BludgerTrack: 53.0-47.0 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continues to drift minimally in Labor’s favour.

Two new polls this week, from Newspoll and Essential Research (expect the post-election pollster duopoly to be broken over the next few days), produce an incremental move to Labor on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, sufficient to gain them a seat in Western Australia on the seat projection. Newspoll as always provided a new set of leadership ratings, which likewise failed to make much difference.


• A production error resulted in me neglecting to mention the Essential Research numbers earlier this week. There was a move back to the Coalition on two-party preferred, putting Labor’s two party lead at 52-48, with primary votes at Coalition 38% (up one), Labor 37% (steady), Greens 10% (down one), One Nation 6% (steady) and Nick Xenophon Team 3% (steady). Essential have surpassed themselves with their supplementary questions this week, by recording strikingly high levels of agreement with a series of pointedly Trumpian statements about the present state of our own nation. This included an 83-9 split in favour of “the government should bring manufacturing jobs to Australia”, 75-14 for “if people who are not Australian citizens commit a crime they should be deported”, 77-13 for “we should do more to stop people entering our country illegally”, 52-32 for “I would like to see Australia more like it was in the past” and 60-26 for “no matter who is in power the system is rigged against ordinary people”. There was a 46-40 split in favour of “racial equality has gone too far”, and 40-48 against “gender equality has gone too far” (no gender breakdown on the latter unfortunately). Other findings: 64-17 in favour of cutting back on 457 visas, 45-44 in favour of taxes to make junk food more expensive, 51-39 for a 20% levy on soft drinks, and 56-16 for resettling refugees on Nauru and Manus Island to the US.

• Possum Comitatus relates that union-commissioned polling in Queensland finds One Nation support “in the teens”, and that the support is driven not by “the things One Nation gets headlines and TV grabs for”, but rather by those who “think, in the general case, that the world is fucked and not operating as it was promised”. For what it’s worth, Campbell Newman rates that a shy Hansonite effect is causing polls to rate One Nation several points too low; that the party will win a bag of seats at the next state election; and that the Liberal National Party should be laying the groundwork to enter into a coalition with them. I had a fair to say on such matters in a paywalled article for Crikey yesterday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

467 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.0-47.0 to Labor”

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  1. The Sydney Morning Herald
    14 mins ·
    The Herald condemns Immigration Minister Peter Dutton for being ignorant – or deliberately blind – to the message he sent, and for potentially increasing the risk of Islamic radicalisation.

    Via SMH Facebook page.

  2. The more the ABC becomes indistinguishable from its commercial counterparts, the more its reason for existence evaporates.

    Who the hell needs a publicly funded commercial TV station?

  3. Will be very interesting to see how things play out this week

    Wont it but!!

    With Abbott stirring the pot, and the odious Brandis getting exposed..well that would be enough for me. However, a head to head between X and Barnyard wi;; be entertainment plus.

    All X has to do is say no, until Barnyard does something to lock in beyond doubt the 450gl he seems to have promised elsewhere. 🙂

    And phon will try and find new ways to less irrelevant.

  4. Fess

    Spot on by the SMH. What I was rambling on about last week. All Dutton has managed to do is make the job of our security agencies more challenging. Dutton did this knowingly. Merely to score some political mileage to grab some one nation defectors. What is even worse is Turnbull being complicit. What a disgrace.

  5. Adrian:

    Of course that is the goal. I just wish more people would wake up and smell the undermining reality instead of snarking off at those of us who call it out.

  6. Vic:

    This govt is arguably even worse than its predecessor in terms of policy. But at least Fairfax has come to its senses having editorialised for an Abbott govt back in the day for no justifiable reason.

  7. Jackol
    Sunday, November 27, 2016 at 4:06 pm

    So Cormann’s framing may simply be misleading and irrelevant spin, but might not be outright lying.

    Thanks for that Jackol, but given the government originally patted themselves on the back for finding a half billion $$$ saving I’d say that blaming Swan for the debacle of their own making is much closer to an outright lie than spin.

  8. Regarding Crowded House, Neil Finn is one of the most revered composers of popular songs on the planet, as opposed to just Australia and NZ. Two or three good songs? Whoever said that is being a bit churlish. The band sold 10 million albums. Off the top of my head (in no particular order): Something So Strong, Better Be Home Soon, Weather With You, Chocolate Cake, Fall At Your Feet, Sister Madly, Distant Sun….I could go on and on.
    At the first Opera House show they did, pretty much the entire audience sang every word of every song. Very few performers can claim that.

  9. Citizen
    Sunday, November 27, 2016 at 8:31 pm
    Timbu[k]tu would be a fitting post for Brandis.

    Oh no!
    Sounds like cruel and unusual affliction for T.
    The good people of T need a wall/ fence/ barbed wire on the nearest beach/ road, rail or airport services suspended …

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