BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor

One stray poll brings the BludgerTrack aggregate back to life, but the result is much the same as it was at the close of business last year.

BludgerTrack returns following the break of the New Year polling drought, courtesy of GetUp! ReachTEL poll and the year’s debut for Essential Research – although BludgerTrack features only the latter, as it includes only media polls for the sake of consistency. Since the Essential result is the only data point available from the past month, it more or less single-handedly determines where things currently stand, which is to say in much the same place as they did before the start of the drought.

The Essential results on the primary vote were Coalition 38% (up one), Labor 37% (steady), Greens 9% (down one), One Nation 8% (steady) and Nick Xenophon Team 4% (up one), with Labor maintaining its 53-47 lead on two-party preferred. Being the first poll of the year, these results are purely from a one week sample of 1017, and not a rolling average combined the results of two consecutive weeks. The poll also featured the monthly leadership ratings, which both leaders down on “don’t know” for their personal approval. Malcolm Turnbull is up three on approval to 37% and two on approval to 48%, while Bill Shorten is respectively up two to 37% and six to 44%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 39-28.

Essential did not features its usual supplementary questions on selected current issues this week, but we do have an international survey by Ipsos that used a variety of measures to probe for Trumpian sentiment around the globe. This found Australia generally landing in the middle of the pack, but one exception was that 48% of Australians rated their country as being in decline, which compared favourably with most other countries – in particular the United States on 60%, and the United Kingdom on 57%.

My paywalled Crikey content has included a review of Mike Baird’s polling and electoral record from today:

Given the circumstances of his departure, and his success in keeping his nose clean as leader of a state that has become proverbial for political malfeasance, most reacted to the news sympathetically (Mark Latham being a seemingly inevitable exception). Even so, Baird leaves office with a patchy electoral record, and with recent polls suggesting the public was growing increasingly disenchanted with his leadership.

And yesterday, an analysis of the electorates where the Coalition is most likely to be punished for the Centrelink debacle:

Reports this week suggest the next targets will be disability support and, particularly dangerously, the aged pension … The highest concentrations of those on unemployment benefits tend to be in low-income areas of the big cities and remote regions with high indigenous populations. The former account for the most reliable Labor territory in the country, while electorates encompassing the latter usually bring together white conservative and indigenous Labor voters, with the former being decisively greater in number. But when pensioners come in to view, real problems start to emerge — especially for the Nationals, whose rural and regional heartland is distinctive for being whiter, poorer and older than the big cities.

And on Monday, a look at the Queensland seats most likely to fall to One Nation, based on analysis of the 2016 Senate vote:

Clear at the top of the list for the LNP is Lockyer, which covers the rural areas between Ipswich and Toowoomba … Labor’s danger areas include the two seats that cover Hanson’s old stamping ground of Ipswich, where the threat is intensified by the weakness of the LNP, since the One Nation candidates will have a low bar to clear in overtaking the LNP and scooping up their preferences.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,696 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor”

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  1. SK
    “Isolationism isnt what it used to be.”

    Agreed. Trump wants the world to stop so America can get off. But the world will keep on going, and leave America behind.

  2. KayJay – sorry I didn’t answer straight away but I was otherwise occupied for a little while.

    Yes indeed, I see whole movies happening in my head and replay scenarios over and over. The characters often speak for themselves and I kinda like I am just transcribing what they are saying/doing (even though it is my imagination at work).

    I think a little bit of madness is requires to be a fiction writer.

  3. Time for the Libs to dump Malcolm and bring in a real conservative He Man like Dutton to scream boats like he really means it.

  4. Vogon Poet
    #1600 Tuesday, January 24, 2017 at 11:53 am
    While I would never doubt the word of one with your noble heritage, I do wonder as to how you came by this information. I can detect, from the corner of an eye, stealthy movements and the sound of those little sneaky farts. The daughters say the farts emanate from my direction which I categorically reject in the manner of Mr Barnstable Rejoice denying knowing anything at all.
    What say you now – I suspect Dickheadileaks at work here. You, of course, are holed up in the Traal embassy. Pray tell, givvus the key to your secret code which, I now understand, is kept inside your bucking hat. :really clever emoji:

  5. Thanks Slav G. I reckon lots of voters reckon they were totally dudded at the last election. Be very hard for Malcolm to change that perception now. He’s had his chance and squibbed it (though don’t tell Mark Kenny)

  6. KJ, get that new fandangled ebook reader of yours and download the trilogy ( in five parts) Hitchhikers Guide To The Universe if you want to know more, if not, Don’t Panic.

  7. jenauthor @ #1607 Tuesday, January 24, 2017 at 12:16 pm

    KayJay – sorry I didn’t answer straight away but I was otherwise occupied for a little while.
    Yes indeed, I see whole movies happening in my head and replay scenarios over and over. The characters often speak for themselves and I kinda like I am just transcribing what they are saying/doing (even though it is my imagination at work).
    I think a little bit of madness is requires to be a fiction writer.

    I now repeat what I just said to myself.
    “Oh! Thank you! ”
    Repeat same
    and Fire for affect.
    Thank you. I do this constantly and have the greatest enjoyment and just plain fun.
    The silly stuff I write I have said is like what used to be called (probably still is) automatic writing. It writes itself. Pity it can’t spell and is pretty crook with names.
    Thank you.
    Regarding madness. Where would we be without love ❓
    You have made my day. :kiss: ♡♡❇ ❇ ❇ ❇ ❇

  8. Being a PM is so frustrating for Malcolm. All he wants to do is get Bill Shorten into a small room and scream at him until Bill does whatever he wants. Instead, all he can do is get bitchy at Press Conferences. That’s not fair.

  9. vogon poet @ #1612 Tuesday, January 24, 2017 at 12:24 pm

    KJ, get that new fandangled ebook reader of yours and download the trilogy ( in five parts) Hitchhikers Guide To The Universe if you want to know more, if not, Don’t Panic.

    Dang me pardner. No wonder the daughters say I don’t listen and don’t remember.
    Of course, the old hitchhikers guide to the universe trick 99.
    Lunch time chez KJ. Salad rolls specially prepared by the chef.

  10. Robo tax debt on centrelink is a precursor to cracking down on the cash economy. Tradies beware! If you have been accepting cash income through your bank account (yes, indeed they do!) and not declaring it, you are next in line.

    Maybe you bought things on Credit Card and paid that off with your cash? Not nearly smart enough. Maybe you put it in an overseas bank account and use it when travelling. Still not good enough. As the shovel says….

  11. Malcolm is screechy angry about the Essential results.

    Calling ALP & Shorten gutless about TPP (worst gutlessness in 30 years or some such) really shows how scared he’s getting. If, as the figs imply, this week was really bad for the Libs … the background rumblings must be deafening within the party.

    And of course, they trot out “cyber-security” (would Tehan even know what the ‘dark net’ is? I doubt it) to cause more fear and loathing in the community in response.

  12. Jeez, blaming Bill Shorten and Labor is already working really well for Turnbull and the Coalition, so more of the same!?!

    54-46 😀

  13. Ratsak would too (being from around that neck of the woods).

    We constituents of Dr Mike are mostly of fine breeding and taste.

    But anyone would have reacted the same. After all how else would you react to a man who isn’t there?

  14. “Turnbull said the briefing invitation list included Bill Shorten and Labor’s national secretary, Noah Carroll, the Liberal party federal director, Tony Nutt, Pauline Hanson, Nick Xenophon and the Greens.

    Labor, the Greens and Xenophon confirmed to Guardian Australia they had yet to receive any invitation, though Xenophon said he had not checked his spam folder.” 😀

  15. No doubt Mal’s office have put the hard word on the ABC, so in response we get Ciobo and Tehnan pretending to actually be doing something while the ALP remain invisible.

    Current ratio of govt blatherers to Labor, is probably 20:1

    It’s a pity that both sound so gormless and clearly don’t have a clue, defaulting in Ciobo’s case to blaming Labor blah blah blah.

    Mal will be happier when Leigh returns to 7.30.

  16. Jen, he has been having these ‘problems’ for such an extended period of time that I am very concerned for his iron levels.

  17. They bang on about Shorten because they sure as hell can’t talk about themselves. It’s Shorten or Centrelink , Census , TPP, NBN , Gonski , Health ,unemployment, the economy , Climate change action etc etc

  18. I can’t remember how low Abbott took the LNP approval ratings or indeed how long low figures lasted. Judging how quickly Mals has taken the LNPto get to the 46 figure since the election, it may well be that it will trigger a move because of the rapid decline rather than the depths it could sink to. Would a negative figure of 43 to 57 see a change or the lack of an alternative leader cause hesitation in the ranks no matter how low it got to :))

  19. Malcolm is just a shit PM and I think he knows it deep down.

    He’s been shit at everything else he’s tried in public life so why would PMing be any different.

  20. The GG is on day #567 of their anti renewables campaign, I suppose it is a break from 18c and safe schools.
    The latest is more reports from Coalition backbenchers echoing Abbot’s call to dump the RET entirely.
    The reason for this is solely to differentiate themselves from the ALP and give them an attack line.
    Nothing about policy or rationality all they want is something to blame Labor for.

  21. The TPP would have been another hand-out to rich people looking to rent-seek. It had no benefits to society as a whole. I am glad that this greedfest, staunchly advocated by conservatives and many of their centrist partners in crime, won’t happen.

  22. I’m not sure if I follow the methodology of Essential, but I understand it is a rolling average over two weeks.

    Does this mean that this week’s poll was 55 – 45 to bring the average to 54 – 46?

  23. Geez, Malcolm Turnbull could even give Trump a run for his money in a thin-skin contest.
    What a petulant sook.
    Has there ever been a more hollow person in the role of PM?
    Many people say that Turnbull has been a great disappointment.
    Not to me he hasn’t.
    I always suspected he was the shallow, empty and frankly vacuous person we see acting as our PM.
    Turnbulls political career can be likened to the dog that finally catches the car it has been chasing so hard for so long.
    Now he has the prize he has no fucking clue what to do with it.
    If Turnbulls PMship could be summed up in one word it would have to be pointless.

  24. Turnbulls view of himself is probably:
    . Brilliant academic career
    . Brilliant journalistic career
    . Brilliant legal career
    . Brilliant marriage
    . Brilliant business and merchant banking career
    . Brilliant campaign on the republic (even though he lost).

    He no doubt sees Shorten as
    . Maybe OK at Uni
    . Couldn’t do “real”law so went into the unions.
    . Mixed up in all sorts of dodgy union “deals”
    . ALP “machine man”
    . First marriage (into a “Lib” family) failed

    Yet somehow the party Shorten leads is smashing his lot in the polls. It must be truly galling and eating away at his self esteem every waking (and perhaps sleeping) moment.

    Yep, I can see why he is so bitter and twisted. And strangely I don’t have a lot of sympathy.

  25. I don’t think that Mal gives a shit about Shorten personally, it’s just all he’s got left, and he’s increasingly desperate.
    All he cares about is staying in that damn job that he considers his due, given just how brilliant he undoubtedly is, in his own mind.

  26. Helen Razer in Crikey points out astutely that liberals deny the economic policy choices that created the election result:

    If one mentions, for example, the recent fact of a historic 16-point swing by extremely low-income voters in the US from Dem to GOP, one is understood less as an amateur psephologist and more as an oblivious racist. As though recognising the conditions that have been historically ideal in the West for racism and racism are the same thing.

    Racism is very real, and, as Black Lives Matter sensibly reminds us, expressed in a real economic way. What is also real is the refusal by liberals to permit economic discussion beyond, “Do you think Trump is going to fix that stuff? Hahaha you useful idiot.”

    Trump is clearly not going to repair the gross economic inequality of America. But Trump clearly said, unlike Hillary Clinton, that he would. He was the only nominee making that promise. This does not make him the better nominee. It did make him the only one willing to concede that wages had diminished.

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