BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor

One stray poll brings the BludgerTrack aggregate back to life, but the result is much the same as it was at the close of business last year.

BludgerTrack returns following the break of the New Year polling drought, courtesy of GetUp! ReachTEL poll and the year’s debut for Essential Research – although BludgerTrack features only the latter, as it includes only media polls for the sake of consistency. Since the Essential result is the only data point available from the past month, it more or less single-handedly determines where things currently stand, which is to say in much the same place as they did before the start of the drought.

The Essential results on the primary vote were Coalition 38% (up one), Labor 37% (steady), Greens 9% (down one), One Nation 8% (steady) and Nick Xenophon Team 4% (up one), with Labor maintaining its 53-47 lead on two-party preferred. Being the first poll of the year, these results are purely from a one week sample of 1017, and not a rolling average combined the results of two consecutive weeks. The poll also featured the monthly leadership ratings, which both leaders down on “don’t know” for their personal approval. Malcolm Turnbull is up three on approval to 37% and two on approval to 48%, while Bill Shorten is respectively up two to 37% and six to 44%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 39-28.

Essential did not features its usual supplementary questions on selected current issues this week, but we do have an international survey by Ipsos that used a variety of measures to probe for Trumpian sentiment around the globe. This found Australia generally landing in the middle of the pack, but one exception was that 48% of Australians rated their country as being in decline, which compared favourably with most other countries – in particular the United States on 60%, and the United Kingdom on 57%.

My paywalled Crikey content has included a review of Mike Baird’s polling and electoral record from today:

Given the circumstances of his departure, and his success in keeping his nose clean as leader of a state that has become proverbial for political malfeasance, most reacted to the news sympathetically (Mark Latham being a seemingly inevitable exception). Even so, Baird leaves office with a patchy electoral record, and with recent polls suggesting the public was growing increasingly disenchanted with his leadership.

And yesterday, an analysis of the electorates where the Coalition is most likely to be punished for the Centrelink debacle:

Reports this week suggest the next targets will be disability support and, particularly dangerously, the aged pension … The highest concentrations of those on unemployment benefits tend to be in low-income areas of the big cities and remote regions with high indigenous populations. The former account for the most reliable Labor territory in the country, while electorates encompassing the latter usually bring together white conservative and indigenous Labor voters, with the former being decisively greater in number. But when pensioners come in to view, real problems start to emerge — especially for the Nationals, whose rural and regional heartland is distinctive for being whiter, poorer and older than the big cities.

And on Monday, a look at the Queensland seats most likely to fall to One Nation, based on analysis of the 2016 Senate vote:

Clear at the top of the list for the LNP is Lockyer, which covers the rural areas between Ipswich and Toowoomba … Labor’s danger areas include the two seats that cover Hanson’s old stamping ground of Ipswich, where the threat is intensified by the weakness of the LNP, since the One Nation candidates will have a low bar to clear in overtaking the LNP and scooping up their preferences.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,696 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor”

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  1. simon katich @ #49 Saturday, January 21, 2017 at 10:10 am

    BiS
    “One of my favourites was Greenwich, with the Royal Observatory”
    Dont start me. On a short stopover, I walked there from the city (I was on a 3rd World travel budget). I wanted, needed, to see the meridian. You can imagine my temper when confronted with an entry fee that equalled one week of travelling costs in, say, Romania.
    I had to make do with looking at it through the fence.
    I hate London.

    Yep, the UK’s bloody expensive until you start earning pounds then it’s just expensive.
    Greenwich was normally my crash point when I returned from travelling. A more relaxed and laid part of London.

    p.s. I have several photos of my feet astride the Prime Meridian, also some at the Equator.
    😛

  2. In particular, if you want some notion of what Trump governance is likely to look like, consider the botched occupation of Iraq. People who knew anything about nation-building weren’t wanted; party loyalists — and corporate profiteers — took their place. There’s even a little-known connection: Betsy DeVos’s brother, Erik Prince, founded Blackwater, the mercenary outfit that, among other things, helped destabilize Iraq by firing into a crowd of civilians.

    Now the conditions that prevailed in Iraq — blind ideology, contempt for expertise, effective absence of any enforcement of ethics rules — have come to America, but in a far more acute form.

    And what will happen when we face a crisis? Remember, Katrina was the event that finally revealed the costs of Bush-era cronyism to all.

    Crises of some kind are bound to occur on any president’s watch. They appear especially likely given the crew that’s coming in and their allies in Congress: Given the stated priorities of the people about to take charge, we could very well see collapsing health care, a trade war and a military standoff with China just in the next year.

    Yep, the Bush-Cheney era on steroids.

  3. Was in London a month ago and the highlight was the trip down to Portsmouth to visit the HMS Victory (still the flagship of the Royal Navy). Fascinating and surprisingly uncrowded considering it is the world’s most famous warship. Only about a dozen on-board when I visited. Also worth looking at the HMS Warrior in the dockyard which was the last Victory-type ship made (in 1860) with sales and steam power. Could have destroyed the French fleet on its own but already a dinosaur when made because of the US ironclads. Anyway, a great trip.

  4. The real fear should be that Trump is Captain Chaos, the ignorant dauphin of disorder. All the standard practices, norms, ways of speaking and interacting will be degraded and shredded. The political system and the economy will grind to a battered crawl.

    That’s ultimately why this could be a pivotal day. For the past few decades our leadership class has been polarized. We’ve wondered if there is some opponent out there that could force us to unite and work together. Well, that opponent is being inaugurated, not in the form of Trump the man, but in the form of the chaos and incompetence that will likely radiate from him, month after month. For America to thrive, people across government will have to cooperate and build arrangements to quarantine and work around the president.

    People in the defense, diplomatic and intelligence communities will have to build systems to prevent him from intentionally or unintentionally bumbling into a global crisis. People in his administration and in Congress will have to create systems so his ill-informed verbal spasms don’t derail coherent legislation.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/20/opinion/the-internal-invasion.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=span-abc-region&region=span-abc-region&WT.nav=span-abc-region

    The problem however, is that he has surrounded himself with incompetent cronies, equally as unprepared for government as he is! At least we could easily get rid of our Captain Chaos, not so America.

  5. One of my favourites was Greenwich, with the Royal Observatory and Maritime Museum among others. It has a different feel to London and is easy to get to on the Tube or the light rail from the Tower of London.

    Definitely Greenwich is the go, but get a sightseeing cruise from Westminster. Great way to see the city from the Thames. Drops you off right next to Cutty Sark. Bit of a hike up the hill to the Observatory, but worth it.

  6. BiS “p.s. I have several photos of my feet astride the Prime Meridian, also some at the Equator”
    I fart in your general direction.

  8. Our politicians were ‘out there’ yesterday –

    * Poorleen was in Bunbury. She was asked about ON’s state candidate for Kalgoorlie. She insisted he was standing for that electorate even after being told he had said he wasn’t and then threatened to walk off. Then she was asked about the events in Melbourne and she said it was ‘terrorism’. After being told that the Victoria Police had said it was not ‘terrorism’ related she said she had ‘intelligence’ that it was and then left.

    * Our PM lived up to being ‘Tantrum Turnbull’ while being at Portland. He was asked about appointing Arfur to a senior ministership while he was still to get a mention in an ICAC report. He launched into a rant about Shorten and Kitchen.

    Edifying stuff!

  10. Tricot

    My hope is that some of those who voted for Trump are finally waking up to what he is all about, and the interests isn’t one of them

  11. My hope is that some of those who voted for Trump are finally waking up to what he is all about, and the interests isn’t one of them

    Checked a couple of the RWNJobbie sites Vic. Comments there very much divorced from any kind of objective reality. Its going to take a while for these people to realize just how full of crap Trump is and even then there are many of them who wont EVER change their minds. They see him as the horror of the “leftists” they despise everything about, and are very much wrapped in their own gloating bubbles at the moment.

  12. Forget London. There are return flights to Shanghai/Beijing for $300.

    Apparently the PJ Harvey concert last night was a ripper. Booooo.

    Whoever mentioned Greenwich has put me in a mood.

  13. Imacca

    Yes there is a cohort of delusional Trump supporters that will stick by him no matter what. I am still going to hold onto my belief that Trump and hisscronies are going to be found out for illegal behaviour including espionage, and that he will be dumped on his ear.

  14. Or you could get your picture taken with your feet astride the 151st Meridian at Pirtek Stadium, Parramatta (although I don’t imagine anyone’s bothered to mark it).

    Unfortunately, it’s very difficult to get to 0 0′ 0.00″, 0 0′ 0.00″ and you couldn’t stand there for a picture.

  15. “They see him as the horror of the “leftists””
    These people define themselves by who they are not. Devoid of independent thought and ideas they see themselves only as the opposite of lefty greenies. I have my ideas as to how that came about.

    During the twitter spat with Leyonhjelm yesterday there were a few tweets congratulating him for putting it up the lefties. I mean, hello, it was Howard to brought in the gun laws.

  17. steve777 @ #64 Saturday, January 21, 2017 at 11:20 am

    Or you could get your picture taken with your feet astride the 151st Meridian at Pirtek Stadium, Parramatta (although I don’t imagine anyone’s bothered to mark it).
    Unfortunately, it’s very difficult to get to 0 0′ 0.00″, 0 0′ 0.00″ and you couldn’t stand there for a picture.

    Actually the original Prime Meridian isn’t the actual Prime Meridian now.
    They moved it and it’s now a few hundred metres away. I think it was some political compromise when they came to an international agreement on one Prime Meridian as most major countries had their own Prime Meridian. 🙂

  18. My hope is that some of those who voted for Trump are finally waking up to what he is all about, and the interests isn’t one of them

    Some, but not a lot, will. But it doesn’t need many, just a few percent at the margins changes administrations. Trump will lose lots of support when he and his cronies start implementing the hard right economic agenda, like Abbott and his lot in 2014. The punters wanted to stop the boats / Mexicans / terrorists / politicaly correct chardonay-drinking elites, not their own or their family’s pensions or health benefits.

  20. victoria @ #63 Saturday, January 21, 2017 at 11:17 am

    Yes there is a cohort of delusional Trump supporters that will stick by him no matter what. I am still going to hold onto my belief that Trump and hisscronies are going to be found out for illegal behaviour including espionage, and that he will be dumped on his ear.

    I think it will more likely be tax evasion. That’s how they eventually got Al Capone.

  21. Victoria:

    20 Jan 2017 will go down as a total shocker. From the tragedy in Melbourne to the farce unfolding in Washington. On the plus side Real Time resumes today (Fri nite US time) – something to look forward to.

  22. The difference in longitude 0° is due to one being astronomical and the newer one being geodetic.

    Hard to get to 0° 0°? try getting to UTM Grid 0.000mE 0.000mN.

  23. I feel kinda numb at the moment.
    What occurred yesterday in Melbourne was terrible, but am I surprised? No. Sad to say but it was only a matter of time something like this was going to occur. There have been many near misses in the recent past that the public don’t often hear about. I have a connection in law enforcement, and the near misses are sobering to say the least. The drug Ice is particularly insidious and I have personally been impacted by it in a few ways. Friends and familiy who are very good people who love and care for Their offspring, have had to deal with the nightmare that this drug brings to their lives. Also as mentioned previously my own cousin was brutally murdered at his work place by an Ice addict, who said that my cousin needed to be killed cos he was the devil.
    This together with the spectre of terrorism in our midst, is quite deflating. Not hard to feel defeated at times……….
    Not that I am particularly concerned about my own skin. We all gotta go one way or another. But I was exactly in that location one week ago. The place was packed to the rafters. Imagine having to witness the carnage.

  26. “We preyed on people’s fears. And all of that caught up with us. And we have no one to blame but ourselves”

    Conservatives worldwide better get used to saying this phrase over and over.

  27. The most logical place for the Prime Meridian would be that through Berring Strait (about 169 deg West in the system we have, about 1100km further East at the Equator). It could also serve as the International Date line, no reason for it to be at or near 180 degrees. Number merians from 0 to 359 59′ 59.999…”.

  29. Reagan’s speechwriter Peggy Noonan on Trump’s inaugural speech:

    The speech will electrify President Trump’s followers. They will feel satisfaction that they understood him and knew what they were backing. And it will deepen the Washington establishment’s unease. Republican leaders had been hoping the address would ameliorate their anxieties about the continued primacy of their traditional policy preferences. Forget that. This was a declaration that the president is going his own way and they’d best follow.

    Throughout the speech, and much of the day, Mr. Trump looked stern. At first I thought it was the face he puts on when he’s nervous. I don’t think so now.

    Anyway, it was a remarkable speech, like none before it, and it marked, I think, yet another break point in the two-party reality that has dominated our politics for many decades.

    And so, now, it begins. And it simply has to be repeated: We have never had a political moment like this in our lives. We have never had a president like this, such a norm-breaker, in all the ways we know. We are in uncharted seas.

    http://www.wsj.com/articles/president-trump-declares-independence-1484956174

  30. fess

    I remember Noonan years ago saying that her first glimpse of Ronald Reagan was of his foot and that all she wanted to do was go in and cuddle it.

    Just sayin’.

  33. Victoria
    Ice addiction has killed and harmed many more people in Australian than terrorism ever has. The resources used to create the “are you scared yet” dept. would be better spent on dealing with ice. A good place to start would legalizing drugs that cause people to sit around singing Kumbaya and really going after those that cause aggression. Charging the dealer with the crime committed as well as the taker with the addled brain would in my view be a good second step.

  34. zoomster @ #80 Saturday, January 21, 2017 at 11:59 am

    fess
    I remember Noonan years ago saying that her first glimpse of Ronald Reagan was of his foot and that all she wanted to do was go in and cuddle it.
    Just sayin’.

    Goodness gracious me! Who TF is this Noonan of whom you speak in such glowing (in the dark) terms.
    I recall, from the not distant enough past one whom I referred to as “Coonass”. Pray tell, would this possible be the same mistress of misfortune?
    The name has not the same lustre as Cherry Kickerasrseky, a close second perhaps?
    Peace. ♡♡

  35. Here we go:

    ‘I first saw President Reagan as a foot, highly polished brown cordovan wagging merrily on a hassock. I spied it through the door. It was a beautiful foot, sleek. Such casual elegance and clean lines! But not a big foot, not formidable, maybe a little …frail. I imagined cradling it in my arms, protecting it from unsmooth roads.’

    http://www.quotationspage.com/quote/23049.html

  40. sohar @ #82 Saturday, January 21, 2017 at 12:15 pm

    Oakes calling for another Turnbull reset. Have they tried turning him off and on?

    Yes . Despite this it just flicks to the ‘blue screen of death’

  45. Confessions,

    Is this the same type of people who thought that voting LNP would also ‘Get things done’, Unity, smaller Goverment and other nonsense??

  46. Peggy Noonan wasn’t Reagan’s Peta Credlin. She was in no way the power behind the throne. but there are similarities, for example both are big fans, even groupies, of the Great Man, both are conservative Catholics. As speech writer, Noonan helped set the tone of the Reagan presidency.

  47. BK
    #94 Saturday, January 21, 2017 at 12:52 pm
    I do not wish to annoy you. BUT
    I think I have a rousing really good sing-a-long tune for you.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wRQo-MKBYFk
    Relates to, in particular, Centrelink policy makers.

    ♪Dickheads by the number,
    Troubles by the score,♫
    ♪Everyday I love you less,
    Each day I love me more.♪

  48. I don’t want to see the ‘Real Trump’, although I suspect there’s only one and we’ve all had a good look.

    P.S. Someone has gone to the trouble and expense of sky-writing “Trump” over Sydney. Nothing else. It looks a bit windblown so I assume it’s complete. Great way to ruin a clear blue sky.

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