Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: August-September 2016

Aggregated Newspoll breakdowns find nothing too remarkable going on beneath the surface of the three polls it has published since the election.

The Australian has published the regular Newspoll breakdowns by state, gender, age and capitals/non-capitals, aggregating all the polling the organisation has conducted since the election – a smaller than usual amount, since the pollster took the better part of two months to resume post-election. The results suggest a bit of slippage for the Coalition since the election in South Australia, but essentially no change in the other four mainland states. This is an opportune moment for me to apologise for not having reactivated BludgerTrack over the past week as promised, but the availability of this new data means the delay is probably for the best. It will positively definitely happen later this week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,633 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: August-September 2016”

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  1. http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton-vs-johnson

    In the 3-way split with Johnson included in the polling questions, Trump attracts less than 39% of the vote. Quite obviously, he cannot win if he actually takes such a low share. There are now very few days left before voting. Early voting has already commenced in some places. No matter how the numbers might be wrangled, it’s almost impossible to see Trump finishing in front from here. In fact, his rankings are sliding now. This could easily become a rout.

  2. Thanks guys on the clarification re Ford (that’s why I had a row of ????? – I don’t trust my memory).

    Still, it is sad that a country that is such a big car consumer per capita has to now import all our cars.

  3. I’m not taking much notice of the US election race but did hear yesterday someone being interviewed on the ABC suggesting Clinton was looking already as having 340 Electoral College votes in the ‘bag’.

  4. Hi y’all! Could a knowledgeable Bludger kindly tell me when the next Presidential Debate is scheduled? : )

    Oh, and I note that Nicole is back and still trying to gin up interest in the ‘Census debacle/Privacy fud’.

    Meh.

  5. Briefly,
    I keep wondering how Gary Johnson could even be considered as qualified to simply run for POTUS, let alone be President!

    Then, of course, my mind turns to the other guy. : )

  6. Despite his performance I think Brandis is safe. He seems to be on solid ground regarding misleading parliament based on information now released.

  7. No matter what the topic, Mark Kenny can’t help himself – a little dig at the opposition is always in order. I would have thought that ‘haughty’ and ‘puffed up’ are perfect descriptions of Brandis.

    ‘Now he is in the public dock again – haughtily accused, by a somewhat puffed-up opposition, of having misled Parliament, and in so doing having misrepresented the nation’s second law officer with whom he must work hand-in-glove, the Commonwealth Solicitor-General Justin Gleeson.’

  8. c@tmomma @ #1505 Thursday, October 6, 2016 at 1:22 pm

    Oh, and I note that Nicole is back and still trying to gin up interest in the ‘Census debacle/Privacy fud’.

    She doesn’t have to “gin up interest”. There is plenty already out there amongst people not wedded to pushing a particular political line. If you read some of the submissions you might begin to understand why.

  9. Briefly
    “I think NC has been shifting away from the Republicans. Given its proximity to Virginia and then North-East, perhaps it is gradually detaching economically and socially from the South.”

    Yep, North Carolina is slowly trending Dem. This is largely due to the influx of new voters into the state. Many of these are college educated, including those drawn to NC’s Research Triangle.
    Virginia is already solidifying into a reliable Dem state (after a long history as a deep red state). In the case of VA, the change is mostly due to the expansion of DC into northern Virginia. You can thank Big Government for turning the Old Dominion blue.

  10. Keane is scathing in today’s Crikey re. Brandis

    [
    Gleeson’s submission is damning in the detail it provides about the lack of consultation by Brandis, his office or department. But it also shows an Attorney-General’s office engaged in a haphazard, indeed chaotic, policy process. As the second law officer of the Commonwealth, Gleeson is both independent and serves a crucial purpose within government. From his submission, it is clear that — entirely, it appears at the instigation of Brandis — his relationship with the Attorney-General, as the first law officer, has badly broken down.
    ]

  11. @ Davidwh although I agree that Brandis is unlikely to be going anywhere (if he’s survived this long, it’s doubtful that one more stuff-up will bring him down), but I’m curious about the nature of the “information now released”.

    Are you referring to the report in the Australian which refers to ‘Labor’s confected outrage’ (nice bit of unbiased reporting) and relies on Brandis’ recollection to refute misleading behaviour? – “The Attorney recalled that the Solicitor was “consulted throughout the process” and he would today “check the chronology of events” to verify his memory.”

    In addition, as set out in Keane’s article today, Branis specifically tabled docs stating the Solicitor-General was consulted in the context of “Direction” – not that they discussed the general topic in vague terms prior to any Direction being drafted.

    The report in the Oz states “Senator Brandis did not present his specific proposal to Mr Gleeson for his feedback before it was imposed in May this year, but argues the legal requirement for consultation was satisfied by the November meeting at which the duo discussed the issue in broad terms.”

    Sounds to me like Brandis – even if we entirely believe his side of the story – misled parliament.

    That doesn’t really match the description of the

  12. Bemused Comrade

    With my raisin toast I had 2 cups of peppermint tea, which is my favourite. I am not a coffee afficionado and much prefer black tea or peppermint or ginger or ginger/peppermint …… delightfully refreshin.

    In Amsterdam there is a shoe and handbag museum with a lovely little cafe on the top floor overlooking a very structured and beautiful garden about the size of a tennis court. A Dutchie waitress in 2010 recommended peppermint tea and I’ve been having it ever since.

  13. The key point made by Keane on Brandis is that he tabled the direction in Parliament with an explanatory note that the SG had been consulted.
    He didn’t just respond to a question in the senate on consultation.

  14. Brandis’ argument is, basically, ‘I mentioned it in passing that I was considering it when we met 6 months ago, then I went dark about it until I made the decision to go ahead with the monumental change to a traditional practice a couple of days before the Caretaker Period commenced before the election. That’s good enough to count as ‘Consultation’ for the purpose of supporting my argument that I did not mislead parliament.’

    O………..K………then.

    Which, I think, when we consider all of the above, points to the only true talent Brandis has. That of being able to thread a legal needle in order to misconstrue any situation for his and/or the government’s benefit and to stave off controversy.

  15. ‘Uhlmann should be talking about how gas generators are screwing SA consumers, and how wind generation has actually kept peak power prices lower than they would have otherwise been.’

    Uhlmann is too busy avoiding being burnt at the stake.

  16. psyclaw @ #1515 Thursday, October 6, 2016 at 2:01 pm

    Bemused Comrade
    With my raisin toast I had 2 cups of peppermint tea, which is my favourite. I am not a coffee afficionado and much prefer black tea or peppermint or ginger or ginger/peppermint …… delightfully refreshin.
    In Amsterdam there is a shoe and handbag museum with a lovely little cafe on the top floor overlooking a very structured and beautiful garden about the size of a tennis court. A Dutchie waitress in 2010 recommended peppermint tea and I’ve been having it ever since.

    The daughter and I had a look at Gloria Jean’s establishment while shopping at the Waratah Village. It appeared to be an excellent place to spend, having raisin toast or whatever pleases.
    Little kids such as you earlier described playing chasies around the footpaths. Mums of tiny little children displaying the little darlings. We did not stop for coffee as I prefer to make my own instant at home to my own specifications.
    Time for my afternoon nap. The regimental hound is already prepared to emulate my recuperation method. Bye. 🙂

  17. There was obviously a complex sequence of events (and maybe parallel sequences of events) that led to the power blackout in SA. The fact that the PM, other politicians and various commentators whose political agendas were as obvious as their ignorance of the facts and the science, should choose to comment on what happened is execrable.

    Jay Weatherall acted with great dignity in ignoring them until the power was restored and the crisis passed.

    There is no question that there should be an independent inquiry by people who are knowledgable into what happened. And unless there was obvious malfeasance or incompetence, this inquiry should be used to inform the way forward, not to score dishonest political or policy points.

    I expected just slightly better from Turnbull. Not because he was more honourable but because I thought he would have been interested in retaining the smallest smidgen of reputation he built up before becoming PM. I get that being PM is more important than his reputation, which is why he has allowed himself to be seen to jettison everything he appeared to stand for under pressure from his party’s right wing. But this latest politically driven brain fart appeared to be without pressure, other than a random comment from Joyce. Looks like Turnbull is now a well-trained lap dog for the right wing of his party and for the shadowy wealthy interests that lie behind it.

  18. jenauthor @ #1503 Thursday, October 6, 2016 at 1:20 pm

    Thanks guys on the clarification re Ford (that’s why I had a row of ????? – I don’t trust my memory).
    Still, it is sad that a country that is such a big car consumer per capita has to now import all our cars.

    Truth is we never really had our own car industry, just subsidiaries of foreign companies which felt not the least obligation to Australia.
    I wish we could have seen a management buy-out of one of the manufacturers to become a true Australian car producer.
    We may not be able to compete with the high volume producers so would need to go for niche markets or compete on quality.
    A big ask.

  19. Regarding earlier mention of Gloria Jeans – it’s now part of ‘Retail Food Group’ which controls a host of franchises often found in shopping centres. It’s a pity that shopping centre owners often seem to prefer the franchised operators over independent businesses. Retail Food Group controls:

    Donut King
    Brumby’s Bakery
    Michel’s Patisserie
    Pizza Capers
    Crust Gourmet Pizza
    Esquires Coffee
    The Coffee Guy
    bb’s café
    Caffe Coffee
    Cafe2U
    Gloria Jean’s

  20. Very interesting article BK.
    Seems the ABS ‘error’ favoured the govt during the election campaign, a point even News Ltd is making.

  21. In the list of Brandis stuffups provided earlier by Bob’s Uncle, one that was left out was his attempted unilateral change in language to describe the status of Jerusalem, an initiative he pursued without consultation with the Foreign Minister or DFAT.

    He’s a rich source of evidence for the fact known to the wise that a person can have lots of degrees and titles and still be really dumb.

    He won’t be sacked for this, but in truth the Opposition wouldn’t want him sacked: he’s a weak Minister, and a very weak Leader of the Government in the Senate. He’s the gift that keeps on giving.

  22. Isn’t it also the case that, despite the fact we don’t build any cars anymore, the car dealers have stopped the govt allowing the importation of second hand cars from Japan (as NZ does).

  23. William
    Dutton’s stuff ups have happened with very little effort on his part, where Brandis has worked very hard on his.

  24. Funny, there is not a single reference of the landing page of the Daily Telegraph site for ‘Brandis’, ‘Attorney’ or ‘Mislead’.

    Had it been a major Labor figure accused of misleading Parliament, I imagine the Telegraph would have really wanted to shout it from the front page.

  25. My list wasn’t meant to be comprehensive, but a couple more mentioned in articles/comments today deserve another mention – the arts funding debacle, the “right to be a bigot” comments which torpedoed the Gov’s chances of changing s.18C (actually, this could be one of his few positives), and even his instance of repaying dodgy wedding travel expenses – while not unique – ranks up with the most odious:

    “Senator Brandis had told Fairfax Media that his attendance at the wedding was ”primarily a professional rather than a social engagement” in order to ”foster collaboration” with Smith over the radio presenter’s work covering then-prime minister Julia Gillard and the Craig Thomson scandal.

    Smith left Fairfax Radio after a falling out over his plans to air controversial claims about Ms Gillard while she was prime minister.”

    Yep, outstanding behaviour befitting the nation’s top jurist.

    repayment of travel costs (charged us for the costs of travelling to a shock-jock’s wedding), the whole “

  26. Looks like Turnbull is now a well-trained lap dog for the right wing of his party and for the shadowy wealthy interests that lie behind it.

    Turnbull is like an editor at a News Ltd paper. He doesn’t need to check with the boss anymore. He knows he has to just get out on the front foot with what the boss would want or he’ll be replaced with someone who will.

  27. B.K.
    Earlier on you asked whether anyone knew whether or not a class action was possible in relation to your daughter and son in laws loss of $ due to stock loss and needing to pay wages during the blackout.
    I think there was a class action following the Black Saturday fires due to one of the electricity companies being found liable due to one of their poles having caused one of the fires.
    You may need to wait until the final report on the cause/s of the blackout so it becomes more clear what entity is responsible for what part of the blackout.
    It will probably also need a law firm to gather sufficient numbers of people wanting to take action as well as doing the leg work to establish the basis for such action.

  28. C@Tmomma,
    Richard Ackland in the guardian also did a very nice skewering of Brandis. Also, I think once Dreyfus has got the bit between his teeth, he’s going to cause you grief, even if Brandis is probably safe due to Turnbull’s precarious position.

  29. Adrian:

    Stating that there is equal chance of 4 wildly divergent outcomes happening is just pure bullshit.

    All the (20,000 simulated) outcomes are spread across the same contiguous range; there is no “divergence”.

    The partitioning into four classes is according to objective criteria.

    The fact that the simulation currently results in approximately 5,000 outcomes in each of the four categories is an interesting situation with no special significance but is mentioned principally because it is interesting (partly as entertainment).

  30. I should say: the partitions are contiguous and exhaust the same continuous range.

    If I were really clever I’d get the word “coterminous” in there as well…

  31. To be fair to Dutton (and there’s not really much reason to be fair to him), but to be fair he is achieving pretty much what he’s been tasked to do. It might be a dirty job, but he’s the potato to do dirty jobs.

    Compared to his fellow ministers he’s a beacon of success. Obviously that’s largely due to his portfolio. Neo fascist bastardry is one of the very few things Libs are actually good at. He excelled at abject uselessness in Health. So it’s a lot like JBish in Foreign – the sort of job that even idiots can look good in, but it is what it is.

    You shake your head wondering how on earth a log like Dutton can be rumoured to be the Right’s new darling and candidate for at least deputy…

    …Right up to the moment you look at the alternatives. In a flock of Turkeys a Goose looks positively regal.

  32. If I were really clever I’d get the word “coterminous” in there as well…

    Google searches of the definition of coterminous reach all time record high…

  33. Adrian

    “ Stating that there is equal chance of 4 wildly divergent outcomes happening is just pure bullshit.

    It is not bullshit it is boringly straightforward.

  34. The plot thickens regarding the SA power outage. While the Murdochrasy, Uhlmann, Joyce, Turnbull etc were canning wind the reality is that SA has significant gas generation capacity. Only problem is that it was useless.
    Here is the state of gas turbines at the time of the outage:

    Nearly all the state’s gas capacity was not available:

    AGL’s Torrens Island [Gas Thermal]

    – Units A1, A2, A3, A4 and B2 – All cold (480+240MW unused capacity)

    – Units B1, B3, B4 – Running at roughly 33% capacity (delivering 250MW of 600MW spinning capacity)

    Engie’s Pelican Point [Gas Turbine]

    – Units A & B + CGST – Both Cold (160+160+165MW available capacity)

    http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/south-australia-gas-generation-needed-68026
    And they’re blaming the wind farms?
    The truth is what is needed is MORE distributed renewables and storage, not old fashioned power plants that take an age to get going.

  35. I assume everyone here read the Pamela Williams story in the Australian a few days ago, about how Photios has his hooks into Malcolm. In case you didn’t, well worth reading. This is the first sentence, for google purposes:

    When Malcolm Turnbull called a press conference in Canberra a year ago to challenge Tony Abbott, Michael Photios was neither an MP nor on the Liberal Party’s executive.

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