BludgerTrack state breakdowns: December 2016

A detailed view of the federal polling picture at state level, as the Coalition sags and One Nation soars in three states.

No sign of those Newspoll state polls that I hoped might enliven the silly season, and it’s still another week until Essential Research returns. So for your edification, I offer the following state-by-state accounting of where the federal polling picture stands at state level (except Tasmania, for which there has been literally no data at all since the election). This is based on 35 polls in all: 25 from Essential, with unpublished state breakdowns; eight from Newspoll, including the quarterly breakdowns); one from Ipsos; and a Queensland-only result from Galaxy. Note that “Q3” below refers to the third quarter result for 2016, i.e. three months ago.

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Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,569 comments on “BludgerTrack state breakdowns: December 2016”

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  1. Lizzie,

    You’re caught in the middle of a “pissing” contest.
    Make sure you wear your raincoat if you want to play.

  2. KayJay

    Are you of an age when we obsequious antipodeans sent “Food for Britain” parcels. </blockquote.
    No but my parents and primary school teachers filled me with tales of how we colonials would light up the hearts of British children by send in things like oranges that were destined for their xmas stockings in dear old England. An excellent way to teach we wee Antipodeans that the 'Great' in Great Britain' should not be taken seriously.

    Those teachers also told us how in the then not too distant past Pomgolia was referred to as the "Mother Country" . At which point we all decided our elders must have been a bit doolally back then.

  4. P1

    Since the dawn of time, when man first crawled out of the primordial slime to fill in the fist census form, human beings have entertained themselves by giving false information on census forms.

    It’s a bit of harmless fun, which, in the overall scale of the exercise, does little harm.

    The ABS does not expect census data to 100% accurate, and it does not need to be for the purposes it is used.

    You can’t quite do the same with data supplied to Medicare, the ATO or Centrelink, however.

    Thus the data provided to these agencies is likely to be more accurate (and far more personal) but it doesn’t provide the same ‘picture’ as the census does.

  5. GG

    😉

    Here is another candidate for the Obeid style of politician. Unfortunately, he purports to be a Labor candidate.

    In an interview on Friday Cr Khan denied bankrolling dummy candidates, insisting his team was made up of genuine hopefuls running a clean and honest campaign.”

    He said that the high number of candidates contesting the election was not due to the field being flooded with dummies, but instead “a true reflection of democracy”. “My campaign was a true campaign. It cost me time, money and effort.”

    “I worked really hard. I faced the toughest competition, with people encouraging people to not vote for me … simply because I am high profile,” he said.

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/bogus-enrolments-and-charity-help-deliver-poll-win-for-intaj-khan-20170114-gtrgai.html

  6. dtt

    Firstly, I usually preface anecdotes with statements saying just that (unless it isn’t necessary; sometimes a story is just a story).

    Secondly, why the obsession with me? I note, for example, that bemused had much the same reaction to your use of numerical data, and asked you a follow up question as well. Why aren’t you having a go at him?

  7. lizzie @ #3298 Sunday, January 15, 2017 at 2:36 pm

    As I am a bear of very little brain, I cannot follow these arguments at all.

    Bear with me. Try to remain calm. Interference can be calamitous. I am about to perform for the benefit of the hound dog “The Old Rugged Cross”. The relationship between arguments and song escapes me as well.
    The benefit of this action will be that I can then watch the cricket on TV which may put me to sleep.
    ♫♪If you go down in the woods today, ♪♫

  8. kayjay @ #3242 Sunday, January 15, 2017 at 12:47 pm

    Should I be fearful?

    Only if you have ever falsely claimed a welfare benefit, fiddled your expenses, overstated your tax deductions, taken more than 3 days sick leave without a medical certificate, or picked up a coin off the pavement without declaring it in your tax return : )

  9. Player dear

    Justification please. Do you even understand what the concept of relative risk, probability IS? I rather doubt it.

    Being stupid just to be nasty only makes you look weak and silly.

  11. http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/daniel-andrews-and-matthew-guy-at-odds-over-mp-entitlements-shakeup-20170114-gtri5e.html

    Victoria’s parliamentary entitlements system faces a shake-up, including the prospect of an independent watchdog similar to the agency announced by Malcolm Turnbull to oversee federal MPs’ perks.

    But the reforms may depend on who wins the next state election, with the Coalition and the Greens both pushing for improvements, and the Andrews government saying it has no plans to change the system.
    :::::

    But the Andrews government took a different view, with a spokeswoman saying on Saturday that “the government has no plans to change the current reporting of entitlements”, and instead pointed to the recommendations that were adopted following a 2013 review of the system.

    However, that review, as previously reported by The Sunday Age, found that Victoria’s entitlements regime was complex, confusing, and opaque, and the Napthine government, which commissioned it, adopted only half of its 16 recommendations.

    Those recommendations included a wage rise for MPs, increases to superannuation, and a “resettlement allowance” for politicians who lost their seats. The proposals that were not adopted at the time included a tougher review of expenses, a new handbook spelling out the rules more clearly, and tighter regulations for electorate office and communications budgets.

    Greens leader Greg Barber said it was clear the state system needed to be improved, and backed the idea of an independent officer to oversee all aspects of entitlements and privileges (the Greens have advocated for such an authority for 10 years).

  12. P1

    Apart from that pesky Privacy Act, no nothing at all : )

    Well that’s exactly what they’re doing now. Is there a legal challenge against this?

    The ATO, HIC and Social Security data have been mixed and matched for many years.

  13. zoomster @ #3304 Sunday, January 15, 2017 at 2:43 pm

    Since the dawn of time, when man first crawled out of the primordial slime to fill in the fist census form, human beings have entertained themselves by giving false information on census forms.

    Don’t tell me Mary, Joseph and Jesus may have lied on Census of Quirinius form? How will be ever break the news to Pope Pell that his entire 2000 year old religion is based on a bit of a lark on a slow night in Bethlehem?

  14. Zoomster

    Probably because while I do click on Bemused from time to time I mostly have him on stfu, because he was usually so nasty. I have not done that to you, because although we argue and you are often unfair, you do make the attempt to understand and contribute positively to the blog. You are not nasty just for the sake of it.

    Bemused is a mixed bag. I am considering rehabilitating him.

    Yes it is a bit unfair that you cop more of my replies – more bad luck than anything else you are here more often and may be the most recent post. I seriously do not have a particular quarrel with you and if you tried not to react quite so negatively it would be OK – also not to join the pack of idiots whom I have placed on STFU.

    Mind you I will admit that when I am in a bad mood and have copped a beating from the rat pack, I am harsher on you than deserved. In some cases I regard the otherposters so poorly that I no longer bother to respond. Take it as a back handed compliment if you will.

  17. player one @ #3308 Sunday, January 15, 2017 at 2:48 pm

    kayjay @ #3242 Sunday, January 15, 2017 at 12:47 pm

    Should I be fearful?

    Only if you have ever falsely claimed a welfare benefit, fiddled your expenses, overstated your tax deductions, taken more than 3 days sick leave without a medical certificate, or picked up a coin off the pavement without declaring it in your tax return : )

    Oh! God in heaven. While walking with my wife in 1970 I found a $10 note. Fuggit. I have spent a few nights in police lockups and now facing incarceration for crimes against the Gummint of the Peoples Antirepublic of Australia may have me ending my days in Long Bay peoples holiday resort. I may get to meet Roger and Neddy. Oh! Goody.
    Do you happen, in your wide experience, to have obtained information about the tucker in NSW jails? I would like to get used to the finer benefits of remedial penology.
    Thank you for your information. ☀ ☀

  19. zoomster @ #3306 Sunday, January 15, 2017 at 2:45 pm

    dtt
    Firstly, I usually preface anecdotes with statements saying just that (unless it isn’t necessary; sometimes a story is just a story).
    Secondly, why the obsession with me? I note, for example, that bemused had much the same reaction to your use of numerical data, and asked you a follow up question as well. Why aren’t you having a go at him?

    I know where the technique comes from and I know DTT is abusing it.
    I am happy for anyone to challenge me on my knowledge of that issue.

  21. ctar1 @ #3312 Sunday, January 15, 2017 at 2:52 pm

    Apart from that pesky Privacy Act, no nothing at all : )

    Well that’s exactly what they’re doing now. Is there a legal challenge against this?
    The ATO, HIC and Social Security data have been mixed and matched for many years.

    Probably can’t be challenged legally, because you gave explicit permission for them to share your data. You did read the fine print on your application, didn’t you???

    Actually though, you don’t need to have a TFN if you don’t need to lodge a tax return (e.g. because you earned no income). Therefore you don’t need to provide your TFN to Centrelink, although I see that they appear to imply that you do.

    It reminds me of applying recently for a service with a well-known internet company – if you don’t explicitly agree that said company does not need to comply with all the relevant government regulations governing said service, they sadly conclude that they cannot supply you with said service.

    In other words, it’s a rort.

  22. https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2016/07/02/hope-federal-icac/14673816003443

    The Greens have been calling for a federal anti-corruption commission for years, meeting fierce resistance from the major parties. Now, finally, a refreshed crossbench may breathe new hope into the endeavour.

    At last, some good emerges from the debauched raids on the taxpayers of New South Wales by notorious former Labor powerbroker Eddie Obeid.

    In the wake of Obeid’s conviction for misconduct in public office, Bill Shorten finally plucked up the courage to ignore internal ALP opposition and open the door to the missing link in Australia’s mosaic of anti-corruption enforcers, a federal anti-corruption commission.

  25. P1

    ‘You did read the fine print on your application, didn’t you???’

    To be fair, it isn’t fine print. It’s quite explicit, and they follow up consent given with a letter to make sure that you know you gave it.

  27. Trump has again used twitter to unleash his bile, and show his hatreds. This time the target was civil rights icon John Lewis, who has been assaulted, deprived and hounded by ignorant Americans for four decades. Trump has set the tone and tactic of the new world order. It will be Government of the tweet, by the tweet and for the tweet.
    It won’t end well and I’m glad I’m old.

  29. Bemused

    I am thinking of giving you a score card- I love numbers. 1 weeks stfu for every nasty comment, 2 days if it is ambiguous but only 1 day if obviously provoked. Sound fair?

    Ypou last post was ambiguous so delay rehab bu 2 days.

  31. player one @ #3328 Sunday, January 15, 2017 at 3:13 pm

    kayjay @ #3317 Sunday, January 15, 2017 at 3:01 pm

    Do you happen, in your wide experience, to have obtained information about the tucker in NSW jails? I would like to get used to the finer benefits of remedial penology.

    Don’t eat the pork cutlets if there are prisoners missing after roll call.

    Ah! Thank you. I know that our gourmet master BK will be interested in this information although specialty sauces would be required with the mentioned item. ✳ ✳

  32. daretotread @ #3329 Sunday, January 15, 2017 at 3:18 pm

    Bemused
    I am thinking of giving you a score card- I love numbers. 1 weeks stfu for every nasty comment, 2 days if it is ambiguous but only 1 day if obviously provoked. Sound fair?
    Ypou last post was ambiguous so delay rehab bu 2 days.

    Nothing ambiguous about it and I don’t give a damn.

  33. MTBW

    My SMH limit is used up so I could not read the article.

    Who is Jai Rowell. With whome is he aligned – monkey pod, Alex hawke? Does anyone know?

  35. ‘Fess,
    He has certainly taken unstatesmanlike to whole new levels! He is so thin-skinned it isn’t funny.

    Trump is just plain vindictive. Now that he is about to gain enormous power which he doesn’t deserve and will likely misuse, in the land of the Salem Witch Trials, I am afraid for the people who will suffer at the hands of what this character will unleash.

  37. confessions Sunday, January 15, 2017 at 3:19 pm
    Al Pal:

    He has certainly taken unstatesmanlike to whole new levels! He is so thin-skinned it isn’t funny.

    ******************************************************

    ‘God, you’re an a**hole!’ Internet erupts after ‘douchebag’ Trump attacks John Lewis yet again

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/01/god-youre-an-ahole-internet-erupts-after-douchebag-trump-attacks-john-lewis-yet-again/

    ‘Dude, just stop’: Even GOP lawmakers are taking shots at Trump’s tweets now

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/01/dude-just-stop-even-gop-lawmakers-are-taking-shots-at-trumps-tweets-now/

    Michael Moore backs up John Lewis with 6 reasons Trump is an ‘illegitimate president’

    Moore then questioned Trump’s mental stability, pointing out his behavior on the social media site Twitter.

    “He is not well and needs help. He has a number of serious mental disorders that make him unfit to hold office — and they are on display every day in one cringe-worthy tweet after another. He is a full-blown malignant narcissist. He displays sociopathic tendencies. He will say one thing and 30 seconds later say the opposite. He is disconnected from the truth. And he has a stunning lack of human empathy. These behaviors make him a truly dangerous occupant of the Oval Office.”

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/01/michael-moore-backs-up-john-lewis-with-6-reasons-trump-is-an-illegitimate-president/

  38. DTT,

    If your SMH limit is up, simply switch to one of the other Fairfax publications. Unless it is local local, most of the articles are shared across the various newspaper headings. means you get a whole cache of new access.

  39. I am afraid for the people who will suffer at the hands of what this character will unleash.

    Yep and it would certainly help if the media toughened up as it looks as though he’s going to go to war on them with exceptions of Fox News and similar of course.

  40. Completely overlooking the subjectivity in assigning the numbers in the first place.

    Yes. There’s nothing wrong with a numerical ranking system, so long as the process used for computing the numbers is clear, well-documented, and repeatable.

    However assigning numbers based largely (if not entirely) upon personal opinion is completely arbitrary. It’s not at all reasonable to try to pass that off as a legitimate “tool” for comparing anything.

  41. PhoenixRed:

    Compare and contrast with how Obama used the President’s social media account. So dignified, intelligent and graceful. Unlike Trump who actually tweets entirely in capitals sometimes, signifying shouting. So bellicose and undignified.

  45. poroti,

    He’ll now give us a series of posts proving how much he doesn’t care about anything any one else says.

  46. STFU is now programmable. See posts re 1 weed – 2 days STFU etc.
    Not yet available from “Greasyfork”.
    Possibly only for master graduates from STFU schools.

  47. GG
    Couldn’t stand the man. I ran against him on the floor of the NSW State Conference in 1988 for State Secretary and the Right brought him home by a small margin.

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