd-size-youre-still-the-most-popular-president-since-obama/

  23. P1, my satellite service hasn’t failed once. It’s far, far better than the previous service.

    My only complaint is that they haven’t got around to removing the old infrastructure, so I have a forest of satellite dishes on the roof.

  24. phoenixred @ #1669 Tuesday, January 24, 2017 at 2:44 pm

    guytaur Tuesday, January 24, 2017 at 2:37 pm
    PR
    Trump doing a blockade takes us straight to the brink we saw with the Cuban Missile Crisis.
    I think he is just crazy enough to do it.
    *****************************************
    I am with you, Guytaur – he is nuts enough by himself but he has a few other ‘hotheads’ in the cabinet to back up his ‘sabre-rattling’ with the Chinese ….. I fear the worst with this cretin …

    It worries me that the sanest and most realistic member of his Cabinet has the nickname “Mad Dog”.

  25. zoomster @ #1688 Tuesday, January 24, 2017 at 3:39 pm

    P1, my satellite service hasn’t failed once. It’s far, far better than the previous service.
    My only complaint is that they haven’t got around to removing the old infrastructure, so I have a forest of satellite dishes on the roof.

    Yes – me too. In total I have 6 satellite dishes on my roof – only 2 of which are currently used (one for TV, one Internet). The various companies never remove the old ones, and I am afraid to do so in case the roof starts leaking from all the holes!

    I have no idea what the problem is here – and obviously neither does NBN Co. Apart from the 17 official “maintenance outages”, my service drops out a couple of times each day, for anywhere from a couple of minutes to hours. Also, I get many “partial” failures when some websites work but others don’t (typically, this is because of a DNS failure, which has nothing to do with my service).

    My ISP publicly blames NBN Co (they have a blanket apology to all their customers up on their web site effectively saying there is not much they can do about it) and the maintenance outages are all definitely “official” NBN outages – we get the notifications from them, not my ISP.

    It’s a completely crap service. But I have no other option. I can’t even go back to the old service, which worked well – it’s not offered any more.

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