BludgerTrack: 53.0-47.0 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continues to drift minimally in Labor’s favour.

Two new polls this week, from Newspoll and Essential Research (expect the post-election pollster duopoly to be broken over the next few days), produce an incremental move to Labor on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, sufficient to gain them a seat in Western Australia on the seat projection. Newspoll as always provided a new set of leadership ratings, which likewise failed to make much difference.

bt2019-2016-11-23

• A production error resulted in me neglecting to mention the Essential Research numbers earlier this week. There was a move back to the Coalition on two-party preferred, putting Labor’s two party lead at 52-48, with primary votes at Coalition 38% (up one), Labor 37% (steady), Greens 10% (down one), One Nation 6% (steady) and Nick Xenophon Team 3% (steady). Essential have surpassed themselves with their supplementary questions this week, by recording strikingly high levels of agreement with a series of pointedly Trumpian statements about the present state of our own nation. This included an 83-9 split in favour of “the government should bring manufacturing jobs to Australia”, 75-14 for “if people who are not Australian citizens commit a crime they should be deported”, 77-13 for “we should do more to stop people entering our country illegally”, 52-32 for “I would like to see Australia more like it was in the past” and 60-26 for “no matter who is in power the system is rigged against ordinary people”. There was a 46-40 split in favour of “racial equality has gone too far”, and 40-48 against “gender equality has gone too far” (no gender breakdown on the latter unfortunately). Other findings: 64-17 in favour of cutting back on 457 visas, 45-44 in favour of taxes to make junk food more expensive, 51-39 for a 20% levy on soft drinks, and 56-16 for resettling refugees on Nauru and Manus Island to the US.

• Possum Comitatus relates that union-commissioned polling in Queensland finds One Nation support “in the teens”, and that the support is driven not by “the things One Nation gets headlines and TV grabs for”, but rather by those who “think, in the general case, that the world is fucked and not operating as it was promised”. For what it’s worth, Campbell Newman rates that a shy Hansonite effect is causing polls to rate One Nation several points too low; that the party will win a bag of seats at the next state election; and that the Liberal National Party should be laying the groundwork to enter into a coalition with them. I had a fair to say on such matters in a paywalled article for Crikey yesterday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

467 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.0-47.0 to Labor”

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  1. Doyley

    Thank you.

    Of course PHON balance of power is very possible. One would have thought that the great Oakes would be familiar with that term, which is quite specificas opposed to “getting into office”.

    As to Joh’s period, I was of the impression that his gerrymandering had now been rectified, several decades back ????

  2. ‘My observation of the latest Brandis imbroglio, is that if it were a Labor MP and Abbott was OL, he would be having another presser this morning demanding answers from Shorten and the MP pronto. Abbott was a master at creating a crisis even if there wasnt one. Labor need to get tougher on this. Demand some answers’

    Yes indeed. Does Labor have anyone with a bit of mongrel in them? Used to be Albo, but he’s gone a bit soft lately.

  3. It isn’t just Qld that OH is supposedly a threat. The Nats here are reportedly very concerned about the prospect of losing seats to ON as they have promised to target Nat seats at the state election in March next year.

  4. Frankly Labor shouldn’t push for Brandis’ resignation too hard as he’s the worst Minister in living memory (although William says Dutton is). He is a disaster zone who sheds votes for the Coalition like a snake sheds its skin.

  5. Victoria:

    That Brandis and Dutton haven’t been sacked underscores the real lack of authority Turnbull has. You have to wonder how long this can go on for.

  7. Reich Minister Dutton at work.

    Peter Dutton was briefed 18 months ago that evidence used in Egypt to convict him was discredited

    Now, new documents obtained under freedom of information legislation reveal the government has known for nearly 18 months that the evidence used to convict Abdellatif in absentia in a mass show trial in Egypt in 1999 – the basis for his detention in Australia – was obtained “under severe torture” and is discredited.

    His detention has been condemned by the UN human rights council as illegal, a “clearly disproportionate… deprivation of liberty” from which he should be released and for which he should be compensated; excoriated by the Australian Human Rights Commission as “arbitrary … and unjustified”; and criticised by the Australian government’s own inspector general of intelligence and security for its “lack of coordination and … urgency”.

    Where once he could wave to his family through a wire fence, he has been told by guards – without explanation – that the behaviour was a security risk and prohibited.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/26/australian-government-concedes-evidence-against-asylum-seeker-was-obtained-by-torture

  8. C@t,
    Thanks in advance for doing the cartoons tomorrow.
    I always find it hard to find stuff on Sunday and Monday. I think these are the cartoonists days off.
    Lizzie, thanks again for the news links. They have kept me busy for a couple of hours now. Time for me to do something else now, I think.

  9. “Has John Rau just had enough of politics or is there some other reason?”
    There is a lot of talk he wants to become a Judge rather than run at the next election. Weatherill’s number is up and I’m sure Labor has chosen a successor who would take over if the lose the next election. Perhaps Turbo Tom got the nod and Rau is fed up. It’s a very selfish act which is causing Labor a huge amount of grief politically as it looks like the last days when you grab what you can on the way out. I though Rau was better than that.

  11. Kayjay, Lizzie,
    Earlier this year my mother fell, had a strike to the head and was dazed, on arriving at the hospital the nurse very sheepishly asked
    “Do you know who the Prime Minister is?”

    She said afterwards it didn’t matter too much if people didn’t get the answer correct.

  12. Dio:

    Surely it’s more important that the country’s AG is someone even vaguely competent, if not at the very least someone with ethics.

  13. http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2016/11/25/turnbull-brandis-corruption-gaffe/

    Poor widdle Malcolm is ‘more than infuriated’ by Toad of Toad Hall.

    If only he was in a position of authority, you know like PM or something, where he could do something about the serial fuck up.

    As I said yesterday, a diplomatic or judicial post just ain’t gonna fly anymore. He is facing serious allegations of actual corruption to divert $300mil of Commonwealth money to WA. And he hasn’t even denied it. Rewarding crooks with plumb posts must surely even be too far for these vandals to get away with.

  14. Earlier this year my mother fell, had a strike to the head and was dazed, on arriving at the hospital the nurse very sheepishly asked
    “Do you know who the Prime Minister is?”

    Whoever has possession of the box with Turnbull’s goolies in it this week.

  16. CTARI
    Turkey is most definitely a puzzle and wild card. Renegade probably too, although I suppose that depends on where you come from – renegade from what? Unpredictable and untrustworthy seem apt descriptions too.

    Turkey is not part of the Eurozone and has always wanted to be. Much of its recent behaviour has been based on this desire to join the European club. However increasingly it is obvious that Turkey will NEVER be allowed in and even if it were let in this would be in the months before the total collapse of the EEC anyway (eg if Le Penn is President of France). So Turkey no longer has much incentive to “play nice” with Europe.

    Turkey does however have a bargaining chip ie millions of refugees. It is costly to keep these refugees, so opening the gates to Europe for them all would be an option if there is no longer anything to be gained by appeasing the EEC.

    There is lots lots more that is complex in this Turkey evaluation but in the intersts of brevity just this.

  17. The regulatory equivalent of trickle down. ‘Remove compliance requirements and watch us employ loads more people!’.

    Mrs Rinehart said business could better afford to hire some of the 700,000 unemployed Australians if it did not have to spend an estimated $176 billion a year complying with red tape.

    Mr Goyder said Wesfarmers, Australia’s biggest private employer with 200,000 workers, would immediately employ hundreds more staff at Coles and Bunnings if WA trading restrictions were relaxed to add nine extra shopping hours a week.

    But at least this business leader is breaking from the groupthink (Dale Alcock is a builder):

    While the business leaders had varying views on the forseeability of the unemployment spike, Mr Alcock was firm in his belief that the economy should have been broadened to take over from mining when it declined.

    “The State played to that (mining) so aggressively, it was the only thing that the government focused on for a decade in this place,” he said.

    “There was a period there — a long period — where our industry could not get in front of government.”

    https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/33329231/get-wa-back-to-work/#page1

  19. Has someone asked our esteemed PM?

    Bernard Keane
    Bernard Keane – Verified account ‏@BernardKeane

    What do you call it when the PM and the AG conspire to do the taxpayer out of $300m as a favour to a political mate?
    5:15 PM – 24 Nov 2016
    456 RETWEETS350 LIKES

  20. On Brandis I can’t believe it isn’t a bigger deal.

    On One nation Oakes is a dill. The party is already in complete disarray. I love the way the CPG all think that being an obnoxious dick is suddenly a master political tactic without ever stopping to think that part of their job is to make sure that it isn’t.

  21. Dameyon Bonson ‏@DameyonBonson · 19h19 hours ago  Perth, Western Australia

    While kids kill themselves because of teasing & being bullied, adults are fighting to be able to ‘offend, insult, humiliate or intimidate’.

  22. insiders might be worthwhile. Journo that broke story re Brandis is on panel

    Insiders ABC
    20h20 hours ago
    Insiders ABC ‏@InsidersABC
    On Sunday, @barriecassidy is joined by @MathiasCormann and panel: @latingle, @frankelly08 & @swrightwestoz. Tune in from 9am. #insiders
    Embedded image

  25. I can’t understand why voters in WA aren’t taking a look at who they elected from One Nation to put into the federal parliament and so having second thoughts about electing One Nation’s second stringers for State Parliament.

  26. Poroti

    Good point

    Question
    In Qld the ALP is certainly taking ON seriously. They are kowtowing to regional sentiment, hence the Adani go ahead. It is not JUST Hanson herself but the views they represent. Regional Qld AND outer suburban areas could swing that way. With a majority that already depends on two renegade Northern ALP types and Katter, ON is a real threat.

  28. Picture says it all?

    Terry Hughes ‏@ProfTerryHughes · 38m38 minutes ago

    It is illegal to rip up a coral from the #GreatBarrierReef Marine Park and expose it to air pic.twitter.com/c1sn6OnF4W

    :large

  29. john reidy @ #61 Saturday, November 26, 2016 at 10:14 am

    Kayjay, Lizzie,
    Earlier this year my mother fell, had a strike to the head and was dazed, on arriving at the hospital the nurse very sheepishly asked
    “Do you know who the Prime Minister is?”
    She said afterwards it didn’t matter too much if people didn’t get the answer correct.

    I’m sorry your mum hurt herself. I’m glad there is a hospital and a sheepish nurse.
    I always answer “Who cares”.
    I didn’t know the date the other day. I was alright with 2016, Spring, November but thought it was maybe the 28th. I explained that I have a watch to check if I need to know.
    🙂

  30. http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/how-malcolm-turnbull-can-shape-up-for-the-new-year-20161124-gsx3ey.html

    There is also talk that Dutton and Workplace Minister Michaelia Cash could be handed new assignments, but stay in cabinet.

    I wonder where Dutton could go. He proved inactive in Health, but could perhaps take on a new lease of life in reviling the sick this time around. He’d also suit Social Welfare, as there is immense scope for his talent, discouraging pensioners or thinking up new ways to punish the unemployed.
    I can’t imagine Cash anywhere. Small business perhaps? She’d make sure it stayed small.

  31. Question

    “On One nation Oakes is a dill. The party is already in complete disarray. I love the way the CPG all think that being an obnoxious dick is suddenly a master political tactic without ever stopping to think that part of their job is to make sure that it isn’t.”

    Well said.

    And why would there be any more significant post Trump growth in PHON’s Federal %s as the future unfolds.

    IMHO anyone inclined to vote for them did so 4 months ago. And their performances thus far and ongoing since being elected are unlikely to attract additional voters, who since they did not vote for them in July (being reticent and rational ( ???) PHON supporters) are now unlikely to change their minds.

    It is different for upcoming state elections where post Trump baselines of stupidity (measured by the % of fools who actually think PHON is competent and capable and vote for them) have yet to be established.

  33. Dio

    On John Rau, interesting.

    I knew him a bit long ago (well enough to have a couple of pub lunches) when he was a staffer in Mick Young’s office.

    Close mouthed he always was – and immaculately groomed and dressed.

  36. Trump now has a world-renowned brand, and he will exploit it.

    Think about this – at this hotel just a few blocks from the White House, Trump has appointed an executive to go after the business of foreign officials who will be coming to town to, um, see him. And of course they’ll be coming for his inauguration – only $US20,000 a night for the penthouse, and bookings will be accepted only for five or more nights.

    http://www.theage.com.au/world/us-election/donald-trumps-family-settle-in-for-the-good-times-20161124-gsx8u8.html

  37. Dtt

    Yep.

    Turkey having a tantrum because it will not even come close to meeting the EC requirements.

    With the Kurds and the number of people Erdogan has had sacked / locked up this year the place must be a powder keg.

  39. My take on the next Qld election
    1. The seats most likely to be won by PHON are currently held by the LNP
    2. If it is possible to become even more lacklustre, the LNP are doing it, in both their rural and city incarnations.
    3. PHON votes in current ALP seats are likely to come from both the ALP and the LNP and flow back in similar if not identical proportions.
    4. Early indications are that the increase in number of seats from 89 to 93 and the accompanying redistribution are likely to slightly favour the ALP
    5. Reintroduction of compulsory preferential voting is likely to favour the ALP.
    6. With a PHON threat, Greens preferencing to the ALP is likely to be pretty tight.
    It will still be a fight for the ALP, but it’s certainly not a lost cause. The Government has been getting on with governing and doing lots of high visibility policies and other things like regional cabinet meetings. I actually think regional cabinet meetings even play out well in the city, as voters see the government as being serious about trying to get to grips with all the problems of the state.
    Despite concern on “teh left” (with which I would normally align myself) about Adani, I think the government’s policy of playing a straight bat on approvals and no special blobs of money is the right one. I think Adani will eventually fail on economic grounds anyway and there are no votes in being seen to hasten such an outcome. In the meantime Adani is actually building a large solar power plant to be grid connected in central Queensland! http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-21/adani-begins-planning-for-queensland-solar-plant/8041816 If it doesn’t fail on economic grounds, that will be because it is one of the most efficient mines for the residual demand for coal that will exist as coal fired power generation is wound down worldwide (a process Australia has only a very small influence over). So the losers will be mines in other parts of the world that go out of business.

  40. This little flare-up still won’t go away.

    The CFA has launched a sweeping investigation into allegations of illegal fundraising by volunteer firefighters to help pay for a political war against the Andrews government.

    In an escalating conflict, the CFA has vowed to take action against any “unauthorised fundraising activities” used to support a campaign by Volunteer Fire Brigades Victoria against a controversial industrial deal with the firefighters union.

    The volunteers’ campaign – which included a costly Supreme Court battle – followed claims the agreement would have undermined their role and given the union excessive powers to interfere in CFA management decisions.

    In a letter sent to all brigades on Friday, CFA chief executive Frances Diver said “all instances” of unauthorised fundraising would be investigated, warning individuals could face penalties.

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/cfa-to-investigate-improper-fundraising-by-volunteer-firefighters-20161125-gsxwb7.html

  41. I reckon it would be a good move for Shorten to move a no-confidence vote in parliament next week, not in the Government, but in the Prime Minister.

    Could be a “light touch paper and retire” action – interesting to see how enthusiastic the LNP troops are in defending their leader.

  43. Ajm

    I think Adani will eventually fail on economic grounds anyway and there are no votes in being seen to hasten such an outcome.

    I think you are dead right on this.

  45. Victoria

    The fiberals have their paw prints all over the CFA dispute

    They certainly do, and have distorted things to fire up volunteers even where they’re not affected.
    I’m concerned that people will donate because the CFA has a good name, not realising what the money will be used for.

  46. Seems the Victorian fire fighters stoush is SOP.

    The Turf War Mentality
    Underlying VFBV’s obstruction of the CFA EBA is a mentality of petty turf warfare. It’s a mindset that began 130 years ago. Then, as now, progress in the name of public safety faced opposition in the name of misplaced territorialism.
    The 1880s Fire Service Turf War
    The CFA and MFB as we know them were born of the Government’s 1890 intervention in bitter turf war that had erupted into violence. This was the culmination of decades of tensions between the two categories of fire brigades in Melbourne: insurance brigades and volunteer brigades.

    Port Phillip Gazette 12/10/1842
    The insurance brigades were crewed by paid firemen. These sprang up in the 1840s, after

    https://medium.com/@ebatruth/the-turf-war-mentality-c9fe0f642f53#.7i28z8iym

    1889 Argus…. the meeting win to discuss the demon Stratton programme, which he was quite prepared to do, and to do everything he could to make it a success (Hear, hear ) but the country brigades had no right to dictate to him to what association he should belong,,,,
    http://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/8573441

  48. john reidy @ #61 Saturday, November 26, 2016 at 10:14 am

    Kayjay, Lizzie,
    Earlier this year my mother fell, had a strike to the head and was dazed, on arriving at the hospital the nurse very sheepishly asked
    “Do you know who the Prime Minister is?”
    She said afterwards it didn’t matter too much if people didn’t get the answer correct.

    Did that question provoke a tirade in response? 😀

  50. I don’t think that Dutton is as stupid as he looks but he is as malevolent. He is playing a deliberate strategy with the PM’s acquiecence or active support (who knows or cares) to keep bigots in the Coalition fold and to prise them off One Nation and other Far Right groups.

    Brandis, on the other hand, is as stupid as he looks.

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