Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: August-September 2016

Aggregated Newspoll breakdowns find nothing too remarkable going on beneath the surface of the three polls it has published since the election.

The Australian has published the regular Newspoll breakdowns by state, gender, age and capitals/non-capitals, aggregating all the polling the organisation has conducted since the election – a smaller than usual amount, since the pollster took the better part of two months to resume post-election. The results suggest a bit of slippage for the Coalition since the election in South Australia, but essentially no change in the other four mainland states. This is an opportune moment for me to apologise for not having reactivated BludgerTrack over the past week as promised, but the availability of this new data means the delay is probably for the best. It will positively definitely happen later this week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,633 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: August-September 2016”

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  3. Adrian
    Yes, thought Weatherill was excellent this morning. I really admire that he can talk so softly and politely to a dickhead asking stupid, loaded, repetitive questions.

  4. Who needs climate scientists and civil engineers when Turnbull, Frydenberg and Uhlman are fixing global warming with a admixture of bellowing and bullshit?

  5. trog sorrenson @ #1384 Thursday, October 6, 2016 at 8:48 am

    Uhlmann is still pursuing wind power as the cause of the blackout without being in posession of all the facts.
    http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/aemo-report-into-sa-blackout-raises-questions-answers-none-55986
    The big issue is the grid. Maybe Uhlmann could comment on how the privatisation of the grid by the Libs, aided and abetted by Xenophon, is going to complicate its required upgrade, without the SA power consumer being taken to the cleaners by the offshore private owners.

    The simple answer is that Ulhamnn, Ulhammnne , Ulhamnne the libelra lieberal spoke person masking as an alleged reporter is throwing the brown stuff in bucketloads so that when the grid is gold plated at the expense of the SA customers a handy victim will be available to blame. This is not miss reporting but spin for an industry that has failed. How much is ughhhman getting!?

    The report indicates that 318mW of wind dropped off line prior to loss of total supply. It is not clear what caused this loss but my guess is that the power poles falling over had a large hand in it. Privatisation has struck again

  6. Just read Grattan’s article linked by BK, about Gleeson/Brandis/Dreyfus.

    What an effing fraud she is. I’ve regularly thought that as I listen to her with FKelly most days. She talks with this per-swade-oh (to quote Chapelli) authoritative voice but presents zero insight or analysis of the issue of the day.

    As I listen I think how powerful brand names are ….. evidently at some time in the past she was so good as to be able to create her brand, which is evidently still of value despite habitually producing crap.

    As to today’s article in The Conservation, how amateur is that. It is a mere descriptive piece which anyone who has quickly perused even a tabloid coverage of the matter (and has the writing skills of a 10 year old) could write.

    No critical analysis, no insights, no attempt to summarise or evaluate the relative merits of each side, no attempt to hazard a guess as to where it might all end up.

    Buggered if I know why she is considered a senior member of the CPG.

  7. Good Morning

    Its going to be a very bad week for the LNP in parliament. No wonder Turnbull has scheduled it to sit so rarely.

    Banks RC Calls as farce committee increases transparency of the need for one.
    Marriage Equality
    Wind power not blowing over transmission towers will also feature.
    Senator George Brandis being done slowly by Mr Dreyfus.
    Still questions about Mr Roberts.
    Not many questions but the elephant of the budgie nine and the affect on morale of the LNP
    The ITS ON theme of Mr Abbott talking about coming back.

    Thats what we know about.

    It seems having parliament sit so little is the first good political judgement call of Mr Turnbull I can point to.

  8. Dear Mr Uhlmann

    No one said you were heretic. No one said they thought you should be burnt at the stake.

    A lot of people, who are far more knowledgeable in this field than you are, said you were wrong.

    It’s a different thing.

  9. ‘Clinton has had Ebola for years. Everyone knows that. Plus Asian Bird Flu.’

    Join the dots – she was in charge of Foreign Affairs, she travelled to these areas.

    Not only is she a carrier of these diseases, she is the one responsible for introducing them to other countries.

    Of course, the CIA have been paid off by the Clinton Foundation, so you won’t read about it…

  10. DTT

    I agree with you. Clinton looks very sick indeed. I think she may have already passed away.

    If you look closely at her body double around the eyes you will see that her eye make-up is Azure Blue whereas HC always prefers Electric Indigo Blue. That’s the giveaway IMHO.

    Also if you noted how she shook hands with Trump after the debate, she got up very close too him, right in his face. I think that she has been schooled to do this, since his short range vision is very poor and up close he can’t see that it’s not her. Had she leaned over to shake hands say from a meter or so, he’d have gelled to what’s going on.

    I’ve always said you just can’t trust yanks.

  11. Daretotread @ 9.13am: Don’t overlook the possibility that you are just describing an organisational process. I wouldn’t be at all surprised (though I don’t know) if it has been standard operating procedures for the Secret Service to have a hospital gurney at hand ever since the shootings on the campaign trail of Bobby Kennedy and George Wallace.

  12. I missed Uhlmann’s latest. Sounds like that was a good thing.

    I agree with all those that say he should resign. The bias so blatant that I think even Guthrie is going to have to ask him resign if she wants any credibility for future coverage in favour of the LNP.

    The BBC swing to the right worked because they did not junk facts just changed the bias. Of course it helps that Cameron was a climate believer and got things like Marriage Equality through.

    May’s populism is going to be a challenge for the BBC just as the populism of Turnbull in following the likes of Roberts views on climate change are.

  13. Trump travels everywhere with a bodyguard. Obviously he expects to get shot.

    Now, that’s not a problem if he gets shot in the head, because no one would notice any difference, but what if he gets shot somewhere important, like his right arm? He won’t be able to sign anything official, so government will be frozen.

    Not a problem if he avoids being shot in the first two years, of course.

  14. An ambulance is a routine part of the Presidential motorcade. I remember mention of it with one of the Presidential visits to Canberra.

  18. Daretotread

    However when a candidate for high office travels with a hospital gurney and this is taken back stage before a rally,

    Do we know she travels with it? I saw a video of a gurney being taken backstage, but I don’t know what that proves. There would be many people backstage and one of them might have been sick. Maybe there are paramedics on hand at rallies as a routine for anything that might happen to anyone.

    Following that gurney being taken backstage, Clinton came out for her speech and looked perfectly well. Let’s not get excited about this yet.

  19. psyclaw
    #1410 Thursday, October 6, 2016 at 10:07 am
    Recently while waiting patiently at the local public hospital and seated a couple of metres from a TV tuned to the “Today” show we (me and Bobby McGeee – actually Barry) were regaled with and brought right up to date with “beauty products”.
    Have you had a similar experience to give such insight into the various eye makeup products available.
    I am in awe. I used to do lippy for my wife but was banned after doing various face makeup. Far too heavy handed.
    Off for a patrol of the various unsuspecting folk at the local shopping centre. I will see my favourite receptionist (Doctor’s) and ask for a re appraisal of my life and love lines. I am not sure that the poor girl looks forward to these sessions.
    If you have further information regarding the back from the dead Hillary then don’t be shy I would love to hear it so as to be able to pass it on to the favourite daughter (who cleverly never listens to such rubbish). One can only try – and being able to pop in a “you never listen to me” is balm to the soul.
    This has turned into a complete load of balderdash and should suit the general tenor of the day. Have a rewarding and joy filled day filled with laughter and song. 😎

  20. ‘I agree with all those that say he should resign. The bias so blatant that I think even Guthrie is going to have to ask him resign if she wants any credibility for future coverage in favour of the LNP.’

    Let’s face it. he’ll probably get a raise or a promotion.
    Anyone who thinks that he’ll get the sack doesn’t understand the reality at the ABC these days. Plus the article is ‘trending’ on the website.
    -Push the govt line – tick
    -Annoy the lefties – tick
    – Generate lots of hits – tick.
    Well done Chris.

  22. The USA is a land of great conspiracy theories.

    JFK features in two movies playing on that theme recently.

    This with James Franco and excellent watch if you have not seen it.
    http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2879552/

    And the Xmen franchise beginnings trilogy explains the bullet movement by propositioning it was Magneto.

    In the USA you will never be short of conspiracy theories.

  25. Kay Jay

    I expect your excursion will be to Jesmond Centre or Waratah Village, where I spent 3 hours yesterday waiting for my car at a nearby auto electrician.

    I had an extended visit to Gloria Jeans there where I caught up on my reading of tabloid trash and enjoyed a long cuppa (with raison tost of course).

    I was richly entertained by the 2 young kids of the Asian proprietor telling me of their school experiences (aged 4 and 8) …. their were delightful Aussies, with originating genes from somewhere over the sea, like most of us.

    It is worth the price of a cuppa to chat with them ….. apparently they are ensconced there for the whole school holidays.

    Enjoy your outing.

  26. NateSilver538: Each of these outcomes now about equally likely:
    —Clinton landslide (8+ point win)
    —Obamaish win (4-7 points)
    —Narrow Clinton win
    —Trump win

  27. billclinton: Congratulations, Mr. President! This is a big moment for our planet. twitter.com/POTUS/status/7…

    POTUS: Thank you to every nation that moved to bring the Paris Agreement into force. History will judge today as a turning point for our planet.

  29. ‘NateSilver538: Each of these outcomes now about equally likely:
    —Clinton landslide (8+ point win)
    —Obamaish win (4-7 points)
    —Narrow Clinton win
    —Trump win’

    Is it just me, or does that make absolutely no sense?

  30. It’s not so much that I am disappointed with Turnbull, yes to some extent, it’s more that I’m disappointed with the governments and oppositions generally. Heaven knows we badly need half decent governments and oppositions and yet we have both who have forgotten what they were elected to do.

  31. BK,
    In that Kudelka cartoon there are ten of the miscreants in the Malaysian dungeon. I thought there were nine of them. Are they now to be referred to as The Trunks Ten?

  33. Adrian.

    Its how Silver posted it. This is the tweet before that one.
    NateSilver538: The short version: Western PA and Ohio are becoming more Republican, Eastern PA more Democratic.

    As you can see its a stand alone tweet

  36. psyclaw @ #1425 Thursday, October 6, 2016 at 10:43 am

    Kay Jay
    I expect your excursion will be to Jesmond Centre or Waratah Village, where I spent 3 hours yesterday waiting for my car at a nearby auto electrician.
    I had an extended visit to Gloria Jeans there where I caught up on my reading of tabloid trash and enjoyed a long cuppa (with raison tost of course).
    I was richly entertained by the 2 young kids of the Asian proprietor telling me of their school experiences (aged 4 and 8) …. their were delightful Aussies, with originating genes from somewhere over the sea, like most of us.
    It is worth the price of a cuppa to chat with them ….. apparently they are ensconced there for the whole school holidays.
    Enjoy your outing.

    Gasp…. Gloria Jeans? Crap coffee plus links to fundy nutters associated with Hillsong.
    Your observation about the kids is interesting and I have observed similar at various places with Asian proprietors who bring their kids along. Kids with broad Aussie accents, parents sounding like just off the boat,

  37. guytaur @ #1423 Thursday, October 6, 2016 at 10:36 am

    Sorry The title of the movie is 11.22.63 in that link

    It’s not a movie but a mini-series. The only place it’s available in Australia is the Stan streaming service.

    Because it involves time-travel it’s far fetched, however if you suspend your disbelief it is not a bad show.

    SPOILER ALERT!

    The main character has to make a couple of attempts to get it right, but he does manage to successfully prevent the assassination of JFK. When he returns to his own time, he finds a desolate wasteland where society has totally broken down. So, he goes back in time again and allows JFK to get shot. When he returns to his own time all is good again.

    It’s well acted and worth a watch as long as you can suspend your disbelief, as you have to with all films/shows about time travel.

  38. Adrian all that tweet is saying is that basically there is a 25% chance for each of a big Clinton win, a comfortable Clinton win, a tight Clinton win and a Trump win.

  39. Hi Everyone,

    Just got back from a media free holiday. JUst catching up on whats been happening while I was away. I notice there have been 81 Submissions published now regarding the Senate Inquiry into the Australian Census now. I have yet to read any yet but notice quite a few from organisations inclusing the ABS. I will be interested to see their report and information to be gained from it.
    http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Economics/2016Census/Submissions

    I also just saw there has been a couple of major breaches reported this week regarding Public Service databases and Public Service Census Data. Privacy concerns are once again substantiated. Prevention is required rather than she’ll be right mantras.

    96,000 public servants in new data breach

    The federal government is caught up in a second data privacy scare, this time involving a massive data-set on more than 96,000 of its public servants amid fears their confidential information might not be secure.

    In the second potentially serious Commonwealth data breach to become public in less than a week, the public service’s workplace authority has confirmed that it has withdrawn the data gathered in its massive annual employee census from public view.

    It is feared that identification codes for departments and agencies could be used to identify the individual public servants who filled in the census, the largest workplace survey undertaken in Australia, on condition of anonymity.

    The data has been taken down from official websites to be washed of any features that could be used to breach the privacy of government officials.

    But the Australian Public Service Commission has confirmed the data-set was downloaded nearly 60 times before the take-down, meaning the raw information is in circulation with no way to control how it is used or distributed further.

    More: http://www.theage.com.au/national/public-service/96000-public-servants-in-new-data-breach-20161004-grul2p.html

  40. Chris Uhlmann admits to trolling.

    Chris UhlmannVerified account
    ‏@CUhlmann
    This should keep the pitchfork crowd busy for days. Knock yourselves out.

  41. adrian @ #1434 Thursday, October 6, 2016 at 11:12 am

    I know Guytaur, but it still doesn’t make any sense to me, irrespective of who posted it.

    I thought so too initially, but with four possibilities each has a 1/4 chance of occurring. Since three of them are a Clinton win and only the one a Trump win, that corresponds with the model’s roughly 75% probability of a Clinton win.

  42. Is it just me, or does that make absolutely no sense?

    Pretty much. Sounds like he’s saying “Clinton has a 75% chance of winning, but damned if I can be bothered to use any of my modeling and analytical skills to predict a specific outcome; so let’s just say Clinton may win ‘small’, ‘medium’, or ‘large’, and since that divides evenly into 75% let’s just go ahead and call each outcome equally probable”.

    Has the ABS been “massaging” housing data

    It’s not all bad news. I got the senate committee to add my response to the ABS’s submission as an attachment to the original submission. Maybe they’ll actually get held to account on something.

  43. I don’t pay any attention to Nate Silver or any of those so called experts. I have made my own algorithm out of plastiscine and bits of straw and it predicts exactly what I want it to, so it’s obviously sound.

  46. Zoomster
    I don’t pay any attention to Nate Silver or any of those so called experts. I have made my own algorithm out of plastiscine and bits of straw and it predicts exactly what I want it to, so it’s obviously sound.”
    I’m sure it’s impressive, but I doubt your plasticine+straw model has the same track record in predicting election results as Nate Silver’s model.

  47. Kakuru

    It has a built in retrospectivity function, which automatically traces any comment I’ve made on the internet and corrects it to agree with the final outcome.

  48. zoomster

    You know your plasticine algorithm will be more accurate because it takes into account the body double and the shades of lipstick 🙂

  50. “7NewsSydney: .@KylieMinogue & @joshuasasse won’t marry until after same sex marriage is legalised in Australia. @sunriseon7 #sun7 snpy.tv/2cTl0YA”
    Ha I knew it all along! Kylie Minogue is actually a man!

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