BludgerTrack: 53.0-47.0 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continues to drift minimally in Labor’s favour.

Two new polls this week, from Newspoll and Essential Research (expect the post-election pollster duopoly to be broken over the next few days), produce an incremental move to Labor on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, sufficient to gain them a seat in Western Australia on the seat projection. Newspoll as always provided a new set of leadership ratings, which likewise failed to make much difference.

bt2019-2016-11-23

• A production error resulted in me neglecting to mention the Essential Research numbers earlier this week. There was a move back to the Coalition on two-party preferred, putting Labor’s two party lead at 52-48, with primary votes at Coalition 38% (up one), Labor 37% (steady), Greens 10% (down one), One Nation 6% (steady) and Nick Xenophon Team 3% (steady). Essential have surpassed themselves with their supplementary questions this week, by recording strikingly high levels of agreement with a series of pointedly Trumpian statements about the present state of our own nation. This included an 83-9 split in favour of “the government should bring manufacturing jobs to Australia”, 75-14 for “if people who are not Australian citizens commit a crime they should be deported”, 77-13 for “we should do more to stop people entering our country illegally”, 52-32 for “I would like to see Australia more like it was in the past” and 60-26 for “no matter who is in power the system is rigged against ordinary people”. There was a 46-40 split in favour of “racial equality has gone too far”, and 40-48 against “gender equality has gone too far” (no gender breakdown on the latter unfortunately). Other findings: 64-17 in favour of cutting back on 457 visas, 45-44 in favour of taxes to make junk food more expensive, 51-39 for a 20% levy on soft drinks, and 56-16 for resettling refugees on Nauru and Manus Island to the US.

• Possum Comitatus relates that union-commissioned polling in Queensland finds One Nation support “in the teens”, and that the support is driven not by “the things One Nation gets headlines and TV grabs for”, but rather by those who “think, in the general case, that the world is fucked and not operating as it was promised”. For what it’s worth, Campbell Newman rates that a shy Hansonite effect is causing polls to rate One Nation several points too low; that the party will win a bag of seats at the next state election; and that the Liberal National Party should be laying the groundwork to enter into a coalition with them. I had a fair to say on such matters in a paywalled article for Crikey yesterday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

467 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.0-47.0 to Labor”

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  1. Good morning.

    Let Dutton throw meat to the One Nation voters, while the Prime Minister keeps his hands clean.
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/one-nation-mark-two-the-soap-opera-that-will-dictate-this-parliament-20161124-gswq2i.html?
    The World Wildlife Fund said One Nation should have visited Lizard Island where bleaching, caused by high water temperatures, has killed much of the coral.
    http://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/climate-change/pauline-hanson-goes-snorkelling-in-wrong-spot-to-prove-untruths-on-the-great-barrier-reef/news-story/6ad038f83d330e8ba2fa10d988f4e529
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/nov/25/government-defends-coal-industry-ahead-of-unesco-report-on-reef?CMP=share_btn_tw
    In a depressing analysis of the challenges facing Australia’s fastest growing city, Infrastructure Victoria bluntly warns it will be impossible for Melbourne to build its way out of congestion.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/melbourne-faces-death-by-gridlock-even-with-billions-spent-on-new-roads-20161125-gsxeuf.html
    Male politicians tend to use negative power playing tactics to take the floor away from other female speakers or decrease their credibility, according to the study.
    https://www.buzzfeed.com/aliceworkman/negatively-interrupted-way-m?utm_term=.hsG92LOb2#.vb8LpnQ9p
    Why let the law get in the way of a court case?
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/george-brandis-is-unfit-to-sit-at-the-apex-of-the-nations-legal-system-20161125-gsxeo4.html
    As an exemplar of calm reason and restraint, Dutton is about as convincing as Tony Abbott would be leading Sydney’s Gay and Lesbian Mardi Gras.
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/dutton-the-voice-of-moderation-you-have-got-to-be-kidding-20161125-gsxk3l.html
    Shorten nailed this obscenity when he told parliament, “We in the Labor Party don’t start by calling them ‘second- and third-generation migrants’. We call them Australians.”
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2016/11/26/peter-duttons-racism-the-bottom/14800788004010
    Nick Xenophon on Friday announced his three senators would not back those bills – nor deal with the government on any legislation – until a dispute of Murray River water allocations is solved.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbulls-final-week-agenda-in-doubt-as-nick-xenophon-makes-threats-over-water-20161125-gsxmat.html

  2. The latest draconian measure targeting the ethnically divided region where 11 million Muslim Uighurs live.
    http://www.theage.com.au/world/china-orders-xinjiang-residents-to-turn-in-passports-in-bid-to-block-overseas-travel-20161125-gsxt5t.html
    Staff in the restaurant business the worst affected
    http://www.theage.com.au/business/workplace-relations/thousands-of-workers-find-out-theyre-being-ripped-off-20161125-gsxnp7.html
    Lanco’s move to switch from an employee-friendly wage agreement to statutory minimum pay when the agreement expired is among the first of its kind and has quickly become a national test case.
    http://www.watoday.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/five-years-after-the-boom-battle-rages-over-mining-wages-in-australia-20161123-gsvg98.html
    Malcolm Turnbull’s refugee resettlement deal with the United States could be at risk of collapse
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/us-republicans-demand-answers-on-refugee-deal-with-malcolm-turnbull-20161125-gsxy13.html
    Evidence continues to mount that global warming is having an impact on ecosystems across the planet in a myriad of ways, altering both individual species and ecological communities.
    http://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/nowhere-on-earth-safe-from-climate-change-as-survival-challenge-grows-20161123-gsvgcj.html
    “The dangerous thing about ignorance is that a man who is neither fair nor good nor sensible seems to himself to be sufficient.” Now apply that principle to the most powerful nation on earth.
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/dont-say-posttruth-say-plain-old-ignorance-20161124-gsxa8u.html
    Huge apartment blocks shoot up everywhere, darkening our streets, supposedly providing badly needed accommodation for our expanding population.
    http://www.theage.com.au/entertainment/with-every-little-house-or-pub-gone-developers-are-killing-melbournes-soul-20161118-gsse0o.html
    This is a message to musicians, to artists, to families. It is a call to boycott Australia Day celebrations on January 26. It is a call to find a new date to celebrate as one people.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2016/11/26/change-the-date/14800788004016
    The closure of the plant asks many important questions, few of which have been answered with any sophistication.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/ir/2016/11/26/the-hazelwood-closure-and-the-future-the-latrobe-valley/14800788004019

  3. Indications are Trump will not adhere to the broad foreign and security policy parameters within which US presidents have operated for decades. And there is a great deal of concern about that.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/2016/11/26/how-will-trumps-us-act-asia/14800788004017
    If Turnbull thinks Australia is the greatest multicultural nation on earth, which is the line he trots out when wanting to sound Churchillian, he needs to walk the walk, consistently, and make the case for social inclusion
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/nov/25/jo-cox-as-nationalism-is-weaponised-australia-desperately-needs-to-embrace-inclusive-patriotism
    Keating said “the dullards” in charge of Australia’s foreign policy regarded the relationship with the US as having a sacramental quality.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/nov/25/keating-says-australia-must-realise-trumps-focus-is-solely-on-us
    ‘Tyranny of majority’ should not dictate manner of exit from EU, says former PM in remarks likely to anger pro-Brexit Tories
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/25/brexit-sir-john-major-says-perfectly-credible-case-for-second-referendum
    Monbiot: I write this not to depress you, though I know it will have that effect, but to concentrate our minds on the scale of the task.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/25/13-crises-we-face-trump-soil-loss-global-collapse
    Barnaby struggles to justify his pork-barrelling promise against costs and loss of expertise.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/nov/25/baranaby-joyce-ensures-agency-move-to-his-electorate-cant-be-challenged
    Early signs are promising that One Nation mark II is going to be as exciting as a Mexican telenovela and as cringe-making as the very best reality TV.
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/one-nation-mark-two-the-soap-opera-that-will-dictate-this-parliament-20161124-gswq2i.html

  4. So libertarianism advocates confining governance to supporting private enterprise and otherwise doing away with government. This is consistent with Friedrich Hayek’s claim that we ought to and will evolve to interact only through transactions, and we will leave behind such evolutionarily backward traits as empathy and altruism.

    When neoliberals talk about “small government”, this is what they mean. So forget about public schools, hospitals, broadcasting, roads, sewerage, forget about supporting cultural activities, even sport, forget about supporting higher education, history, science and the rest. Forget about legal services for the poor, or offering a helping hand to those struggling with a raw deal for whatever reason, you’re being evolutionarily backward.

    Reagan and the Bushies in the US, the Tories in the UK and Howard, Abbott and his clone in Oz have, quietly or noisily, hacked away at the budgets of all these things. They employ a simple strategy to sell this approach politically: cut taxes on the rich, claiming this will generate “jobs and growth”, then cut public services under the imperative of “budget repair”.

    The sad and tragic thing is the nominally left parties, NZ Labour, Oz Labor, UK Labour, the US Democrats, joined in, even led the way. Brain dead. Thanks a lot Roger Douglas, Paul Keating, Tony Blair and Bill Clinton.

    Few seem to perceive the simple underlying strategy and goal of neoliberalism. It is to remove the means of governance from everything except those things that enable private enterprise. It is to promote anarchy in most parts of our society.

    https://newmatilda.com/2016/11/22/disgoverning-australia-pretend-youre-charge-promoting-anarchy/

  6. Fantastic, Lizzie! Thank you. : )

    If somewhat depressing reading as Monbiot says. The Vulgarians are truly in their pomp with the election of Trump. : (

  8. Food for thought from Elizabeth Farrelley in the SMH.

    She writes the history of Sydney as seen from some time not too far off in the future.

    “Although the planet was already groaning under climate change, Sydney’s government worked strenuously to encourage driving. It felled thousands of trees, demolished hundreds of homes. When people protested, protest was outlawed. When they begged their mayors for help, entire councils were sacked. When they pointed to dodgy developer connections, the corruption watchdog was gutted.

    “Finally, they gave the entire metropolis to a party-affiliated committee run by the very rich, the Greater Sydney Commission. In November 2016 the GSC divided Sydney into three cities: the ‘eastern-global’ city, the ‘central’ city of Parramatta, and the ‘far western city’ (the sprawl).

    “In theory, these three cities were equal. But one, the eastern city, had all the money, the revered institutions, the harbour, the beaches, the clean air, the global connections and of course, the decision-makers. Every road they built sent more pollution to the west and although the poor reliably voted for roads – those infrastructure gods are powerful – they were toll roads, so only the rich could use them.”

    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/sydney-is-at-a-crossroads-and-we-need-to-choose-our-future-20161124-gsx0s2.html

    Farrelley has been wrong before (notably regarding the longevity of Malcolm Turnbull’s reign as PM).

    Let us hope she is wrong on this one too.

  9. lizzie
    #4 Saturday, November 26, 2016 at 7:38 am
    How big is your newly dug bomb shelter?
    Are all the places booked?
    When all the good things planned as in:-

    When neoliberals talk about “small government”, this is what they mean. So forget about public schools, hospitals, broadcasting, roads, sewerage, forget about supporting cultural activities, even sport, forget about supporting higher education, history, science and the rest. Forget about legal services for the poor, or offering a helping hand to those struggling with a raw deal for whatever reason, you’re being evolutionarily backward.

    Will the perpetrators be able to eat high rise apartment blocks, copies of the Financial Review or the red dust where the vegetation used to be in NSW and Queensland or the alternatively burnt out or flooded out hills of Australia?
    An interesting program recently shown on either on somebodies ABC or SBS concerned what has happened in South Africa to poor white citizens. Many are living in squalor;-
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3462336/The-white-squatter-camps-South-Africa-home-hundreds-families-enduring-terrible-poverty-blame-fall-Apartheid.html
    Are there lessons to be learned? Of course! Blame everybody and everything except ourselves and work from there..
    The solution is clear – fingers in the ears – La La La La.
    On the other hand the regimental dog cares not a whit for any of this and she’s not alone.
    Vote for the NLP and the Hanson crew of ratbags or Next opportunists or even better deluded and stupid like those who simply love a headline and the sound of their own name.
    I think I am a little tristesse after a visit to the GPs surgery for a health evalutation.
    Those who are interested in such trivia will be pleased to know that I can remember the names of three things for at least a couple of minutes and can successfully count backwards from 100 by sevens.
    I will now devote the weekend planning to use this new found ability for the good of the nation. 100…93…86…79….72….65…58
    Thanks Lizzie for the news roundup. 🙂

  10. lizzie @ #7 Saturday, November 26, 2016 at 8:09 am

    C@Tmomma
    Having gulped all the news in just over an hour, I definitely feel a bit depressed.

    Christ, Lizzie, I just wrote beaucoup words to say just that.
    Mr Bill – Bushfire has compounded the effect or is it affect?
    We could calm ourselves by repeating the chant “it can’t get worse”. That should help. 😛

  11. KayJay

    I was given the same test twice, a month or so apart, and caused the neurologist to blink when I complained that they were the same three items she had chosen on the previous occasion. I suppose a genuine case wouldn’t have remembered. 😆

  12. Monbiot left out the rise of antibiotic resistance & superbugs.
    You could also add extreme pressure on resources(especially food) by a growing world population.

  14. Morning all.

    Laurie Oakes on Pauline Hanson.

    Firebrand Pauline has morphed into a serious senator. The bigoted, far-Right views are intact, but the shrillness has been toned down and a willingness to negotiate and compromise has emerged.

    None of which should really come as a surprise. Hanson, after all, has been involved in politics, one way or another, for more than 20 years. She was bound to learn lessons along the way.

    The success of Donald Trump’s US presidential election campaign, following the election of four One Nation senators in Australia in July, helped to legitimise Hanson and her organisation. And now, as they survey the political landscape, Australia’s Liberal, Labor and National parties have good reason to be afraid of her.

    …

    And a couple of One Nation’s more eccentric senators bring elements of both soap opera and comedy to the Upper House. In the process, though, they do Hanson a favour by making her seem less weird by comparison.

    There are rival theories about why Hanson appears to have mellowed. One is that, at 62 and with a six-year Senate term in front of her, she is relaxed and comfortable, and has lost some of the passion she once had.

    An alternative explanation is that she is simply “doing a Trump”.

    Just as The Donald is dumping his more off-the-wall promises after electoral success, it is claimed, Hanson is going quiet on some of her more outlandish proposals — such as a royal commission into Islam.

    More persuasive, though, is the argument that Hanson is treading warily because she sees a chance of One Nation actually getting into office in Queensland next year and does not want to jeopardise it.

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinion/laurie-oakes/one-nation-leader-pauline-hanson-now-a-real-player-in-politics-and-a-challenge-to-coalition-and-labor/news-story/86947bc5de1be66c623f1578bca02435

  15. Cartoon Corner Part 1:
    A bumper crop of cartoons for today.

    A brilliant one from David Rowe:

    Moir also thinks Dutton is causing trouble:

    David Pope also on the theme of Dutton’s comments this week:

    Andrew Dyson on America and Australia’s recent choices:

    Leunig on some of us not doing so well?

  16. Part II
    A few good ones from Cathy Wilcox:

    on Hanson:

    And on fizzy sugary drinks: Is it is fizz that it is making us too fat?

    We are nervous about the future:

    and on NSW’s new Nationals leader forgetting to mention that 2 million dollar holiday house he lets through Air BnB:

    Mark David on Turnbull’s poll figures:

    Mark Knight for those in AFL land. I am not sire of the context for tis one:
    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinion/latest-mark-knight-cartoons/image-gallery/3a75151fbab76180dfd2225950ca23da

  17. Part III
    Zanetti on the senate cross bench:

    Tandberg with one entitles “The lesson’s of history”:

    Des anyone have the context for this Horacek cartoon?

    Bill Leak has found someone else to hate:

  19. Confessions

    Treading warily? Racing off to an undamaged section of the Reef to prove there is no such things as damage? I suspect the hand of Roberts.

  21. Antonbruckner11

    Mal is switching the MDB plan from water to economic effects. So no real water for the river, just a bit of trickling down.

  23. On Oakes’ article: in retrospect, we know an awful lot about Hanson’s last stint in Parliament, with numerous books and articles written about it. It was very clear that she did what her advisors – particularly Pasquerelli (?) – told her to do.

    If her behaviour has changed, I would look at who is advising her now. (It is quite possible that, given her past experiences and the public humiliations which have followed — it would be ‘character building’, to say the least, to have it stated publically that someone only slept with you to help their boss – she isn’t listening to anyone, and we’re getting the Real Pauline).

    It should also be pointed out – given that Oakes seems to be stating that Hanson is more credible because of Trump and that various commentators talk as if her numbers in the Senate somehow legitimises her views – that Hanson didn’t (votewise) perform particularly well in the last election. She didn’t win seats because there was a groundswell of support for her views (and thus her views have popular appeal) but because there was a Double Dissolution.

  25. lizzie @ #11 Saturday, November 26, 2016 at 8:51 am

    KayJay
    I was given the same test twice, a month or so apart, and caused the neurologist to blink when I complained that they were the same three items she had chosen on the previous occasion. I suppose a genuine case wouldn’t have remembered.

    Lizzie, I had a wonderful time. I treat these events as a social occasion. My senior best loved and favourite daughter was with me (or me with her) and explained to the lovely nurse that I am a little deaf. The nurse leaned close to me, speaking clearly and I said to her “I thought you were going to kiss me”.
    When we got to the three items I asked could they be “apple, penny and table”. I remembered my wife taking this test over ten years ago and each year we laughed because we both remembered those three items plus “14 High Street, Kensington”.
    I had to answer a lot of questions – yes or no.
    Are you happy
    Do you get bored
    Do you think other people are better off
    and so on
    And then lovely nurse said “you look younger”. Naturally I asked “do you want a yes or no?”.
    I am rambling again. Time for housework. 😆

  31. When Oakes says Hanson has a chance of “getting into office” at the next Queensland election, is he seriously saying there is a chance of a One Nation Premier and government.

    Is it that bad in the Far North, or does Oakes mean “getting some seats”, or is Oakes bonkers???

  32. ctar1 @ #30 Saturday, November 26, 2016 at 9:29 am

    More madness:

    In fact, a survey of 443 Australian GPs earlier this year found a third had seen patients aged under 18 wanting to trim or shape their genitalia.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-26/are-designer-vaginas-the-same-as-female-genital-mutilation/8056842

    I note that this refers to females.
    On the political scene apparently, friends and neighbours of our Prime Minister either have or would like to shape or remove said genitalia. 😎

  33. It’s pretty obvious to me that One Nation is currently being run by Malcolm Roberts.

    How Pauline reacts once the penny drops is anyone’s guess …

  36. CTar1

    I share your opinion. It’s the legacy of too much porn-watching, leading to unrealistic ideas about the human body. I link it to the current fashion for hairless females.

  37. psyclaw @ #31 Saturday, November 26, 2016 at 9:33 am

    When Oakes says Hanson has a chance of “getting into office” at the next Queensland election, is he seriously saying there is a chance of a One Nation Premier and government.
    Is it that bad in the Far North, or does Oakes mean “getting some seats”, or is Oakes bonkers???

    Don’t forget that Queensland elected Joh bananas for years.

  38. Pysclaw:

    I think Oakes means a ‘coalition’ with the Coalition. I dont think One Nation has the ability to form government in QLD after the next election. The only factor that could influence how much seats/power/cabinet spots is the move to compulsory preferences. I dont know how to account for the change.

  40. I interpreted Oakes’ remarks regarding One Nation ‘getting into office’ means that One Nation could hold the Balance of Power in the Queensland Parliament after the next State Election, due by early 2018. That seems entirely possible, provided the party manages to avoid disintegrating and it is able to repeat something like it’s 1998 performance. One Nation could well be in a position to demand a role in a coalition with the LNP, and today’s LNP is much more inclined to deal with them. One Nation could be ‘in office’, like the Greens have been in Tasmania and the ACT.

  41. psyclaw and TPOF

    I think the probability/possibility is that PHON will hold the balance of power in Qld after the next election. Already there are 4 North Qlders and if you add 4 or so ON from Central Qld then there is a largish block of “regional” votes. If Ipswich area also were to go for their old MP then another swag of seats could go to this sort of loose coalition.

  42. Psyclaw,

    There is plenty of talk up here in Queensland re One Nation getting enough seats at the next state election to hold the balance of power and perhaps enter into a coalition government with the LNP giving One Nation seats at the state cabinet desk.

    The LNP are hyperventilating at the moment with good reason. One Nation will be very strong ( on current state polling ) in regional Queensland.

    Still at least 12 months to go so we shall see.

    Cheers.

  44. My observation of the latest Brandis imbroglio, is that if it were a Labor MP and Abbott was OL, he would be having another presser this morning demanding answers from Shorten and the MP pronto. Abbott was a master at creating a crisis even if there wasnt one. Labor need to get tougher on this. Demand some answers

  48. At 5.30am today ABC RN had a show “What Stops You from Sleeping”.

    Host was Peta Seaton?? an “ex NSW Lib MP”, Gary Johns from Keating’s ministry and 2 others.

    All were arguing that individuals should be able to “opt out” of government control and be DIY in all areas of life.

    Towns like Walgett should be able to opt out of the judicial system, individuals should be able to opt out of all aspects of Medicare and PBS and go it alone (ie buy their pills online from anywhere), home builders should be able to opt out of building regs and build what and how they want (opting out of electricity and plumbing regs / rules was specifically mentioned).

    The market the market the market the market will ensure all opter-outs will succeed.

    Being half asleep I suddenly woke and thought I was on another planet.

    The whole argument was predicated on the basis that society doesn’t exist; that paying our way (taxs) and giving up some individual rights for the common good and better social organisation (eg forgoing our “right” to use whatever gauge electricity wiring in our house we want, instead of having lecko standards …. to protect the next occupier from dying because of the first owner’s opting out of the regs) is the worst ever invention of mankind.

    No answers of course to how the DIY health model will go when “the market” can’t handle excessive expenses in later life.

    And we think Malcolm Roberts is way out.

  49. If something like the Brandis imbrogio happened to a Labor Attorney General, demands for the AG’s resignation would scream from the front page of the Daily Telecrap (and its interstate stablemates) and the ubiquitous banners all over NSW. As it is, the Telecrap front page is divided between crime (someone arrested for a kidnapping 18 years ago) and an ‘Exclusive’ (a drop from a Minister’s office) about changes to the Citizenship test that combines bashing of both welfare recipients and migrants).

  50. Steve777

    So true. Although, if the Telecrap got its marching orders from the powers that be, to put pressure on Brandis to depart the scene, they will oblige. That is how they roll.

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