BludgerTrack: 53.0-47.0 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continues to drift minimally in Labor’s favour.

Two new polls this week, from Newspoll and Essential Research (expect the post-election pollster duopoly to be broken over the next few days), produce an incremental move to Labor on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, sufficient to gain them a seat in Western Australia on the seat projection. Newspoll as always provided a new set of leadership ratings, which likewise failed to make much difference.


• A production error resulted in me neglecting to mention the Essential Research numbers earlier this week. There was a move back to the Coalition on two-party preferred, putting Labor’s two party lead at 52-48, with primary votes at Coalition 38% (up one), Labor 37% (steady), Greens 10% (down one), One Nation 6% (steady) and Nick Xenophon Team 3% (steady). Essential have surpassed themselves with their supplementary questions this week, by recording strikingly high levels of agreement with a series of pointedly Trumpian statements about the present state of our own nation. This included an 83-9 split in favour of “the government should bring manufacturing jobs to Australia”, 75-14 for “if people who are not Australian citizens commit a crime they should be deported”, 77-13 for “we should do more to stop people entering our country illegally”, 52-32 for “I would like to see Australia more like it was in the past” and 60-26 for “no matter who is in power the system is rigged against ordinary people”. There was a 46-40 split in favour of “racial equality has gone too far”, and 40-48 against “gender equality has gone too far” (no gender breakdown on the latter unfortunately). Other findings: 64-17 in favour of cutting back on 457 visas, 45-44 in favour of taxes to make junk food more expensive, 51-39 for a 20% levy on soft drinks, and 56-16 for resettling refugees on Nauru and Manus Island to the US.

• Possum Comitatus relates that union-commissioned polling in Queensland finds One Nation support “in the teens”, and that the support is driven not by “the things One Nation gets headlines and TV grabs for”, but rather by those who “think, in the general case, that the world is fucked and not operating as it was promised”. For what it’s worth, Campbell Newman rates that a shy Hansonite effect is causing polls to rate One Nation several points too low; that the party will win a bag of seats at the next state election; and that the Liberal National Party should be laying the groundwork to enter into a coalition with them. I had a fair to say on such matters in a paywalled article for Crikey yesterday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

467 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.0-47.0 to Labor”

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  1. West Australia Premier Colin Barnett is unfazed that Pauline Hanson has set her sights on the state and dismissed claims preference deals are being struck with One Nation for the March 11 election.

    “The Liberal Party would expect to come first or second in every seat in the state election,” he told reporters on Sunday.

    “Our preferences as a party will go to the National Party, it’s as simple as that.”


  2. I’ve always thought that Malcolm would send bookshelves to London to get rid of him. But I’m wondering now if the stink is so great that he can’t. Be interesting to see.

    Viscount Downer isn’t giving up his post. He was well and truly putting Turnbull on notice that the ‘no vacancy’ sign was out months ago when Brandis was just a dropkick that needed to moved out of harms way. Now that he’s been shown to be up to his neck in flat out corruption Alexander will make sure the price of his removal is far too steep for Malcolm to afford.

    It’s hilarious to still see the MSM frantically polishing. Turnbull is in a world of shit. His signature legislation is going down, his AG attracts trouble like a black hole attracts matter, his DPM actively undermines him for a bit of cheering from his own rusted ons and doesn’t give a shit if the PM or the Government gets hurt, his treasurer is incompetent, his immigration minister is actively trying to piss of a significant proportion of the community, Christensen is out saying he now supports the Banking RC his Merchant Banker PM has been doing contortions to kill off, and his predecessor is out and proud saying give me what I want or I’ll wreck the joint.

    Gillard never faced such a complete confluence of crap. As others have noted, if a Labor PM was in this position the front pages would be demanding their head. It won’t save Turnbull of course. Each clusterfuck he manages to survive just brings the one that finally does him in closer. The clusterfucks don’t end. Because at the end of the day he and his party is the source of them all and their potency for screwing up is only getting stronger.

  3. From over the road. An inspiring quote from a Coalition Immigration Minister ? Truly really, it was once possible such a thing would happen. Doubt you would hear this from Labor either such is the poison that flows in the body politic these days.

  4. Maybe Brandis could be made Ambassador to somewhere glamorous but unimportant. Makcolm could appoint him as Ambassador to Monacco. Shouldn’t cost more than a couple of dozen millions. An incoming Labor Government can abolish the post, hopefully in about two years’ time.

  5. Why should Brandis be offered anything at all? The man is quite simply incompetent and doesn’t deserve to be our representative anywhere whether it be the Senate, the UK or anywhere else!

  6. Leyonhjelm is just having a fuss because he didnt get his Adler gun ban lifted while Xenophon might successfully trade his ABCC vote for water (and his amendments for subcontractors). Leyonhjelm might just be outmanouvered by others. I’m also sure that Barnaby doesnt give two shits about South Australia as the nats are non-existent there.

  7. Confessions – I agree. I was just being…. whimsical?

    Brandis is a no-talent nonentity with a vastly inflated opinion of his talent and entitlement, in fact delusions of competence.

  8. Are we allowed to think that Fidel Castro was a revolutionary who overthrew a vile dictatorship and also a vile dictator himself or is it only an either / or, one thing or the other type of situation?

  9. Maybe Malcolm could ask the Queen to appoint Brandis as Lord Warden of something, where he has an impressive-sounding title, can wear a fancy hat and luxuriant robes, have a role in processions, but which doesn’t entail any actual work and where he will not be able to do any damage.

  10. Looks like Channel 7 news also went with the Abbott story

    Tim Lester
    Tim Lester – Verified account ‏@telester

    Abbott’s Advice; The former PM makes it clear; put me in Cabinet or I’ll keep talking. #7news #auspol

  11. Steve777:

    Brandis and Dutton, who are both incompetent beyond belief, both remain in the ministry because Turnbull doesn’t have the authority to replace them. I know it’s been done so many times in the past, but inducements of prestigious appointments elsewhere to get an under-performer to move on just shifts the problem to others/other sector. And when you’re dealing with the level of incompetence of the likes of Brandis and Dutton, just imagine the stuff ups that can be wrought.

    Both really need to be sacked from the ministry in the hopes they resign from parliament.

  12. ROFLMAO! Bring back the 2014 Abbott/Hockey Budget!

    Oh, yes please! Bring it on, Malcolm! Bring. It. On!

    Combine it with a $50 Billion tax giveaway to Liberal mates and watch the arse drop out of their polling numbers. : )

  13. Abbott’s entire post-PM career reads to me like an endless grovelling plea for someone, anyone, to tell him that he matters and his rule was not a failure.

    As for Turnbull and Castro, possibly nothing is the best thing to say. Those politicians who have spoken have generally either gushed over a leader with a dire human rights record on the left, or made hypocritical comments about human rights on the right.

  14. Kevin Bonham

    Abbott’s entire post-PM career reads to me like an endless grovelling plea for someone, anyone, to tell him that he matters and his rule was not a failure.

    Hard to disagree with your “reading”.

  15. I heard Abbott interviewed on ABC Newsradio this morning. He actually sounded calm and reasonable. He said the Government needs to be open with the public with what needs to be done.

    What Abbott thinks needs to be done – basically dismantle what’s left of the postwar settlement, suppress wages and conditions, allow the big end of town, especially extractive industries, to let it rip, to legislate to impose 1950s social values and wind back multiculturalism – is very different from what I think needs to be done, I am happy to let him speak honestly and try to convince us.

    However, at this point, Abbott should have apologised for lying about his true intentions before the 2013 election, revealed in all their horror in the 2014 Budget. He told us he was going to fix everything by abolishing the carbon tax, the mining tax and stopping the boats. He wasn’t going to cut anything except the so
    rt of ‘culture war’ stuff where his base was egging him on.

    Liberal’s – please restore Tony Abbott. Then enjoy several terms in Opposition.

  16. One has to marvel at the sort of collective amnesia abroad in the electorate that Abbott deludes himself with and which predicates his increasingly feeble and laughable attempts to wheedle his way back into power, any power!

  17. Agree whole heartedly with KB’s take on Abbott’s groveling. I suspect we’ll face the same with Turnbull post his PMship, since it appears his sole raison d’etre is to be ‘the man’. For both, their perception of legacy has nothing to do with policy achievement but rather to be remembered with ‘acclamation’

  18. No conservative would believe that Tony ABbott is aiming for the PM job again.
    The only reason M. Turnbull would invite him to a senior ministry position would be if he thought he would reclaim lost conservative votes and get back up in Newspoll.

    That is what he is pondering. Not whether a reshuffle would work, and if TA can fit in given that Bishop and Morrison hate him, but whether he would regain lead over Labor in Newspoll if he did have TA in a senior position.

    It’s a pickle for Mr Turnbull. Personally, I think TA should quit the LNP . No conservative wants to see him beg for a more interesting job. As with Kevin Rudd and J. Gillard, there is no reason to show much respect for the knifer/usurper. Have some self respect instead.

  19. [One has to marvel at the sort of collective amnesia abroad in the electorate that Abbott deludes himself with and which predicates his increasingly feeble and laughable attempts to wheedle his way back into power, any power!]

    So true C@T

  20. Pettyone

    No conservative would believe that Tony Abbott is aiming for the PM job again.

    And no intelligent person would doubt it.

  21. Player One
    Tony Abbott is a conservative. I am a conservative. You are a socialist, very left of the spectrum.

    Of the two of us, in all due respect, I am more likely to understand what is happening here.

  22. Gee ABC really have/had a hard on for this Crowded House “reunion” concert haven’t they. I mean CH had about 3 decent songs but were they really worthy of all this air time?
    The way ABC covered it you would have been forgiven for thinking the Beatles were coming back (well, Paul and Ringo).

  23. Henry:

    I loved Crowded House when they were around, but I agree, this level of fawning adoration for their reunion is reaching similar levels Ch9 displayed for John Farnham’s endless farewell concerts.

  24. Agreed pretty one. Abbott should quit the liberal party.
    There is a monastery with a spartan single bed with his name on it, somewhere.

  25. Victoria,

    Interesting that Senator X. thinks everything is going well.

    He may be getting a tummy rub from Malcolm atm but the main game is and will continue to be what Barnaby wants.

    He has made a promise to irrigators and farmers up river that they will be looked after ie no extra water will be released. His party room is right behind him and I would be very surprised if Joyce and the Nats are prepared to give any ground at all. If they do they will be regarded as weak. This has a long way to go and both X. and Joyce have little room to move and if either gives ground they will be hammered and lose a great deal of credibility.

    Interesting week ahead.

    Cheers and a great night to all.

  26. The ABC Confessions are going down the low road of just chasing ratings and relevance against the channel nines and sevens of this world. It’s not their remit nor their charter and is pointless. It’s not like they can milk the advertising dollars.

  27. Henry:

    Indeed. Why the ABC sees it necessary to ape the commercial media has been the burning question for yonks now. It’s very frustrating.

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