BludgerTrack: 53.0-47.0 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continues to drift minimally in Labor’s favour.

Two new polls this week, from Newspoll and Essential Research (expect the post-election pollster duopoly to be broken over the next few days), produce an incremental move to Labor on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, sufficient to gain them a seat in Western Australia on the seat projection. Newspoll as always provided a new set of leadership ratings, which likewise failed to make much difference.

bt2019-2016-11-23

• A production error resulted in me neglecting to mention the Essential Research numbers earlier this week. There was a move back to the Coalition on two-party preferred, putting Labor’s two party lead at 52-48, with primary votes at Coalition 38% (up one), Labor 37% (steady), Greens 10% (down one), One Nation 6% (steady) and Nick Xenophon Team 3% (steady). Essential have surpassed themselves with their supplementary questions this week, by recording strikingly high levels of agreement with a series of pointedly Trumpian statements about the present state of our own nation. This included an 83-9 split in favour of “the government should bring manufacturing jobs to Australia”, 75-14 for “if people who are not Australian citizens commit a crime they should be deported”, 77-13 for “we should do more to stop people entering our country illegally”, 52-32 for “I would like to see Australia more like it was in the past” and 60-26 for “no matter who is in power the system is rigged against ordinary people”. There was a 46-40 split in favour of “racial equality has gone too far”, and 40-48 against “gender equality has gone too far” (no gender breakdown on the latter unfortunately). Other findings: 64-17 in favour of cutting back on 457 visas, 45-44 in favour of taxes to make junk food more expensive, 51-39 for a 20% levy on soft drinks, and 56-16 for resettling refugees on Nauru and Manus Island to the US.

• Possum Comitatus relates that union-commissioned polling in Queensland finds One Nation support “in the teens”, and that the support is driven not by “the things One Nation gets headlines and TV grabs for”, but rather by those who “think, in the general case, that the world is fucked and not operating as it was promised”. For what it’s worth, Campbell Newman rates that a shy Hansonite effect is causing polls to rate One Nation several points too low; that the party will win a bag of seats at the next state election; and that the Liberal National Party should be laying the groundwork to enter into a coalition with them. I had a fair to say on such matters in a paywalled article for Crikey yesterday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

467 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.0-47.0 to Labor”

Comments Page 7 of 10
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  1. I left the tv on ABC and Songs of Praise came on. It is very worth watching with a good history of Stoke on Trent pottery industry, including Isiah Wedgewood who was an active member of the Anti Slavery movement. The average age of pottery employees was 34 due to lead poisoning. Wedgewood built houses for workers at his new pottery factory, and provided healthcare, as well as enforcing hand/face washing by his workers. There are some interesting programs on SOP, I find. It is also socially interesting. This program also looked at Sir Stanley Matthews, the footballer, who travelled to Soweto in South Africa during Apartheid to teach black youth football skills.
    It is an interesting program, often overlooked because it is religious. Is netter, more interesting than Insiders, the local singers and musicians are not half bad, and does not pretend to something else, unlike Insiders.
    How a Christian religious show gets a billing on the national broadcaster is the political side of the argument, but as is is as is, I will watch it now and again, and be surprised at how good they do it.

  7. Watched insiders,

    Unless I missed something Cassidy missed a blatant lie by Cormann, who said Swan introduced foreign income tax of 32.5% and the L-NP were working to reduce it to 19%.

    The 32.5% was introduced by CORMANN in 2015 and was due to come into force this year in July. Before that the foreign workers here for more than 6 months (which you probably would be if you worked on farms) paid the same tax as locals.

    If the interviewers aren’t on top of issues enough to stop lying (and Cormann helps with the budget so he knew he was lying) they should have an MP from each side debate instead.

  8. Malcolm Roberts thinks that climate change is caused by greenie propaganda. If we all stopped believing in it, it wouldn’t happen.

  9. kayjay @ #281 Sunday, November 27, 2016 at 11:35 am

    Bemused
    I think your procedure is tomorrow.
    My only advise now is just put up with the requirement of preparation.
    If you are having the liquid prep make it with chilled water. Don’t sip it – take as many swallows at a time as you can manage and follow with your cold water.
    Apart from that, I’m sure that you will manage just fine. Even RW ratbags apparently can manage this process.
    The procedure, as you know will be just fine just as long as you don’t fall in love with the happy medicine. That a little joke – very little. 🙂

    Thanks for your kind thoughts KayJay.
    Been through the procedure once before so I have some idea.
    With all the fluid I drank yesterday I was up several times last night so just had a bit of a nap to make up for lost sleep. Expecting to lose more tonight.
    Cool day in Melbourne and drinking lots of cold fluid doesn’t help so just made a cup of tea – no milk!
    The excitement really starts at 3:00pm with the first Picoprep!

  10. peter piper @ #285 Sunday, November 27, 2016 at 11:45 am

    I wonder what some people expect the ABC to be when they continually harp on about how they are pushing a “right-wing agenda”. Did you expect Barrie to come on wearing a Che t-shirt and dedicate the whole show to the memory of Fidel?
    The only panellists they have on regularly who are obviously right-wing are Gerard and Michael Stutchbury. Laura Tingle has been a constant critic of the government. She comes across to me as someone who is socially ‘left’ and economically pragmatic.

    Careful, you will upset Adrian.
    But you are quite right. Journalists are not there to represent any particular position but they should ask probing questions to draw out their interviewees without fear or favour.
    If discussing with other journalists, I expect them to keep their own opinions to themselves and explore all aspects of the topic.

  11. Rowan ‏@FightingTories · 2h2 hours ago

    Turnbull leaks ‘ reshuffle ‘ details to Massola
    Abbott sends a message of ‘ include me or else ‘

    We might get a Christmas spill

  12. c@tmomma @ #212 Sunday, November 27, 2016 at 12:03 am

    Well I discovered that ABC2 are playing the 2013 series of ‘The IT Crowd’ on Saturday nights and I’m overjoyed! : )

    c@t

    Still catching up with all the posts, so please accept my apologies if someone e;lse has already replied.

    There was no 2013 season of The IT Crowd, just a one off special called The Internet Is Coming. After that, nothing. That special though is very funny, although not as funny as The Work Outing episode (the one where they go to the theatre).

  13. Further on the backpacker tax on insiders. Shane Wright corrected Cormann later in the show by saying the L-NP introduced the tax changes for foreign workers last year promising it would raise $500 million (adding that he thought they never would).

    Haven’t seen much of Shane Wright, hope they have more of him.

  14. I lasted to the end of Peatling’s SMH report of Abbott’s advice to Turnbull, and was rewarded with this gem:
    ‘”If you make a solemn pledge to the people you can’t break it,” Mr Abbott said.’
    Was he talking about health, or education or pensions, things that affect many people directly? Nope , same sex marriage.
    Also on a point of nit picking, as Abbott claimed people misread his promises in 2013, I also do not recall Turnbull being particularly ‘solemn’ in the election campaign when a promising a plebiscite.

  16. The Tones Article is hysterical. If he wasn’t a politician he would be charged with demanding an advantage with menaces. Stop pussy-footing around Tones. Tell Malcolm that if you’re not in cabinet by Christmas, you’ll job him.

  17. Thanks for that Lizzie, re a reshuffle, I thought Massola had been tipped off.
    I still don’t see how they can call a reshuffle at this stage in the life of the parliament a sign of ‘good, stable government’ intent on ‘delivering’.

  18. DanG,
    There was no 2013 season of The IT Crowd, just a one off special called The Internet Is Coming.

    Lucky I caught it then! But ‘sad face’ that there will be no more. (I think I’ve seen the The Work Outing).

    What those guys could do with the Social Mediacrity of our times!

  19. AB11,
    Tell Malcolm that if you’re not in cabinet by Christmas, you’ll job him.

    ‘Shirtfront’ is the epithet du jour du Toned Abs! ; )

  20. I heard on Sky News this morning that the US Security Service is considering renting a floor of Sky Tower in NY so they can cover Trump while he is living there. Who is the landlord that would be collecting the rent? Trump himself, if you can believe that he actually owns the building. I am sure Trump would see nothing wrong with that, after all its just business!

  21. I Usually like Tingle, but she was hopeless on Insiders today. Even Fran was better!

    It was very amusing to see her running with the meme that seems to have gripped the CPG that the L-NP has the Senate working smoothly, therefore the DD wasn’t so bad, and perhaps Turnbull isn’t a fizza (The perennial problem of being unable to judge Turnbull).

    Within a few minutes of polishing that turd she then started going on about a “degree of difficulty” in the senate and listed problems with the Nats and a range of others that made everything so bloody hard.

    I gave Tingle and Lenore Taylor a lot of credit for being very quick to see how hopeless Abbott was compared to the rest of the CPG, but they have both been very dull and slow witted when it comes to Turnbull.

  22. Tones thinks he’s the gunnery sergeant at a political boot-camp and it’s his job to toughen up lazy, self-centred, cowardly Private Turnbull and turn him a real marine, and the only way to do that is keep kicking him in the arse.

  24. QUESTION – Like I said, they thought Abbott was the problem and Turnbull the solution for THEIR team. Now they don’t want to face the fact that the team is the problem.

  25. c@tmomma @ #318 Sunday, November 27, 2016 at 1:46 pm

    DanG,
    There was no 2013 season of The IT Crowd, just a one off special called The Internet Is Coming.
    Lucky I caught it then! But ‘sad face’ that there will be no more. (I think I’ve seen the The Work Outing).
    What those guys could do with the Social Mediacrity of our times!

    The whole lot (including The Internet Is Coming) is available on the Stan streaming service. I’ve binge watched the whole lot a couple of times since joining them last year.

    The Work Outing episode is the one where Jen has the hots for a guy who takes her to see a musical called “Gay”. Roy is caught short, so decides to use the disabled toilet and gets busted, so he pretends to be disabled. He ends up getting put on a bus with other disabled people bound for Manchester.

    It’s one of those episodes that no matter how many times you see it, it still makes you laugh.

  26. Stuck at home all alone, not much to do so watching 633 Squadron on TV yet again.

    Seems it was made at a time (1964) when there were still quite a few operational WWII aircraft still around, particularly the amazing ‘wooden wonder’ Mosquito.

  28. I am surprised at the absence of defenders of either him or Turnbull.

    It’s the weekend. The people who get paid to astroturf for far-right interests don’t work on the weekend. Wait until normal business hours on Monday, then check again.

  33. bemused Sunday, November 27, 2016 at 2:00 pm
    Stuck at home all alone, not much to do so watching 633 Squadron on TV yet again.
    Seems it was made at a time (1964) when there were still quite a few operational WWII aircraft still around, particularly the amazing ‘wooden wonder’ Mosquito.

    *****************************************

    Bemused – I don’t know a lot about Australia and the Mosquito – but something like 200+ were ‘manufactured’ in Australia

    The de Havilland DH 98 Mosquito was perhaps the greatest all-round combat aircraft of World War II. The “Mossie” was originally designed as a fast, unarmed, light bomber. However, when flying tests commenced on 25 November 1940, this “wooden wonder” became the world’s fastest operational aircraft, with a top speed of almost 400 mph. It also out-manoeuvred most fighters, and could carry out upward rolls from ground level with one engine feathered. With such an outstanding potential, the Mosquito was developed to carry out practically every offensive task.

    In 1942, the Australian de Havilland factory at Bankstown commenced production of a fighter-bomber Mosquito, the DHA 98 FB Mk 40. Initial delays were caused by the unavailability of Canadian birchwood, and Australian coachwood had to be substituted. The first Australian Mosquito was delivered on 23 July 1943, and accepted by the RAAF on 5 March 1944.

    Short youtube video :

    Wooden Mosquito Airplane Manufacturing in Australia -1944 de Havilland DH98

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c7cVvYdLeek

  34. Theres no doubt Tony Rudd is angling to challenge Turnbull if he doesnt get his own way.

    There’ll be a nice little acronym out of it if he does succeed:
    TATA

    And it will be tata to the Coalition at the next election if Abbott does succeed. : )

  36. “Why is a Labor Reshuffle a sign that the PM is ‘panicked’, but when a Coalition PM does it it is a ‘Refresh’?”
    The ABC/MSM are utterly predictable about Labor and the LNP. They have a different standards for each (called bias). Best not to waste time watching, reading and listening to any of them.

  38. cupidstunt Sunday, November 27, 2016 at 2:22 pm

    Flipocrite = Trump will be the world no 1. soon.

    ************************************************

    Donald Trump has backed down on a host of extreme campaign promises

    SOME of Donald Trump’s strongest conservative supporters are already expressing disappointment over his perceived backdown on major campaign promises.

    Suddenly, the man who vowed to jail his opponent Hillary Clinton if he entered the White House — the man who inspired tens of thousands to chant “Lock her up!” at all his rallies — was expressing compassion for her.

    The man who repeatedly disregarded climate change as everything from a “hoax” to a “creation by the Chinese” was vowing to keep an open mind on taking action on global warming.

    The man who unapologetically vowed to ban Muslims, deport millions of immigrants and build a wall to “keep out Mexicans” was outright condemning the racial hate movement that hailed him as their leader.

    A number of his extreme-right supporters have voiced their frustration.

    http://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/donald-trump-has-backed-down-on-a-host-of-extreme-campaign-promises/news-story/d6c0a8a9b65ff90b5e83c7ea9270a1ab

  40. Sad that so many Americans were gullible enough to believe him and have shot themselves in the foot which they are probably good at over there.

  41. phoenixred @ #333 Sunday, November 27, 2016 at 2:21 pm

    bemused Sunday, November 27, 2016 at 2:00 pm
    Stuck at home all alone, not much to do so watching 633 Squadron on TV yet again.
    Seems it was made at a time (1964) when there were still quite a few operational WWII aircraft still around, particularly the amazing ‘wooden wonder’ Mosquito.
    *****************************************
    Bemused – I don’t know a lot about Australia and the Mosquito – but something like 200+ were ‘manufactured’ in Australia
    The de Havilland DH 98 Mosquito was perhaps the greatest all-round combat aircraft of World War II. The “Mossie” was originally designed as a fast, unarmed, light bomber. However, when flying tests commenced on 25 November 1940, this “wooden wonder” became the world’s fastest operational aircraft, with a top speed of almost 400 mph. It also out-manoeuvred most fighters, and could carry out upward rolls from ground level with one engine feathered. With such an outstanding potential, the Mosquito was developed to carry out practically every offensive task.
    In 1942, the Australian de Havilland factory at Bankstown commenced production of a fighter-bomber Mosquito, the DHA 98 FB Mk 40. Initial delays were caused by the unavailability of Canadian birchwood, and Australian coachwood had to be substituted. The first Australian Mosquito was delivered on 23 July 1943, and accepted by the RAAF on 5 March 1944.
    Short youtube video :
    Wooden Mosquito Airplane Manufacturing in Australia -1944 de Havilland DH98
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c7cVvYdLeek

    Very interesting.
    There is a pretty good write up in Wikipedia and later variants exceeded 400mph. Amazing.
    A fair bit went on in the Bankstown area in WWII. Heard of the ‘Bankstown Bunker’?

  42. On ABC and the Q&A programme, IPA gets an invitation probably once every 2 months, whilst the union gets to appear once a year. Given the union membership, one would think that the unions would be invited more frequently. Can anyone here give a rational explanation for this?

  43. bemused Sunday, November 27, 2016 at 2:37 pm

    Very interesting.
    There is a pretty good write up in Wikipedia and later variants exceeded 400mph. Amazing.
    A fair bit went on in the Bankstown area in WWII. Heard of the ‘Bankstown Bunker’?

    *****************************************

    Sadly my aeroplane wartime history of Australia is not quite as good as my UK/US ones – apart from my F- IN Law being a seasoned Rat Of Tobruk/Pacific campaigner who filled me in the terrible conditions that the Aussie Diggers endured in both places.

    Please elaborate on the ‘Bankstown Bunker’ ……

  44. C@Tmomma

    We’re all on song, then. 🙂

    When oh when are the MSM going to start pursuing Brandis? I’m getting very impatient.

  45. kop @ #342 Sunday, November 27, 2016 at 2:43 pm

    On ABC and the Q&A programme, IPA gets an invitation probably once every 2 months, whilst the union gets to appear once a year. Given the union membership, one would think that the unions would be invited more frequently. Can anyone here give a rational explanation for this?

    There have been some audible renovation works being carried out at 774 Melbourne during Jon Faine’s program and one of the texts he read out inquired if they were building an office for the IPA? 😀

  47. I’m not happy about this.

    Atherstone does indeed appear a well-planned neighbourhood, with orderly streets and wide footpaths, lovely parks and sporting fields galore; the ideal place to raise a family.

    But so too, it seems, it is a perfect place to park your money if you’re a cashed-up foreign investor.

    Atherstone – a joint venture between Lendlease​ and Melton Council to develop 481 hectares of crown land in Melton South– is being promoted and sold to investors in Asia.

    One ad in Singapore’s Straits Times newspaper this month spruiked “Melbourne Bungalows” in a “master-planned community” and – chillingly for those trying to get a toehold into the property market – is this line: “Invest before price increase”.

    The sales pitch in Singapore reflects a small but apparently growing phenomenon: overseas investors – particularly from Singapore, Malaysia and China – shifting their focus from Melbourne’s over-supplied apartment market, to new residential development on Melbourne’s fringe.

    The Melton South case is made especially sensitive by the fact that the land aggressively marketed in Singapore is, in part, publicly owned. Buy “freehold land direct from Victorian government from only $125,000”, says the newspaper ad.

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/public-land-spruiked-in-singapore-20161124-gsx10f.html

  50. Lizzie

    suggesting he would be less able to free range on policy ideas if he was bound by the discipline of cabinet.

    Or in plain language Tones s once again saying “Give me the job or I’ll wreck the joint”

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