The Australian has published the regular Newspoll breakdowns by state, gender, age and capitals/non-capitals, aggregating all the polling the organisation has conducted since the election – a smaller than usual amount, since the pollster took the better part of two months to resume post-election. The results suggest a bit of slippage for the Coalition since the election in South Australia, but essentially no change in the other four mainland states. This is an opportune moment for me to apologise for not having reactivated BludgerTrack over the past week as promised, but the availability of this new data means the delay is probably for the best. It will positively definitely happen later this week.
Actually, I will quickly TM the retrospectivity bit…I think it will make my fortune.
adrian @ #1429 Thursday, October 6, 2016 at 10:59 am
dan gulberry @ #1437 Thursday, October 6, 2016 at 11:17 am
To save you all time, Red Dwarf solved the JFK issue years ago.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6naJ08Tskk
guytaur
And I stand corrected as well. Stan isn’t the only place to watch it. It’s also available on dvd and blueray from all good outlets.
Josh may be a woman!
‘Adrian all that tweet is saying is that basically there is a 25% chance for each of a big Clinton win, a comfortable Clinton win, a tight Clinton win and a Trump win.’
Geez, I know that is what he’s saying! But that doesn’t make any sense. Might as well say he has no idea who’s going to win, but it’s more likely to be Clinton.
psyclaw
#1425 Thursday, October 6, 2016 at 10:43 am
Waratah Village.
I like to promenade with the favourite daughter. Usually quite a few mums with little children. Some shoppers with dogs of various sizes and ages. People dressed in costumes applicable to different ethnic origins.
The people I talk to in the retail business often say it’s good to see a smiling face because there are so many angry ones. We do our best and if anybody doesn’t like it well then f**kem or maybe not. Little kids, no matter the origin, are a great delight as you mentioned. I loved seeing the littlies the other day while visiting the child care run by senior daughter. Hooroo 🙂
Shorten presser on end of car manufacturing now.
Sorry Adrian what you want is a political commentator who makes sense? 🙂
Nothing to see here. Scroll on by.
TheAusInstitute: 60% of SA power comes from fossil fuels. While there’s no evidence coal & gas caused the blackout, we can’t say for sure. #notrulingitout
Reading Niki Savva’s book (as I am, a couple of pages at a time) one thing that sticks out is that all the dysfunction, back-stabbing, plotting, scheming and outright bastardry I (and many, many others) thought was happening was happening. If anything else it was worse than most of us imagined.
Yet at the time it was all denied, palmed away, or blamed on Labor being just as bad as the Libs were. We were told soberly by “senior journalists” that the government needed more time to fix Labor’s mess, but otherwise it was doing just fine. Abbott was now a statesman. Turnbull had buckled under and had given up his leadership ambitions (because there just wasn’t any chance of him taking over, not after Rudd-Gillard-Rudd, no party would ever be that stupid again). Triumph after triumph was trotted out as signifying the grown-ups were back in charge. Labor was a rump, Shorten was a loser who would sink without trace after TURC had finished with him, Albo was on the march etc. etc. etc.
And it was all bullshit.
Either these turkies believed it, or they were just regurgitating the lines fed by them.
“How would you like me to put this in my column?” they would ask.
“Pretty much just the way we’ve written it down for you,” came the reply.
What Savva’s book really tells us is that the perception we had of the shitfight inside the Liberals was almost perfectly accurate.
At least Savva makes no bones about her affiliations with the Right. But remember when we all used to say that Mark Simkin was an Abbott stooge? Well, who did he leave the ABC and go to work for?
Incidentally, Simkin gets no mention at all in Savva’s book. Professional jealousy, I guess.
adrian @ #1455 Thursday, October 6, 2016 at 11:34 am
That’s precisely what he is saying. He gives Clinton a ~68% chance of winning. Not that she WILL win, just there’s more probability of it.
Wow Mr Shorten gets to make a closing statement as journos run out of questions
BB
Simkin update:
He’s now in Turnbull’s office after a stint of working for Christian Porter.
LaborHerald: “Tomorrow, the unimaginable is happening. The last Ford Falcon to be built in Australia will roll off the assembly lines” @billshortenmp
LaborHerald: “It is the end of over half a century of proud Australian car manufacturing.”
@billshortenmp #auspolLaborHerald: “Turnbull has had nothing to say about protecting blue collar… value adding manufacturing jobs in Australia.” @billshortenmp #auspolLaborHerald: “We are committed to saving the Australian apprenticeship system, to putting our public TAFE back at the top” @billshortenmp #auspolLaborHerald: There are grave concerns that the AG has misled Parl & the scandal will not stop until Turnbull shows some action – @billshortenmp #auspolLaborHerald: “Turnbull govt needs to do more to help our small & medium-sized manufacturing businesses transition to find new markets” @billshortenmpLaborHerald: “the Turnbull govt needs to prioritise the employment of Aussie apprenticeships on the big infrastructure projects” @billshortenmp #auspol
Sorry stuffed the formatting in last post
Welcome back, Nicole!
I’ve tried to carry the flag in your absence, but I’ve been busy myself with sundry holiday activities.
Have you noticed recently how the #CensusFail twitter feed has been hijacked by people who seem to be ABS staffers keen to promote the competence and relevance of the ABS? In the light of stories like this … http://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/buying/first-home-buyer-error-that-may-have-changed-history/news-story/c9d2ac14578322c800686d4147927c0c … it’s kind of amusing!
If you Greenies can’t even look after text formatting, how can you ever manage an electricity network?
adrian @ #1429 Thursday, October 6, 2016 at 10:59 am
Adrian
The way Five Thirty Eight works is to run 20,000 simulations of the election result when each new piece of data (poll result) is added. Technically, what he is saying is that 25% of the simulations show a Trump win, 25% show a narrow Clinton win and so forth.
It equates to a 75% chance of a Clinton victory, with possible outcomes ranging from a massive thumping to just getting the 270 electoral college votes needed.
Zoomster,
“I don’t pay any attention to Nate Silver or any of those so called experts. I have made my own algorithm out of plastiscine and bits of straw and it predicts exactly what I want it to, so it’s obviously sound.”
This made me laugh. Love your sense of humor.
So, there you have it, a 25 per cent change of the collapse of the world’s economic and military hegemon and thermonuclear destruction soon afterwards. I’m gonna sleep well tonight.
A R
Good work! I believe the inquiry has not yet decided whether or not to have public hearings. I hope they do so, so that we can all get to hear the ABS respond to the many discrepancies in their various public pronouncements.
player one @ #1467 Thursday, October 6, 2016 at 11:50 am
How untimely that such an error in statistics leading up to the election should help the Libs and not Labor. Damn. The truth and statistics regarding the truth are rarely ever kind to the LNP are they.
I just downloaded a whole heap of submissions to the senate inquiry from organisations but am heading out for a while. Are there any submissions worthy of note that you have read? I will check back in on my return.
Btw, I have no correspondence from the ABS whatsoever even though I did not complete my Census. Seems a little odd. I expected at least some.
Ford announced they were closing their plants in Australia while JG was PM. Don’t think this one is down to the current government.
Gasp…. Gloria Jeans? Crap coffee plus links to fundy nutters associated with Hillsong.
Yep. I’ll do almost anything for a coffee. But walking into a Gloria Jeans ain’t one of them.
BB
That is why they want ‘batteries’ – You put them in one way and they don’t work?
Then just flip them the other way.
“Electricity Networks for Dummies”.
ratsak @ #1475 Thursday, October 6, 2016 at 12:06 pm
The only other serious contender for the ‘worst coffee in Australia’ title is Starbucks.
The owner of Gloria Jeans bought the unit I was renting in 2001 for his mother and turfed me out. He was very nice the way he went about it though. He didn’t charge me the last months rent so I could use it for removalist costs. I found such good will unusual.
‘If you Greenies can’t even look after text formatting, how can you ever manage an electricity network?’
Next they’ll be burning people at the stake for being heretics against the cause of renewable energy.
Bolt basically saying Brandis has to go. He’s pretty friendless, mainly because he’s such a useless dickhead. Still my vote for worst Lib Minister.
Sadly, no-one resigns for misleading parliament anymore.
Re JFK movies I can recommend Parkland, it is a by the book (non tinfoil hat) portrayal but still seems new.
Jackie Weaver is excellent as Oswald’s mother.
DavidWH
The Gillard govt made a deal with Ford and Holden not to close as I recall??? When Abbott came in, all bets were off and the Libs decided to let them drown (I don’t know whether this was a good or bad thing … just that ALP tried to save the industry and Libs decided not to).
On the Nate Silver thing:
The outcome will depend on a few states (just like it does here with electorates). Currently there are several important states sitting on a relative knife’s edge even though the popular vote is overwhelmingly for Clinton overall.
Making a definitive prediction is fraught with danger. So 75% probability leaves the door open for an upset … especially this far out.
Bolt basically saying Brandis has to go. He’s pretty friendless, mainly because he’s such a useless dickhead. Still my vote for worst Lib Minister.
Sadly, no-one resigns for misleading parliament anymore.
Being a useless dickhead is a KPI for Liberal Ministers I thought.
As for being the worst of them it might be my personal antipathy but I can’t think of anyone that has is taken as seriously despite having achieved nothing but disasters as Pyne. That grub is surely the lower bound of uselessness in a minister. Malcolm Roberts would be hard pressed to be worse.
But tbf Diogs it would be about a 32 way photo finish with a short half head separating the field.
jenauthor @ #1482 Thursday, October 6, 2016 at 12:30 pm
Hi Jen
DW is right about Ford. Pulled the plug in the first half of 2013 according to a fairly brief Google search. It was Holden and Toyota who pulled the plug under the Liberals, Holden famously after Hockey told them, in not so many words, to eff off because they were not going to get any assistance from the Government. Toyota, because of its dependence on parts manufacturers that could not remain in business supplying only one car manufacturer, pulled the plug soon after.
jenauthor @ #1482 Thursday, October 6, 2016 at 12:30 pm
Wouldn’t that be Holden and Toyota?
Then that boofhead Hockey taunted Holden in Parliament and they decided to quit.
To all those claiming that Nate Silver is giving Trump a 25% chance of winning, why doesn’t he just say that.
Stating that there is equal chance of 4 wildly divergent outcomes happening is just pure bullshit.
Like me stating that there is an equal chance of Gloria Jeans coffee being:
a) Totally undrinkable
b) Barely tolerable
c) Ok
d) Best coffee I’ve ever had
Has there ever been a less effective, more pompous AG than Brandis? (honest question!). We have bespoke bookshelves, sage advice on the unconstitutionality of plain packaging laws, the whole East Timor raid debacle, diarygate and now open war with the Solicitor General. This is a guy who had such a stellar legal career that he was appointed SC 6 years AFTER he quit practicing law despite not actually being shortlisted for the appointment (nothing to do with being a Senator I assume). He then pushed for the reinstatement of “QC” titles and subsequently changed his title from “SC” to “QC” for no possible reason other than hubris. A man who constantly fails, but manages to convince himself that it is always someone else’s fault – a perfect fit for the Coalition, but clearly unqualified to operate in the legal field where arguments and intellect tend to overcome pompous bullying (most of the time).
Jen,
Ford was always going, but Kim Il Carr had sorted a deal with Holden and Toyota that would have had them committing to new models post 2017 (so to about 2021 at least I think).
Abbott had cancelling that $500mil as one of his few concrete election promises and one of the even fewer he kept. Chainsaw was trying to sort another smaller deal out when Hockey basically told Holden to gagf. Once they announced the next day that they’d accept Hockey’s offer Toyota was pretty much forced to follow.
There are many many things to despise Hockey for and as many examples of his rank stupidity, but that one was a top shelf example.
I don’t think that quite fits. As I understand it, what they simulate is the electoral college, where the strength of a win is determined by electoral votes and not percentage points of the popular vote. While it’s possible (or probable, even) that 75% of the scenarios result in a Clinton win, I don’t see how you could turn the output of that model into “25% for +8 points, 25% for +5, and so on”. Clintons margins would have needed to be expressed as electoral votes for that to work (and with an 8% margin in the popular vote, Clinton’s EV margin should be at least +100 votes).
Things must be pretty bad for Brandis, as even AM had a (pretty bland, no sense of outrage) report on the matter this morning.
Re Brandis, don’t forget his time as arts minister and his special grants fund.
Apart from his skills identifying rodentia subspecies is there anything he has achieved?
jenauthor @ #1483 Thursday, October 6, 2016 at 12:33 pm
Nate Silver is not a political pundit. He doesn’t take numbers and add a little gut sauce to come up with a prediction. He adds gut sauce, but only in determining the value of polling companies. Which is why he ONLY provides probability, while disclosing a lot of the machinery that underpins his probability assessment, and lets others make what they like of it.
Thus he forecasts, rather than predicts, outcomes. Like the weather bureau. Although the weather bureau rounds its predictions to the nearest 10%.
If he predicted a 91% chance of a Clinton victory, he is saying that if this election was exactly replayed 100 times, Trump would win 9 times and Clinton 91 times. As the election is only played once, that translates, by his assessment, into a 9% possibility of Trump collecting the required 270 electoral college votes.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/iowa/#now
Clinton is drawing further ahead!
Hi Nicole
I’ve not read them all myself – but here are some good ones …
– Institute of Public Affairs (you know you’re in trouble if even the IPA thinks you’re incompetent!) (#34)
– Bill McLennan (#37)
– Monash Uni Faculty of Law (#48)
– Digital Rights Watch (#51)
– A R (#53)
– Electronic Frontiers Australia (#72)
– Australian Privacy Foundation (#74)
And of course, if you like a good piece of fiction, the ABS’s own submission! (#38)
Justin Gleeson, so far as I can tell, has an absolutely unblemished reputation. He really is very, very highly respected. George has picked the absolutely wrong person to get into a fight over credibility.
AR @ 12.42
The simulations are the possible combinations of electoral college votes, taking into account the data that the model has at any given time.
He represents the processed data in various ways on this page:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#electoral-vote
Halfway down you can see the various simulations.
“http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/iowa/#now
Clinton is drawing further ahead!”
At long last Iowa has caught up. It was odd (and to me inconceivable) that Clinton could be leading in North Carolina and Ohio (albeit barely) but be behind in Iowa.
Iowa was the last US state that I lived in, and I have fond memories (though not of the weather). It recently got stripped of one of its electoral college votes (from 7 to 6).
kakuru
Thursday, October 6, 2016 at 12:55 pm
“http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/iowa/#now
Clinton is drawing further ahead!”
At long last Iowa has caught up. It was odd (and to me inconceivable) that Clinton could be leading in North Carolina and Ohio (albeit barely) but be behind in Iowa.
I think NC has been shifting away from the Republicans. Given its proximity to Virginia and then North-East, perhaps it is gradually detaching economically and socially from the South.